Latest news with #KushGupta
Economic Times
12 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Shift debt allocation to short-term funds, maintain equity focus for stronger returns: Kush Gupta
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Q) June is turning out to be a volatile month for D-Street. How is 2H2025 likely to pan out for Indian markets? Do you think most of the negatives are behind us? Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Q) What does 50 bps cut mean for equity and bond markets? What should be an asset allocation strategy? Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Q) What is your take on Q4 earnings from India Inc.? Any hits and misses which you tracked in the results? Q) Nifty Bank hit a record high in June which suggests that there is a lot of interest in banking stocks. What is fueling rally in financials – is it the rate cut by RBI? Q) Which sectors are likely to remain in limelight in the 2H2024? Q) The tonality keeps changing from the US when it comes to 'Trade Talks'. Do you think it is still a relevant headwind for equity markets across the globe? Q) China equity markets are up in double digits while we have underperformed most EM peers. Does it make a case for global diversification? Q) Which sector(s) is/are looking overheated and why? As markets navigate through volatility and macro uncertainties, Kush Gupta, Director at SKG Investment & Advisory, remains optimistic about India's growth story in the second half of an exclusive conversation, he shares insights on why the worst may be behind for Dalal Street, how recent rate cuts by the RBI are setting the stage for a liquidity-driven rally, and why sectors like BFSI, Defence, and Infrastructure are poised to lead the next leg of also weighs in on global cues, including US-China trade tensions, the case for international diversification, and sectors that may be outlook blends cautious optimism with a strategic approach to asset allocation, making it a must-read for investors preparing for the next market move. Edited Excerpts –Last one month we have seen a lot of volatility, the result being that Nifty has been range bound, moving in a zig-zag pattern and not finding a one-way is mostly because of mixed news coming in and out and investor sentiment undecided. While there are green shoots in corporate earnings, interest rates, inflation and growing demand, there are certain critical issues that still unrest and foreign fund inflows are still a matter of concern. In H2 2025, I think we can expect this lingering negativity to go away, if India inc. numbers continue to get better we will see a one-sided upward movement in the sectors like Infra, Health, BFSI will continue to grow and support the broader market. India while growing at 6.5% is still the most promising emerging market in the global economy and there is only upside from rate cut of 50 bps in their latest MPC meeting was more than what was expected on the street. Following that up with a cut in CRR ratio has ensured massive liquidity push in the credit we talk about the impact on the investment side, we have now seen a one-sided reduction in the repo rate of 100 bps since February 2025 that will have a positive impact on the bond prices as they are inversely proportionate to the interest are advising clients to look at short term bond funds and expect accrual income in the future. On the equity side, we are expecting a liquidity boost, due to fall in the interest rates and fixed deposits investors are most likely to deploy less funds in these liquidity may boost up equities. Our asset allocation strategy is to shift Debt investments from long term funds to short term funds while not increasing overall allocation to debt because we are expecting equities to outperform in h2 we review Q4 earnings, aggregate profit after tax (PAT) for BSE 500 companies grew by 10% Y-o-Y and by 9% for the full FY25. There was sluggish domestic consumption and limited government spending in the first half due to elections and a volatile geo-political was a big step down from a stellar performance in FY24 that saw a 30% growth. BFSI sector stood out, contributing 1.84 % to the GDP and posted improved all stakeholders in the sector, MNCs, Private firms, Small & Midcap companies performed well. Metals, Telecom, Chemicals and Cement also supported positively to the growth. Certain sectors that showed sluggishness were PSUs, Industrials and could see a turnaround, we expect the PAT growth to improve in most sectors on account of increase in demand and stability on the global trade tariff wars could see a conclusion and that should bring a much needed respite and decrease are bullish on BFSI which will continue to shine and have another good year, Agriculture and Defence is also looking to outshine in FY we discussed earlier, the