Latest news with #MSTMarquee
New York Post
an hour ago
- Business
- New York Post
Investors brace for oil price spike, rush to safe havens after US bombs Iran nuclear sites
A US attack on Iranian nuclear sites could push oil prices even higher and trigger a knee-jerk rush to safety, investors said, as they assessed how the latest escalation of tensions would ripple through the global economy. The reaction in Middle East stock markets, which trade on Sunday, suggested investors were assuming a benign outcome, even as Iran intensified its missile attacks on Israel in response to the sudden, deep U.S. involvement in the conflict. President Trump called the attack 'a spectacular military success' in a televised address to the nation and said Iran's 'key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.' He said the U.S. military could go after other targets in Iran if the country did not agree to peace. Advertisement Iran said it reserves all options to defend itself, and warned of 'everlasting consequences.' Speaking in Istanbul, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran was weighing its options for retaliation and would consider diplomacy only after carrying out its response. 7 President Trump called the attack 'a spectacular military success.' REUTERS Investors said they expected US involvement would cause a stock market selloff and a possible bid for the dollar and other safe-haven assets when major markets reopen, but also said much uncertainty remained. Advertisement 'I think the markets are going to be initially alarmed, and I think oil will open higher,' said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital. 'I think the uncertainty is going to blanket the markets, as now Americans everywhere are going to be exposed. It's going to raise uncertainty and volatility, particularly in oil,' he added. One indicator of how markets will react in the coming week was the price of ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency and a gauge of retail investor sentiment. Advertisement 'We don't have any damage assessment and that will take some time. Even though (Trump) has described this as 'done', we're engaged,' Spindel said. Ether was down 8.5% on Sunday, taking losses since the first Israeli strikes on Iran on June 13 to 13%. 7 Iran has warned of 'everlasting consequences' over the U.S. attack. via REUTERS Most Gulf stock markets, however, seemed unconcerned by the early morning attacks, with the main indexes in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait up slightly or flat. Israel's Tel Aviv main index was at an all-time high. Advertisement A key concern for markets centers around the potential impact of Middle East developments on oil prices and thus on inflation. Rising inflation could dampen consumer confidence and lessen the chance of near-term interest rate cuts. Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at equity research firm MST Marquee in Sydney, said Iran could respond by targeting American interests in the Middle East, including Gulf oil infrastructure in places such as Iraq or harassing ship passages through the Strait of Hormuz. 7 Traders are bracing for a rocky day on Wall Street when markets open Monday. AFP via Getty Images The Strait of Hormuz lies between Oman and Iran and is the primary export route for oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait. 'Much depends on how Iran responds in the coming hours and days, but this could set us on a path towards $100 oil if Iran respond as they have previously threatened to,' Kavonic said. While global benchmark Brent crude futures have risen as much as 18% since June 10, hitting a near five-month high of $79.04 on Thursday, the S&P 500 has been little changed, following an initial drop when Israel launched its attacks on Iran on June 13. 7 Brent crude futures have risen as much as 18% since June 10, Getty Images Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said oil prices would likely spike before leveling off in a few days as the attacks could lead Iran to seek a peace deal with Israel and the U.S. Advertisement 'With this demonstration of force and total annihilation of its nuclear capabilities, they've lost all of their leverage and will likely hit the escape button to a peace deal,' Cox said. Economists warn that a dramatic rise in oil prices could damage a global economy already strained by Trump's tariffs. 7 During past Mideast, stocks initially languished but soon recovered to trade higher in the months ahead. AFP via Getty Images Still, any pullback in equities might be fleeting, history suggests. During past eruptions of Middle East tensions, including the 2003 Iraq invasion and the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, stocks initially languished but soon recovered to trade higher in the months ahead. Advertisement On average, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% in the three weeks following the start of conflict, but was 2.3% higher on average two months following the conflict, according to data from Wedbush Securities and CapIQ Pro. An escalation in the conflict could have mixed implications for the U.S. dollar, which has tumbled this year amid worries over diminished U.S. exceptionalism. 7 Analysts say the dollar could benefit from a safety bid in the event of direct US engagement in the Iran-Israel war. AFP via Getty Images In the event of U.S. direct engagement in the Iran-Israel war, the dollar could initially benefit from a safety bid, analysts said. Advertisement 'Do we see a flight to safety? That would signal yields going lower and the dollar getting stronger,' said Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at IBKR in Greenwich, Conn. 'It's hard to imagine stocks not reacting negatively and the question is how much.' Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager for global fixed income at Brandywine Global Investment Management in Philadelphia, said it was uncertain whether U.S. Treasuries would rally after the U.S. attack, largely due to the market's hypersensitivity to inflation. 'This could lead to regime change (which) ultimately could have a much bigger impact on the global economy if Iran shifts towards a more friendly, open economic regime,' said McIntyre.
