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Maintaining the policy rate
Maintaining the policy rate

Business Recorder

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Business Recorder

Maintaining the policy rate

EDITORIAL: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 11 percent in spite of an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 3.5 percent year-on-year in May 2025 (from 0.3 percent in April) — the highest since January 2024 when CPI was calculated at 2.4 percent — and more tellingly the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) projected that 'some near term volatility in inflation is expected before it gradually inches up and stabilises within 5 to 7 percent.' The average CPI for the year 2024-25 was calculated by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) at 4.61 percent — lower than the projected increase next fiscal year. Core inflation declined to 7.3 percent last month (May), the lowest since May 2024. But in April 2025 core inflation was 0.1 percent higher than in May — at 7.4 percent — that may have been the basis for the MPS to refer to 'persistence in core inflation' though this so-called persistence was not evident in data from January to March 2025: 7.8 percent in January, 7.8 percent in February and 8.2 percent in March. The MPS noted that real interest rate remains adequately positive to stabilise inflation; however, if CPI had been used as a yardstick to adjust the discount rate (as it was during 2019 to 2022) then it should have been raised by 25 to 50 basis points and if core inflation was used as a yardstick then it could have been reduced by 25 basis points. This lends credence to the widely-held belief that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) did not approve any adjustment in the policy rate at this time — a decision that is inexplicable, given that the MPC met on 16 June (Monday) while a hike in domestic prices of oil and products was announced a day earlier (effective Monday) due to the rise in the international oil prices as a consequence of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict and yet the MPS reads 'energy prices continued to remain lower than last year, mainly reflecting the impact of moderation in global oil prices' — an observation that does not justify the policy rate remaining unchanged from 16 June onwards. The influence of the IMF on the MPS is evident from its contention that 'economic growth is picking up gradually and is projected to gain further traction next year, supported by the still unfolding impact of earlier policy rate cuts,' which mirrors the IMF statement in the first review documents uploaded a month ago notably, 'the MPC's decision to hold the policy rate in their March 10 meeting was appropriate, allowing time for past rate cuts to feed through to the economy.' This growth of 2.7 percent in the outgoing year belies two macroeconomic indicators: (i) the negativity suffered by the large-scale manufacturing sector rose from negative 0.22 percent July-March 2023-24 to negative 1.47 percent in the corresponding period 2024-25 as per data uploaded by the Finance Division; and (ii) agriculture crops underperformed; however, PBS upped the livestock growth which faces challenges in terms of collecting accurate data (comprising a little over 14 percent of agriculture's total 24 percent contribution to GDP) and services again not credibly accounted for, given that it constitutes mainly wholesale and retail trade which mainly operates outside the legal economy. The MPS further notes that growth accelerated to 3.9 percent during the second half of 2024-25 compared to 1.4 percent in the first half, which was as per MPC expectations. However, there is little evidence of this growth spurt in the second half of this year. Keeping the policy rate unchanged may have repercussions on yet to be approved by parliament budget 2025-26, given that the 738.677 billion-rupee lower mark-up budgeted for next fiscal year from the revised estimates of the outgoing year (in spite of a massive rise in bank borrowing to the tune of 3.438 trillion rupees) may adversely impact the budget balance sheet. The MPS rightly noted two major positive macroeconomic outcomes: the completion of the first IMF review which led to a disbursement of one billion dollars that strengthened foreign exchange reserves (which remain largely sourced to debt); and primary surplus of 2.2 percent of GDP in the current year (a Fund condition that has led to an increased reliance on incurring debt/debt equity) budgeted at 2.4 percent in 2025-26, which will have to be reassessed if the discount rate is not lowered during the year though here the MPS has noted that this would reflect 'the evolving geopolitical situation in the Middle East and some ease in the US-China trade relations.' The SBP is tasked by the IMF to achieve what the Fund has noted in the first review: 'changes to central bank communication, particularly greater clarity on the MPC's assessment of the current and desired policy stance, have been welcome and should continue to help the public better understand the MPC's reaction function to incoming data, and guide expectations between meetings'. This can only be described as work in progress at this point in time. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

CID chief Shuhaily leads Bukit Aman team to China
CID chief Shuhaily leads Bukit Aman team to China

