Latest news with #Madden-JulianOscillation
News18
12-06-2025
- Climate
- News18
Monsoon Arrived 8 Days Early In Kerala, Why Has It Progressed So Slow Since Then?
Last Updated: By early June, the monsoon's pace slackened. Rainfall eased in most southern and northeastern parts of the country. Even flood-affected areas in the Northeast began to dry up. The southwest monsoon, a lifeline for agriculture and water needs, arrived with a bang but has since entered a puzzling pause. When it reached Kerala on May 24, eight days ahead of schedule, it sparked widespread celebration across the country. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) called it the earliest onset since 2009. Hopes soared as rain lashed southern parts of the country. But now, deep into the second week of June, the monsoon's momentum has mysteriously stalled, leaving much of the country grappling with heat and uncertainty. The monsoon's early entry wasn't just confined to Kerala. It simultaneously swept into Lakshadweep, Mahe, southern Karnataka, parts of Tamil Nadu, and Mizoram, an unusually widespread onset that delighted meteorologists and farmers alike. The last week of May saw intense rainfall in Kerala, with red alerts issued in multiple districts due to flooding and landslides. But by early June, the monsoon's pace slackened. Rainfall eased in most southern and northeastern parts of the country. Even flood-affected areas in the Northeast began to dry up. According to private forecaster Skymet, the monsoon's advancement has hit a temporary wall, particularly in northeastern states. Meteorologists attribute the sluggish progress to a mix of global atmospheric and oceanic shifts. The early burst was helped by favourable conditions like the active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a moving pulse of cloud and rainfall over the tropics, and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The absence of El Nino, a phenomenon that typically suppresses monsoon rains, also worked in the country's favour. But June brought a shift. The MJO lost steam, weakening the systems that propel the monsoon northward. In addition, the seasonal low-pressure area that usually drives the monsoon's inland advance remains south of its expected position, restricting rain to southern coastal regions. Despite the slowdown, the IMD has issued a new round of forecasts that may bring hope. Between June 11 and 17, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected to return to Kerala and Lakshadweep. Wind speeds may reach 60 km/h, and isolated areas could see extreme rain from June 14 to 17. However, the monsoon remains sluggish over Maharashtra, Goa, and much of the Northeast. The early-season flooding in Kerala is giving way to heat and humidity, a pattern mirrored in several parts of the country. Will Monsoon Regain Momentum? The IMD remains optimistic about the broader monsoon season. It has projected overall rainfall at 105% of the long-period average, an encouraging sign for agriculture and the economy. Yet, weather experts caution that early onset does not guarantee a successful or well-distributed monsoon. In 2009, the monsoon had also arrived early, on May 23, but June that year saw a severe 48% rainfall deficit, and August followed with a 27% shortfall. The memory of that anomaly is prompting meteorologists to urge caution amid early excitement. First Published: June 12, 2025, 14:25 IST
New Indian Express
05-06-2025
- Climate
- New Indian Express
CWRDM proposes immediate steps to face monsoon crisis in Kerala
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: With the southwest monsoon arriving earlier than usual and bringing unusually heavy rain, the Centre for Water Resources Development and Management (CWRDM) has issued urgent recommendations to tackle potential flooding and landslides in Kerala. The state witnessed one of its earliest monsoon onsets in recent years. According to CWRDM, this year's pattern—marked by intense rainfall in short bursts followed by dry spells—highlights the growing need for improved disaster preparedness and smarter water management. In just one week, from May 24 to 31, Kozhikode recorded 620 mm of rainfall—nearly 28% of the region's average monsoon total. Daily rainfall during this period crossed 60 mm, sparking fears of flash floods, waterlogging, and landslides, especially in hilly regions. 'Traditionally, Kerala's monsoon sets in around June 1. But since 1970, nearly half of the monsoons have begun in late May,' said CWRDM executive director Manoj P Samuel. 'This year's early onset is among the earliest ever—second only to May 18, 1990,' he said. Experts link this shift to warming sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea, stronger cross-equatorial winds, and global atmospheric changes such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