BFSI sector has stood out in FY25 as an outperformer. Bank Nifty hit a record high in June following earnings growth numbers and a positive outlook for was more positive is that we saw broad based growth across all verticals in BFSI. Banking, Wealth, Insurance across small , mid and large cap companies saw increase in we look at number, on Y-o-Y basis, there was a 16% increase in PAT, 14% increase in Non-Interest Income, 13% increase in retail advance and 14% increase in MSME advances. These are very healthy numbers across the rate cuts by RBI has definitely helped banks by providing excess liquidity but is not the only reason fuelling this rally. RBI rate cuts were as recent as February but we have seen good numbers coming in all through FY factors supporting this rally are more on the fundamental side, most banks now have significant revenues coming in from non-interest activities such as wealth and insurance. They are high margin businesses with a huge growth still underserved and under penetrated when it comes to financial services; hence, there is a significant head are sitting on credible data and are able to convert their existing CASA customers by cross selling and thus increasing their revenue per the credit side, the growth cycle is strong and is expected to grow at 13-14% which should continue to support profits. NBFC's credit growth outpaced banks and will continue to do so in are bullish on BFSI, with the recent RBI rate cut we can expect strong liquidity. There is scope for penetration for financial services, credit growth is growing strong. Supported with slight improvement in demand, we should see this sector giving another strong are also taking positive calls on Defence fulled by governments efforts to have a self-sutainable defence industry and reduce the dependency on order pipeline here looks solid and defence production is projected to reach from Rs. 1.75 Trillion in FY25 to Rs. 3 Trillion in FY 29. The ministry of defence has already singed a record 193 contracts worth Rs. 2 of these 177 contracts were handed to domestic companies, this shows the governments commitment of making India a defence manufacturer in their own and related sectors are also looking bullish, policy support is on their side particularly in the areas of renewable energy and power infra companies will continue to benefit from India's growing infra need in Roads, Airports, Dams and our view, US trade talks were never a major factor for equity markets in India. Yes, they played a role for equity markets across the globe, but for India it never posed a very big was a lot of stir created early on when the tariff wars started but soon it was realised that it was more of a bargaining stunt to get the stakeholders on the table to negotiate rather than a permanent change of structure in the global trade only point of concern is FII inflow into our equity markets. While our DIIs have been a major support, we can't ignore the validation that comes from FIIs and the quantum of their capital that ensures Indian equities are in Talks create a little uncertainty that results in institutional money being kept at bay, that's the only relevant headwind I think that equity in recent times have outperformed all the other EMs. This is a little ironical seeing how the main target of US trade wars is China, and their companies are facing an uphill battle in case tariffs are increased substantially.I would still refrain from considering the Chinese stock market as an investment destination. The main reason being the opaqueness of the country and the dictatorial laws that can be brought down by the government onto the private of giving double digit returns, the 3-yr performance of China based Mutual funds is still as low as 2%.For global diversification I think US tech stocks are a better bet. With AI changing the face of computing, I think the biggest beneficiaries will US companies who are the biggest as well, US companies are at the center of every digital / computer revolution that has happened and I don't see why it should be any different Indian markets, I think one can be cautious while investing in Auto. FY25 saw a modest growth of 6.4% driven by passenger and two wheelers while the commercial vehicles growth remained have seen an impressive performance over last 24 months with increased sales across all verticals but going forward I think it's a little over the EV industry is giving the sector some headache, while most auto companies have installed EVE capacities, consumer acceptance of EV is not growing at a desirable has been slow and due to EV related lack of Infra it is not expected to pick up very soon. We are also expecting a cyclical slowdown in sales, only silver lining are the SUV sales which continue to grow but other passenger vehicles along with two wheelers are looking bleak.
