Latest news with #KesslerSyndrome
NDTV
19-05-2025
- Science
- NDTV
As Satellite Numbers Soar, Experts Warn Earth's Space May Soon Hit Its Limit
Ever wondered how many satellites are circling Earth right now? As of May 2025, over 11,700 active satellites are orbiting the planet, and the number is rising at a record pace. The dramatic surge is driven largely by private space firms like SpaceX, whose Starlink constellation alone accounts for over 7,400 satellites, or 60% of all active ones. In 2024, a rocket was launched every 34 hours on average, adding more than 2,800 new satellites to orbit in just one year, Live Science reported. According to astronomers and researchers, this satellite boom is just getting started. Experts predict that the number of active satellites could climb to 100,000 before stabilising, raising serious concerns about space traffic, debris, pollution, and interference with astronomy. What's Causing the Satellite Surge? The rise of commercial 'mega constellations', massive networks of satellites designed to provide global internet and communication services, is a key factor. Besides SpaceX's Starlink, other players like Amazon (Project Kuiper), OneWeb, and Chinese companies are aggressively expanding their presence in space. Astronomer Jonathan McDowell of Harvard & Smithsonian estimates the total number of satellites, including inactive or decommissioned ones, is close to 14,900. What's the Limit? Scientists refer to the "carrying capacity" of low-Earth orbit (LEO) - the maximum number of satellites that can safely coexist without a high risk of collisions. Experts believe that the limit is around 100,000 active satellites. At current launch rates, this could be reached before 2050. Why It Matters While satellites bring clear benefits like global connectivity and disaster monitoring, the surge raises multiple red flags: Space junk: Old satellites and rocket parts can crash into each other, creating debris that endangers missions and astronauts. Kessler Syndrome: A domino effect of collisions that could make certain orbits unusable. Light pollution: Bright satellites interfere with telescopes and stargazing, leaving streaks in astronomical images. Radio interference: Signals from satellites, especially Starlink, are disrupting sensitive radio astronomy. Atmospheric pollution: Rockets emit greenhouse gases; reentering satellites release metals that might disrupt Earth's magnetic field. What Experts Are Saying "It causes a space traffic management problem, interferes with astronomy, and creates atmospheric pollution," Canadian astronomer Aaron Boley told Live Science. He and other scientists argue for slowing down satellite launches until international space regulations catch up. While these networks help bridge the digital divide, especially in remote regions, experts are calling for caution and global cooperation to ensure that the benefits of satellite technology don't come at too high a cost for both space and Earth.
Yahoo
07-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Outer Space around earth is already pretty crowded. Tech firms are racing to pack even more satellites in
Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience. Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience. Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience. Generate Key Takeaways The outer space around the Earth is already pretty crowded. Now, tech firms are racing to add more. There are already thousands of satellites hurdling around the Earth in low orbit - many of them are in groups working together called constellations to provide high-speed internet and communication services. The largest is SpaceX's Starlink, which is made up of more than 7,000 satellites that have been launched since 2019. Now, Amazon is jockeying for position alongside its competitor. This week, it launched the first 27 satellites for its Kuiper broadband internet constellation. The company must launch half of its planned constellation of 3,200 satellites by July of next year to retain its federal license. SpaceX also plans to send up tens of thousands more. But, these and other satellite companies — such as the Chinese internet constellations Guowang and Qianfan — are setting up a space future fraught with peril, according to experts. More satellites shooting around the Earth at 17,500 miles per hour will mean a greater chance of potentially calamitous collisions. 'If we don't do something to start correcting this problem, in 50 years Kessler Syndrome is going to be a reality and low-Earth orbit is going to useless,' Dr. John Crassidis, a professor at the University of Buffalo who works with NASA, the military, and other agencies to monitor space debris, told The Independent. Amazon launched the first of its Kuiper satellites this week, hoping to become competitive with SpaceX's Starlink constellation. But, low-Earth orbit is already crowded and experts say it could get a whole lot worse. (AFP via Getty Images) Kessler Syndrome is a nightmare space scenario in which the number of satellites and orbital debris is so high that collisions occur, generating a cascading series of collisions. Hugh Lewis, a professor of astronautics at the U.K.