Indian Express
01-06-2025
- Climate
- Indian Express
Mumbai city wettest district this season so far, logs 3,025% of actual avg rainfall
With record-shattering downpour sweeping the region in May, Mumbai city district has logged excess rainfall of over 3025 per cent of its actual average rainfall for the season, making it Maharashtra's wettest district until May. Meanwhile, the Santacruz station has recorded an excess rainfall by 1945 per cent. Overall, Maharashtra recorded 'large excess' rainfall by 560 per cent until May. In what made for an unusual summer, heatwaves and above normal temperatures eluded the city in May as it started receiving unseasonal showers, followed by pre-monsoon rain, as early as May 6. After intermittent spells of moderate showers, Mumbai experienced its earliest onset of southwest monsoon in the past 75 years as torrential rainfall battered the city on May 26. Spurred by unseasonal showers and early onset of monsoon, records from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) show that Mumbai city district has recorded 'large excess' in showers by 3,025 percent while the suburban district has recorded above normal rainfall by over 1,945 percent. According to the data, the IMD's Colaba station in island city received 503.2 mm rainfall in May, as against its average of 16.1 mm rain from March to May. Meanwhile, the Santacruz observatory in Mumbai suburbs received 378.4 mm rainfall, marking a significant departure from its actual average of 18.5 mm rain for the period. For the record, this has been the wettest May month ever recorded in Colaba since 1918 while also being Santacruz' rainiest May in the past 25 years. Not just Mumbai, but the entire Maharashtra has recorded an excess of 560 per cent from its actual long-period average (LPA) until May 31. While the state typically receives an average of 26 mm rain during the months of March to May, it has recorded an average of 170.3 mm rainfall until May 31. Besides Konkan region, district-wise rain data from the IMD show that Madhya Maharashtra region has recorded an excess in showers by 457 per cent so far, while Vidarbha belt has registered excess downpour of over 481 per cent. Meanwhile, the region of Marathwada has recorded an excess of 394 per cent so far. Meteorologists have attributed the heavy showers to a combination of favourable factors ranging from an upper-level trough that ushered in heavy rain early in May to a low pressure area which developed into a well-marked LPA in the Arabian Sea after May 20. Furthermore, senior IMD scientists have also pointed to active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as well as the neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions as factors contributing to an early onset. After rainy May, the IMD has said that the city, as well as other parts of the country, will continue to receive 'above normal' rainfall in June. The above normal rain will also usher in a dip in temperatures which are likely to remain in the normal to below normal range across the region. Typically, Mumbai receives an average of 537 millimetres of rainfall in June, during which it experiences monsoon onset. On Sunday, the city and its neighbouring districts woke up to brief spells of moderate showers amid a nowcast warning sounded by the IMD at 10 am, followed by another warning at 1 pm. According to the IMD, the city will continue to experience light to moderate rainfall in the coming days with the showers slated to intensify and be accompanied by thunderstorms, from June 5. While no alerts have been issued for Mumbai, a fresh yellow alert stating the likelihood of 'thunderstorms with moderate rain and gusty winds' has been sounded in Thane for June 5.
