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The Independent
6 hours ago
- Politics
- The Independent
Here's what happens next if Trump launches his attack plan on Iran: report
President Donald Trump continues to weigh up the prospect of joining Israel's attack on Iran in an apparent attempt to prevent the Islamic Republic from developing a nuclear weapon. Israel commenced its attack, dubbed Operation Rising Lion, six days ago, killing several of Tehran's top military leaders in its first wave of airstrikes and going on to hit 1,100 targets. Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio initially denied any U.S. involvement, with the president claiming to have advised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against taking military action, preferring to continue negotiations with Iran in neutral Oman. But since then, Trump has adopted much more mixed messaging, privately agreeing on a potential plan of attack on Tuesday and telling reporters on the South Lawn of the White House on Wednesday: 'I may do it, I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do… The next week is going to be very big, maybe less than a week.' As the world awaits his decision, seven experts surveyed by Politico have given their verdicts on what they think might happen next. Former U.S. ambassador Ryan Crocker argued that America joining in Israel's operation would leave Iran with two choices: return to the negotiating table or retaliate in kind. The latter course might mean attacks on U.S. military and diplomatic targets in the region, blocking the Straits of Hormuz to drive up global oil prices, or attacking the energy infrastructure of the Arab Gulf. He pointed out that aerial bombardment alone would not be enough to conclusively curtail Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions because 'neither Israel nor the U.S. can kill all the nuclear scientists.' Crocker states that only an agreement to abandon uranium achievement could achieve that aim without broadening the conflict across the Middle East. For ex-U.S. special envoy Dennis Ross, much would depend on how precisely Washington went about bombing Iran. Targeting specific sites like the Fordo enrichment plant, situated in a mountain near Qum, might be enough to convince Iran to lower its arms and agree to further talks. However, a much broader assault, 'maybe with a regime-change objective in mind,' could leave Iran's leaders feeling 'they have little to lose and their best bet is to show they can make us pay a heavy price.' Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer observed that, so far, Iran has 'displayed significant restraint' and agreed with Ross that a strike on Fordo alone might convince it to back down militarily. He also warned about the possibility of Iran's leadership no longer staying 'coordinated' under pressure, which could see 'rogue military actors' break ranks and escalate the situation. 'It's much easier to start wars than to end them,' he observed. Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, stated that Iran is not well-positioned to respond militarily at present. Still, American airstrikes would serve as effective confirmation to the country's leaders that Washington was involved in Israel's attack all along. 'Clerical oligarchs have long memories,' he warned, pointing to the prospect of revenge served cold in the future, with American embassies, tourists and military bases all potential targets. Professor Robert Pape of the University of Chicago said he would expect the U.S. military to target Fordo and another nuclear site, Natanz, as their first order of business, but that going after further 'surprise' targets would also be a likely strategy. Foreign affairs analyst Robin Wright argued that the tension between Israel and Iran can never be resolved through armed conflict, insisting that only diplomacy can secure a lasting peace and only Washington has the power and influence to bring about that outcome. Wright also expressed concern that, so far, neither Israel nor the U.S. have expressed any long-term goals regarding Iran, with much of the language surrounding the assault ambiguous, leaving the prospect of a dangerous power vacuum being allowed to open up if they assassinate Ayatollah Khamenei, as Trump has threatened, without a clear 'end game' in sight. Arash Azizi, a journalist with The Atlantic, meanwhile, expressed confidence that Iran will ultimately choose the path of diplomacy, rather than bloodshed. 'This will fit both with the regime's rationale of wanting to preserve itself and the overwhelming sentiments on the Iranian street,' he said.
