Latest news with #KylaScanlon
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bad ‘vibes' may be having a bigger impact on the economy now
There has been a disconnect in recent years between the so-called soft economic data and the hard data as weak readings on consumer confidence didn't always translate to lower payrolls or GDP. But that may be changing as key buffers that propped up spending are disappearing, according to NerdWallet senior economist Elizabeth Renter. Americans used to say one thing about their feelings on the economy and do something else with their actual dollars. But that may be changing. The disconnect between weak readings on consumer confidence versus solid employment, income and GDP data was previously described as a 'vibecession' by economist Kyla Scanlon, who first used the term in her 2022 Substack post. The last vibecession hit as inflation was at the highest levels in more than 40 years, while an aggressive rate-hiking campaign from the Federal Reserve spiked borrowing costs, making auto loans and mortgages more expensive. But consumers continued to spend as the labor market remained robust. And aside from a brief dip in GDP, the economy avoided a recession. Confidence surveys also increasingly reflected partisan differences more than the actual economy. Fast forward to 2025. Consumer sentiment collapsed after President Donald Trump launched his trade war, and GDP shrank again, skewed by a rush to buy imported goods ahead of higher tariffs. Still, payrolls have held up, and inflation hasn't been as affected by tariffs as feared. But while sentiment recovered a bit after Trump postponed his highest tariff rates, it's still 20% below December 2024 levels. 'Despite this month's notable improvement, consumers remain guarded and concerned about the trajectory of the economy,' the most recent University of Michigan survey said. At the same time, the Trump administration is slashing spending and jobs, with ripple effects reaching contractors and even certain real estate markets. Businesses that are uncertain about the economy and the direction of tariffs have slowed hiring. Student-loan delinquencies are up, and AI is eliminating many entry-level jobs that once went to newly minted college graduates. Then there's oil prices, which have jumped since Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. The cumulative effect is taking a toll. 'I don't think the U.S. consumer has grown numb or blind to the headlines and economic risk—over the past month we've seen some sentiment scores rise slightly, but we have to think about where they were rising from,' Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, said in a note on Friday. 'A little bit better doesn't necessarily mean good, even if it might mean hopeful.' As a result, it's getting harder to dismiss the so-called soft data on the economy and focus instead on the hard data. That's as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said he and his fellow policymakers won't act on rates until the hard data on unemployment and inflation gives them a clear reason to. But the soft stuff may be leaking into the hard stuff. 'Unlike a few years ago, the 'vibes' now stand to have a greater impact on behavior, and thus the health of the economy,' Renter wrote. 'That's because unlike a few years ago, people don't have the luxury of easily stumbling into a better job or relying on excess savings and debt payment forbearances.' In fact, household debt is rebounding to pre-pandemic levels and beyond, eroding the ability to absorb an unexpected expense or job loss, she added. Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, similarly drew a direct line between consumer sentiment and actual spending. Digging into the May retail sales report, he noted that consumers didn't just pull back on durable goods like electronics and cars, which fell after an earlier jump to get ahead of tariffs, they also reined in spending on daily expenses like groceries and restaurants. Spending at building material and garden supply stores also saw big drops, suggesting less residential investment in home improvements. 'With declines visible in unrelated categories, it looks like weak consumer confidence was to blame for the pullback in consumer spending last month,' Adams wrote. This story was originally featured on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
13 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bad ‘vibes' may be having a bigger impact on the economy now
There has been a disconnect in recent years between the so-called soft economic data and the hard data as weak readings on consumer confidence didn't always translate to lower payrolls or GDP. But that may be changing as key buffers that propped up spending are disappearing, according to NerdWallet senior economist Elizabeth Renter. Americans used to say one thing about their feelings on the economy and do something else with their actual dollars. But that may be changing. The disconnect between weak readings on consumer confidence versus solid employment, income and GDP data was previously described as a 'vibecession' by economist Kyla Scanlon, who first used the term in her 2022 Substack post. The last vibecession hit as inflation was at the highest levels in more than 40 years, while an aggressive rate-hiking campaign from the Federal Reserve spiked borrowing costs, making auto loans and mortgages more expensive. But consumers continued to spend as the labor market remained robust. And aside from a brief dip in GDP, the economy avoided a recession. Confidence surveys also increasingly reflected partisan differences more than the actual economy. Fast forward to 2025. Consumer sentiment collapsed after President Donald Trump launched his trade war, and GDP shrank again, skewed by a rush to buy imported goods ahead of higher tariffs. Still, payrolls have held up, and inflation hasn't been as affected by tariffs as feared. But while sentiment recovered a bit after Trump postponed his highest tariff rates, it's still 20% below December 2024 levels. 'Despite this month's notable improvement, consumers remain guarded and concerned about the trajectory of the economy,' the most recent University of Michigan survey said. At the same time, the Trump administration is slashing spending and jobs, with ripple effects reaching contractors and even certain real estate markets. Businesses that are uncertain about the economy and the direction of tariffs have slowed hiring. Student-loan delinquencies are up, and AI is eliminating many entry-level jobs that once went to newly minted college graduates. Then there's oil prices, which have jumped since Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. The cumulative effect is taking a toll. 'I don't think the U.S. consumer has grown numb or blind to the headlines and economic risk—over the past month we've seen some sentiment scores rise slightly, but we have to think about where they were rising from,' Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, said in a note on Friday. 'A little bit better doesn't necessarily mean good, even if it might mean hopeful.' As a result, it's getting harder to dismiss the so-called soft data on the economy and focus instead on the hard data. That's as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said he and his fellow policymakers won't act on rates until the hard data on unemployment and inflation gives them a clear reason to. But the soft stuff may be leaking into the hard stuff. 