Straits Times
an hour ago
- Business
- Straits Times
Oil surges as Trump's attack on Iran ramps up risks to supplies
SYDNEY – Oil surged when markets opened on June 23 after the US struck Iran's three main nuclear sites and threatened further attacks, exacerbating a crisis in the Middle East and stoking concerns that energy supplies from the region could be disrupted. Global benchmark Brent rallied as much as 5.7 per cent to US$81.40 a barrel, extending three weeks of gains. The Middle East accounts for about a third of global crude output, and higher, sustained prices would boost inflationary pressur In a weekend address, US President Donald Trump said air attacks had 'obliterated' the trio of targets, and threatened more military action if Iran didn't make peace. In its initial reply, Tehran warned the strikes would trigger 'everlasting consequences.' The US assault – which targeted sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – dramatically raises the stakes in the confrontation and increases the premium that traders are pricing into the global energy market. Still, the extent of the gains will hinge on how Tehran opts to respond to the US moves. The global oil market has been gripped by the crisis since Israel attacked Iran more than a week ago, with futures pushing higher, options volumes spiking along with freight rates, and the futures curve shifting to reflect tensions about tighter near-term supplies. 'This could set us on a path toward US$100 oil, if Iran responds as they have previously threatened to,' said Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee. 'This US attack could see a conflagration of the conflict.' There are multiple, overlapping risks for physical crude flows. The biggest centres on the Strait of Hormuz, should Tehran seek to retaliate by attempting to close the chokepoint. About a fifth of the world's crude output passes through the narrow waterway at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. Iran's parliament has called for the closure of the strait, according to state-run TV. Such a move, however, could not proceed though without the explicit approval of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rival suppliers In addition, Tehran could opt to target crude infrastructure in rival suppliers in the Middle East, such as fellow Opec+ producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq or the United Arab Emirates. After the US attack, both Riyadh and Baghdad expressed concern about the targeting of the nuclear facilities. Elsewhere, Tehran could orchestrate attacks on ships on the other side of the Arabian peninsula in the Red Sea, encouraging Yemen-based Houthi rebels to harass vessels. After the US attacks, the group threatened retaliation. If the hostilities escalate, Tehran's own oil-producing capabilities could be targeted, including the key export hub at Kharg Island. Such a move, however, could send crude prices soaring, an outcome that America might want to avoid. So far, Kharg Island has been spared, with satellite imagery pointing to a drive by Iran to expedite its exports of oil. The crisis will also throw a spotlight onto the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its allies including Russia. In recent months, Opec+ has been relaxing supply curbs at a rapid clip seeking to regain market share, and yet members still have substantial idled capacity that could be reactivated. BLOOMBERG Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Hindustan Times
2 hours ago
- Business
- Hindustan Times
Oil soars as Trump's attack on Iran ramps up risks to supplies
Oil surged after the US struck Iran's three main nuclear sites and threatened further attacks, exacerbating a crisis in the Middle East and stoking concerns that energy supplies from the region could be disrupted. A map showing the Strait of Hormuz and Iran is seen behind a 3D printed oil pipeline in this illustration taken June 22, 2025.(Reuters) Global benchmark Brent rallied as much as 5.7% to $81.40 a barrel, extending three weeks of gains. Timespreads widened. In a weekend address, US President Donald Trump said air attacks had 'obliterated' the trio of targets, and threatened more military action if Iran didn't make peace. In its initial reply, Tehran warned the strikes would trigger 'everlasting consequences.' The US assault — which targeted sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — dramatically raises the stakes in the confrontation and increases the premium that traders are pricing into the global energy market. Still, the extent of the gains will hinge on how Tehran opts to respond to the US moves. The global oil market has been gripped by the crisis since Israel attacked Iran more than a week ago, with futures pushing higher, options volumes spiking along with freight rates, and the futures curve shifting to reflect tensions about tighter near-term supplies. The Middle East accounts for about a third of global crude output, and higher, sustained prices would boost inflationary pressures worldwide. 'This could set us on a path toward $100 oil, if Iran responds as they have previously threatened to,' said Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee. 'This US attack could see a conflagration of the conflict.' There are multiple, overlapping risks for physical crude flows. The biggest centers on the Strait of Hormuz, should Tehran seek to retaliate by attempting to close the chokepoint. About a fifth of the world's crude output passes through the narrow waterway at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. Iran's parliament has called for the closure of the strait, according to state-run TV. Such a move, however, could not proceed though without the explicit approval of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rival Suppliers In addition, Tehran could opt to target crude infrastructure in rival suppliers in the Middle East, such as fellow OPEC producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq or the United Arab Emirates. After the US attack, both Riyadh and Baghdad expressed concern about the targeting of the nuclear facilities. Elsewhere, Tehran could orchestrate attacks on ships on the other side of the Arabian peninsula in the Red Sea, encouraging Yemen-based Houthi rebels to harass vessels. After the US attacks, the group threatened retaliation. If the hostilities escalate, Tehran's own oil-producing capabilities could be targeted, including the key export hub at Kharg Island. Such a move, however, could send crude prices soaring, an outcome that America might want to avoid. So far, Kharg Island has been spared, with satellite imagery pointing to a drive by Iran to expedite its exports of oil. The crisis will also throw a spotlight onto the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its allies including Russia. In recent months, OPEC has been relaxing supply curbs at a rapid clip seeking to regain market share, and yet members still have substantial idled capacity that could be reactivated.
