Latest news with #Lilly
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Health
- Yahoo
Muscle-preserving drugs could generate over $30 billion in sales by 2035, TD Cowen says
By Bhanvi Satija (Reuters) -Treatments designed to help patients preserve muscle while losing weight with popular obesity drugs by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk could generate more than $30 billion in sales by 2035, analysts at TD Cowen said on Friday. About a dozen companies are racing to develop such therapies, most of which are being tested in combination with Lilly's Zepbound or Novo's Wegovy, both of which target the GLP-1 protein to help control appetite. The initial Wall Street estimates for muscle-preserving therapies follow promising mid-stage results from experimental drugs developed by Regeneron and Scholar Rock. Investors are closely watching mid-stage data from Lilly's muscle mass-preserving drug, bimagrumab, which is scheduled for presentation at a medical conference next week. Analysts have projected that obesity drugs sales could reach $150 billion a year by the early 2030s. The unmet need to preserve muscle will grow with the use of GLP-1 drugs for obesity, said TD Cowen analyst Tyler Van Buren. Doctors have raised concerns that patients may experience a decrease in overall strength due to muscle loss associated with Zepbound and Wegovy, while experts suggest that more muscle can help patients maintain long-term weight loss. Van Buren said that the first such treatment could launch by 2028, although regulatory challenges remain because these treatments must demonstrate additional health benefits to secure approval. "We believe quality of weight loss and lean mass preservation ... is far too important for long-term health outcomes to be ignored and that this will be figured out," Van Buren said. Some of the new drugs target the myostatin protein, which is associated with muscle growth, and are expected to see broader use due to their superior safety profile, capturing the majority of the market share, Van Buren said. Other drugs target activin, a protein with multiple biological functions. Van Buren said that activin-based drugs will be reserved for patients at higher risk of losing strength, forecasting sales of about $5 billion by 2035. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Yahoo
Seven weeks later, two N.S. children are still missing. Why wasn't an Amber Alert issued?
Seven weeks after two children went missing from a rural Nova Scotia community, family members are still questioning why an Amber Alert wasn't issued for Lilly and Jack Sullivan. The young siblings have been missing since the morning of May 2, when police received a 911 call reporting they had wandered away from their home in Lansdowne Station, about 140 kilometres northeast of Halifax. RCMP have said all along that the case did not meet the criteria for the alert, and are now providing more details on the factors that are considered and the process that plays out in such situations. Amber Alerts are a national public notification system used to help find abducted children believed to be in imminent danger. Cpl. Guillaume Tremblay, who works in the RCMP's communications unit, was working the day of the disappearance and reviewed the policy on Amber Alerts. He said the criteria state there must be something to point the public toward, such as a suspect, a person of interest or a vehicle. "You want to direct the public to look for a specific vehicle, to look for that licence plate, to look for that suspicious person, to have a photo of someone or more information to suggest that there was an abduction," said Tremblay in a recent interview. While Tremblay reviewed the policy, it's the risk manager — appointed for every major incident — that ultimately decides if an alert should be sent out. In this case, the force issued two "vulnerable persons" alerts. The first was sent at 12:43 p.m. on the day of the disappearance and was directed to cellphones across a swath of communities in northeastern parts of Nova Scotia's mainland, including Lansdowne Station and New Glasgow. The second was issued at 5:26 p.m. the following day — May 3 — and included a larger area from Truro up to Tatamagouche and stretching across to Antigonish. For Daniel Martell, the children's stepfather, those alerts did not go far enough. He said he asked RCMP to issue an Amber Alert early on, and to position officers at the New Brunswick and P.E.I. borders and the airport, but was told the situation did not meet the criteria. "I think they should have just bent the criteria at that moment," said Martell. "It wasn't just one missing person, but two vulnerable children." Lilly and Jack's mother, Malehya Brooks-Murray, posted on her Facebook page the day after the disappearance asking for an Amber Alert to be issued. RCMP have repeatedly said there is no evidence to suggest the children were abducted. But that hasn't quelled the concerns of Belynda Gray, the children's paternal grandmother. She, too, wanted police to issue an Amber Alert, given the children's vulnerability. Lilly and Jack's mother and stepfather have both spoken to the media about how the siblings could have autism, but it has not been diagnosed. Gray says it's unfortunate an Amber Alert hinges on a specific car or person being identified as involved in a disappearance. "These are vulnerable kids," Gray said in a recent interview. "They do have a bit of a learning disability, so that puts them even more vulnerable." The investigation has included searches of 8.5 square kilometres surrounding the children's home, including wooded areas, the family home, mine shafts, wells, septic systems and lakes. There are 11 RCMP units working on the case, with the major crime unit taking the lead. Formal interviews have been conducted with 54 people, some of whom were administered polygraph tests. Police have also collected hundreds of hours of video from the surrounding area, including dashcam footage of Gairloch Road — where the family home is located — from days before the disappearance. Meanwhile, the Nova Scotia government is offering up to $150,000 for information about the disappearance. On Thursday, Justice Minister Becky Druhan repeated that Amber Alerts involve specific criteria that were followed in this case. She noted they are administered through a national system, so the criteria are standardized across Canada and any changes would be beyond her department's scope. "Right now, we are focused on doing what we can to help support the investigation," said Druhan. "Ther RCMP has asked us to include this case in the major rewards program, and so we're hopeful that that's going to help generate some information that's going to help solve this case." There were eight Amber Alerts involving 10 children issued last year across Canada, according to the RCMP's National Centre for Missing Persons and Unidentified Remains. All of those children were found alive. MORE TOP STORIES
Globe and Mail
7 hours ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
LLY vs. ABBV: Which Pharma Powerhouse is the Better Bet?