Time of India
12 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Shift debt allocation to short-term funds, maintain equity focus for stronger returns: Kush Gupta
As markets navigate through volatility and macro uncertainties, Kush Gupta, Director at SKG Investment & Advisory, remains optimistic about India's growth story in the second half of 2025. In an exclusive conversation, he shares insights on why the worst may be behind for Dalal Street, how recent rate cuts by the RBI are setting the stage for a liquidity-driven rally, and why sectors like BFSI, Defence, and Infrastructure are poised to lead the next leg of growth. Gupta also weighs in on global cues, including US-China trade tensions, the case for international diversification, and sectors that may be overheating. His outlook blends cautious optimism with a strategic approach to asset allocation, making it a must-read for investors preparing for the next market move. Edited Excerpts – Q) June is turning out to be a volatile month for D-Street. How is 2H2025 likely to pan out for Indian markets? Do you think most of the negatives are behind us? Live Events A) Last one month we have seen a lot of volatility, the result being that Nifty has been range bound, moving in a zig-zag pattern and not finding a one-way direction. This is mostly because of mixed news coming in and out and investor sentiment undecided. While there are green shoots in corporate earnings, interest rates, inflation and growing demand, there are certain critical issues that still persist. Geo-political unrest and foreign fund inflows are still a matter of concern. In H2 2025, I think we can expect this lingering negativity to go away, if India inc. numbers continue to get better we will see a one-sided upward movement in the market. Certain sectors like Infra, Health, BFSI will continue to grow and support the broader market. India while growing at 6.5% is still the most promising emerging market in the global economy and there is only upside from hereon. Q) What does 50 bps cut mean for equity and bond markets? What should be an asset allocation strategy? A) RBI's rate cut of 50 bps in their latest MPC meeting was more than what was expected on the street. Following that up with a cut in CRR ratio has ensured massive liquidity push in the credit market. If we talk about the impact on the investment side, we have now seen a one-sided reduction in the repo rate of 100 bps since February 2025 that will have a positive impact on the bond prices as they are inversely proportionate to the interest rates. We are advising clients to look at short term bond funds and expect accrual income in the future. On the equity side, we are expecting a liquidity boost, due to fall in the interest rates and fixed deposits investors are most likely to deploy less funds in these assets. Additional liquidity may boost up equities. Our asset allocation strategy is to shift Debt investments from long term funds to short term funds while not increasing overall allocation to debt because we are expecting equities to outperform in h2 2025. Q) What is your take on Q4 earnings from India Inc.? Any hits and misses which you tracked in the results? A) If we review Q4 earnings, aggregate profit after tax (PAT) for BSE 500 companies grew by 10% Y-o-Y and by 9% for the full FY25. There was sluggish domestic consumption and limited government spending in the first half due to elections and a volatile geo-political environment. This was a big step down from a stellar performance in FY24 that saw a 30% growth. BFSI sector stood out, contributing 1.84 % to the GDP and posted improved profits. Almost all stakeholders in the sector, MNCs, Private firms, Small & Midcap companies performed well. Metals, Telecom, Chemicals and Cement also supported positively to the growth. Certain sectors that showed sluggishness were PSUs, Industrials and IT. FY26 could see a turnaround, we expect the PAT growth to improve in most sectors on account of increase in demand and stability on the global trade front. US tariff wars could see a conclusion and that should bring a much needed respite and decrease volatility. We are bullish on BFSI which will continue to shine and have another good year, Agriculture and Defence is also looking to outshine in FY 26. Q) Nifty Bank hit a record high in June which suggests that there is a lot of interest in banking stocks. What is fueling rally in financials – is it the rate cut by RBI? A) As we discussed earlier, the BFSI sector has stood out in FY25 as an outperformer. Bank Nifty hit a record high in June following earnings growth numbers and a positive outlook for FY26. What was more positive is that we saw broad based growth across all verticals in BFSI. Banking, Wealth, Insurance across small , mid and large cap companies saw increase in earnings. If we look at number, on Y-o-Y basis, there was a 16% increase in PAT, 14% increase in Non-Interest Income, 13% increase in retail advance and 14% increase in MSME advances. These are very healthy numbers across the board. Recent rate cuts by RBI has definitely helped banks by providing excess liquidity but is not the only reason fuelling this rally. RBI rate cuts were as recent as February but we have seen good numbers coming in all through FY 25. Key factors supporting this rally are more on the fundamental side, most banks now have significant revenues coming in from non-interest activities such as wealth and insurance. They are high margin businesses with a huge growth potential. India still underserved and under penetrated when it comes to financial services; hence, there is a significant head room. Banks are sitting on credible data and are able to convert their existing CASA customers by cross selling and thus increasing their revenue per client. On the credit side, the