Qatar Tribune
2 hours ago
- Business
- Qatar Tribune
Investors brace for more oil price spikes as United States bombs Iran sites
Agencies AU.S. attack on Iranian nuclear sites could push oil prices even more and trigger an automatic rush to safety, investors said, as they assessed how the latest escalation of tensions would ripple through the global economy. The reaction in Middle East stock markets, which trade on Sunday, suggested investors were assuming a benign scenario, even as Iran intensified its missile attacks on Israel in response to the sudden, deep U.S. involvement in the conflict. Trump called the attack 'a spectacular military success' in a televised address to the nation and said Iran's 'key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.' He said the U.S. military could go after other targets in Iran if the country did not agree to peace. Iran said it reserves all options to defend itself, and warned of 'everlasting consequences.' Investors said they expected the U.S. involvement would cause a sell-off in stock markets and a possible bid for the dollar and other safe-haven assets when major markets reopen, but also said much uncertainty about the course of the conflict remained. 'I think the markets are going to be initially alarmed, and I think oil will open higher,' said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital. 'We don't have any damage assessment and that will take some time. Even though he has described this as 'done', we're engaged. What comes next?' Spindel said. 'I think the uncertainty is going to blanket the markets, as now Americans everywhere are going to be exposed. It's going to raise uncertainty and volatility, particularly in oil,' he added. One indicator of how markets will react in the coming week was the price of ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency and the new gauge of retail investor sentiment after bitcoin, which is now held largely by institutions. Ether was down 5% on Sunday, taking losses since the first Israeli strikes on Iran on June 13 to 13%. Most Gulf stock markets, however, seemed unconcerned by the early morning attacks, with the main indexes in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait up slightly and Israel's Tel Aviv main index at an all-time high. A key concern for markets would center around the potential impact of the developments in the Middle East on oil prices and thus on inflation. A rise in inflation could dampen consumer confidence and lessen the chance of near-term interest rate cuts. Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at equity research firm MST Marquee in Sydney, said the more likely scenario would see Iran respond by targeting American interests in the Middle East, including Gulf oil infrastructure in places such as Iraq or harassing ship passages through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz lies between Oman and Iran and is the primary export route for oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq and Kuwait. 'Much depends on how Iran responds in the coming hours and days, but this could set us on a path towards $100 oil if Iran respond as they have previously threatened to,' Kavonic said. While global benchmark Brent crude futures have risen as much as 18% since June 10, hitting a near five-month high of $79.04 on Thursday, the S&P 500 has been little changed, following an initial drop when Israel launched its attacks on Iran on June 13. In comments after Trump announced the strikes, Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, agreed oil prices would likely spike on the initial news. But Cox said he expected prices to likely level off in a few days as the attacks could lead Iran to seek a peace deal with Israel and the U.S. 'With this demonstration of force and total annihilation of its nuclear capabilities, they've lost all of their leverage and will likely hit the escape button to a peace deal,' Cox said. Economists warn that a dramatic rise in oil prices could damage a global economy already strained by Trump's tariffs. Still, any pullback in equities might be fleeting, history suggests. During past prominent instances of Middle East tensions coming to a boil, including the 2003 Iraq invasion and the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, stocks initially languished but soon recovered to trade higher in the months ahead. On average, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% in the three weeks following the start of the conflict, but was 2.3% higher on average two months following the conflict, according to data from Wedbush Securities and CapIQ Pro. An escalation in the conflict could have mixed implications for the U.S. dollar, which has tumbled this year amid worries over diminished U.S. exceptionalism. In the event of U.S. direct engagement in the Iran-Israel war, the dollar could initially benefit from a safety bid, analysts said. 'Do we see a flight to safety? That would signal yields going lower and the dollar getting stronger,' said Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at IBKR in Greenwich, Connecticut. 'It's hard to imagine stocks not reacting negatively and the question is how much. It will depend on Iranian reaction and whether oil prices spike.'
