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Mint
3 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Friday fortune: Nifty, Sensex end 3-day slide but caution lingers
India's benchmark equity indices snapped a three-day losing streak to end more than 1% higher on Friday, lifted by short-covering ahead of next week's monthly derivatives expiry and US president Donald Trump deferring his decision to join Israel's attack on Iran. Adding to the new market momentum were two significant semi-annual index rebalances: the Sensex and London's FTSE, according to Abhilash Pagaria, head of Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research. Siemens Energy is set to be dropped from the MSCI Global Standard Index, which could spark an estimated $210 million outflow. Since it's also part of the Nifty 50, an additional $50 million in outflows is anticipated from that front. In contrast, Tata Group fashion retailer Trent Ltd and state-run Bharat Electronics Ltd are set to replace Nestle and IndusInd Bank on the Sensex, potentially drawing in fresh investments. Meanwhile, the FTSE reshuffle is expected to bring in around $150 million into India, primarily due to the inclusion of Vishal Mega Mart. 'The market is like a person whose average temperature is fine as one leg is in cold water and the other leg is in boiling water,' said Nilesh Shah, managing director of Kotak Mahindra AMC. He said that stable domestic macros are currently outweighing geopolitical uncertainty. And, since the valuation of Indian equities is unlikely to be rated further up from here, Shah believes investor returns will come from earnings growth moving ahead. On Friday, both Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex closed 1.3% higher at 25,112.40 and82,408.17points, respectively. Gains in Nifty 50 were led by a surge in heavyweight stocks such as HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, and ICICI Bank. The Nifty 50 finally broke past the 25,000-mark on Friday, a level that had acted as a key resistance. With the index closing firmly above it, Kkunal Parar, vice-president at Choice Equity Broking, sees room for further gains, possibly up to 25,300 points. 'If momentum holds and the index surpasses that level', he believes Indian equities could be on track for a fresh high. Meanwhile, Nifty Smallcap 250 ended the day 0.6% higher and Nifty Midcap 100 surged 1.5%. A 2 June report from Morgan Stanley highlights the resilience of Indian markets, noting that 'market wants to go up, not down.' Since September 2024, the market has absorbed a wave of negative developments—from stretched valuations in small- and mid-caps and a broad-based correction, to concerns over slowing macro growth and earnings, US tariff-related volatility, and even a major terrorist attack followed by India's response. Yet, large-cap indices remain just about 5% below all-time highs, 'and almost negligible changes in implied volumes,' the report said. Israel and Iran continue to exchange fire after Israel launched strikes on Iran's military and nuclear sites on 13 June, drawing a retaliation from the Islamic nation and ratcheting up geopolitical tensions. Both Israel and the US want Iran to abandon its nuclear programme, and Trump has deferred his decision on attacking Iran by two weeks, opening a potential negotiating window. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers on Friday, picking up ₹ 7,940.70 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) booked profits with net sales of ₹ 3,049.88 crore, according to BSE provisional data. Over the past week, both FIIs and DIIs emerged as net buyers, with inflows of ₹ 1,209.57 crore and ₹ 18,726.90 crore, respectively, according to NSDL data. Overall cash levels of the mutual fund industry remain elevated, particularly concentrated within three asset management companies (AMCs), as per an Elara Capital report dated 17 June. 'It is important to understand that this is not a short-term tactical move but a strategic positioning reflecting caution on current market valuations—especially in the Mid and Smallcap segments.' The report highlighted that almost 25% of the total cash in the system is held by only 4 schemes and 50% by 18 schemes. And most of these schemes have maintained elevated cash level for more than a year. Rather than channeling funds into the secondary market, fund managers are increasingly turning to the primary market, where issuance activity has seen a notable resurgence since May 2025, the report pointed out. Still, some amount of caution continues to linger among investors, considering the ongoing conflict in West Asia. market experts said. A flare-up in tensions could drive up crude oil prices and heighten volatility, quickly souring the overall investor sentiment.
