Latest news with #JSEAllShareIndex
IOL News
3 days ago
- Business
- IOL News
SA markets under pressure as geopolitical tensions escalate and US Fed signals caution
Johannesburg Stock Exchange JSE The rand fell 0.6% to R18.12 against the US dollar during early morning trade but still remained above the R18-mark by late afternoon while the JSE All Share Index eased by 0.2% to 94 785 points. Image: Gianluigi Guercia / AFP South African markets traded on the backfoot on Thursday on the back of geopolitical risks arising from the war in the Middle East and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) revised down its growth forecasts for the US. The rand fell 0.6% to R18.12 against the US dollar during early morning trade but still remained above the R18-mark by late afternoon while the JSE All Share Index eased by 0.2% to 94 785 points. The markets have remained on edge across the world as the war between Israel and Iran has intensified, pushing global oil prices to their highest in four months. An Iranian missile barrage left at least 240 people wounded as they struck several sites across Israel, damaging a hospital in the country's south while targeting a military site. Israel also attacked Iran's Arak heavy water nuclear reactor as the two countries traded fire for a seventh consecutive day. The war in the Middle East saw the Brent crude oil price rising 1.7% above $78 per barrel on Thursday as the main concern for the oil market remains the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for a fifth of global crude. Oil prices are now trading nearly 9% higher since Israel's initial strikes on Iran, with energy markets increasingly pricing in the chance of deeper supply disruptions. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Adding to tensions, senior US officials are reportedly preparing for a possible strike on Iran in the coming days, signaling Washington's readiness to enter the conflict. However, mixed signals remain, as the White House has given little indication of whether the US would support strikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities. Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group - an independent financial advisory and asset management firm - said global financial markets were likely to suffer a rapid and sharp selloff if the US launches direct military strikes against Iran. Green said a direct US military intervention could push crude significantly higher, especially if key infrastructure or shipping lanes are affected. 'The world economy is not in a strong position to absorb another energy shock,' Green said. 'If oil spikes from here, inflation expectations will shift, interest rate cut expectations will fade, and that would create a double blow for equities already priced for perfection.' Separately, the US Fed on Wednesday kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting but signaled two possible cuts by year-end. However, the Fed trimmed one cut for both 2026 and 2027, with the bank raising its inflation outlook and lowering its growth forecast. It comes as policymakers take a cautious stance to fully evaluate the economic impact of US President Donald Trump's policies, particularly those related to tariffs, immigration, and taxation. The Fed noted that the increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity, adding that the effects on inflation could be short-lived—reflecting a one-time shift in the price level— and could instead be more persistent. It said the effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level. Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined.
IOL News
5 days ago
- Business
- IOL News
South Africa's markets on edge amid Middle East tensions and Fed uncertainty
The JSE All Share Index fell 0.7% to 94 695 by 4pm while the rand was weak and traded above the R18.80-mark against the US dollar. Image: Supplied South Africa's markets faced a turbulent day on Tuesday as they traded on the backfoot, grappling with the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the US Federal Open Markets Committee's (FOMC) upcoming decision on interest rates. The JSE All Share Index fell 0.7% to 94 695 by 4pm while the rand was weak and traded above the R18.80-mark against the US dollar after reaching R17.70/$1 as the severe escalation in the conflict in the Middle East has increased market risk aversion. Stocks such as Karooooo, Assura and Harmony Gold saw the most declines, falling 4.55%, 4% and 3.3%, respectively. However, the marked US dollar weakness of the second quarter continued to persist amid heightened volatility. The escalation of conflict in the region reached new peaks following a stark warning from US President Donald Trump, who urged Iranians to evacuate Tehran. This statement has intensified fears regarding a possible escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict, contributing to an anxious trading atmosphere. According to reports, Iran has threatened to execute what it claims will be the largest ballistic missile assault on Israel within the next few days, in response to Israel's military targeting of its governmental facilities. A key concern is potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about 18–19 million barrels per day, or roughly 20% of global oil consumption, passes. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad Loading Oil prices remain supported by the ongoing turmoil, while gold continues to attract safe-haven flows. The oil price jumped to $74 (R1 318) per barrel on the intensification of the war in the Middle East after dipping to $60 per barrel last month. On average for the month to date the oil price is higher but counterbalanced by rand strength against the US dollar. Gold climbed above $3 390 per ounce on Tuesday, extending gains as escalating tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The rand strength against the US dollar is currently overshadowing the impact of the jump in the oil price, with a very small cut in the oil price signalled, although further escalation in the international oil price would wipe this out. Investec chief economist, Annabel Bishop, said the US dollar's weakness has been driven by the volatility in US policy, particularly on trade, as the US has hiked tariffs steeply on countries worldwide then paused, or rolled them back, creating uncertainty over the US economy and global growth. 'While the rand has gained against US dollar weakness, it is still weaker against the euro and pound this quarter as risk aversion elevated,' Bishop said. 'With concerns that the war in the Middle-East will last for weeks not days as some had hoped, financial market sentiment has become risk averse, but the US dollar remains suppressed, only seeing a very slight lessening in weakness. 'The rand has consequently only seen very modest weakness against the US dollar compared to last week, with most of the movement coming from the rand against the crosses.'
