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Epoch Times
15 hours ago
- Business
- Epoch Times
What Kind of Jobs Can Weather the Storm of Recession?
As the economy reacts to President Donald Trump's sweeping U.S. tariffs, some Americans may be worrying about job certainty. The economy contracted by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Moreover, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States fell by 1 percent in April 2025 to 99.4, according to the latest data from the think tank The Conference Board.
Fibre2Fashion
2 days ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
UK LEI declines further in April; CEI edges up: The Conference Board
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United Kingdom declined by 0.4 per cent in April 2025 to 74.9 (2016=100), following a similar drop in March. Over the six-month period from October 2024 to April 2025, the LEI contracted by 1.2 per cent, a steeper fall than the 1 per cent decline seen in the prior six months, TCB said in a release. 'The UK LEI continued to slide in April, remaining on a downward trend that started in 2022. This reflected the economic uncertainty in the month, as well as higher inflation and energy costs, and worries regarding escalating trade tensions. The 6-month growth rate of the UK LEI has cooled but remained above the recession threshold,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. Meanwhile, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, rose by 0.2 per cent to 108 in April after remaining flat in March. The CEI grew by 1.1 per cent over the same six-month period, slightly slower than the 1.2 per cent increase registered between April and October 2024. 'Overall, the LEI reading suggests that, after a stronger than expected first quarter, economic growth in the United Kingdom will likely moderate in the remainder of 2025. The Conference Board expects UK GDP to grow by 1.4 per cent in 2025 after 1.1 per cent in 2024,' Li added. The UK's Leading Economic Index fell 0.4 per cent to 74.9 in April 2025, extending a downward trend since 2022 amid economic uncertainty, inflation, and trade tensions. The Coincident Economic Index rose 0.2 per cent to 108. The Conference Board expects UK GDP growth to ease to 1.4 per cent in 2025, following 1.1 per cent in 2024, after a stronger-than-expected first quarter. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Is a Recession Coming or Not? Here Are Both Sides of the Coin
The debate over whether the U.S. is heading into a recession in 2025 is intensifying, with economists, policymakers and business leaders offering conflicting perspectives. While some indicators suggest an economic downturn is imminent, others point to resilience and potential for continued growth. Is a recession coming or not? Here are both sides of the coin. Trending Now: For You: According to Trading Economics, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first decline since early 2022. In addition, a PNC Bank analysis found that consumer spending has also slowed to 0.3% after a 3.7% increase in March as consumers attempted to get ahead of anticipated tariffs. Check Out: President Trump's tariff policies have led to increased import costs, contributing to inflation and supply chain disruptions. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), an international body that monitors global economic trends, has downgraded U.S. growth projections to 1.6% for 2025, citing these trade policies as a significant drag on the economy. At a recent meeting, Federal Reserve officials said the job market was anticipated to deteriorate significantly, with the unemployment rate projected to rise above the staff's estimate of its natural level by the end of this year and stay elevated beyond that natural rate until at least 2027. Additionally, CEO confidence has plummeted, with 83% predicting a recession within the next 12 to 18 months, according to a survey by The Conference Board, a non-profit research organization. The organization's Leading Economic Index (LEI) is widely used to predict the direction of the U.S. economy. According to J.P. Morgan data, the yield curve inversion, a traditional recession predictor, has persisted since July 2022. While its reliability is debated, the New York Fed's model estimates a 51% probability of a recession starting within a year, with a confidence interval ranging from 39% to 64%. Despite concerns, the labor market remains robust, with unemployment at 4.2% and continued job growth, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer spending, a key economic driver, has shown resilience, supporting the argument against an immediate recession. For example, data from the Washington Retail Association showed that in March, retail sales increased by 1.4%, driven by higher spending on cars, dining out and apparel. The Federal Reserve has maintained steady interest rates, balancing concerns over inflation and economic growth. 'The U.S. economy is still on a firm footing, but uncertainty has notably increased since the beginning of the year. In this environment, monetary policy will need to carefully balance our dual-mandate goals of price stability and maximum employment,' Federal Reserve Board Member Lisa Cook said at a recent meeting. Some economists suggest the U.S. may be experiencing a 'vibecession,' where negative public sentiment does not align with economic fundamentals, according to ClearBridge. This disconnect implies that while people feel pessimistic, the economy may not be in an actual recession. While official declarations of recession rely on two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, some economists argue that the reality of a downturn is already unfolding, both in data and in everyday life. 