growth cycle is strong and is expected to grow at 13-14% which should continue to support profits. NBFC's credit growth outpaced banks and will continue to do so in FY26. Q) Which sectors are likely to remain in limelight in the 2H2024? A) We are bullish on BFSI, with the recent RBI rate cut we can expect strong liquidity. There is scope for penetration for financial services, credit growth is growing strong. Supported with slight improvement in demand, we should see this sector giving another strong year. We are also taking positive calls on Defence fulled by governments efforts to have a self-sutainable defence industry and reduce the dependency on imports. The order pipeline here looks solid and defence production is projected to reach from Rs. 1.75 Trillion in FY25 to Rs. 3 Trillion in FY 29. The ministry of defence has already singed a record 193 contracts worth Rs. 2 Trillion. Out of these 177 contracts were handed to domestic companies, this shows the governments commitment of making India a defence manufacturer in their own right. Infrastructure and related sectors are also looking bullish, policy support is on their side particularly in the areas of renewable energy and power generation. Big infra companies will continue to benefit from India's growing infra need in Roads, Airports, Dams and Railways. Q) The tonality keeps changing from the US when it comes to 'Trade Talks'. Do you think it is still a relevant headwind for equity markets across the globe? A) In our view, US trade talks were never a major factor for equity markets in India. Yes, they played a role for equity markets across the globe, but for India it never posed a very big problem. There was a lot of stir created early on when the tariff wars started but soon it was realised that it was more of a bargaining stunt to get the stakeholders on the table to negotiate rather than a permanent change of structure in the global trade ecosystem. My only point of concern is FII inflow into our equity markets. While our DIIs have been a major support, we can't ignore the validation that comes from FIIs and the quantum of their capital that ensures Indian equities are in green. Trade Talks create a little uncertainty that results in institutional money being kept at bay, that's the only relevant headwind I think that matters. Q) China equity markets are up in double digits while we have underperformed most EM peers. Does it make a case for global diversification? A) China equity in recent times have outperformed all the other EMs. This is a little ironical seeing how the main target of US trade wars is China, and their companies are facing an uphill battle in case tariffs are increased substantially. I would still refrain from considering the Chinese stock market as an investment destination. The main reason being the opaqueness of the country and the dictatorial laws that can be brought down by the government onto the private sector. Inspite of giving double digit returns, the 3-yr performance of China based Mutual funds is still as low as 2%. For global diversification I think US tech stocks are a better bet. With AI changing the face of computing, I think the biggest beneficiaries will US companies who are the biggest stakeholders. Historically as well, US companies are at the center of every digital / computer revolution that has happened and I don't see why it should be any different now. Q) Which sector(s) is/are looking overheated and why? A) In Indian markets, I think one can be cautious while investing in Auto. FY25 saw a modest growth of 6.4% driven by passenger and two wheelers while the commercial vehicles growth remained flat. We have seen an impressive performance over last 24 months with increased sales across all verticals but going forward I think it's a little over heated. Also, the EV industry is giving the sector some headache, while most auto companies have installed EVE capacities, consumer acceptance of EV is not growing at a desirable pace. Adoption has been slow and due to EV related lack of Infra it is not expected to pick up very soon. We are also expecting a cyclical slowdown in sales, only silver lining are the SUV sales which continue to grow but other passenger vehicles along with two wheelers are looking bleak. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Mint
30-04-2025
- Business
- Mint
Expert view: Strong India-focused stocks may become multibaggers in the next bull run, says SKG Investment's director
Expert view: Kush Gupta, Director at SKG Investment & Advisory, believes companies with robust business models linked to the Indian growth story at its root level can become multibaggers in the next bull cycle. In an interview with Mint, Gupta shared his views on small and mid-cap segments, Q4 earnings trends, and sectors he is positive about. The Indian stock market may remain volatile in the short term. The geopolitical factors are playing a bigger role than we had expected, mainly due to the tariff wars and the recent development on the India-Pakistan border. A few key trigger points include the conclusion of US trade policies after a 90-day pause, a reduction in tariffs, and the US reaching an amicable solution with China and other major trading partners. We expect positivity-backed buying in the market. Q4FY25 results are also in focus. Although India Inc. did not perform well in the preceding two quarters, expectations are high now, and market momentum is very much dependent on corporate earnings. Specific sectors such as telecom, metals and finance are set to outperform. We could see the sentiment shift due to their results, but the broader market is still shaky. Another vital trigger is how the FPIS will behave in the coming one to two months. Their selling has weighed on Indian equities recently, but we hope this trend