-based University of Southampton who served as a U.K. Space Agency delegate to the European Space Agency's Space Mission Planning Advisory Group said that Earth has been headed toward a perilous future for decades, but a one-off event isn't the biggest concern. 'I just don't think that we can safely manage the number of satellites that are being contemplated; not with our existing knowledge of the space environment,' he said. When the satellites crash into each other is anyone's guess, according to Dr. Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. 'We'll see more and more satellites doing avoidance maneuvers. What is the point at which they start to actually crash into one another because the algorithms aren't good enough? We just don't know,' he explained. In addition to constellation satellites, there are tens of thousands of other objects and hundreds of thousands of even smaller pieces that cannot be monitored. Active satellites have already been damaged by debris and the International Space Station needs to maneuver away from an object should the chance of a collision exceed one-in-10,000. Starlink is moving satellites closer to the space station, McDowell noted. Chinese systems are going to higher orbits, where and could remain for centuries. There are already tens of thousands of other objects and hundreds of thousands of smaller pieces in low-Earth orbit. The smaller pieces are still concerning (ESA) Crassidis called the current situation 'uncharted territory.' 'But, it's stuff between one centimeter and 10 that we're really worried about because we can't see that stuff. I'm worried about astronauts. They're exposed when they're doing their spacewalks, and a piece of debris that size can go right through them,' he said. But, a solution to these worrying consequences has not yet been found. SpaceX is bringing down older satellites, but there are questions about the impact of that decision on Earth's atmosphere. There are also regulatory questions. To McDowell, there's the appearance of regulation, but it's pretty loose. To Lewis, the regulation is there, but is interpreted differently by each nation, resulting in an uneven playing field. 'In principle, they say what altitudes they're going to be at, at least. But it turns out that the plus or minus on that is so big as to make it almost meaningless,' McDowell said. SpaceX has been launching its Starlink satellites since 2019 and have more planned. (Getty Images) 'We don't have any modern day treaties. We gotta get some treaties, and we know the bad actors are Russia and China,' Crassidis said. 'We need to get some treaties in place to slow down the growth and buys us the time because today's science fiction is tomorrow's reality.' There are also the scientific costs to consider, although SpaceX has accommodated astronomers' concerns about brightness. The satellites can block out the stars, and potentially other objects. Their radio emissions can also disrupt work in deep space. As NASA heads to the moon and Mars, it will need to navigate these impacts and the debris field. That will be challenging for the space agency and tech firms to manage in the coming decades. 'Everything's getting harder, I think. I don't see any change to that, At some point, something will go wrong, I have no doubt,' said Lewis.
The Independent
07-05-2025
- Science
- The Independent
Outer Space around earth is already pretty crowded. Tech firms are racing to pack even more satellites in
The outer space around the Earth is already pretty crowded. Now, tech firms are racing to add more. There are already thousands of satellites hurdling around the Earth in low orbit - many of them are in groups working together called constellations to provide high-speed internet and communication services. The largest is SpaceX's Starlink, which is made up of more than 7,000 satellites that have been launched since 2019. Now, Amazon is jockeying for position alongside its competitor. This week, it launched the first 27 satellites for its Kuiper broadband internet constellation. The company must launch half of its planned constellation of 3,200 satellites by July of next year to retain its federal license. SpaceX also plans to send up tens of thousands more. But, these and other satellite companies — such as the Chinese internet constellations Guowang and Qianfan — are setting up a space future fraught with peril, according to experts. More satellites shooting around the Earth at 17,500 miles per hour will mean a greater chance of potentially calamitous collisions. 