Irish Examiner
8 hours ago
- Politics
- Irish Examiner
Europe and Iran will try diplomacy as US weighs joining fight with Israel
Iran's foreign minister will meet counterparts from Germany, France and the UK in Geneva on Friday, Iranian state media and European diplomats have said. The news comes as Israeli airstrikes target Iran's nuclear and military sites, and Iranfires back. Europe's push for diplomacy is in sharp contrast to messages from Washington, with US President Donald Trump openly weighing bombing Iran and calling for the unconditional surrender of the Iranian leadership. All sides must show restraint, refrain from taking steps which lead to further escalation in the region, and return to diplomacy Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, will travel to Geneva for the meetings on Friday, the state-run IRNA news agency reported. European diplomats, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, confirmed the meetings. 'All sides must show restraint, refrain from taking steps which lead to further escalation in the region, and return to diplomacy,' a joint statement issued on Wednesday by France, Germany, the UK and the EU read. The three European countries, commonly referred to as the E3, played an important role in the negotiations over the original 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. But they have repeatedly threatened to reinstate sanctions that were lifted under the deal if Iran does not improve its co-operation with the UN nuclear watchdog. The meeting in Geneva could also provide the three European nations with a unique opportunity to reach out to Iran in what is going to be the first face-to-face meeting between Western officials and Tehran since the start of the conflict a week ago. Foreign Secretary David Lammy is meeting US secretary of state Marco Rubio in Washington on Thursday (Jonathan Brady/PA) UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy is flying to Washington on Thursday to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The US may want to use the UK-controlled base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean in a potential strike on Iran's underground nuclear facility at Fordo, but is not believed to have requested to do so yet. 'The EU will continue to contribute to all diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions and to find a lasting solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, which can only be through a negotiated deal,' Anouar El Anouni, a spokesperson for the European Commission, said. 'This is why, an intense outreach activity involving all relevant sides is currently underway to preserve room for diplomacy and create the conditions for a negotiated solution to the Iranian nuclear issue.' Germany's foreign minister has underlined European countries' willingness to talk to Iran about a solution to its nuclear programme, but says there needs to be movement from Tehran. Iran must now move urgently. Iran must take confidence-building and verifiable measures – for example, in that the leadership in Tehran makes it credible that it is not striving for a nuclear weapon Johann Wadephul said on Wednesday that the three European countries, which were part of Iran's 2015 nuclear agreement, 'still stand ready to negotiate on a solution'. But he added: 'Iran must now move urgently. Iran must take confidence-building and verifiable measures – for example, in that the leadership in Tehran makes it credible that it is not striving for a nuclear weapon.' French foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Thursday that France and European partners were ready to 'resume negotiations' with Iran. Mr Barrot did not confirm the Geneva meeting. The Iranian authorities' message was 'relatively clear: there is a willingness to resume talks, including with the United States, provided that a ceasefire can be reached', Mr Barrot said in a news conference in Paris. US President Donald Trump has given increasingly pointed warnings about America joining Israel in striking at Tehran's nuclear programme (Alex Brandon/AP) 'On our side, there is a willingness to resume negotiations, provided that these negotiations can lead to lasting, substantial steps backward by Iran regarding its nuclear programme, its ballistic programme and its activities to destabilise the region,' Mr Barrot said. Mr Trump has given increasingly pointed warnings about the US joining Israel in striking at Tehran's nuclear programme even as Iran's leader warned anew that the United States would be greeted with stiff retaliation if it attacks. A US official said on Wednesday there were no plans for US involvement in nuclear talks set between senior European diplomats and Iran in Geneva, although that could change. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, also noted that the Europeans have been wanting to play a role in the negotiations for months but have been held back by the US. That position, the official said, may be changing as the hostilities intensify.
Western Telegraph
8 hours ago
- Politics
- Western Telegraph
Europe and Iran will try diplomacy as US weighs joining fight with Israel
The news comes as Israeli airstrikes target Iran's nuclear and military sites and Iran fires back. Europe's push for diplomacy is in sharp contrast to messages from Washington, with US president Donald Trump openly weighing bombing Iran and calling for the unconditional surrender of the Iranian leadership. All sides must show restraint, refrain from taking steps which lead to further escalation in the region, and return to diplomacy Joint statement issued by France, Germany, UK and EU Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi will travel to Geneva for the meetings on Friday, the state-run IRNA news agency reported. European diplomats, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, confirmed the meetings. 'All sides must show restraint, refrain from taking steps which lead to further escalation in the region, and return to diplomacy,' a joint statement issued on Wednesday by France, Germany, the UK and the EU read. The three European countries, commonly referred to as the E3, played an important role in the negotiations over the original 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. But they have repeatedly threatened to reinstate sanctions that were lifted under the deal if Iran does not improve its co-operation with the UN nuclear watchdog. The meeting in Geneva could also provide the three European nations with a unique opportunity to reach out to Iran in what is going to be the first face-to-face meeting between western officials and Tehran since the start of the conflict a week ago. Foreign Secretary David Lammy is meeting US secretary of state Marco Rubio in Washington on Thursday (Jonathan Brady/PA) UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy is flying to Washington on Thursday to meet US secretary of state Marco Rubio. The US may want to use the UK-controlled base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean in a potential strike on Iran's underground nuclear facility at Fordo but is not believed to have requested to do so yet. 'The EU will continue to contribute to all diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions and to find a lasting solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, which can only be through a negotiated deal,' Anouar El Anouni, a spokesperson for the European Commission, said. 'This is why, an intense outreach activity involving all relevant sides is currently under way to preserve room for diplomacy and create the conditions for a negotiated solution to the Iranian nuclear issue.' Germany's foreign minister has underlined European countries' willingness to talk to Iran about a solution to its nuclear programme, but says there needs to be movement from Tehran. Iran must now move urgently. Iran must take confidence-building and verifiable measures – for example, in that the leadership in Tehran makes it credible that it is not striving for a nuclear weapon Germany's foreign minister Johann Wadephul Johann Wadephul said on Wednesday that the three European countries, which were part of Iran's 2015 nuclear agreement, 'still stand ready to negotiate on a solution'. But he added: 'Iran must now move urgently. Iran must take confidence-building and verifiable measures – for example, in that the leadership in Tehran makes it credible that it is not striving for a nuclear weapon.' French foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Thursday that France and Europeans partners were ready to 'resume negotiations' with Iran. Mr Barrot did not confirm the Geneva meeting. The Iranian authorities' message was 'relatively clear: there is a willingness to resume talks, including with the United States, provided that a ceasefire can be reached', Mr Barrot said in a news conference in Paris. US President Donald Trump has given increasingly pointed warnings about America joining Israel in striking at Tehran's nuclear programme (Alex Brandon/AP) 'On our side, there is a willingness to resume negotiations, provided that these negotiations can lead to lasting, substantial steps backward by Iran regarding its nuclear programme, its ballistic programme and its activities to destabilise the region,' Mr Barrot said. Mr Trump has given increasingly pointed warnings about the US joining Israel in striking at Tehran's nuclear programme even as Iran's leader warned anew that the United States would be greeted with stiff retaliation if it attacks. A US official said on Wednesday there were no plans for US involvement in nuclear talks set between senior European diplomats and Iran in Geneva, although that could change. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, also noted that the Europeans have been wanting to play a role in the negotiations for months but have been held back by the US. That position, the official said, may be changing as the hostilities intensify.