will stabilise. As valuations moderate, we will see an easing of pressure and a floor being created for buying opportunities. This will shape the domestic market in the short to medium term. Both mid- and small-cap stocks have seen a correction for the past six months. Their indices corrected almost 20 per cent at their lowest point before recovering, but they are still down 13 per cent from the 52-week high. In the broader market, stocks with low liquidity were hit the hardest, with some correcting as much as 50 per cent due to selling pressure. The current valuations provide stock-specific opportunities where companies with strong fundamentals have taken a hit purely because of market sentiment. Companies with robust business models linked to the Indian growth story at its root level can become multibaggers in the next bull cycle. I would not advise investors to dabble on a broader level and invest in small or mid-cap funds, as we face uncertain times due to tariff wars. We may see a correction at the index level, and valuations may come down. We should stick to stock-specific investments that offer certainty of growth and are not too dependent on the geopolitical crises the world is witnessing right now. The biggest risk in the small and mid-cap space is liquidity. In trying times, investors sell their most volatile assets and tend to stick with safer investments such as large-cap companies. This selling pressure is too much to take for stocks that have low liquidity, and hence, prices correct 5-10 per cent easily on a bad day. With an increase in volatility, we witness more such incidents, and four or five bad trading days can lead to a major correction in small and mid-cap companies. Investors should be a little careful with their selection at this point. This is not the time to bet on large-cap stocks on a broad level. Instead of investing in a large number of companies, one should pick and choose fewer companies and invest in those with strong growth. A selling spree will always affect the broader market and take down sentiment-driven stocks rather than fundamentals. So, to avoid accumulating huge losses, one should assume that sentiment is still not positive, there will be more loss-making bets, so choose your stocks wisely. The last three to four years have seen a massive inflow into small and mid-cap mutual funds. In fact, many AMCS (asset management companies) had stopped taking fresh applications for their funds because the inflows exceeded their expectations, and they were not prepared to deploy such large sums. Small and mid-cap space is tricky, and while all fund managers would welcome funds, it can get difficult to maintain a good return and generate alpha consistently in this asset space. The primary reason for this lack of investable options is the limited scope of continuing to invest in the same companies. Indian markets still have a long way to go in terms of supplying good companies with strong fundamentals and corporate governance. While investors have started coming in strong, the supply side still needs to generate more conviction among the fund managers. Hence, when the inflow increases and funds have to be deployed, AMCS has no choice but to relax its filtration processes while selecting stocks. This, in turn, deteriorates the quality of investments to make way for quantity. This cycle works fine when the sentiment is positive and market participation is high, but when things turn around, the not-so-good companies drag down the overall portfolios. SEBI is on a mission to make it easier for more companies to get listed on the stock exchanges while maintaining the financial criteria. As the small and midcap space broadens, more opportunities will be created to deploy funds and maintain the quality of investments as per the desirable standards. I am bullish on IT, healthcare, FMCG, infrastructure and renewables from a medium-term perspective. These emerging trends of 2025 will see significant growth; government policies, growing demand, and urbanisation will drive them. We have seen a rise in income in various parts of the country, which will drive consumption for fast-moving goods. The healthcare sector has seen a remarkable growth, with the market estimated to reach $320 billion by 2028, up from $180 billion in 2023. Additionally, the number of healthcare policies has been on the rise with increased focus on self-care and awareness. In the renewable sector, the Indian government has played a pivotal role by introducing several initiatives to promote capex, including the production-linked scheme (PLI) for solar modules and the National Hydrogen Mission. With favourable incentives, investing in this sector can yield attractive returns. The IT sector has always been a major contributor to India's GDP, with an approximate share of 7.5 - 8 per cent. With the adoption of AI, cloud computing, and 5G, global demand for tech services will only increase, providing Indian companies with a great opportunity to cater to the demand. Modi government has focused relentlessly on infra growth since 2014, going forward I expect the trend to continue. With projects like Smart City Mission, demand for construction materials, urban housing, roads and real estate expansion will follow. This industry will continue the momentum in the next two to three years. Q4 earnings so far have been mixed, with a few sectors standing out. Metals, telecom, healthcare, and some companies in the BFSI space have given positive surprises. With easing raw material costs and a safeguard duty on steel imports imposed by the government, steelmakers will post sharp profit growth. In the telecom space, Jio Platforms reported a strong growth of 25.7 per cent year-on-year with an increase in net profits due to the hike in telecom tariffs imposed in early