Latest news with #JosephCapurso
Zawya
4 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
Jittery markets await Fed as Mideast conflict rages on
SINGAPORE: Concerns over escalating hostilities in the Middle East stayed front and centre in markets on Wednesday, sending oil prices higher and leaving investors hesitant to scoop up risk assets. Investors have grown increasingly nervous over the possibility of more direct U.S. military involvement as the Israel-Iran air war entered a sixth day, with President Donald Trump calling for Iran's unconditional surrender and warning U.S. patience was wearing thin. "Clearly the Middle East issues have not been solved, and comments by President Trump just mean that things could get more dangerous in that part of the world," said Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). "The markets are trying to figure out that risk of a big U.S. military intervention. It's hard to say exactly what the market is thinking, but judging by the oil price and currencies, they're certainly pricing in at least some risk that something goes very bad there." Oil prices extended their climb on Wednesday, with Brent crude futures up 0.3% to $76.67 per barrel while U.S. crude rose 0.43% to $75.16 a barrel. Both had jumped more than 4% in the previous session. While the broad risk-off moves across markets from earlier in the week abated slightly, the overall mood remained downbeat. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3% as did EUROSTOXX 50 futures, which declined 0.34%. DAX futures similarly slid 0.54%, while FTSE futures edged 0.06% higher. S&P 500 futures added 0.12% while Nasdaq futures tacked on 0.17%, after the cash session on Wall Street ended in the red on Tuesday. In currencies, the dollar held to most of its gains against its peers. The euro struggled to recover from its 0.7% fall on Tuesday and last bought $1.1501. Sterling edged 0.12% higher to $1.3443, having slid 1.1% in the previous session. The dollar fell 0.2% to 144.98 yen, after rising to a one-week top against the Japanese currency earlier in the session. The spike in oil prices is a negative for the yen and euro at the margin as both Japan and the EU are major importers of energy, while the United States is an exporter. "The war has demonstrated that the U.S. dollar still retains a bit of haven status in certain situations, such as when the war is seen to raise the risk of disrupting global oil supply, and when the war diverts traders' attention away from those risks that are U.S.-centric," said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. FED OUTCOME The conflict in the Middle East, combined with prolonged uncertainty over Trump's tariffs and signs of fragility in the U.S. economy, make for a challenging backdrop ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision later on Wednesday. U.S. retail sales fell by a larger-than-expected 0.9% in May, data showed on Tuesday, marking the biggest drop in four months. Expectations are for the Fed to stand pat on rates, though focus will also be on the central bank's updated projections for the economy and the benchmark interest rate. "We do not anticipate much novelty from the Fed," said Erik Weisman, chief economist at MFS Investment Management. "The only area of interest may come from the new set of forecasts under the Summary of Economic Projections, which may point to slightly slower growth, combined with slightly higher inflation." U.S. Treasury yields were steady in Asia after falling on Tuesday, as investors poured into the safe-haven bonds in the wake of latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict. Bond yields move inversely to prices. The benchmark 10-year yield was last at 4.4067%, having fallen roughly 6 basis points in the previous session. The two-year yield stood at 3.9582%. Elsewhere, spot gold rose 0.13% to $3,392.61 an ounce. (Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Jamie Freed)
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Nervy markets await Fed as Mideast conflict rages on
By Rae Wee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Concerns over escalating hostilities in the Middle East stayed front and centre in markets on Wednesday, sending oil prices higher and investors rushing for the safety of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar while dumping stocks. Investors have grown increasingly nervous over the possibility of a more direct U.S. military involvement as the Israel-Iran air war entered a sixth day, with President Donald Trump calling for Iran's unconditional surrender and warning U.S. patience was wearing thin. "Clearly the Middle East issues have not been solved, and comments by President Trump just mean that things could get more dangerous in that part of the world," said Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). "The markets are trying to figure out that risk of a big U.S. military intervention. It's hard to say exactly what the market is thinking, but judging by the oil price and currencies, they're certainly pricing in at least some risk that something goes very bad there." Oil prices extended their climb on Wednesday, with Brent crude futures up 0.33% to $76.70 per barrel while U.S. crude rose 0.45% to $75.18 a barrel. Both had jumped more than 4% in the previous session. The broad risk-off moves across markets also continued to gather pace. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.26% as did EUROSTOXX 50 futures, which declined 0.4%. U.S. stock futures were little changed after the cash session on Wall Street ended in the red overnight. In currencies, the dollar firmed at a one-week high of 145.445 yen and held to most of its gains against other peers. The euro struggled to recover from its 0.7% fall on Tuesday, and last bought $1.1487. Sterling edged slightly higher to $1.3435, having slid 1.1% in the previous session. The spike in oil prices is a negative for the yen and euro at the margin as both Japan and the EU are major importers of energy, while the United States is an exporter. "The war has demonstrated that the U.S. dollar still retains a bit of haven status in certain situations, such as when the war is seen to raise the risk of disrupting global oil supply, and when the war diverts traders' attention away from those risks that are U.S.