New Straits Times

time3 days ago

  • Politics
  • New Straits Times

CID chief Shuhaily leads Bukit Aman team to China

KUALA LUMPUR: A delegation from Bukit Aman's Criminal Investigation Department (CID) recently had a working visit to China. The visit, hosted by China's Public Security Ministry (MPS), was led by Federal CID director Datuk Seri Mohd Shuhaily Mohd Zain. "The main objective of this visit is to foster better relationship between MPS' CID and Bukit Aman CID. This is the first time the CID has visited our counterparts in China. The visit is line with the exchanges of the leadership of both countries," he told the New Straits Times. He said the working visit was held between June 9 and 15. "Aside from the official bilateral meeting that discussed current and pending issues, we were also shown the ministry's forensics facilities. "We visited its forensics facility in Beijing and the Xi'an Provincial Police Forensics Lab. In Xi'an we were privileged to be given a tour around their police campus that houses 5,000 students. "The university offers 12 majors in public security and vocational security studies that has state of the art facilities which offer virtual crime scene exercises, class room practical sessions, as well as video sessions on crime scene investigations." Shuhaily said at least 70 per cent of the students would join the police service there. "Most of their forensic units in China have their own research units. Research to them is important to understand current threats and to identify strengths and weaknesses." He said they also conducted constant and transparent engagement sessions between officers and policymakers. Shuhaily said such practices were crucial to understand the needs of the police to address people's concerns and expectations — a practice that needed to be emulated here. "I observed from this visit that culture and history are rigorously emphasised in their philosophy of policing. This is instilled in their universities and police colleges. "Their investment in human capital is key. Technology remains important in this era, but the Chinese believe that human capital is the key to better technology to futher boost the efficiency and effectiveness of their organisation." Shuhaily said the meeting also delved into new assets and technologies to strengthen intelligence, operations and investigative capabilities. "Having a good working relationship, especially with foreign law enforcement agencies, has many benefits. "Criminals are now working beyond the confines of their borders, but law enforcement agencies are bound by local and international laws. "Good cooperation between counterparts is crucial for law enforcement agencies to combat crossborder crime. "In line with the rapid development in digital forensics, comprehensive knowledge, skills and precise technology are essential to meet the demands of modern case investigations." Meanwhile, Federal CID deputy director (forensics/strategic development) Datuk Dennis Lim said MPS had a policy of assigning individuals with high academic qualifications to conduct analyses within its forensics department. "All of them hold a minimum qualification of masters in their related fields. This policy will be more beneficial as the officers can focus on their tasks and not be subjected to regular transfers." He said this would, in turn, boost the standard of service.

Sandakan Municipal Council-Sandakan Chinese Chamber of Commerce collab to refurbish old, rundown Sandakan buildings
Sandakan Municipal Council-Sandakan Chinese Chamber of Commerce collab to refurbish old, rundown Sandakan buildings

Daily Express

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • Daily Express

Sandakan Municipal Council-Sandakan Chinese Chamber of Commerce collab to refurbish old, rundown Sandakan buildings

Published on: Wednesday, June 18, 2025 Published on: Wed, Jun 18, 2025 By: Winnie Kasmir Text Size: Walter (centre) with Sandakan Chinese Chamber of Commerce members. SANDAKAN: The Sandakan Municipal Council (MPS) is working hard to find building owners in the town centre as part of its plan to brighten up the area by repainting old and rundown buildings. MPS President, Walter Kenson, said the council had established a collaboration with the Sandakan Chinese Chamber of Commerce (SCCC) to refine the implementation of the programme, which aims to restore the former glory of the town centre that had become increasingly quiet and abandoned by traders and visitors. Advertisement 'The old town of Sandakan cannot be left neglected any longer. As the President of MPS, I am committed to finding ways to bring the town centre back to life.' 'One of the efforts involves repainting old buildings to give them a fresher and more appealing appearance,' he said during a press conference on Monday. A meeting session will be held on June 28 to engage shop owners in further discussions, including the provision of incentives to support this initiative. However, Walter said only 1,202 out of 2,624 premises owners had been contacted so far. 'Most of these buildings belong to people who don't live in Sandakan anymore. So, we're asking the media and the Chinese Chamber of Commerce to help spread the word and encourage them to come to the meeting,' he said. He pointed out that while building owners are responsible for repainting, MPS would provide some incentives to help lighten the cost. 'Details of the initiative will be announced on June 28. We are targeting at least 50 per cent of property owners to participate in this first phase,' he added. The programme is expected to begin once the meeting session and registration process are completed, with the aim of having the majority of buildings in the town centre repainted by the end of this year. Meanwhile, SCCC Chairman Chia Hock Ak said the association would make efforts to help trace the building owners in Sandakan town using the records maintained by SCCC. 'We'll do our best to track down these owners using the records we have. We'll also spread the word through different associations and social media,' he said. * Follow us on our official WhatsApp channel and Telegram for breaking news alerts and key updates! * Do you have access to the Daily Express e-paper and online exclusive news? Check out subscription plans available. Stay up-to-date by following Daily Express's Telegram channel. Daily Express Malaysia

MPS rises after appointing Sreenivas Trichy Venkatraman as COO
MPS rises after appointing Sreenivas Trichy Venkatraman as COO