IOL News
14-05-2025
- Business
- IOL News
JSE shatters records as global markets celebrate US-China trade deal
the JSE All Share Index soared by 0.5% to 93 072 points on Wednesday just after beginning early morning trade before snapping those gains to end at 92 441 points by 5pm. Image: Nicola Mawson / Independent Newspapers Stocks on the JSE defied disheartening local employment figures and rallied to a fresh record high on Wednesday, surging past the 93 000-points mark as the easing tensions between the US and China also buoyed global markets. The world's two largest economies have agreed to cut the hefty import tariffs on each other's goods for 90 days whilst negotiations for a permanent deal are underway. The US will lower those tariffs from 145% to 30%, while China's retaliatory tariffs on US goods will drop to 10% from 125%. US President Donald Trump said weekend talks had resulted in a "total reset" in trade terms between the US and China. As the markets cheered the news, the JSE All Share Index soared by 0.5% to 93 072 points on Wednesday just after beginning early morning trade before snapping those gains to end at 92 487 points by 5pm. Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop said the JSE tended to run on the momentum behind international stock exchanges due to the international companies' listings on it. 'When investor sentiment improves globally, such as the recent roll-back in many tariffs previously announced in April, then the outlook for global growth improves and so for equities, benefiting stock exchanges,' Bishop said. 'Over the past weekend the US and China agreed a trade deal to cut back most of the recent tariff hikes and the sharp de-escalation in the trade war has reduced risk aversion in financial markets.' Leading the rally on the JSE was Sappi, which rose 3.3% to R33.34 per share and followed by Datatec at 3% higher to R63.23 per share and Truworths rose 2.9% to R76.22 per share. Mike Gresty, fund manager at Anchor Capital, highlighted the JSE's biggest weighted stocks as one of the reasons for the rally. 'I note that Naspers/Prosus are up about 2.5% on the back of Tencent's move today and its results announced after the close Hong Kong time. I suspect that has a lot to do with the overall market being up today,' Gresty said. The market's cheer comes on the back of South Africa's unemployment rate increasing to 32.9% in the first three months of 2025 from 31.9% in the last three months of 2024 as the number of the employed fell more than the decline of the labour force. The rising unemployment rate brings into question the government's intervention to deal with structural constraints, deterioration in economic conditions and boost investor confidence. However, the JSE has risen 4.4% from a month ago and by 10.1% in the year-to-date as it has continued to break records until the onset of the trade war from the imposition of the US tariffs. Momentum Investments chief economist, Sanisha Packirisamy, also pointed to the global markets breathing a sigh of relief after the US and China temporarily suspended their tariffs. 'The SA equity market is very geared to what happens globally, with a majority of its earnings coming from offshore, rather than being tied to domestic developments,' Packirisamy said. 'Trump's backtracking on tariffs and an alleviation in volatility measures have seen the markets rebound strongly, including in South Africa.' Visit:
The Citizen
06-05-2025
- Business
- The Citizen
South Africa's commercial property sector holds steady amid political headwinds
Earlier this month, the rand approached a historic low of R19.93 against the U.S. dollar on April 9, 2025, before recovering to R18.97 by April 14. Simultaneously, the JSE All Share Index experienced significant volatility, dropping from 89,950.79 on March 31 to 82,485.81 on April 9, before rebounding to 88,162.30 by April 14. The catalyst? A 31% reciprocal trade tariff from the United States (effective April 9), that's sent shockwaves across emerging markets. It's a sharp departure from South Africa's average 7.6% tariff and effectively sidelines the benefits previously granted to Sub-Saharan African economies under AGOA. For Lesotho, where the textile and manufacturing sector makes up nearly 15% of GDP, a new 50% tariff could be devastating. That said, John Jack, CEO of Galetti Corporate Real Estate believes that 'it's not all doom and gloom'. 'South Africa kicked off 2025 on a high note, driven by lower interest rates, a stronger rand, reduced loadshedding and a boost in investor confidence,' he says. 'By mid-January, we saw solid traction, especially in the resources sector, which bolstered activity on the FTSE/JSE All Share Index. Fast-forward to now and we're seeing capital flow back into safe havens as risk-off behaviour takes hold,' As the year progressed, however, that momentum was tested. Flight to Stability: Real Estate in Focus Despite the volatility, commercial property is holding its ground—and may in fact be turning heads for the right reasons. 'The local CRE market came back strong in late 2024,' Jack notes. 