Eli Lilly LLY and AbbVie ABBV are U.S.-based pharmaceutical powerhouses with blockbuster drug portfolios, robust pipelines, strong market capitalization and global footprint. Both companies have a strong presence in immunology, oncology and neuroscience areas. Other than that, AbbVie also has products for aesthetics and eye care, while Lilly boasts a leading presence in cardiometabolic health. While AbbVie has seen tremendous success with its immunology drugs, Lilly's GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, under its cardiometabolic health business, are the key to its success story. Both stocks are being seen as defensive pharma plays amid tariff and pricing uncertainties. But which one is a better investment option today? Let's take a closer look at their fundamentals, growth prospects and challenges to make an informed choice. The Case for Lilly Lilly has a strong portfolio of medicines to treat diabetes and other cardiometabolic diseases, and its cardiometabolic business is its most successful business, particularly with the success of its popular tirzepatide medicines, diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine, Zepbound. Despite being on the market for less than three years, GLP-1 medicines, Mounjaro and Zepbound, became key top-line drivers for Lilly, with demand rising rapidly. Mounjaro and Zepbound account for around 50% of the company's total revenues. Though sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound were below expectations in the second half of 2024, hurt by slower-than-expected growth and unfavorable channel dynamics, their sales picked up in the first quarter of 2025, driven by launches of the drugs in new international markets and improved supply from ramped-up production. We believe that increased uptake in outside U.S. markets and deeper penetration in the U.S. market will continue to drive Mounjaro and Zepbound's growth in future quarters. Approvals for new indications can also drive sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound higher. Other than Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly has gained approvals for some other new drugs in the past couple of years across different therapeutic areas like Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla (donanemab). Lilly expects its new drugs, Mounjaro, Zepbound, Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla, along with the expanded use of existing drugs, to drive sales growth in 2025. Lilly is also making rapid pipeline progress in obesity, diabetes and cancer, with several key mid and late-stage data-readouts expected this year. Lilly is investing broadly in obesity and has several next-gen candidates currently in clinical development. Lilly has its share of problems. Prices of most of Lilly's products are declining in the United States. In 2025, Lilly expects a mid-to-high single-digit percentage price decline, including U.S. Part D changes. Potential competition in the GLP-1 diabetes/obesity market is another headwind. Mounjaro and Zepbound face strong competition from Novo Nordisk 's NVO semaglutide medicines, Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity. Novo Nordisk has already filed an application for an oral version of Wegovy and also has several next-generation candidates in its obesity pipeline, like CagriSema and amycretin. CVS Caremark, a major pharmacy benefit manager ('PBM'), has signed a partnership with NVO to make Wegovy its preferred GLP-1 therapy for weight loss, effective July 1. Hims & Hers Health also signed a distribution partnership with NVO in April to offer Wegovy at a discounted price to its platform users. It remains to be seen if NVO's deals affect Zepbound's market share going forward. The Case for AbbVie AbbVie has successfully navigated the loss of exclusivity ('LOE') of its blockbuster drug, Humira, which once generated more than 50% of its total revenues. It has accomplished this by launching two other successful new immunology medicines, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which are performing extremely well, bolstered by approvals in new indications and should support top-line growth in the next few years. Skyrizi and Rinvoq generated combined sales of $5.1 billion in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting growth of more than 65%. The drugs are seeing strong performance across all their approved indications. AbbVie expects combined sales of Skyrizi and Rinvoq to be around $24.7 billion in 2025 and more than $31 billion by 2027. The company's oncology strategy is also gaining traction, supported by increasing contributions from newer products, Elahere and Epkinly. In May, the FDA approved its antibody-drug-conjugate, Emreli (Teliso-V), for treating advanced non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) AbbVie has several early/mid-stage