Indian Express
8 hours ago
- Politics
- Indian Express
Now, US wants to review students' social media accounts as visa process resumes
After a brief suspension, the United States has resumed processing student visa applications, but with a strict new condition. All applicants must now make their social media accounts public for review by consular officers, the State Department announced on Thursday. The move comes after last month's announcement by the Trump administration that had temporarily halted new appointments for student and exchange visitor visas. Now that the suspension has been lifted, the visa process is restarting, but not without new hurdles. According to the State Department, any applicant who refuses to unlock their social media accounts for public viewing could face rejection. Officials will review posts and messages for any content considered hostile to the US government, its culture, institutions, or principles. Previously, the US had already introduced some social media checks, particularly targeting returning students suspected of joining protests against Israel's actions in Gaza. But the new rule expands that inspection to all new applicants. A State Department notice made public on Wednesday confirmed that the May suspension had been revoked. However, it said that those unwilling to share their social media activity could be seen as attempting to hide something, a potential red flag during the visa screening process. One applicant, a 27-year-old PhD student from China studying in Toronto, told the Associated Press that he was relieved to finally secure a visa appointment for next week. 'I've been refreshing the website a couple of times every day,' said the student. He's aiming to begin a research internship in the US this July. Students from India, China, Mexico, and the Philippines have been closely monitoring visa portals and press briefings to track any updates. Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed the previous order, reflecting the broader Trump administration's push to tighten immigration controls. That includes not just stricter student visa rules, but also increased deportations and pressure on academic institutions. Harvard University has recently come under fire from the administration for allegedly failing to curb speech and anti-Israel protests. Separately, the US Embassy in India issued a warning to current and prospective students. It stressed that visa holders must follow all rules attending classes regularly and staying enrolled or risk losing their student status and future visa eligibility. India, now the largest source of international students in the US for the first time since 2008-09, had over 3.31 lakh students enrolled in American universities in 2024, overtaking China.
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
DR Congo and Rwanda sign draft peace agreement
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda have signed a provisional agreement aimed at stopping the conflict in eastern DRC, according to a joint statement from the two countries and the United States Department of State. The development late on Wednesday in Washington, DC, came after 'three days of constructive dialogue regarding political, security, and economic interests', the statement said. The draft agreement contains provisions on issues including disarmament, the integration of non-state armed groups and the return of refugees and internally displaced people. Eastern DRC has been riven by conflict for decades, with armed groups competing for access to natural resources. Fighting in the region escalated in January when the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group captured Goma, the mineral-rich area's largest city. A few weeks later, the group seized the strategic town of Bukavu. Rwanda denies supporting the rebels. Thousands of people have been killed in the region and hundreds of thousands of others displaced since the conflict intensified earlier this year. Several of the parties to the conflict have been accused of carrying out human rights abuses. In a report published in May, Amnesty International accused M23 of torturing and killing civilians. 'These acts violate international humanitarian law and may amount to war crimes,' Amnesty said at the time. On Monday, Volker Turk, the UN high commissioner for human rights, said that the rebels, DRC troops and allied armed groups had all carried out human rights called on all sides 'to commit immediately to a ceasefire and resume negotiations, and to respect international humanitarian and human rights law'. The US hopes to bring an end to the fighting and to unlock billions of dollars of Western investment in the eastern DRC, which has large mineral reserves including cobalt, copper, gold and lithium. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described the twin aims of peace and investment as a 'win-win'. As part of the diplomatic efforts, Massad Boulos, the US envoy to Africa, travelled to the DRC and Rwanda in April. During his visit, he urged Kigali to end its support for the M23 rebels. Although the African countries have agreed to at least six truces since 2021, none has lasted. Angola stepped down in March from its role as mediator, with the US and Qatar currently leading efforts to secure peace in the eastern DRC. The draft agreement is due to be formally signed on June 27 by ministers from the DRC and Rwanda in the presence of Rubio.