July 2024. Bharti Airtel, the other major telecom player, is also expected to deliver good results, with most brokerages expecting a 27 per cent Yoy growth in adjusted PAT and 90 per cent YoY growth in adjusted PAT. The healthcare sector is anticipated to see 16-19 per cent revenue growth YoY, with the hospital industry seeing a rise in bed additions and revenue per bed. In the financial space, a steady net interest margin, robust asset quality, and improved balance sheets will see companies beating expectations. The NPAS are at a 13-year low. Massive digital transformation is increasing penetration into semi-urban and rural markets. Fintech adoption and regulatory reforms are making it a key driver for growth with promising mid- to long-term returns. For the past 18-24 months, investors have not been very interested in the banking space. With a high PE (price-to-earnings ratio) and slow growth rates, most analysts have taken a cautious stance. But things seem to be changing since the beginning of 2025. Q4 of FY25 saw growth in retail loans, corporate credit demand is picking up, SME advances have grown, and affordable housing finance has shown strong potential. This has created an opportunity window to look at banking stocks with a 2-3 year horizon. My pick will be ICICI Bank, which has shown robust growth in advances and deposits. ICICI's net interest margin (NIM) stood at 4.41 per cent, which is great for a large bank. It has maintained a sharp focus on its operational efficiency, kept its credit cost low and ensured the asset quality remains high on its loan books. The loan-to-deposit ratio is also healthy at 82.4 per cent. These vital signs show that the bank is moving into a growth phase and is well-positioned to cater to India's financial demands. Gold has been one of the most exciting investments to follow in the past 24 months. It has given a return that nobody expected and one that has surpassed many indices and proved a lot of analysts wrong. It has doubled in the last 4 years, giving a CAGR return of 19 per cent, while the Nifty 50 gave a return of 14 per cent. Gold prices always benefit from global uncertainty, and we have seen plenty of that recently. My outlook is that in the coming six to nine months, we could see gold prices moving up. The tariff wars will most likely have some undesirable results, and geopolitical tensions will continue for the short to mid-term. In this scenario, gold is likely to gain and be a safe haven for investors. On the investment side, I would recommend that those already invested may not need to increase exposure, as they will most likely increase their average price. Still, those who don't have gold in their portfolio can add some for diversification, as it could act as an insurance policy if the tariff wars continue for longer than expected. Read all market-related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary. First Published: 30 Apr 2025, 02:44 PM IST
Economic Times
23-04-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Gold, infra, FMCG, and fixed income - Kush Gupta's dual strategy to tackle market volatility
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Kush Gupta, Director at SKG Investment & Advisory, shares his insights on navigating the current market volatility with a well-rounded investment approach. Amid global uncertainties and tariff tensions, Gupta advocates a dual strategy—diversifying into domestic growth sectors like infrastructure, FMCG, and agriculture, while also building exposure to safe-haven assets like gold and fixed income instruments. He believes that with valuations turning attractive and India's consumption story intact, long-term investors have a real opportunity to create wealth, even in turbulent times. Edited Excerpts – ADVERTISEMENT Q) It has certainly been a roller coaster ride for investors. Do you believe the market has provided long-term investors with a genuine opportunity to build wealth over time?A) Equity markets always come along with their fair share of excitement and volatility. For a long-term investor, these events provide a clear opportunity to add quality stocks to their portfolio and be part of businesses that will show growth when the tide turns over. The Nifty50 Index has recovered approximately 15% from its peak and the Index PE is down to 20.5, bringing it to the levels we saw two years ago. This is also the first major downfall since the V shaped recovery after COVID-19. I think it is a good time to start investing again and build a portfolio that could generate wealth in the next bull run. Indian economy is still young with a lot of head room for are becoming a consumer-led economy, once that can sustain global shocks and continue on its right path to provide investors with year-on-year portfolio returns. Q) What is your view on the tariff war, which has now escalated into other related areas? What kind of impact do you foresee on the markets, economy, bonds, and currency? ADVERTISEMENT A) The tariff wars have been having global ramifications and will possibly change geopolitics for years to come. Most economies around the world rely on exports of goods & services to generate income, from larger countries like China to smaller ones like Bangladesh, Vietnam are all heavily dependent on exports.I think that a continuation of these tariff wars will create a hostile business environment with long term negative impacts on the markets. ADVERTISEMENT Currency movement across the world will slow down, foreign investments will reduce, and supply chain management will impact production which could lead to inflation in several trade will reduce, which will lead to cost-cutting measures, decrease capex and halt expansion plans in several key sectors that rely heavily on it. ADVERTISEMENT Q) The RBI responded with a rate