Business Standard

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • Business Standard

MPS rises after appointing Sreenivas Trichy Venkatraman as COO

MPS advanced 2.28% to Rs 2,717.35 after the company announced that it has appointed Sreenivas Trichy Venkatraman as the chief operating officer (COO) of the company, effective from 16 June 2025. Sreenivas brings over 25 years of global leadership experience across industries such as retail, insurance, technology, media, and telecommunications, with significant stints in the USA, Canada, and India. His most recent role was at ITC Infotech, where he led a high-performing business unit with annual revenues exceeding $80 million, managing cross-functional teams and driving operational transformation and customer-centric innovation. Prior to that, he spent more than 15 years at Publicis Sapient in India and the U.S., where he was instrumental in building the digital experience practice. He led strategic client partnerships, large-scale digital transformation engagements and played a key role in talent development and delivery excellence. Sreenivas holds an MBA in Systems and Finance, a bachelors degree in Electronics and Communication Engineering, and an advanced diploma in Systems Management and Object-Oriented Programming Systems. At MPS, he will be responsible for driving operational and strategic initiatives, focusing on optimizing performance across the companys global operations. He will also lead efforts to align MPS over 3,000 professionals with the companys Vision 2027, aimed at reinforcing its leadership in premium B2B learning and platform solutions. MPS said Sreenivas appointment is expected to strengthen its operational efficiency and technology-led growth trajectory. The company also clarified that Sreenivas is not related to any of the directors of the company. MPS provides platforms and services for content creation, full-service production, and distribution to the worlds leading publishers, learning companies, corporate institutions, libraries, and content aggregators. The companys consolidated net profit surged 63.9% to Rs 47.07 crore on a 21.9% rise in net sales to Rs 182.11 crore in Q4 FY25 over Q4 FY24.

PSX range bound ahead of monetary policy
PSX range bound ahead of monetary policy

Express Tribune

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • Express Tribune

PSX range bound ahead of monetary policy

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Monday remained range bound and registered thin gains of 82 points as investors treaded cautiously ahead of monetary policy announcement later in the day. As expected by many analysts in the wake of escalating geopolitical tensions, the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 11%. Despite the conflict between Israel and Iran, the market ended trading in the positive territory as it took cue from the recovery in global equities. In the morning, the PSX kicked off proceedings on an upbeat note and immediately reached its intra-day high at 122,903 points. Soon afterwards, investors resorted to profit-taking, pulling the KSE-100 index down to the intra-day low at 121,890 after midday. "Stocks advanced despite geopolitical risks amid speculation about the State Bank of Pakistan's (SBP) policy announcement later in the day," said Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Corp. "Trade remained high amid consolidation. Recovery in global equities, IMF-driven upbeat projections for privatisation, economic growth and development expenditure in the federal budget for FY26 played the role of catalysts in positive close at the PSX." At the end of trading, the benchmark KSE-100 index recorded a slight rise of 81.79 points, or 0.07%, and settled at 122,225.36. Topline Securities, in its review, remarked that Pakistan's stock market experienced a pullback session, following recovery in global markets. The benchmark index traded within a range, hitting the intra-day high of 759 points and low of 253 points, before settling at 122,225 with a modest gain of 81 points. Topline mentioned that positive contribution to the index came from Bank AL Habib, OGDC, NBP, Mari Petroleum and Meezan Bank, which collectively added 371 points. On the other hand, stock selling in Engro Holdings, Pakgen Power and Lucky Cement wiped off 255 points. Market participation was robust as total traded volumes reached 1.22 billion shares and the traded value hit Rs26 billion, it added. Arif Habib Limited Deputy Head of Trading Ali Najib called it "a consolidation day ahead of the MPS (Monetary Policy Statement)." He said that the PSX had a range-bound session and ended on a relatively flat note at 122,225, up 82 points. The State Bank maintained its benchmark rate at 11%, as anticipated by the street. During the day, the benchmark index floated between 121,890 and 122,903 levels, making them the intra-day low and high, respectively. Investors opted for a cautious approach amid heightening geopolitical tensions in the backdrop of Iran-Israel conflict, Najib said. Among corporate news, the Fauji Fertiliser Company (FFC, -0.26%) board approved the submission of an Expression of Interest for PIA Holding Company (+7.95%) as the government planned to sell a 51-100% stake in PIA by the deadline of June 19. "Market direction hinges on Middle East developments and 120,000 serves as a key support. With improved stability, the index could target 130,000 in the near term," he anticipated. JS Research analyst Mubashir Anis Naviwala said that the bourse opened on a positive note, touching the intra-day high of 122,903, but failed to sustain the momentum. It closed at 122,225 as profit-taking emerged later in the session. On the economic front, the State Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 11%, aligning with expectations. Trading activity was dominated by small-cap stocks, reflecting short-term speculative interest, he said. "We advise investors to maintain a cautious stance and avoid aggressive exposure for now. Risk management remains the key amid geopolitical uncertainty and macro developments," Naviwala added. Overall trading volumes stood at 1.22 billion shares compared with Friday's tally of 968.3 million. The value of shares traded was Rs25.7 billion. Shares of 471 companies were traded, of which 282 stocks closed higher, 159 dropped and 30 remained unchanged. Among volume leaders, WorldCall Telecom saw trading in 267.1 million shares, gaining 17 paisa to Rs1.62 per share. It was followed by Pervez Ahmed Consultancy with trading in 92.03 million shares, gaining one rupee to Rs3.93 and First Capital Securities with 86.02 million shares, higher by 79 paisa to Rs3.85. Foreign investors bought shares worth Rs243.5 million, the National Clearing Company reported.

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