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Business Standard
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Trent, BEL to see $700 million inflows on Sensex rejig; VMM tops FTSE flows
Trent and BEL's entry into the BSE Sensex may drive $708 million in passive inflows, while Nestle and IndusInd Bank face outflows following their exclusion, per Nuvama estimates Sai Aravindh Mumbai The inclusion of Tata Group-owned Trent Ltd and Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) in the benchmark 30-stock BSE Sensex index will likely result in an inflow of $708 million. Trent is expected to see an inflow of $330 million, while the aerospace and defence electronics company BEL could see $378 million in inflows, according to Nuvama Alternative estimates. However, Nestle and IndusInd Bank are likely to see outflows of $230 million and $145 million, given that they were excluded from the Sensex gauge in the latest index rebalancing. Friday promises to be an action-packed day with two major semi-annual index rebalances lined up, Sensex and FTSE, Nuvama said in a note. "Historically, Sensex inclusions tend to see intraday upmoves, supported by stronger volumes, and a similar trend could play out this time as well." Catch Stock Market LIVE Updates Today During the day, the Sensex index rose as much as 1.01 per cent, or 824.5 points, to 82,186, while the Nifty50 index rose 1 per cent, or 247 points, to 25,040. Further, UltraTech Cement is expected to see an inflow of $4 million after its weights were increased, while HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Larsen & Toubro, ITC, TCS, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and State Bank of India are likely to see outflows after their weights were reduced. These changes will take effect from the start of trading on June 23, 2025. 'Index rejigs are a key event for the market because they help the market participants gauge the direction in which the funds are moving,' the BSE noted earlier. These periodic updates help ensure the index continues to represent India's evolving market trends. FTSE rejig The changes in the London-based Financial Times Stock Exchange index are likely to result in an inflow of $150 million into the domestic market, as per Nuvama's 'best-effort' estimates. The inflows are largely driven by the inclusion of Vishal Mega Mart, which is expected to see about $115 million, as per the brokerage. In addition to that, Hyundai Motor, Waaree Energies, Swiggy, NTPC Green Energy, Onesource Specialty Pharma, Afcons Infrastructure, Sai Life Science, and Inventurus Knowledge Solutions are expected to see inflows given their additions to the FTSE key index. Siemens Energy to exit from MSCI Global Standard Index Nuvama also noted that the shares of Siemens Energy will be deleted from the MSCI Global Standard Index after it was demerged from Siemens India. The estimated passive outflow is approximately $210 million, translating to around 7 million shares, the brokerage said. Siemens demerged on April 7, 2025 and Siemens ex-Energy price opened at ₹2,450 and implied ₹2,478 share value for the Siemens Energy India entity.
Economic Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Siemens Energy may see up to $180 million in outflows after MSCI exit
Siemens Energy India, which debuted on the Indian stock exchanges on Thursday, could see passive outflows of up to $180 million as it exits the MSCI Global Standard Index just a day after listing, according to estimates by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research. ADVERTISEMENT Global index provider MSCI will delete Siemens Energy India from its Global Standard Index (Large Cap segment), effective post-market close on June 20. The exit, Nuvama notes, could trigger 'estimated passive outflow in the range of USD 170–180 million,' although the brokerage added that a more accurate estimate would be available once the stock begins trading. 'If stock trades at lower circuit then implementation will get postponed,' Nuvama had said. Siemens Energy India began trading on Thursday, June 19, after being spun off from Siemens Ltd earlier this year. The stock was listed at Rs 2,850 and quickly hit the 5% upper circuit at Rs 2,992.45 on the BSE, bolstered by investor optimism around the company's role in India's expanding power transmission and distribution (T&D) shares are currently part of the 'T' Group—meaning they will be settled on a trade-for-trade basis for the first ten trading sessions, limiting intraday speculation. ADVERTISEMENT While MSCI exclusion is expected to lead to sizable passive outflows, Siemens Energy's removal from domestic indices such as the NSE and BSE early next week is likely to be more muted. 'The outflows here are expected to be minimal due to its negligible weight and passive tracking will be lower,' Nuvama said, adding that more clarity would follow the first day of trade. The brokerage is also monitoring how FTSE will respond the risk of outflows, brokerages remain bullish on Siemens Energy's long-term prospects. ADVERTISEMENT Jefferies estimates nearly 30% upside potential with a target price of Rs 3,700, calling it 'India's largest listed pure-play power T&D equipment player at $10 billion+ market cap.' The brokerage forecasts a 40% EPS CAGR over FY24-27E, citing a strong T&D pipeline and operating Oswal resumed coverage with a target of Rs 3,000 and a 'Buy' rating, projecting a 25%/31% CAGR in revenue and PAT over FY25-27 and an EBITDA margin expansion to 21.4% by FY27. 