'Vacancies dropped, net operating income improved, and there was a clear uptick in investor appetite. This was helped along by rate cuts, easing inflation, more consistent energy supply, and the formation of the GNU.' While global trade tensions will certainly disrupt some economic channels, Jack believes they also open the door for commercial real estate to shine: 'In periods like this, the smart money tends to chase yield and stability- and that's exactly what the right property assets offer. They're long-term, income-generating and tend to outperform when the broader market feels uncertain.' He adds, 'Not everyone is pulling their capital offshore. Many investors are simply re-evaluating—and that creates opportunity.' South Africa's real estate market continues to offer compelling yields—particularly in sectors with tight fundamentals. With bricks-and-mortar assets offering both predictability and protection, CRE is increasingly being seen as a strategic hedge. Staying Proactive in a Shifting Market In a market like this, discipline matters. Jack outlines several strategies for investors and developers looking to stay ahead of the curve: Monitor macro indicators to time moves with precision. to time moves with precision. Diversify portfolios —think retail, mixed-use, healthcare, and logistics. —think retail, mixed-use, healthcare, and logistics. Use fixed-rate debt to lock in costs while rates remain favourable. to lock in costs while rates remain favourable. Target demand-driven nodes with long-term growth fundamentals. with long-term growth fundamentals. Don't ignore regional markets —there's smart value outside of the metros. —there's smart value outside of the metros. Get flexible with leasing to keep income stable as tenant priorities evolve. 'South Africa's CRE market has been through its fair share of storms. It's proven itself resilient, especially in the face of structural constraints. Yes, short-term volatility might slow down certain deals or make tenants a bit more cautious, but the fundamentals are still there—particularly in logistics, repurposed office space, and tourism-driven assets' he concludes. Issued by: Jess Gois
IOL News
24-04-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Navigating South Africa's commercial real estate amidst political and global challenges
Between March 2017 and March 2020, SA REITs lost more than 70% of their value, and while it had clawed back nearly 68% in value excluding dividends, it remained 50% below March 2017 levels. Image: Supplied The commercial real estate sector in South Africa is being tested by a mix of local political uncertainty and mounting global trade pressure, but the market is holding up with investors adopting a wait-and-see approach. Earlier this month, the rand approached a historic low of R19.93 against the US dollar before recovering to R18.97 by April 14. Simultaneously, the JSE All Share Index saw significant volatility, dropping from 89 950.79 on March 31 to 82 485.81 on April 9, before rebounding to 88 162.30 by April 14. Meanwhile, the FTSE/JSE listed Property Index was down by only 1.34% year-to-date on Tuesday, while it was up 21.93% over a 12-month period. Over three months it was up 0.55%. The catalyst for the currency and volatility on the JSE? A 31% reciprocal trade tariff from the US (effective April 9), that's sent shockwaves across emerging markets. It's a sharp departure from South Africa's average 7.6% tariff and effectively sidelines the benefits previously granted to Sub-Saharan African economies under AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act). "South Africa's commercial real estate market has been through its fair share of storms. It's proven resilient, especially in the face of structural constraints. Yes, short-term volatility might slow certain deals or make tenants a bit more cautious, but the fundamentals are there—particularly in logistics, repurposed office space, and tourism-driven assets,' said Galetti Corporate Real Estate CEO John Jack in a statement. The local commercial real estate market came back strongly in late 2024, vacancies fell, net operating incomes improved, and there was an uptick in investor appetite. This was helped by rate cuts, easing inflation, more consistent energy supply, and the formation of the GNU. 'Not everyone is pulling their capital offshore; many investors are now simply re-evaluating—and that creates opportunity,' he said. 'South Africa kicked off 2025 on a high note, driven by lower interest rates, a stronger rand, reduced loadshedding, and a boost in investor confidence. By mid-January, we saw solid traction, especially in the resources sector, which bolstered activity on the JSE. Fast-forward to now and we're seeing capital flow back into safe havens as risk-off behaviour takes hold,' he said. "In periods like this, the smart money tends to chase yield and stability—and that's exactly what the right property assets offer. They're long-term, income-generating and tend to outperform when the broader market feels uncertain,' he said. The SA Reit Association's online publication said improving fundamentals in South Africa continue to point towards a return to net property income and dividend growth for the sector over the next 2 to 3 years, and the sector is better positioned to weather uncertainty that lies ahead. Jack said South Africa's real estate market continues to offer compelling yields—particularly in sectors with tight fundamentals. Bricks-and-mortar assets offered predictability and protection, and the sector was increasingly being seen as a strategic hedge. The association said SA REITs (real estate investment trusts) had rebounded 68% since the Covid-19 crash, and properties were still trading at significant discounts to net asset value, with many offering long-term upside despite short-term global market volatility.