Indian Express
30-05-2025
- Science
- Indian Express
Daily subject-wise quiz : Environment and Geography MCQs on Perito Moreno glacier, Madden-Julian Oscillation and more (Week 112)
UPSC Essentials brings to you its initiative of subject-wise quizzes. These quizzes are designed to help you revise some of the most important topics from the static part of the syllabus. Attempt today's subject quiz on Environment and Geography to check your progress. 🚨 Click Here to read the UPSC Essentials magazine for May 2025. Share your views and suggestions in the comment box or at With reference to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), consider the following statements: 1. It is a moving system of winds, clouds, and pressure that brings rain as it circles around the equator. 2. This system typically travels westward at a speed of 4-8 metres per second. 3. When MJO is in the active phase, it results in drought. How many of the statements given above are correct? (a) Only one (b) Only two (c) All three (d) None Explanation — The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24, eight days earlier than usual, although it reached Mumbai two weeks earlier on May 26. This was also the earliest monsoon to arrive in Mumbai on record. — Several large-scale atmospheric-oceanic and local causes contributed to the early monsoon onset, but the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was a crucial driver, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). — The MJO is a moving system of winds, clouds, and pressure that produces rain as it circles the equator. The phenomena is named after Roland Madden and Paul Julian, two scientists who discovered it in 1971 while working at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. Hence, statement 1 is correct. — The system normally moves eastward at a speed of 4-8 metres per second. It travels across the world in 30-60 days on average, but can sometimes take 90 days. Hence, statement 2 is not correct. — As it moves, intense MJO activity frequently divides the world into two parts: one in which the MJO is active and produces rainfall, and another in which it suppresses rainfall. MJO causes higher-than-normal rainfall during the active phase, whereas in the suppressed phase, the area receives less than average rainfall. Hence, statement 3 is not correct. Therefore, option (a) is the correct answer. The Perito Moreno glacier was in the news. It is part of: (a) Alps Mountains (b) Himalayas Mountains (c) Andes Mountains (d) Atlas Mountains Explanation — Argentina's most famous glacier, the Perito Moreno glacier, which has a surface area of 250 sq km (lies in the Andes Mountains), is crumbling. It lost a colossal block of ice, equivalent to a 20-story building, plunging 70 m into water below. — Argentina's most famous glacier, the Perito Moreno glacier, which has a surface area of 250 sq km (the total area of Patna, Bihar), is crumbling. Just weeks ago, it lost a colossal block of ice, equivalent to a 20-story building, plunging 70 m into water below. Therefore, option (c) is the correct answer. With reference to the bow echo, consider the following statements: 1. It is a line of storms, also called a squall line. 2. It is used to classify Tsunamis. Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2 Explanation — The severe storm that pounded Delhi on Sunday had a unique structure, according to weather radar imagery from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The storm resembled a crescent or an archer's bow. In technical terminology, such storm presentations are referred to as 'bow echoes'. — A bow echo is a line of storms, also known as a squall line, on radar that resembles a bow. This storm line may occasionally be embedded in a bigger squall line. Hence, statement 1 is correct. — A bow echo can range from 20 to 100 kilometres and last three to six hours. — Ted Fujita, a Japanese-American meteorologist who developed the tornadoes classification system, coined the word in the 1970s. Hence, statement 2 is not correct. Therefore, option (a) is the correct answer. Consider the following statements: Statement 1: Western Disturbances also impact the weather outside the winter season. Statement 2: In the last 70 years, Western Disturbances have become more common in May, June, and July, months where they were previously rare. Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements? (a) Both Statement 1 and Statement 2 are correct and Statement 2 is the correct explanation for Statement 1. (b) Both Statement 1 and Statement 2 are correct and Statement 2 is not the correct explanation for Statement 1. (c) Statement 1 is correct but Statement 2 is incorrect. (d) Statement 1 is incorrect but Statement 2 is correct. Explanation — Western Disturbances are rain-bearing wind systems that begin east of Afghanistan and Iran and pick up moisture from the Mediterranean, Black, Caspian, and Arabian Seas. — These are examples of extratropical cyclones caused by low-pressure zones created by the interplay of polar and tropical winds. Western Disturbances are embedded in the subtropical westerly jet stream, which is a high-altitude, fast-moving air movement that runs from west to east in the Earth's atmosphere and passes over the Himalayan and Tibetan highlands. — They are most abundant during the boreal winter months (December to March) and have an impact on the weather in India, notably the northwest, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan. — Western Disturbances are also now impacting the weather outside the winter season. In the last 70 years, they have become more common in May, June, and July, months where they were previously rare, according to the 2024 study. One reason for this trend could be the 'delayed northward retreat of the subtropical jet, which historically has occurred before the onset of the summer monsoon.' Hence, statements 1 and 2 are correct. Both Statement 1 and Statement 2 are correct and Statement 2 is the correct explanation for Statement 1. Therefore, option (a) is the correct answer. Karreguttalu Hill (KGH) region — a known stronghold of Naxalite groups was in the news. It is located in: (a) Telangana-Chhattisgarh region (b) Chhattisgarh-Madhya Pradesh region (c) Maharashtra-Karnataka region (d) Karnataka-Telangana region Explanation — The Centre stated that incidences of violence by Left Wing Extremism (LWE) have decreased to 374 in 2024 from its maximum number of 1936 in 2010. — While LWE-related violence has decreased by 81 per cent, 'the total number of deaths, including civilians and security forces, has also reduced by 85 per cent — from 1005 deaths in 2010 to 150 in 2024,' according to a government news statement. — The news release continued: 'Recently, in one of the biggest anti-Naxal operations in the country's history, security forces achieved a major breakthrough in the fight against LWE along the Chhattisgarh-Telangana border.' — It stated that a huge operation was carried out between April 21 and May 11, 2025, in the Karreguttalu Hill (KGH) region, which is a renowned stronghold of Naxalite organisations. Therefore, option (a) is the correct answer. Sorry for the inconvenience caused. All remaining questions and answers are correctly marked. Daily Subject-wise quiz — History, Culture, and Social Issues (Week 112) Daily subject-wise quiz — Polity and Governance (Week 112) Daily subject-wise quiz — Science and Technology (Week 112) Daily subject-wise quiz — Economy (Week 112) Daily subject-wise quiz — Environment and Geography (Week 111) Daily subject-wise quiz – International Relations (Week 111) Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter and stay updated with the news cues from the past week. Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – IndianExpress UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X.