'Margins have already started expanding in 5MFY25,' the brokerage noted. ADVERTISEMENT HDFC Securities echoed the optimistic outlook, citing Siemens Energy's diversified offerings in power generation, green hydrogen, and grid automation, as well as exclusive rights in South Asia. It sees a 30% PAT CAGR supported by robust cash flows and innovative Energy India was demerged from Siemens Ltd in April 2025. The newly listed company focuses on transmission, distribution, and small- to mid-sized turbines. Its offerings range from 250 MW industrial turbines to 800 MW utility-scale generators, and includes power transformers up to 765 kV and EPC services. ADVERTISEMENT The firm is expected to benefit from India's planned Rs 3 trillion transmission investments through FY30, especially in high-voltage (400 kV and 765 kV) segments. Capex plans include Rs 4.6 billion for doubling transformer capacity, Rs 3.3 billion for GIS units in Goa, and Rs 0.6 billion for vacuum interrupters—some of which will cater to export markets. Also read | Siemens Energy shares zoom 5%, hit upper circuit post listing. Brokerages project 30% upside (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
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Business Standard
16-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
MSCI rejig: Swiggy, Mazagon Dock among 4 entrants; $850 mn inflows likely
Swiggy Ltd., Mazagaon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd., Hitachi Energy India Ltd. and Waaree Energies Ltd. are the four stocks that could be added to the MSCI Indexes in the upcoming review this August, according to JM Financial. The MSCI India Standard Index rebalancing will be announced on August 7 after market hours, the brokerage said in a note. The August 2025 rejig may include up to four additions, drawing estimated inflows of $850 million, it added. The changes will take effect from August 27. Swiggy is the only 'high' probable stock that could enter the global index aggregator's MSCI India Standard Index. The counter of the food delivery giant has recently come under focus as Rapido is gearing up to enter the food delivery space. Rapido is expected to charge a commission rate of 8-15 per cent from restaurant partners, which is significantly lower than Zomato and Swiggy's 21–22 per cent blended rates. Shares of Swiggy tumbled 33 per cent so far this year, compared to a 4.8 per cent advance in the benchmark Nifty50 index. The food delivery firm is expected to bring flows worth $385 million, the report said. Meanwhile, the shares of Mazagaon Dock and Hitachi Energy are under JM Financial's 'Medium Probability' list for the MSCI index inclusion. Mazagaon Dock scrip has cooled off after it saw a rally in May on the back of India's increased geopolitical tensions with Pakistan amid 'Operation Sindoor'. The stock of the shipbuilding company has fallen 10 per cent in June so far, after a 14 per cent rise in the month before. So far this year, the shares of Mazagaon Dock have surged by 40 per cent. Mazagaon Dock and Hitachi Energy are likely to bring inflows worth $187 million and $165 million, respectively. Waaree Energies is under the 'Waaree Energies' for its inclusion in the MSCI India Standard Index. With a market capitalisation of ₹80,506.81 crore, the stock has been under consolidation since the end of April. In the year so far, the stock has been almost flat with a 1.8 per cent decline. Earlier, in the May semi-annual review, MSCI included Coromandel International Ltd. and FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd., the parent company of Nykaa, in its MSCI Global Standard Index. There were no deletions from the Global Standard Index, and the changes took place as of the close of May 30, 2025.
Mint
14-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
MSCI rejig: Swiggy, Mazagon Dock, two others among likely additions to India Standard Index in August rebalancing
Swiggy, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, and two other stocks are expected to be added to the MSCI India Standard Index as part of the upcoming rebalancing scheduled for August 2025. Global index provider MSCI is set to announce the changes on August 7, after market hours. The last MSCI rebalancing was conducted on May 14, wherein the Coromandel International and FSN E-commerce Ventures, the parent company of the fashion and beauty e-tailer Nykaa, were included in the MSCI India Index, which is part of the MSCI Global Standard Index. The MSCI India Standard Index captures the performance of the large- and mid-cap segments of the Indian equity market, covering approximately 85% of the investable universe. According to JM Financial, the August rebalancing could see as many as four inclusions, potentially drawing an estimated $850 million in passive inflows. The changes will come into effect on August 27, 2025. JM Financial's analysis indicates that Swiggy shares have a high probability of inclusion in the index, while Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders and Hitachi Energy India are assigned medium probability. Waaree Energies shares have a low likelihood of inclusion. If included in MSCI India Standard Index, Swiggy is expected to receive estimated inflows of $385 million, with 93.8 million shares being added to the index. Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders shares could see inflows of approximately $187 million, followed by Hitachi Energy India at $165 million. Waaree Energies may see estimated inflows of $132 million. Ahead of the expected index rejig, these stocks have seen notable gains over the past month. Swiggy share price has surged over 14%, while Mazagon Dock share price has advanced 6%. Hitachi Energy India shares have delivered 11% returns, and Waaree Energies shares have gained around 5% during the same period. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