'If we don't do something to start correcting this problem, in 50 years Kessler Syndrome is going to be a reality and low-Earth orbit is going to useless,' Dr. John Crassidis, a professor at the University of Buffalo who works with NASA, the military, and other agencies to monitor space debris, told The Independent. Kessler Syndrome is a nightmare space scenario in which the number of satellites and orbital debris is so high that collisions occur, generating a cascading series of collisions. Hugh Lewis, a professor of astronautics at the U.K.-based University of Southampton who served as a U.K. Space Agency delegate to the European Space Agency's Space Mission Planning Advisory Group said that Earth has been headed toward a perilous future for decades, but a one-off event isn't the biggest concern. 'I just don't think that we can safely manage the number of satellites that are being contemplated; not with our existing knowledge of the space environment,' he said. When the satellites crash into each other is anyone's guess, according to Dr. Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. 'We'll see more and more satellites doing avoidance maneuvers. What is the point at which they start to actually crash into one another because the algorithms aren't good enough? We just don't know,' he explained. In addition to constellation satellites, there are tens of thousands of other objects and hundreds of thousands of even smaller pieces that cannot be monitored. Active satellites have already been damaged by debris and the International Space Station needs to maneuver away from an object should the chance of a collision exceed one-in-10,000. Starlink is moving satellites closer to the space station, McDowell noted. Chinese systems are going to higher orbits, where and could remain for centuries. Crassidis called the current situation 'uncharted territory.' 'But, it's stuff between one centimeter and 10 that we're really worried about because we can't see that stuff. I'm worried about astronauts. They're exposed when they're doing their spacewalks, and a piece of debris that size can go right through them,' he said. But, a solution to these worrying consequences has not yet been found. SpaceX is bringing down older satellites, but there are questions about the impact of that decision on Earth's atmosphere. There are also regulatory questions. To McDowell, there's the appearance of regulation, but it's pretty loose. To Lewis, the regulation is there, but is interpreted differently by each nation, resulting in an uneven playing field. 'In principle, they say what altitudes they're going to be at, at least. But it turns out that the plus or minus on that is so big as to make it almost meaningless,' McDowell said. 'We don't have any modern day treaties. We gotta get some treaties, and we know the bad actors are Russia and China,' Crassidis said. 'We need to get some treaties in place to slow down the growth and buys us the time because today's science fiction is tomorrow's reality.' There are also the scientific costs to consider, although SpaceX has accommodated astronomers' concerns about brightness. The satellites can block out the stars, and potentially other objects. Their radio emissions can also disrupt work in deep space. As NASA heads to the moon and Mars, it will need to navigate these impacts and the debris field. That will be challenging for the space agency and tech firms to manage in the coming decades. 'Everything's getting harder, I think. I don't see any change to that, At some point, something will go wrong, I have no doubt,' said Lewis.
Yahoo
14-04-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
3 big hunks of space junk crash to Earth every day — and it's only going to get worse
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. At least three old satellites or rocket bodies fall back to Earth every day, a new report reveals. And experts warn that the number of objects returning from space is set to increase, a possible concern for the health of Earth's atmosphere and for the safety of humans on the ground. The Space Environment Report, released by the European Space Agency (ESA) on April 1, found that some 1,200 "intact objects" reentered the atmosphere in 2024, in addition to countless space debris fragments. Despite this incessant rain of junk battering the atmosphere, the amount of space debris increased over the course of 2024, with an estimated 45,700 objects larger than 3 inches (10 centimeters) now orbiting the planet. Some of the new junk consists of satellites that naturally reached the end of their lives. Related: Kessler Syndrome and the space debris problem But on top of that, several orbital collisions and explosions added at least 3,000 new trackable fragments over the course of 2024. In addition to that, there are currently about 9,300 active spacecraft circling Earth, and further launches continue to add more. The new