Indian Express
28-05-2025
- Climate
- Indian Express
IMD Mumbai Director interview: ‘Timeline of the monsoon doesn't matter. We can expect many days of heavy to very heavy rain'
From no heat wave day to heavy pre-monsoon showers that shattered records, this May has been one for the history books for Mumbai. After experiencing light to moderate showers from the second week of the month, monsoon arrived in Mumbai with a bang on May 26, making it the earliest recorded onset in the past 75 years. With the city experiencing an early arrival of monsoon, Shubhangi Bhute, Director, IMD (Mumbai) and head of Regional Meteorological Centre for Western India, spoke to The Indian Express about the factors influencing the early arrival and what Mumbai can expect going forward. Here are the edited excerpts: Q: This year, May has been unique for the city. Why did we see such heavy pre-monsoon showers, and what led to the earliest onset of the monsoon in the past 75 years at least? Shubhangi Bhute: In May, we did not see any rise in temperatures, with temperatures remaining normal and sometimes, because of rainfall activity, we have also seen that the temperatures have dropped to 32 degree Celsius as well. This month, monsoon also set into Mumbai well in advance, making it the earliest onset in the last 75 years. Earlier, there have been only five occasions (years) when the monsoon set in May, on May 31 and May 29. As well predicted, conditions were very favourable for the early onset. This year, monsoon had set into Andaman well in advance by May 13, then it set over Kerala by May 24, and then reached Maharashtra by May 25. The monsoon onset is declared when all the criteria for the declaration are met, and these include many factors about rainfall requirements, wind field, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), among others. Besides that, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is also one of the key contributors. Earlier, MJO was in the eighth phase, and now, it is in the second phase, which is favourable for good monsoons in the Indian region. Furthermore, the neutral phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and neutral El Niño are also present. And altogether, these factors have led to the early onset of monsoon in the Indian region. Q. This time, we saw that the monsoon arrived in Mumbai very quickly, merely two days after it entered Kerala. This is in stark contrast to the normal timeline of at least 10 days. Bhute: We saw that the monsoon advanced very fast. After reaching Andaman on May 13, it entered Karwar almost a week in advance. It reached Karwar and Belgaum by May 24, and then within two days, it reached Mumbai by 26th May. Besides meeting the basic conditions for the declaration of monsoon in Kerala, the monsoon advancement also depends on two branches — the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal branches. If the Arabian Sea branch on the western coast is very active, with active systems like low-pressure areas, then the southwest monsoon starts setting in from the Arabian Sea side. However, currently, the Bay of Bengal side is very lull. This means that there is no system in the Bay of Bengal to pull the moisture, therefore, monsoon advancement has been delayed on the eastern side. Once a low-pressure area forms in the eastern branch of the Bay of Bengal, the winds will be pulled, and the monsoon will also be covered on the other coast. Presently, while the Bay of Bengal branch was lull, the Arabian Sea was very active with a low-pressure area, which contributed to the pulling in of moisture from the ocean to land. This further contributed to the early advancement of monsoon. Q: Several reports and weather observers have suggested that after the early advancement, there will be a lull in showers. What does this mean? Will the rains discontinue now? Bhute: The timeline of the monsoon doesn't matter. Even if the monsoon were to arrive in June, ahead of schedule or even if it had been delayed, it is not necessary that the city would receive heavy rains every single day. Rains during monsoon are not continuous, simple or steady, as they always depend on the systems. There will always be a variation in the quantum of rain, and there may even be days when no rainfall is registered. In Mumbai, generally August is seen as the month of dry spell when there is the least rain, and