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Business Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Global shipping not disrupted by Israel-Iran conflict for now, but impact likely nuanced
[SINGAPORE] The Israel-Iran conflict has not disrupted global shipping – for now – but the likely impact on the industry might be more nuanced. Pacific International Lines (PIL), which focuses on China, Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, Oceania and the Pacific Islands, said that its sailings are continuing notwithstanding the escalated tensions in the Middle East. Abhishek Chawla, PIL's chief marine officer, told The Business Times: 'At present, we continue our sailings with utmost consideration to the evolving situation while ensuring the usual safety and security of our vessels and crews. We exercise constant risk management assessment and strategic anticipation.' Maersk has also not had disruptions caused by the Israel-Iran war and is continuing its scheduled operations in the area. 'Our aim is to keep our customers informed and help them with alternative solutions if needed,' the Danish shipping heavyweight said. Israel launched an attack on Iran on Friday (Jun 13), triggering barrages of ballistic missiles from Iran in retaliation. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), an international naval task force monitoring the Iran-linked Yemeni Houthi rebels' attacks on merchant vessels, has assessed that the maritime threat level remains significant and elevated in its latest update on Monday. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up It flagged the possibility of the military operations spilling beyond the bilateral hostilities into the wider region. The Strait of Hormuz – located between Oman and Iran, and connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea – remains open and commercial traffic continues to flow, according to JMIC. However, it noted a slight drop in the number of cargo-carrying vessels of at least 1,000 gross-tonnage transiting the Strait of Hormuz since Israel's attacks on Iran. The strait is the world's most important oil choke point, through which nearly 20 million barrels – or about one-fifth of global consumption – flow each day. A blockade of the highly strategic Strait of Hormuz could send prices of the commodity soaring past US$100 a barrel. As much as 3.4 per cent of global container volumes could also be hit if the strait closes, estimated Tan Hua Joo, container industry analyst at data provider Linerlytica. 'The United Arab Emirates will be the worst hit in such an event as the 21.7 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs; a unit of measurement used to determine cargo capacity for container ships) that its ports handle account for the majority of the 33.2 million TEUs of total container volumes in the region.' The impact of the conflict on shipping charges could be more nuanced. Chawla of PIL commented that freight costs could rise as a result of the increase in the bunker prices sparked by the tensions. Global crude oil prices surged 7 per cent on the day that strikes between Iran and Israel took place. Lars Jensen, the chief executive officer of Vespucci Maritime, told BT that insurance companies might be re-assessing risk and charging war-risk premiums. 'Also, shippers to and from the region might be re-assessing the risk and potentially altering their shipments if this is possible.' HSBC Global Research commented that the escalating Middle East tensions mean that a return to the Red Sea any time soon is less likely, but this may not ease the concerns on capacity ramp-up and the softer spot container rates in the transpacific lane.
CNA
5 days ago
- Business
- CNA
Shipping disruption surges around Hormuz amid Israeli attacks on Iran: Naval agencies
LONDON: Electronic interference with commercial ship navigation systems has surged in recent days around the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Gulf, which is having an impact on vessels sailing through the region, naval forces said on Monday (Jun 16). Iranian missiles struck major Israeli cities on Monday, while Israel's prime minister said his country was on its way to eliminating "threats" from nuclear and missile facilities in Iran and civilian casualties mounted on both sides after four days of conflict. Tehran has in the past threatened to close the critical Strait of Hormuz to traffic in retaliation for Western pressure. Any closure of the strait could restrict trade and impact global oil prices. "JMIC continue to receive reports of electronic interference stemming from the vicinity of Port of Bandar Abbas (in Iran), in the SoH and several other areas in the Arabian Gulf," the multinational, US-led Combined Maritime Force's JMIC information centre said in an advisory. "These interferences, which continue to intensify throughout the region, are having significant impact within the Gulf itself. This disruption is affecting vessels' ability to accurately transmit positional data via automated identification systems (AIS), posing operational and navigational challenges for maritime traffic." Every oceangoing ship has a number of navigation systems onboard, which includes the AIS public ship tracking system that is used extensively by merchant shipping across the world. The advisory followed an earlier note on Monday by UKMTO maritime agency, which also pointed to an increase in navigational interference in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, although no parties were identified as the source of the interference. Greek authorities urged their merchant fleet last week to log all voyages through the strait. Greek operators are among the biggest tanker providers in the world. "The regional threat level remains significant as strikes continue from both Iran and Israel. The maritime threat level remains elevated," the JMIC said.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Could Iran Carry Out Its Threat To Shut Down The Strait Of Hormuz?