pipeline candidates with blockbuster potential. The company expects several regulatory submissions, approvals and key data readouts in the next 12 months. The company has been on an acquisition spree in the past couple of years, which is strengthening its pipeline. It has signed several M&A deals in the immunology space, its core area, while also signing some early-stage deals in oncology and neuroscience areas. It has also forayed into the lucrative obesity space through a licensing deal with Denmark-based Gubra for the latter's experimental long-acting amylin analog for obesity. However, the company faces some near-term headwinds like Humira's biosimilar erosion, increasing competitive pressure on cancer drug Imbruvica and declining sales of Juvederm fillers in the United States and China due to challenging market conditions. How Do Estimates Compare for LLY & ABBV? The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LLY's 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 33.03% and 68.9%, respectively. EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have declined over the past 60 days. LLY Estimate Movement The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AbbVie's 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 6.6% and 21.3%, respectively. The EPS estimate for 2025 has risen from $12.26 per share to $12.28 per share over the past 60 days, while that for 2026 has risen from $13.96 per share to $14.06 per share over the same timeframe. ABBV Estimate Movement Price Performance and Valuation of LLY & ABBV Year to date, while LLY's stock has risen 2.1%, AbbVie's stock has risen 6.4%. The industry has declined 0.2% in the said time frame. AbbVie looks more attractive than Lilly from a valuation standpoint. Going by the price/earnings ratio, Lilly's shares currently trade at 30.03 forward earnings, significantly higher than 14.98 for the industry. However, LLY currently trades lower than its 5-year mean of 34.54. AbbVie's shares currently trade at 14.15 forward earnings, lower than the industry. However, ABBV trades above the stock's 5-year mean of 12.40. AbbVie's dividend yield is 3.5%, while Lilly's is around 0.8%. LLY or ABBV: Which is a Better Pick? AbbVie & Lilly have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each, which makes choosing one stock a difficult task. Lilly is a good stock to have in one's portfolio, considering its diversified product and pipeline portfolio and robust growth prospects despite its expensive valuation. Lilly's tremendous success with Mounjaro and Zepbound has made it the largest drugmaker with a market cap of more than $750 billion, and its stock price has crossed $800 per share. In 2025, Lilly expects to record revenues in the range of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, indicating an impressive 32% year-over-year growth. On the other hand, AbbVie has faced its biggest challenge — Humira's patent cliff — quite well and looks well-positioned for continued strong growth in the years ahead. AbbVie expects to return to robust revenue growth in 2025, which is just the second year following the U.S. Humira LOE, driven by its ex-Humira platform. Boosted by its new product launches, AbbVie expects to return to robust mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025 with a high single-digit CAGR through 2029, as it has no significant LOE event for the rest of this decade. A substantial portion of this growth is expected to be driven by robust performances from Skyrizi and Rinvoq. Overall, considering Lilly's several near-term challenges, AbbVie looks like a safer bet for short-term investors, given its price appreciation, rising estimates, cheaper valuation, stronger dividends, and solid near-term gains. Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor Stock It's only 1/9,000th the size of NVIDIA which skyrocketed more than +800% since we recommended it. NVIDIA is still strong, but our new top chip stock has much more room to boom. With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $803 billion by 2028. See This Stock Now for Free >> Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO): Free Stock Analysis Report Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Free Stock Analysis Report AbbVie Inc. (ABBV): Free Stock Analysis Report
9 hours ago
- Business
Carney bulldozes his nation-building bill through Parliament
Agreement comes 18 months after negotiations began, according to Crown corporation. Companies appealing after Ontario decision that they unlawfully charged workers for jobs at Canadian Tire. Canada could hike tariffs on American steel and aluminum if there's no deal in 30 days. Nearly a dozen RCMP units are trying to piece together what happened to Lilly and Jack Sullivan. Other recommendations aimed at improving aviation policy, air travel access in Canada's North.
