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Express Tribune
2 days ago
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Time for a national govt in Iran to push back deceit, aggression
Listen to article Not many are sure of it being an Armageddon, but the war underway between Iran and Israel has led to a psychological divide. World public opinion has split for all times to come, and the Israel-US duo has blundered by attacking a sovereign state merely on the accusation that it is not ready for a deal on its uranium enrichment that was anyway far away from the standards of going lethal. The ramifications that the Western interests shall face from pro-Iranian elements might be a telling tale to register in all adversity. This aggression and warmongering has also raised critical questions on Westphalian statehood as well as on the credibility of International Law in the 21st century, especially as diplomacy and alignment power politics takes a backseat. The Iranian bluff is called. It is strategically unacceptable to believe that its military gear and command, supposed to be one of the best in the Middle East, collapsed like a house of cards, and that too on the premise of Israeli penetration into its edifice. The early few hours of death and destruction were directly stage-managed by pro-Zionist agents entrenched inside the Islamic Republic, and it is no less than a mortification. The killing of Hamas chief, a state guest, inside Tehran in 2024; the blanket extermination of Hezbollah; and the mysterious assassination of President Ebrahim Raisi in a copter downing should have altered the clergy-dominated ruling elite. Perhaps there was a lack of introspection, and the convention as usual was to yell from the pulpit that the Jewish state is not worth a salt, and the Republic can crumble it down anytime. A question that Iranian citizens and sympathisers are worthy of asking is: where is the so-called Al-Quds Force, and the massive galvanisation of IRGC for 'walking over' the occupied territories, if need be? What was the need for mass conscription of people from Pakistan and Arab states to fight the 'other's war' in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Syria, in in the name of annihilating Israel, as they all ended as fodder and the regular army too had to face a Pearl Harbour moment and literally capitulate? Iran is a civilisation par-excellence, and its industrious people have braved everything to stand tall in their resilience. Their faux pas moment has been the repressive rule under which they have lived for the last four decades. The segregative rule — wherein the elected representatives were mere scapegoats and the real power rested with the unelected and controversial clergy, which is no more now a source of admiration for many — is at the root cause of all ills. All indigenous movements for reforms, human rights and opening up to the world at large were dubbed as 'foreign ploys' and cornered. This is where power mechanics tilted extremely in the favour of IRGC Inc and a few unanswerable bigots should now take the blame. Notwithstanding how Iran comes out of this existential crisis — as it fights on an enemy that is only 1.33% of its size, and whose entire geography is less than its Hamadan province — the point is Tehran is no longer immune. Iran's military might is checkmated, the people are in a quandary, and the ruling clergy-cum-IRGC elite is obsessed with sticking to power. With escalation leading to a major transnational catastrophe as Iran closes the Hormuz, and Tel Aviv dismantling the nuclear sites as it did with Iraq and Libya, a progressive nation will be on the verge of extinction in terms of its sovereignty, geopolitical vitality and its very national identity. This madness in governance solicits some intervention and that too from the people of Iran only. It's time for the Iranians to have a national government with all feathers of opinions in it. The clergy must take a backseat and let the sovereigns lead from the front. It would be more appropriate for the Supreme Leader to abdicate his authority to a council of wise men, and let the great nation win this moment for itself and the future of 90 million Iranians. Iran truly needs a change from within, and the regime's deceit is now proven beyond doubt. It could not walk the talk. Iranians have shown great tenacity in this episode of Israeli aggression, and it's time they won on the home front too that is in a crisscross of decades.