The threat of Iran attempting to blockade the highly strategic Strait of Hormuz has re-emerged amid the conflict that has now erupted between it and Israel. Over the years, the Iranians have amassed an arsenal of cruise and ballistic missiles, and kamikaze drones, as well as a slew of maritime capabilities like naval mines, well-suited to the task of shutting down the narrow waterway that links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. At the same time, there are questions about the extent to which Israeli strikes may have hampered Iran's ability to follow through on such a threat, or even whether the regime in Tehran would want to take such a drastic step that would have global ramifications. Readers can first get up to speed on the state of the current Israel-Iran conflict, which increasingly includes the targeting of energy infrastructure, in our reporting here. Esmail Kosari (also sometimes written Esmaeil Kousari or Esmaeil Kowsari), currently a member of Iran's parliament and head of the parliamentary committee on defense and national security, has said that closing the Strait of Hormuz is now under serious consideration, according to multiple reports today. The original source of the remarks from Kosari, who also holds the rank of brigadier general in Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), appears to be a story from the state-run Islamic Republic of Iran News Network (IRINN). 'The Strait of Hormuz remains open and commercial traffic continues to flow uninterrupted,' according to an advisory notice yesterday from the Joint Maritime Information Center of the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) office. 'Currently, the JMIC has no indications of an increased threat to the Maritime.' This followed earlier advisories from the UKMTO JMIC regarding tensions in the region after Israel began launching strikes on Iran Thursday. UKMTO MSCIO JMIC – ADVISORY 021-25https:// #marsec — UKMTO Ops Centre (@UK_MTO) June 11, 2025 'At the time of this writing, no impact to shipping has been reported' in the region, Ambrey, an international maritime security firm, said in a separate Threat Circular put out after Israel began its latest campaign against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz 'remains open and there are no indications of an increased threat to the Maritime Environment,' Nils Haupt, a spokesman for the Hapag-Lloyd shipping company, told TWZ directly. 'At the moment, we do not see an urge to divert any vessels. But of course: we continue to monitor the situation on an hourly basis.' Haupt also noted his company currently has no ships in either Iranian or Israeli waters. Iran has repeatedly threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which is just around 20 nautical miles across at its narrowest point, in times of heightened tensions in the past. How narrow the waterway is means that a significant portion of it falls within Iran's national waters, which also overlap with those of Oman to the south. Normal maritime traffic flows in and out through a pair of established two-mile-wide shipping lanes. Roughly a fifth of all global oil shipments, and an even higher percentage of seaborne shipments, pass through the Strait each year. It is also an important route for the movement of liquid natural gas. Some 3,000 ships use it to get to and from the Persian Gulf each month. Closing the Strait of Hormuz would have immediate and potentially dramatic impacts on the global price of oil, which, in turn, could cause significant worldwide economic disruptions. Oil prices had already jumped after Israel launched its new campaign against Iran, which has now expanded to include Iranian energy targets. Naval mines have historically been one of the most immediate options Iran has for trying to bring maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a halt. Those mines could be seeded relatively rapidly by a wide array of vessels, including the IRGC's extensive fleet of small fast attack boats. The Iranian Navy's separate fleets, including its midget submarines, could easily play a role in mine laying, too. Certain commercial vessels, especially those with onboard cranes, might also be able to assist. Finding and clearing naval mines is an arduous process that presents significant risks even in otherwise benign environments. If Iran is truly serious about shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, an array of other threats would be layered on top to hamper the minesweeping efforts and otherwise block maritime traffic. For one, IRGC and Iranian Navy vessels could also just directly attack or otherwise harass foreign warships and commercial vessels alike. Iran has also shown an ability and willingness to use teams riding in small boats to directly plant limpet mines on the hulls of civilian ships, as well as board and seize them, in the past. Many of Iran's naval vessels, including various types of smaller fast attack craft, are armed with anti-ship cruise missiles. It has surface warships, semi-submersibles, and the aforementioned midget submarines that can launch attacks using torpedoes, anti-tank guided missiles, unguided artillery rockets, and other