cut and also slashed the GDP forecast. Do you believe the slowdown has just begun and will affect India Inc. over the next few quarters?A) The much-anticipated rate cut by RBI was in line with the monetary policy, it has come with the intention to easy money circulation and propel growth in the this was expected, the slashing of GDP forecast was not until the tariff wars started. With US imposing very high tariffs and sending markets into a frenzy, it is indicated that global GDP growth could slow down to 2.3% in 2025. ADVERTISEMENT To assume that this will not affect India will be naïve, while our US exports only account for 1% of our GDP, we may not see a very big direct impact but a slow down across the world and specifically in US will definitely impact India lining is that India is more of a consumer led economy rather than an export led, so we are better positioned to navigate this storm.I think Q1 & Q2 of FY26 will be under strain but towards the end of 2025 we will find our feet back on the ground. Q) It's true that no one can time the markets or predict the bottom. But can we say that the worst is probably behind us? Should long-term investors consider deploying cash if they have a 3–5 year horizon? A) I have always been an admirer and firm believer in Indian markets. Our growth story is consumption led with increasing demand in both rural and urban demographic advantage ensures enough head room for more growth. If investors have a 3–5-year horizon then I think one can consider entering the markets an emerging economy we are well positioned by not relying on exports as much as other developing countries, so our fundamentals are still in place and are not shaken by these tariff global shake-up will find its ground and then growth economies will show promising numbers. Much of the selling in the Indian stock markets is because of sentiment and uncertainty and not because of change of narrative regarding the Indian growth story. Investors looking to deploy cash can start as the valuations look attractive with Nifty having corrected almost 15% from its peak. Q) What are your expectations from India Inc. for the March quarter? A) Indian investors are eagerly waiting for Q4 earnings numbers to start coming in. Q3 of FY25 was disappointing with the earnings slowdown across most of the sectors. We expect this quarter to outperform the last one as there were some green shoots across certain sectors like FMCG and sentiment across Auto and durables was looking strong. Historically we have seen that end of the financial year drives higher revenue in these sectors. Government spending on infrastructure also increases in the tail end of the financial year, which is good for capital goods, infra companies and cement. Structurally, the last quarter has its advantages hence expectations are higher, along with the fact that a cyclic upside in earnings after a disappointing two quarters is also a strong reason.I think investors will get a much needed breather once the results start coming in. Q) What strategies have you adopted to safeguard your portfolio from the current volatility? Have you increased or decreased your stake in any particular sector? A) We have primarily focused on two things to safeguard our portfolio from the current volatility. First is diversification into commodities, I think while gold has gone up very significantly , its bull run may not be over growing concerns over global trade and instability of dollar, gold still remains go to safe haven across the is sectoral calls, we are looking at sectors that are linked to consumer growth and reflect India's domestic needs such as Infra, FMCG, Agriculture and Defence.I think these are essential pockets that are sustained from our internal ecosystem and global volatility does not shake them as a juncture where international relations are strained, a defensive and inclusive approach towards investing is a good tactical call. Q) Do you believe fixed income or bonds should now become an important part of an investor's portfolio? A) Fixed income bonds or any other debt instrument play an important role in any investor's we advise our clients, we always have an allocation in mind towards debt funds/debentures and bonds depending upon their age, risk profile, income and other from the clients' profile, often it's the markets that makes you rethink your allocation, and right now we are at that moment.I think in the given scenario we can expect further rate cuts and investing in corporate bonds with a fixed return for the next 24-36 months is a good RBI is doing a good job at currency management and due to India's fiscal discipline our fixed income market is attractive to global the tariff wards continue, we could also see downfall in dollar and rupee appreciating which will further make Indian bonds more attractive to foreign investors. I see the volatility in equity markets as a good opportunity to create wealth in the bond markets for investors. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
23-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Gold, infra, FMCG, and fixed income - Kush Gupta's dual strategy to tackle market volatility