Dubai Eye
7 hours ago
- Business
- Dubai Eye
Investors brace for oil price spike after US bombs Iran nuclear sites
A US attack on Iranian nuclear sites could push oil prices even higher and trigger a knee-jerk rush to safety, investors said, as they assessed how the latest escalation of tensions would ripple through the global economy. The reaction in Middle East stock markets, which trade on Sunday, suggested investors were assuming a benign scenario, even as Iran intensified its missile attacks on Israel in response to the sudden, deep US involvement in the conflict. Trump said Iran's "key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated" and added that the US military could go after other targets in Iran if the country did not agree to peace. Iran said it reserves all options to defend itself, and warned of "everlasting consequences". Investors said they expected the US involvement would cause a selloff in stock markets and a possible bid for the dollar and other safe-haven assets when major markets reopen, but also said much uncertainty about the course of the conflict remained. "I think the markets are going to be initially alarmed, and I think oil will open higher," said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital. "We don't have any damage assessment and that will take some time. Even though he has described this as 'done', we're engaged. What comes next?" Spindel said. "I think the uncertainty is going to blanket the markets, as now Americans everywhere are going to be exposed. It's going to raise uncertainty and volatility, particularly in oil," he added. One indicator of how markets will react in the coming week was the price of ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency and the new gauge of retail investor sentiment after bitcoin, which is now held largely by institutions. Ether was down 5 per cent on Sunday, taking losses since the first Israeli strikes on Iran on June 13 to 13 per cent. Most Gulf stock markets, however, seemed unconcerned by the early morning attacks, with the main indexes in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait up slightly and Israel's Tel Aviv main index at an all-time high. OIL PRICES, INFLATION A key concern for markets would centre around the potential impact of the developments in the Middle East on oil prices and thus on inflation. A rise in inflation could dampen consumer confidence and lessen the chance of near-term interest rate cuts. Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at equity research firm MST Marquee in Sydney, said the more likely scenario would see Iran respond by targeting American interests in the Middle East, including Gulf oil infrastructure in places such as Iraq or harassing ship passages through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz lies between Oman and Iran and is the primary export route for oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE Iraq and Kuwait. "Much depends on how Iran responds in the coming hours and days, but this could set us on a path towards $100 oil if Iran respond as they have previously threatened to," Kavonic said. While global benchmark Brent crude futures LCOc1 have risen as much as 18 per cent since June 10, hitting a near five-month high of $79.04 on Thursday, the S&P 500 has been little changed, following an initial drop when Israel launched its attacks on Iran on June 13. In comments after Trump announced the strikes, Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, agreed oil prices would likely spike on the initial news. But Cox said he expected prices to likely level off in a few days as the attacks could lead Iran to seek a peace deal with Israel and the United States. Economists warn that a dramatic rise in oil prices could damage a global economy already strained by Trump's tariffs. Still, any pullback in equities might be fleeting, history suggests. During past prominent instances of Middle East tensions coming to a boil, including the 2003 Iraq invasion and the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, stocks initially languished but soon recovered to trade higher in the months ahead. On average, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3 per cent in the three weeks following the start of conflict, but was 2.3 per cent higher on average two months following the conflict, according to data from Wedbush Securities and CapIQ Pro.