weapons, as well. Furthermore, Iranian maritime forces actively train to employ swarming tactics to help overwhelm any enemy defenses. In recent years, Iran has also fielded a number of cargo ships converted into 'motherships' for launching cruise and ballistic missiles and drones, as well as what it claims to be a 'drone carrier.' TWZ has explored the potential capabilities of these ships in the past, but the actual roles they might play in a stand-up confrontation around the Strait of Hormuz seem limited. Especially in this constrained environment, they would present large and easy-to-find targets for opponents to attack. Iran's IRGC published a video today of launching a ballistic missile from their forward base Shahid Mahdavi (converted container ship). — Mehdi H. (@mhmiranusa) February 13, 2024 2. Second video shows the takeoff & landing of Ababil-3 drone on the IRGCN drone carrier named Shahid Bahman Bagheri. — Mehdi H. (@mhmiranusa) February 6, 2025 Iran has also been steadily developing uncrewed surface vessels and undersea vehicles capable of launching kamikaze attacks to its arsenal. Though the ongoing war in Ukraine has now fully demonstrated the very real threats these capabilities present to ships and coastal targets, and even aerial threats, Iran, together with its Houthi allies in Yemen, has now long been a pioneer in this space. Shore-launched anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as kamikaze drones, are another key component of the threats Iran could bring to bear in the Strait of Hormuz. This is only compounded by the narrowness of the waterway, which offers very limited room to maneuver, especially for large ships in the face of high-volume saturation attacks. The prospect of Iran turning the Strait into a super missile and drone engagement zone is a particularly worrisome scenario that TWZ has regularly called attention to in the past. Israel's strikes on Iran since Thursday do raise questions about the extent to which Iran could follow through on any threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. In addition to starting nuclear facilities, a particularly major focus of Israeli operations so far has been hobbling Iranian ballistic missile capabilities. A satellite image from Planet Labs taken on June 12 had also raised the possibility of Israel targeting IRGC naval assets at a base on the Persian Gulf, but this remains very much unconfirmed. This is not a location the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has so far included in its otherwise expansive claims of targets struck across Iran. Iran's 'drone carrier' Shahid Bagheri and Shahid Mahdavi mothership vessel have also been observed leaving their homeport in Bandar Abbas, where they would be very vulnerable to strikes. Planet imagery acquired 0725Z 13JUN2025 suggests the IRGCN naval base west of Bostanoo was likely targeted during Israel's airstrikes. — War Report (@WarReportage) June 13, 2025 Bandar Abbas After the initial attack overnight, there has been some movement at the naval baseAt first look both drone motherships ( IRGC Shahid Bagheri & IRIS Shahid Mahdavi) appeared to have left After taking a closer look, they just moved ~6 km to the west. Both… — MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) June 13, 2025 From nuclear sites to air defense systems, we've dismantled some of Iran's most dangerous military a breakdown of the key targets struck across Iran: — Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 14, 2025 At the same, as TWZ has already noted in our reporting on the current Iran-Israel conflict, Iran has a significant ability to disperse its ballistic and cruise missiles. This, in turn, makes them immensely more difficult to track and attack preemptively, and creates additional uncertainty around where threats may suddenly emerge. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the process of clearing naval mines, especially while under attack from other threats, is generally slow-going and dangerous. The U.S. Navy and others have been working to mitigate those risks, including through the increasing use of uncrewed surface and undersea platforms. Still, depending on how many mines Iran is able to lay, an operation to conclusively remove them could take a long time, potentially weeks or even months. It is worth noting here that the campaign by Yemen's Houthis against commercial shipping and foreign warships in and around the Red Sea since October 2023 has now proven out many of the exact capabilities and tactics that Iran could employ in the Strait of Hormuz. The Yemeni militants have also demonstrated how relatively limited threats to civilian vessels can have outsized impacts, even in the face of active foreign intervention. Despite U.S. and foreign forces patrolling the waters around the Red Sea and directly engaging Houthi targets ashore, commercial maritime traffic through that region had largely collapsed last year. Ships were forced to avoid the Suez Canal for a far longer route around the Horn of Africa, creating nearly $200 billion in new costs for the maritime shipping industry collectively. The situation has begun to improve somewhat as Houthi attacks have