July is the wettest monsoon period, while June is the month of onset. Now that the monsoons have arrived early in May, we will observe the rain patterns this month. Q: This year, IMD has forecast above normal rains all over the country. What does this mean for Mumbai? Bhute: In the Long Range Period forecast, IMD's chart has indicated that above-normal rainfall is very likely along the west coast, particularly around the Maharashtra region. This suggests that the percentage of possibility of excess rainfall is more even in Mumbai. Q: Does this mean Mumbai can see more flash floods, as we observed on May 26 with the arrival of monsoon? Bhute: The patterns of monsoon have now changed as we receive heavy rains within a short period. While we cannot say right now whether the frequency of flash floods will be higher, we can definitely expect many days where we will receive 'heavy to very heavy rain'. As per the IMD's forecast for this season, a higher frequency of rainy days is very likely, as we can expect more 'heavy to very heavy rainfall' type of days in Mumbai. Q: IMD often draws flak for failing to issue timely forecast warnings and alerts. What makes forecasting a challenging task in a city like Mumbai? Bhute: First of all, we are in a tropical region where the frequency of weather changes is very fast. Now, in the monsoons, we expect rains from the southwesterly winds, and that has to be supported by upper air winds. While generally we get rains because of southwesterly winds, which bring moisture, and we get the convection of the rains, the changes in wind patterns and other systems happen at the micro level. Mumbai is only a 40 to 60 km patch, which is in the Arabian Sea. Compared to the larger state of Maharashtra, it is a very small stretch. It is very difficult to forecast for such a small stretch, as sub-kilometre mesoscale models are unavailable. Besides being in the tropical zone, Mumbai's proximity to the sea also means that the weather changes very rapidly. On land, we observe fixed patterns where systems generally move in a very particular manner. But in Mumbai, we will see that some parts receive rain while the other parts may remain dry and even sunny. Furthermore, while we predict and issue forecast warnings on the basis of synoptic conditions one day in advance, changes happen very fast within half an hour or in hours. Even if we look at May 26, extremely heavy rainfall occurred only in South Mumbai, while the rest of the suburbs experienced much less rain during the daytime. Within two days, the Colaba station received more than 250 mm of rainfall while the Santacruz station recorded heavy showers on the second day. Whenever we issue orange or red alerts, we mention the likelihood of rain in isolated pockets, as it is very unlikely that the entire city would receive heavy rain. Q: What is the system of issuing red alerts? Sometimes, red alerts are issued when the intensity of rain relaxes or the showers discontinue after a red warning is sounded. Bhute: For red warnings, we generally follow the orange alert. While we forecast heavy rainfall for an orange alert, the city may likely experience extremely heavy rainfall for only two hours, after which it may dry up. On May 26, too, we had issued forecasts with orange and then, red alerts, indicating that the city would receive heavy rain during the first half, following which the intensity would reduce. However, we issue our forecast warnings for a period of 24 hours, as immediately removing the red alert is not ideal. Even if the system relaxes and rains have reduced, we keep our warnings for a 24-hour period, as the systems can always intensify and bring heavy rain again. Often, it also happens that we issue our red alerts 24 hours or 48 hours in advance, but sometimes the systems can change very fast. Furthermore, it is not easy to withdraw a red alert immediately after it is issued. Our objective is that the administration and the public should not be in trouble or underprepared. If there is a possibility of rain, we can always overwarn rather than underwarn, as there should not arise a situation where our underwarning leads to a lack of adequate preparation or there is an adverse situation or mishap. Sometimes, even if we are expecting heavy rain, which can be categorised as orange, we do not remove our red alert, as extra precaution is always better.