-centric," said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. FED OUTCOME The conflict in the Middle East, combined with prolonged uncertainty over Trump's tariffs and signs of fragility in the U.S. economy, make for a challenging backdrop ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision later on Wednesday. U.S. retail sales fell by a more-than-expected 0.9% in May, data showed on Tuesday, marking the biggest drop in four months. Expectations are for the Fed to stand pat on rates, though focus will also be on the central bank's updated projections for the economy and the benchmark interest rate. "We do not anticipate much novelty from the Fed," said Erik Weisman, chief economist at MFS Investment Management. "The only area of interest may come from the new set of forecasts under the Summary of Economic Projections, which may point to slightly slower growth, combined with slightly higher inflation." U.S. Treasury yields were steady in Asia after falling on Tuesday, as investors scooped up the safe-haven bonds in the wake of latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict. Bond yields move inversely to prices. The benchmark 10-year yield was last at 4.4027%, having fallen roughly 6 basis points in the previous session. The two-year yield stood at 3.9581%. [US/] Elsewhere, spot gold eased 0.12% to $3,384.73 an ounce. [GOL/] Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Recorder
6 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Australia, New Zealand dollars vulnerable as Israel-Iran conflict escalates
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars remained vulnerable to declines on Monday as the conflict between Israel and Iran showed no sign of cooling and oil prices climbed anew, although the sell-off in global stocks did steady a little. The Aussie dropped 0.3% to $0.6470, having fallen 0.7% on Friday to as low as $0.6457. It has support at the 200-day moving average of $0.6429, while resistance is stiff at $0.6550. The kiwi dollar was flat at $0.6008, after diving 0.9% on Friday to as low as $0.5996. Australia, New Zealand dollars tumble as Israel's strike on Iran hammers global risk It has support at 60 cents. On Monday, Wall Street futures climbed slightly while currency markets were mostly calm as investors assessed the latest developments in the Middle East. Iranian missiles struck Israel's Tel Aviv and the port city of Haifa on Monday, destroying homes and fuelling concerns that it could lead to a broader regional conflict. 'The main influence on AUD/USD (this week) is likely to be the conflict in the Middle East and the FOMC meeting,' said Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, referring to the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting starting on Tuesday. 'AUD/USD could fall nearer support at 0.6307 if the conflict escalates significantly.' Strategists from Deutsche Bank noted that the performance of the Australian dollar has a negative correlation with oil prices, even though Australia has become an energy exporter over recent years. Australia will publish monthly jobs figures on Thursday where expectations are for a gain of 25,000 jobs in May and a steady jobless rate of 4.1%. The labour market has been surprisingly resilient and another strong print could challenge market pricing for a rate cut next month, which is now priced at 75%. New Zealand will release its first-quarter gross domestic product figures on Thursday where forecasts are for a solid quarterly growth rate of 0.7% as the economy emerged from a policy-induced downturn. 'Our 0.7% growth forecast is an upgrade from our previous estimate of 0.4%… The signs of strength in the sectoral data were something of a surprise for us,' said Michael Gordon, senior economist at Westpac. Swaps imply there might be just one rate cut left in the current easing cycle from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which is more than fully priced in by November.
New Straits Times
6 days ago
- Business
- New Straits Times
Australia, New Zealand dollars vulnerable as Israel-Iran conflict escalates
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars remained vulnerable to declines on Monday as the conflict between Israel and Iran showed no sign of cooling and oil prices climbed anew, although the sell-off in global stocks did steady slightly. The Aussie dropped 0.3 per cent to US$0.6470, having fallen 0.7 per cent on Friday to as low as US$0.6457. It has support at the 200-day moving average of US$0.6429, while resistance is stiff at US$0.6550. The New Zealand dollar was flat at US$0.6008, after diving 0.9 per cent on Friday to as low as US$0.5996. It has support at 60 US cents. On Monday, Wall Street futures climbed slightly while currency markets were mostly calm as investors assessed the latest developments in the Middle East. Iranian missiles struck Israel's Tel Aviv and the port city of Haifa on Monday, destroying homes and fuelling concerns that the situation could escalate into a broader regional conflict. "The main influence on AUD/USD this week is likely to be the conflict in the Middle East and the FOMC meeting," said Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, referring to the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting starting on Tuesday. "AUD/USD could fall nearer support at 0.6307 if the conflict escalates significantly." Strategists from Deutsche Bank noted that the performance of the Australian dollar has a negative correlation with oil prices, even though Australia has become an energy exporter in recent years. Australia will publish monthly jobs figures on Thursday, where expectations are for a gain of 25,000 jobs in May and a steady jobless rate of 4.1 per cent. The labour market has been surprisingly resilient, and another strong print could challenge market pricing for a rate cut next month, which is now priced at 75 per cent. New Zealand will release its first-quarter gross domestic product figures on Thursday, where forecasts are for a solid quarterly growth rate of 0.7 per cent as the economy emerges from a policy-induced downturn. "Our 0.7 per cent growth forecast is an upgrade from our previous estimate of 0.4 per cent... The signs of strength in the sectoral data were something of a surprise for us," said Michael Gordon, senior economist at Westpac. Swaps imply there might be just one rate cut left in the current easing cycle from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which is more than fully priced in by November.
Yahoo
04-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Singapore Dollar Weakens Slightly; Focus on U.S. Labor Data
FOREIGN EXCHANGE 0352 GMT — The Singapore dollar weakens slightly against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session. The greenback has risen modestly following stronger-than-expected U.S. job openings data released Tuesday, CBA's Joseph Capurso says in a note.