declined, particularly following a ceasefire deal between the United States and the Yemeni militants in May. However, there are fears that the trend will now reverse again given the current geopolitical climate. Iran has already separately threatened to target U.S. and other foreign forces in the Middle East if they help defend Israel from its missile and drone attacks. The Iranians could seek to launch similar attacks on third parties in response to any efforts to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. According to Reuters, Iran has warned the United States, United Kingdom and France that their bases and ships in the region will be targeted if they assist in the defense of Israel against ballistic missiles launched by Tehran. — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 14, 2025 All this being said, the Red Sea can still be bypassed, but there is no other outlet for commercial shipping from the Persian Gulf than the Strait of Hormuz. As such, Iran even attempting to blockade the waterway would present far further reaching regional and global implications that would draw responses on various levels from foreign powers around the world. In particular, Gulf Arab states, already historically at odds with Iran and aligned with the United States, would be pressured to act, or at least support some kind of intervention, given the impacts to their heavily oil and natural gas-dependent economies. Those countries could look to move oil and natural gas elsewhere across the Arabian Peninsula for export, but not being able to leverage established facilities on the Persian Gulf would still have consequences. Iran has an acute awareness of the risks involved given its experience during the Tanker War sideshow to the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, which prompted a major reaction from the U.S. military. The potential for a repeat of the Tanker War has since been an important factor in U.S. force posture and contingency response planning in the Middle East. More recently, the U.S. military has taken steps to try to build a broader international coalition presence to help ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains free and open. From what has been seen so far, Iran has been looking to deter the U.S. military, especially, from taking an active offensive role alongside Israel in the current conflict. It is hard to see how any attempt to block maritime traffic in the region would not have the exact opposite effect. Closing the Strait of Hormuz would run the additional risk of alienating Iran's foreign partners, especially China, which imports significant amounts of Iranian and other Middle East oil. 'China does not want the flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf to be disrupted in any way, and China does not want the price of oil to rise,' Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting, told CNBC for a story published yesterday. 'So they're going to bring the full weight of their economic power to bear on Iran.' The revenue from oil and natural gas shipments is vital to Iran itself, and could be even more so in the aftermath of the current conflict. Disruptions to seaborne commerce would have other impacts for the regime in Tehran. In recent months, reports had notably said that Iran had been stepping up imports of chemicals from China that can be used to produce fuel for its missiles. The Iranian armed forces also import other kinds of military hardware from China, as well as Russia. 'Their friends will suffer more than their enemies … So it's very hard to see that happening,' Anas Alhajji, a managing partner at Energy Outlook Advisors, also told CBNC. 'It's not in their interest to cause problems because they will suffer first.' Whether or not Iran might become less inured to the risks of touching off new regional and global crises with enemies and allies as Israel's campaign of strikes continues remains to be seen. The regime in Tehran could feel pressured to take drastic measures, in general, if it perceives its existence as being at risk. If the order were to be given in Tehran, mining and other measures could be implemented quickly, at least to a degree that could be highly disruptive, even if U.S. and other forces react with similar speed. Even if the Strait is not fully shut down, impacts would be felt. U.S. or other foreign forces would face challenges restoring confidence that the passage is safe, especially with the effort that would be required to hunt down mobile missile launchers ashore. Any operations in response to Iranian movements at sea or on land would be conducted in a hostile air and maritime environment, including the anti-ship missile super engagement zone described earlier, and which would extend beyond the immediate confines of the Strait. Supporting tasks like the suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses and intelligence-gathering would be critical. In turn, a major force package would have to be put together and immense resources expended. 'The response from Iran, its proxies and allies is unknown and any effect on the maritime environment is not predictable,' the UKMTO JMIC cautioned in its advisory notice yesterday. 'Given the proximity of regional flashpoints to major maritime routes and chokepoints, the potential for rapid escalation involving the maritime environment should not be discounted. The threat from the Houthis, who have publicly stated their intent to respond if the U.S. is perceived to be involved, increases the threat of a broader regional impact.' Altogether, there are significant questions about Iran's capacity to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and its overall willingness to do so, but it remains a worrisome potentiality that would send out ripples globally. Contact the author: howard@