report "underlines that space activity has now increased to the point where we are having a real effect on the environment both in space and in the upper atmosphere," astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, perhaps the world's leading expert on space debris, told McDowell was not a part of the team that compiled the report. The astrophysicist, who keeps close tabs on orbital traffic, said that on the day of the interview (April 4), at least three objects had returned from space — two of SpaceX's Starlink broadband satellites and a 43-year-old Russian spy satellite called Kosmos 1340. Starlink satellites, according to McDowell, make up the majority of stuff that falls back to Earth these days, and their numbers are only going to grow. "If SpaceX continues with their plans to expand their Starlink constellation to 30,000 satellites, then we'll be looking at 15 reentries per day," McDowell said. "In addition to that, Amazon is about to start deploying its Kuiper constellation. We're also seeing Chinese megaconstellation projects starting to go up. So, in the next five to 10 years, we will see a corresponding increase in the number of satellites being retired." Constellation operators tend to replace their satellites with newer models every five years or so. To prevent further accumulation of space debris, they strive to remove every low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite from its position within five years from its mission's end. As a result of these reentries, however, the amount of space junk burning up in the upper layers of the atmosphere is increasing, which worries some atmospheric scientists. Satellites are mostly made of aluminum, which produces aluminum oxide when burned. Scientists have long known that aluminum oxide can accelerate ozone depletion and contribute to thermal changes in the upper atmosphere. Eloise Marais, a professor in atmospheric chemistry at University College London, described the three-a-day reentry rate as "an unchartered territory" and an "alarming" trend. "The impact on the atmosphere is inevitably greater than it has ever been, as more ozone-destroying pollutants, including aluminum oxide, other metal oxides, and gas-phase nitrogen oxides are being added to the atmosphere than ever before," said Marais, who leads a team of scientists that's developing an inventory of emissions from satellite reentries and rocket launches. In addition to the potential environmental impacts, the growing number of reentering satellites may increase the risk that some residual debris crashes on Earth, threatening property and human life. McDowell said that, although the risk to humans is currently very low, it will rise with the growing numbers of reentries. "Most satellites burn up entirely," McDowell said. "Starlinks are specifically designed to completely melt unless they reenter in a non-standard way. But, for example, the Russian Kosmos 1340, which weighed about 2 and a half tons, probably left behind a few chunks reaching the surface of Earth." Related: Burned-up space junk pollutes Earth's upper atmosphere, NASA planes find Related stories: — 6 types of objects that could cause space debris apocalypse — SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket debris creates dramatic fireball over Europe, crashes in Poland (video) — Scientists call on UN to help solve Earth's space junk problem As most of Earth's surface is either covered with ocean or uninhabited land, the chances of a piece of junk landing on somebody's head are slim. Still, pieces of debris have previously been found close to human settlements. In February of this year, for instance, charred fragments from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket scattered across parts of Poland and Ukraine. And in March 2024, a 4-inch (10 centimeters) shrapnel of melted metal pierced through the roof of a Florida home. The space projectile was later identified as a remnant of a battery pallet thrown out of the International Space Station three years earlier. "We're rolling the dice every time we have a reentry," McDowell said. "Eventually we're going to get unlucky, and someone is going to get hurt by falling space debris." The ESA report stated that, despite efforts to promptly remove old satellites from orbit, there are still too many objects being left behind, creating collision risk. Even if 90% of spacecraft are successfully removed, the number of space debris objects will continue to grow, ESA said in the report. In some parts of LEO, the number of functional satellites now approaches the quantity of space debris objects, the report stated. In addition to the objects larger than 4 inches, which can be tracked from Earth using radars and telescopes, there are about 1.1 million fragments between 0.4 and 4 inches in size and a further 130 million tiny bits smaller than 0.4 inches, according to ESA.