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First Post
3 days ago
- Politics
- First Post
Inside Netanyahu's campaign to destroy Iran's bunker nuclear sites: Here's what Israeli expert says
Despite being Israel's principal objective, the destruction of Iran's nuclear sites has barely been achieved so far. As these underground sites remain out of bounds to Israel, Israel is looking at US President Donald Trump to join the war with his 'bunker buster' bombs. Here is how the joint Israel-US war on Iran may play out — or what happens if he wouldn't join. read more More than four decades after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei committed the Islamic Republic of Iran to the destruction of the Jewish state, Israel has dealt catastrophic blows to the ayatollah's regime — the military leadership has been decapitated, air defences have been destroyed, critical infrastructure and military sites stand battered, and the Supreme Leader remains in hiding. But Israel needs US help to go the final mile. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set the destruction of Iran's nuclear capabilities as the principal objective of 'Operation Rising Lion'. As Israel does not have capabilities to destroy Iran's underground nuclear sites, that's an impossible objective unless Israel's principle partner, the United States, steps in. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The war might appear as a gamble as the success rests on whether US President Donald Trump joins or not, that is not the case and the decision to launch the war was a calculated move, says Daphne Richemond Barak, a professor of international relations at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy & Strategy at Israel's Reichman University. Despite being the principal objective, the destruction of nuclear sites is the one that's least achieved so far as the Fordow nuclear site, which houses Iran's most advanced centrifuges that produce near-weapons grade uranium, remains standing. But that may change soon as Trump sought Iran's 'unconditional surrender' on Tuesday and appeared to set the tone for military action. ALSO READ: As Netanyahu dares Khamenei, here's timeline of Israel-Iran conflict Barak tells Firstpost, 'There is definitely a certain hope on part of Prime Minister Netanyahu of the United States joining the war. Israel has already degraded Iran's capabilities to a great extent that goes a long way in denying it a nuclear weapon.' Fordow: The mountain nuclear base that stands in way of Israeli victory — and how Israel plans to breach it After striking Natanz, all eyes are on the Fordow nuclear site, which is housed in an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) base and built inside a mountain. It is situated near the holy city of Qom. While some sources say it goes as deep as half a mile underground, Barak, a specialist in underground warfare, says the facility reaches the depth of 60-100 metres — beyond the scope of Israel's munitions. Barak says that Fordow is not built simply under 60-100 metres of soil, but it is built under 60 to 100 metres of concrete. The Natanz site is understood to be similarly built with 20-3o metres of concrete above it. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'For more than a decade, Iran has progressively and consistently placed its nuclear programme deep underground. While Fordow and Natanz are well known, such facilities are spread across Iran. Israel can attempt to destroy such facilities in two ways. The first is the Nasrallah way and the second is through special, heavy 'bunker buster' munitions that only the United States has,' says Barak. The first option refers to how Israel assassinated former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last year in Beirut, Lebanon. He was also hiding in a bunker with 18-20 metres of concrete above him. 'Israel struck the top of Nasrallah's bunker with precision-guided bombs. Israel launched bombs on top of each other until they breached through 20 metres of concrete and killed Nasrallah. Such brute strength is enough to reach the underground levels of Natanz but not Fordow,' says Barak. In Nasrallah's case, Israel dropped around 80 tons of explosives in serial strikes on top of each other within just 10 seconds — like hammering an 80-ton explosive nail through concrete until it reached Nasrallah. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In the second option, US 'bunker buster' munitions, the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) and GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs, would be used. They can penetrate up to 60 metres of concrete. To breach the reinforced roof of the Fordow facility, multiple strikes of such ordnance — colloquially called 'mother of all bombs'— would be required. 'These bombs have hardened metal tips and are heavy by themselves even without explosives. With their weight and speed that they are launched from, these bombs penetrate their target whether it's soil or concrete. They do not explode immediately on impact," Barak says. 