Mint
10 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
How weight-loss drugs blew out the US trade deficit
Planes have been jetting from Ireland to the U.S. this year carrying something more valuable than gold: $36 billion worth of hormones for popular obesity and diabetes drugs. The frantic airlift of those ingredients—more than double what was imported from Ireland for all of last year—reflects the collision of two powerful forces: tariff-driven stockpiling and weight-loss drug demand. The peptide and protein-based hormones feed into a category of drugs that include wildly popular GLP-1 treatments and newer types of insulin known as analogues. Taken together the shipments weighed just 23,400 pounds, according to U.S. trade data, equivalent to the weight of less than four Tesla Cybertrucks. Fit into temperature-controlled air cargo containers, the pharmaceutical ingredients have had a huge impact on the U.S. trade imbalance. The shipments have vaulted Ireland, a country of only 5.4 million people, into the second-largest goods-trade imbalance with the U.S., trailing only China. They accounted for roughly half of the $71 billion in goods the U.S. imported from the country in the first four months of the year. Nearly 100% of the imports had a final destination of Indiana, according to U.S. customs records. Eli Lilly, the drug giant behind weight loss and diabetes drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro, is headquartered in Indianapolis. A Lilly spokeswoman declined to comment. President Trump's off-and-on trade war has rewritten global trading patterns this year and—temporarily, at least—widened some of the imbalances he is seeking to eliminate. Companies have scrambled to get shipments to the U.S. ahead of tariff deadlines, with a first round of front-loading ahead of the April 2 announcement, and smaller pushes after the White House paused some of its tariffs. Ireland is at the epicenter of the global rush. It is a major hub for U.S. drug giants, who have been expanding operations there in part because of Ireland's favorable tax policies. Some of the bestselling drugs in the world, such as AbbVie's anti-wrinkle treatment Botox, and U.S. drugmaker Merck's cancer treatment Keytruda, are made in the country. 'It's common sense. It's uncertain at the moment, so you're building a bit of security by stockpiling," said Matt Moran, a consultant and former director of industry group BioPharmaChem Ireland. 'There's such huge demand for those products at the moment." The trade imbalance has put Ireland into an uncomfortable position, landing it earlier this month on the U.S. Treasury Department's monitoring list for currency manipulation, which the government uses to send a warning shot to countries it thinks use unfair trade practices. Ireland's central bank said in a report Thursday that new factories making weight-loss drug ingredients helped drive the country's exports. Ireland's first-quarter economic growth expanded by nearly 10% in the first quarter thanks to the export surge. The attention is 'definitely not welcome," said Dan O'Brien, chief economist of the Institute of International and European Affairs, a Dublin think tank. 'A very big part of the U.S.-EU deficit is accounted for by Ireland alone. Trump doesn't like deficits." The White House wants American drug companies to bring production home and in April ordered a so-called Section 232 investigation that could result in tariffs on both imported drugs and ingredients like hormones. Trump said this week that such tariffs could come 'very soon." Lilly is a force in the market for weight-loss drugs, with sales of its GLP-1 medicines Mounjaro and Zepbound expected to nearly double this year to about $30 billion, according to Bank of America analysts. Maintaining supply of weight-loss drugs has been a challenge for both Lilly and rival Novo Nordisk, the Danish maker of Ozempic and Wegovy. The companies were initially unable to keep up with demand for the drugs. Lilly resolved the shortages faster, helping it to take market share from Novo. Lilly is now preparing for the potential launch of a weight-loss pill, orforglipron, which it plans to submit for U.S. approval later this year. Lilly said it began producing weight-loss and diabetes medicines at its Irish factory in Kinsale in 2023. Novo doesn't produce weight-loss drugs in Ireland, according to a spokeswoman. Peptide and protein-based hormones help to regulate processes such as appetite and metabolism. The category includes hormones that mimic a naturally occurring gut hormone called glucagon-like peptide-1, or GLP-1, but can also be used in some fertility and osteoporosis treatments. Shipping and logistics companies say they have noticed increased demand for pharma shipments, which often travel by air instead of on cheaper ocean freighters because they are so light and valuable. Pharma shipments more than doubled from Ireland to the U.S. in March and April, according to data firm WorldACD. Kuehne + Nagel, a Swiss logistics company with operations in the country, said its teams did overtime to accommodate the increase in booking requests and the customs paperwork. 'We didn't see the same increase from Ireland to the rest of the world. That was not a global trend," said Nico Sacco, the company's senior vice president of healthcare strategy. Imports of vaccines and various other drugs including cancer treatments also increased this year from Ireland, according to trade data. Merck produces cancer treatment Keytruda, the world's bestselling drug, in Ireland, among other places. Merck Chief Executive Rob Davis in April said the company has enough supply to mitigate any impact this year from tariffs and is working on navigating the long-term fallout of tariffs. Merck recently began construction on its first U.S. plant to make Keytruda. Lilly said earlier this year it plans to invest $27 billion in expanding U.S. production. The hormones are often freeze dried and shipped as powders. Obesity-related drugs can fly in the cargo sections of passenger planes, or on cargo flights reserved for pharma products, said Anand Kulkarni, head of global markets at Lufthansa Cargo. Lufthansa saw demand for U.S.-bound pharma shipments from locations such as India, Switzerland and Belgium. Volumes began to dip in April as warehouses in the U.S. reached capacity, he said. To increase shipments, drug companies likely tapped existing stocks and diverted production destined for the rest of the world to the U.S. market instead, industry executives said. 'You can't just switch on capacity. You don't go out and buy machines and start them up," said Moran, the consultant. 'They have to be built, commissioned, validated, and approved by the regulator." Write to Chelsey Dulaney at and Jared S. Hopkins at
