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Why Recessions Aren't What They Used to Be
Why Recessions Aren't What They Used to Be

Bloomberg

time12 hours ago

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Why Recessions Aren't What They Used to Be

Subscribe to Merryn Talks Money on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to Merryn Talks Money on Spotify In a US economy based on intangibles and the seemingly constant stimulus of government spending, downturns are both less common and more shallow than they used to be. This according to Vincent Deluard, director of global macro strategy at StoneX, who joins this week's Merryn Talks Money to explain his thesis. If correct, it's one that has implications for the market. If a deep recession in the US isn't likely—and assuming that everyone understands that—it becomes hard to see market corrections being as brutal as they would have been in the past.

How to Exit US Markets Amid ‘Terminal Lucidity'
How to Exit US Markets Amid ‘Terminal Lucidity'

Bloomberg

time24-05-2025

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

How to Exit US Markets Amid ‘Terminal Lucidity'

Terminal lucidity. It's the phrase used to describe a short period just before death when the terminally ill appear to recover. All too often it gives hope—irrational hope—to the soon-to-be bereaved. That's what strategist Bill Blaine reckons happened in the US stock market this week. After a torrid few months, the S&P 500 is all but evens on the year, and that's made many investors think that maybe everything's going to be fine. But the reckoning comes to us all. And the truth is that tariff chaos, ongoing stress in the bond market, the risks of stagflation and still-superhigh valuations mean that if you haven't diversified into non-US markets yet, you really should get on with it. (Not everyone agrees with this analysis, of course. Listen to Ed Yardeni on this week's Merryn Talks Money for a more cheery outlook.)

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