'Unlike a few years ago, the 'vibes' now stand to have a greater impact on behavior, and thus the health of the economy,' Renter wrote. 'That's because unlike a few years ago, people don't have the luxury of easily stumbling into a better job or relying on excess savings and debt payment forbearances.' In fact, household debt is rebounding to pre-pandemic levels and beyond, eroding the ability to absorb an unexpected expense or job loss, she added. Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, similarly drew a direct line between consumer sentiment and actual spending. Digging into the May retail sales report, he noted that consumers didn't just pull back on durable goods like electronics and cars, which fell after an earlier jump to get ahead of tariffs, they also reined in spending on daily expenses like groceries and restaurants. Spending at building material and garden supply stores also saw big drops, suggesting less residential investment in home improvements. 'With declines visible in unrelated categories, it looks like weak consumer confidence was to blame for the pullback in consumer spending last month,' Adams wrote. This story was originally featured on
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
How Advisors Can Harness Media to Reach Gen Z
Meeting digital natives where they're at isn't always easy. But with more than a third of Gen Z investors citing influencers as a 'major factor' in their decision to buy, experts say that advisors — an aging demographic, by all accounts — need to be attuned to younger generations' habits. Nearly half of Gen Z uses social media as a primary source of investing information, compared with 42% of Millennials and 26% of Gen X, according to recent research from Finra and the CFA Institute. '[Social media is] where younger people are,' said Kyla Scanlon, an influencer and founder of the financial education company Bread. 'That can be difficult for a lot of [older advisors], where they're like, 'Oh, I prefer to do everything the old-fashioned way,' and that doesn't work with younger people … They get all their information on social media.' READ ALSO: Financial Uncertainty Spurs Anxiety and Depression and Most Americans Question Online Financial Information Rising costs of living and stagnant wages have contributed to feelings of financial nihilism — someone's sense that they'll never be financially stable, or homeowners, or retirement-ready — in every generation, but particularly Gen Z: Less than one in three Gen Zers is currently saving for retirement, a Bankrate survey showed, with 30% of this demographic 'feeling behind' on retirement savings. This generation is also twice as likely as the general population to say they don't know where to find an advisor, despite being, on average, 13 percentage points more likely to want one. There are several ways advisors can harness the power of the internet to expand their reach. Taking a 'personal approach' is key in an age of branding, since Gen Z is wary of ulterior motives in advertising and online financial advice, Scanlon said. 'The way that [advisors] should approach it is that character-based approach,' she said. 'It's not like, 'I will have Blackrock ETFs and VanEck ETFs.' It's, 'I am a person who's going to help you through this.'' Utilizing client testimonials can also be a powerful tool in the review-centric era of sites like Yelp. The company Wealthtender makes use of the SEC's lifting of the testimonial rule, which CEO Brian Thorp thinks advisors still aren't taking advantage of. Even though testimonials have been allowed since 2021, only 9.3% of SEC-registered firms are using them, he said. Into the Pod-verse. Podcasts can also be a key way for advisors to build out their Gen Z books, gain an online following, and establish credibility. Six out of 10 Gen Zers say that it's 'important that podcasts provide them with good tips and advice,' according to data from SiriusXM. Mitlin Financial founder Larry Sprung said his firm's podcast — whose guests are asked what brought them joy that day — has helped the firm establish its core message and set itself apart. 'We started leaning into it. We created shirts… We feel like, especially in the world today, there's so much divisiveness,' he said. 'Joy is somewhat universal. It has resonated with a lot of people.' This post first appeared on The Daily Upside. To receive financial advisor news, market insights, and practice management essentials, subscribe to our free Advisor Upside newsletter. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
23-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Everybody's Business: Wrestling with Taxes
All the economy is a stage this week, as the 'big beautiful' tax bill passed the House in the wee hours of Thursday morning, and millions of college graduates got their diplomas and set off into the the job market, competing with an ever growing army of robot workers. In the second episode of Everybody's Business from Bloomberg Businessweek, hosts Stacey Vanek Smith and Max Chafkin dive into the tax bill, the AI job threat, and the turning of (actual) lead into (actual) gold. The tax cut extension still has to pass the Senate, but the House version would add roughly $4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, and would be, by far, the most expensive policy the Trump administration has enacted. In spite of this, the tax bill has not gotten nearly the attention of other policies, including the Department of Government Efficiency (its cuts have not amounted to even 1% of the federal budget). But all the sound and fury signifying a rounding error is by design according to author and economic journalist Kyla Scanlon. Scanlon says you can learn a lot about the Trump Administration's economic policies by watching Wrestlemania. Scanlon argues Trump's dramatic, often erratic moves serve to create an emotional arc: Extreme fear of a 245% tariffs on Chinese goods, extreme relief when the tariffs drop to 30%, and a perceived triumph that a 'deal' has been made. Scanlon points out the president is no stranger to professional wrestling. He used to be a regular guest on WWE. Then Bloomberg reporter Sarah Frier joins to talk about AI and jobs. Fears are growing in the US workforce that jobs are being lost to artificial intelligence, and a new study estimates up to ⅓ of jobs in developed countries will be 'transformed' by AI. Frier looks at what jobs might be under threat and how real the worries are. Finally, Stacey and Max talk about a major development in commodities markets. Scientists were able to turn lead into gold! Stacey thinks this could be a turning point for the gold market and all mankind. Max has doubts…after all, all that glitters is not gold.
News.com.au
07-05-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Kyla Scanlon on Navigating Financial Advice on Social Media
Economic content creator Kyla Scanlon joins WSJ's Take On the Week to share what investors should consider when using social media for financial advice and how to avoid the 'bad actors' that are spreading misinformation or scamming people.