'Although there are still some economic sectors where activity remains and this may create the illusion of stability because the real situation remains tense,' said Julia Khandoshko, CEO of Mind Money. 'Everything that happens with debts and bonds exerts systemic pressure. Many people think that there is no recession until it is announced. This is a big mistake. In fact, when it is officially recognized, everything will be felt in the wallet for a long time,' Khandoshko explained. As uncertainty grows, Khandoshko said the smartest move is to prepare for a recession rather than trying to predict it. 'Think in advance how to reduce unnecessary expenses, postpone major purchases, try to reduce debts and form your safe haven,' she said. 'Because if everything goes according to a bad scenario, the speed at which the situation will change will be high.' Editor's note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on More From GOBankingRates 3 Luxury SUVs That Will Have Massive Price Drops in Summer 2025 The 5 Car Brands Named the Least Reliable of 2025 10 Unreliable SUVs To Stay Away From Buying This article originally appeared on Is a Recession Coming or Not? Here Are Both Sides of the Coin Sign in to access your portfolio
Fibre2Fashion
30-05-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
China's LEI & CEI slip again, raising economic concerns: TCB
China's economic outlook showed further signs of moderation as The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.3 per cent in April 2025 to 149.2 (2016=100), following an identical decline in March. China's economic outlook softened as the LEI fell 0.3 per cent in April 2025, marking a 1.3 per cent drop over six months due to weak consumer sentiment, logistics, and export orders. The CEI also declined 0.7 per cent, signalling weaker current activity. However, easing US-China tariffs and new monetary measures may support growth, with 2025 GDP forecast at 4.5â€'5.0 per cent. Over the six months from October 2024 to April 2025, the LEI dropped by 1.3 per cent, easing from a steeper 1.7 per cent fall in the previous six-month period. 'For at least 6 months, the month-on-month declines in the LEI have primarily been driven by persistent weakness in three components: consumer expectations, logistics prosperity index and new export orders in manufacturing. The new export orders fell to a reading last seen in 2022, likely because of the steep US tariffs first imposed in early April,' Malala Lin, economic research associate, at The Conference Board said in a release. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, declined by 0.7 per cent to 152.4 in April, partly reversing March's 1.7 per cent gain. CEI growth over the recent six-month period slowed markedly to 0.7 per cent, compared to 4.0 per cent in the preceding six months. 'However, not captured in this latest LEI reading, most recently, the US and China have reached an agreement to de-escalate tariff impositions, which could alleviate pressure on export driven sectors of China's economy. Additionally, 10 coordinated monetary policy measures were launched in early May to mitigate the impacts of trade tensions. While the negative LEI growth rates still signal headwinds ahead, these extensive monetary actions are expected to support growth going forward. Overall, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth at between 4.5 per cent to 5.0 per cent in 2025,' Lin added. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
Fibre2Fashion
26-05-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Euro area LEI declines in April, CEI steady; GDP to rise at 0.9%: TCB
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the euro area declined by 1.0 per cent in April 2025 to 99.9 (2016=100), marking its second consecutive monthly drop following a 0.4 per cent fall in March. The euro area's Leading Economic Index fell 1.0 per cent in April 2025, driven by weakened consumer confidence and sector expectations post-US tariff announcement. The six-month LEI decline slowed to 2.9 per cent. The Coincident Index was unchanged in April, with 0.8 per cent growth over six months. The Conference Board forecasts 0.9 per cent euro area GDP growth for 2025. Over the six-month period from October 2024 to April 2025, the LEI contracted by 2.9 per cent—an improvement compared to the steeper 3.7 per cent decline during the prior six-month span, the TCB said in a release. 'The euro area LEI fell at a steeper rate last month, in the wake of the US tariff announcement on April 2nd. All non-financial components weighed on the Index. In particular, consumer confidence declined while expectations in the service and manufacturing sector weakened,' said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, at The Conference Board. Meanwhile, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the region remained unchanged in April at 110.0, after registering a 0.3 per cent increase in March. The CEI posted a 0.8 per cent rise over the latest six-month period, accelerating from 0.3 per cent growth recorded between April and October 2024. 'Taking into account the impact of US tariffs, the high level of uncertainty and the persistence of geopolitical tensions, The Conference Board projects euro area's real GDP to grow by 0.9 per cent in 2025,' Guichard added. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