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Kush Gupta, Director at SKG Investment & Advisory, shares his insights on navigating the current market volatility with a well-rounded investment global uncertainties and tariff tensions, Gupta advocates a dual strategy—diversifying into domestic growth sectors like infrastructure FMCG , and agriculture, while also building exposure to safe-haven assets like gold and fixed income believes that with valuations turning attractive and India's consumption story intact, long-term investors have a real opportunity to create wealth, even in turbulent times. Edited Excerpts –A) Equity markets always come along with their fair share of excitement and volatility. For a long-term investor, these events provide a clear opportunity to add quality stocks to their portfolio and be part of businesses that will show growth when the tide turns Nifty50 Index has recovered approximately 15% from its peak and the Index PE is down to 20.5, bringing it to the levels we saw two years ago. This is also the first major downfall since the V shaped recovery after COVID-19.I think it is a good time to start investing again and build a portfolio that could generate wealth in the next bull run. Indian economy is still young with a lot of head room for are becoming a consumer-led economy, once that can sustain global shocks and continue on its right path to provide investors with year-on-year portfolio returns.A) The tariff wars have been having global ramifications and will possibly change geopolitics for years to come. Most economies around the world rely on exports of goods & services to generate income, from larger countries like China to smaller ones like Bangladesh, Vietnam are all heavily dependent on exports.I think that a continuation of these tariff wars will create a hostile business environment with long term negative impacts on the movement across the world will slow down, foreign investments will reduce, and supply chain management will impact production which could lead to inflation in several trade will reduce, which will lead to cost-cutting measures, decrease capex and halt expansion plans in several key sectors that rely heavily on it.A) The much-anticipated rate cut by RBI was in line with the monetary policy, it has come with the intention to easy money circulation and propel growth in the this was expected, the slashing of GDP forecast was not until the tariff wars started. With US imposing very high tariffs and sending markets into a frenzy, it is indicated that global GDP growth could slow down to 2.3% in assume that this will not affect India will be naïve, while our US exports only account for 1% of our GDP, we may not see a very big direct impact but a slow down across the world and specifically in US will definitely impact India lining is that India is more of a consumer led economy rather than an export led, so we are better positioned to navigate this storm.I think Q1 & Q2 of FY26 will be under strain but towards the end of 2025 we will find our feet back on the ground.A) I have always been an admirer and firm believer in Indian markets. Our growth story is consumption led with increasing demand in both rural and urban demographic advantage ensures enough head room for more growth. If investors have a 3–5-year horizon then I think one can consider entering the markets an emerging economy we are well positioned by not relying on exports as much as other developing countries, so our fundamentals are still in place and are not shaken by these tariff global shake-up will find its ground and then growth economies will show promising numbers. Much of the selling in the Indian stock markets is because of sentiment and uncertainty and not because of change of narrative regarding the Indian growth looking to deploy cash can start as the valuations look attractive with Nifty having corrected almost 15% from its peak.A) Indian investors are eagerly waiting for Q4 earnings numbers to start coming in. Q3 of FY25 was disappointing with the earnings slowdown across most of the sectors. We expect this quarter to outperform the last one as there were some green shoots across certain sectors like FMCG and sentiment across Auto and durables was looking strong. Historically we have seen that end of the financial year drives higher revenue in these spending on infrastructure also increases in the tail end of the financial year, which is good for capital goods, infra companies and the last quarter has its advantages hence expectations are higher, along with the fact that a cyclic upside in earnings after a disappointing two quarters is also a strong reason.I think investors will get a much needed breather once the results start coming in.A) We have primarily focused on two things to safeguard our portfolio from the current volatility. First is diversification into commodities, I think while gold has gone up very significantly , its bull run may not be over growing concerns over global trade and instability of dollar, gold still remains go to safe haven across the is sectoral calls, we are looking at sectors that are linked to consumer growth and reflect India's domestic needs such as Infra, FMCG, Agriculture and Defence.I think these are essential pockets that are sustained from our internal ecosystem and global volatility does not shake them as a juncture where international relations are strained, a defensive and inclusive approach towards investing is a good tactical call.A) Fixed income bonds or any other debt instrument play an important role in any investor's we advise our clients, we always have an allocation in mind towards debt funds/debentures and bonds depending upon their age, risk profile, income and other from the clients' profile, often it's the markets that makes you rethink your allocation, and right now we are at that moment.I think in the given scenario we can expect further rate cuts and investing in corporate bonds with a fixed return for the next 24-36 months is a good RBI is doing a good job at currency management and due to India's fiscal discipline our fixed income market is attractive to global the tariff wards continue, we could also see downfall in dollar and rupee appreciating which will further make Indian bonds more attractive to foreign investors.I see the volatility in equity markets as a good opportunity to create wealth in the bond markets for investors.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