Yahoo
12-04-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
China's Starlink-rival satellite megaconstellations could litter orbit for 100+ years
China's satellite megaconstellation plans could clog low Earth orbit with large spent rocket stages, analysts warn. Those rocket stages could stay in orbit, increasing the risk of collisions, for over a hundred years. The government's Guowang and the commercial Qianfan (Thousand Sails) internet constellations will each consist of 10,000 satellites. The first launches for these constellations started last year. Over a thousand launches will be required to finish lifting the constellations to space. Scientists have already warned that SpaceX's Starlink constellation can obstruct important scientific observations. It could also lead to a devastating scenario known as Kessler Syndrome. Now, China's new constellations will add to this problem. Unlike Starlink, the rockets lifting the satellites may also leave a large, long-lasting debris footprint in space. China's space administration has faced heavy criticism in the past for its space practices. In 2022, several launches for its Tiangong space station ended with a dangerous, uncontrolled rocket reentry. One of these forced Spain to close its northern airspace for a short period. Controlled reentry burns require more fuel and financial resources to operate, but they ensure no one is harmed and no property is damaged on the ground. Now, amid rising concerns regarding orbital sustainability, China is leaving the upper stages of rockets in low Earth orbit (LEO). To be precise, it is leaving spent rocket boosters in persistent orbits, meaning they could remain there for over a century. This is according to space and orbital debris awareness consultant Jim Shell, owner of Novarum Tech LLC. In a thread on social media platform X, Shell explained that "there will be some 1,000+ PRC [People's Republic of China] launches over the next several years deploying these constellations." 'I have not yet completed the calculations but the orbital debris mass in LEO will be dominated by PRC upper stages in short order unless something changes (sigh),' he continued. 'For both constellations, the rocket upper stages are being left in high altitude orbits — generally with orbital lifetimes greater than 100 years.' To be precise, China's Long March 6A and 8 rockets are leaving their upper stages in orbits between 447 and 484 miles (720 and 780 kilometers). This is according to data from the US Space Force. As reported by SpaceNews, this is much higher than the roughly 372 mile (600 km) threshold aligned with global best practices. At such high altitudes, the lower atmospheric density results in less atmospheric drag, meaning space debris can stay in orbit for many decades. The reason for this is that the Guowang and Qianfan satellites orbit at almost double the altitude of Starlink, meaning they fly roughly 621 miles (1,000 km) above Earth. It is worth noting that the first Guowang launch in December 2024 did use a Yuanzheng-2 upper stage, which is capable of deorbiting itself. Older models were responsible for the uncontrolled reentries. China is also developing a range of reusable medium-lift rockets. These will likely compete for Guowang and Qianfan launch contracts. However, how these handle reentries is not yet known. As SpaceNews points out, China is still looking to ramp up production of its Long March 5B and Long March 8 rockets. Though China has the Yuanzheng-2 at its disposal, it is unclear whether these will be used for the majority of Guowang and Qianfan launches. The nation has a track record of ignoring established best practices in space in recent years. Following one of China's uncontrolled rocket reentries in 2022, former NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said: "the People's Republic of China did not share specific trajectory information as their Long March 5B rocket fell back to Earth. All spacefaring nations should follow established best practices and do their part to share this type of information in advance to allow reliable predictions of potential debris impact risk, especially for heavy-lift vehicles, like the Long March 5B, which carry a significant risk of loss of life and property." Chinese government officials have been known to wave away the criticism, putting it down to anti-Chinese propaganda. In an interview with IE in 2022, Harvard astronomer and astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell said China's 'reentries are objectively worse than what other countries are doing. I praise China's space program when it does good things, as it often does. And I criticize them when they are bad. This is bad.' Of course, China isn't the only nation lifting megaconstellations to orbit. Elon Musk and SpaceX have also faced criticism for their practices. The company currently has more than 6,700 Starlink satellites in orbit. It plans to eventually lift 30,000. While SpaceX's Falcon 9 rockets do perform a controlled reentry burn, the satellites themselves cause problems for the global scientific community. Starlink satellites have reflective surfaces that obstruct observations by ground-based telescopes. Though SpaceX does control its rocket reentries, it does still leave large parts in orbit. These have, on occasion, crashed down onto rural areas. Last year, University of Regina astronomer and space debris awareness advocate Samantha Lawler told IE, she went to see "terrifyingly large" chunks of a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule that had fallen not far from her home. "I hate to say this, but I really do think it will take a death before government regulators pay attention to the problem of space debris," she continued. Lawler believes Starlink satellites have us on the verge of Kessler Syndrome, a scenario whereby one collision dramatically increases the probability of more collisions in a destructive, cascading effect. In an interview with IE in 2022, Meredith Rawls, an astronomer at the University of Washington, said the Starlink problem is 'unsustainable'. What's more, 'If SpaceX were the only company poised to launch (tens of!) thousands of satellites, we'd be staring down a very different situation,' she continued. 'As it is, we have only seen the tip of the iceberg.'