Time of India
11-06-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
‘Espionage' case: Bail plea of Hisar influencer Jyoti Malhotra dismissed
Chandigarh: A Hisar court on Wednesday dismissed the bail application of social media influencer , who was arrested on allegations of espionage. Judicial Magistrate First Class (JMIC) Sunil Kumar dismissed the plea after hearing the arguments submitted by Jyoti's counsel and the police reply. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now While the police strongly objected to the bail plea, her counsel argued that despite her contact with Pakistani nationals, it had not been proven that she accessed classified data or intentionally compromised the country's security. Her lawyer even referred to the official statements issued by SP Hisar confirming that she had not shared any classified information with her handlers. The order to dismiss her bail plea was announced in open court. However, a copy of the detailed order was not available till the filing of the current report. In its detailed reply to Jyoti's plea for bail, the investigation agency submitted that the result of electronic devices recovered from Jyoti was examined by the Central Forensic Laboratory (CFL) Panchkula, and they are examining this report. The police also submitted that she was in touch with other social media influencers and, on being relesed on bail, she may hamper the investigation of the case, which is at a crucial stage at this juncture. On May 26, Hisar cops arrested Malhotra on suspicion of espionage. The 33-year-old Hisar resident was then remanded to five-day police custody and thereafter sent to judicial custody. As per the initial probe, she was in touch with Danish, an employee of the Pakistani High Commission, since Nov 2023. Recently, the Punjab police also arrested a YouTuber, Jasbir Singh, who had links with Malhotra. MSID:: 121779782 413 |
Time of India
11-06-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Hisar court dismisses bail plea of social media influencer Jyoti Malhotra in espionage
CHANDIGARH: A local court in Hisar on Wednesday dismissed the bail application of social media influencer Jyoti Malhotra, who was arrested by the police on allegations of espionage activities. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Judicial magistrate first class (JMIC) Hisar Sunil Kumar dismissed the plea after hearing the arguments submitted by Jyoti's counsel and the reply filed by the police. While the police had strongly objected to the bail plea, her counsel mainly argued that despite her contact with Pakistani nationals, she has not been proven to access classified data or intentionally compromise the country's security. Advocate Kumar Mukesh, while representing Malhotra, had even referred to the official statements issued by the SP Hisar confirming that she had not shared any classified information with her handlers. The order to dismiss her bail plea was announced in the open court. However, copy of the detailed order was not available till the filing of the current report. In its detailed reply to Jyoti's plea for bail, the investigation agency submitted that the result of electronic devices recovered from Jyoti has been examined from the central forensic laboratory (CFL) Panchkula and the report of CFL is being examined. The probe agency further informed that the matter pertains to sedition and if she is granted bail, there are chances that she may influence the investigation as well as the witnesses related to the matter. The police also submitted that she is in touch with other social media influencers and on release on bail, she may hamper the investigation of the case, which is at a crucial stage at this juncture. "Those who sponsored her in such an act have been issued notices to join the probe and all those are yet to be examined. There is an alert in the country over Operation 'Sindoor,' if she is released on bail, there are chances that she may be harmful for the country because of her close association with the enemy country," the police had submitted. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now On May 26, Hisar police arrested Malhotra on suspicion of espionage. The 33-years old Hisar resident was then remanded in police custody for five days and thereafter she was sent to judicial custody. As per the initial probe, she was in touch with Danish, an employee of the Pakistani High Commission, since November 2023. Recently, the Punjab police had also arrested a YouTuber Jasbir Singh, who was also having links with Malhotra.