'Instead, they explode after they have penetrated the target. The delayed explosion after penetration means the damage is concentrated inside the target structure and not on top of it. This also increases the radius of the area these bombs damage,' says Barak, the author of the book 'Underground Warfare' (2018). ALSO READ: As Israel goes to war with Iran, here's how Islamic Revolution turned partners into enemies STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD It is not just that these bombs are with the United States, but only a select few in the US military have the expertise to launch them. The GBU-43/B MOAB can only be launched by a modified C-130 aircraft from its ramp and GBU-57A/B MOP can only be launched from a B-2 stealth bomber. While the United States can theoretically loan these assets to Israel, it will likely not be the case as the United States guards such technology zealously even from its closest allies and partners. This means that if such bunker busters are used, they would most likely be dropped by the US Air Force itself. Barak says that Prime Minister Netanyahu is hopeful the United States will join and there are multiple ways that may happen. 'President Trump might decide to join proactively or he could join in response to an Iranian attack on US bases in the region or could launch a pre-emptive strike in response to an imminent attack. After all, the Israeli operation is also a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear programme as Israel believes that this would be the final window to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon,' says Barak. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Indeed, there are indications that may happen — or at least preparations are being made. Trump lays groundwork for attack on Iran After maintaining for the first three days of the war that he would prefer a deal with Iran to end the conflict, Trump started laying groundwork for direct military involvement over the weekend. After moving more than 30 aerial refuelling tankers to Europe to support operations in West Asia over the weekend, Trump bolstered existing squadrons in the region with additional fighter planes on Tuesday. US Navy's Nimitz carrier strike group is also being rushed to the region to join Carl Vinston carrier strike group — two carrier strike groups generally comprise at least 120 warplanes, four cruisers, four destroyers, and possibly submarines as well. ALSO READ: Israel's multi-front war with Iran could alter power dynamics in West Asia for a long time In what appeared to be an attempt to set pretext for an attack, the Trump administration posted dozens of videos of Trump in a thread on X that mentioned all the occasions over the years when Trump said he would not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. Barak says that the US positioning might not just be about attacking Iran, but it could also be about pressuring Iran into reaching a deal — Trump after all prides himself as a master dealmaker. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD What's the road ahead? 4 possibilities As Israel has battered Iran and cornered Khamenei, Barak tells Firstpost there are four possibilities how the conflict might conclude. Firstly, Trump might join the war and bomb Iran's nuclear sites. Secondly, Trump refuses to join the war but supports Israel's war — minus the supply of bunker busters to destroy the Fordow site. 'In such a case, it might appear that Israel would have lost, but that would not be the case. Even without destroying Fordow, Israel has degraded Iran's capabilities and set the Iranian nuclear programme back by many years. That is a good enough outcome for Israel short of complete destruction of nuclear capabilities,' says Barak. Thirdly, the Israeli campaign serves as a pressure on Khamenei to enter negotiations seriously and reach a deal. Fourthly, even as Israel batters Iran, the people of the country rise up against Khamenei's regime — Netanyahu has said that one of the outcomes of the war could be a change of regime in Iran. However, not everyone agrees with Barak. There is a line of thought that anything short of complete destruction of Iranian nuclear capabilities would lead to Khamenei going full-throttle for the development of a nuclear weapon to make up for lost conventional deterrence. Barak says that he would not be in a position to do so. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'A week ago, Khamenei could perhaps have developed a weapon in a short duration if he wanted to. Now, we are not living in the same world as a week ago. The various capabilities involved in making a nuclear weapon have been degraded enough so that even if the Fordow site is left standing, Iran would not be in a position to make a nuclear weapon for years,' says Barak. Even though Israel could not cause much damage to the underground levels of the Natanz facility, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi has told BBC News that all centrifuges at the underground uranium enrichment facility at the Natanz nuclear site were 'severely damaged if not destroyed altogether'. While the centrifuges were not directly hit, they were still affected as Israel's aboveground strikes 'completely destroyed' electricity systems that were required to sustain those centrifuges, according to Grossi. Could Natanz's centrifuges be a metaphor for what might be in the offing for Khamenei? While Israel may not go after Khamenei, a chain reaction may still paralyse his regime in the days to come.
News18
06-06-2025
- Politics
- News18
‘Vicious…' Man Sets People On Fire At Colorado's Gaza Hostage Rally, Suspect Soliman Held
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News18
06-06-2025
- Politics
- News18
Japan Spots Chinese Vessel Beyond "First Island Chain", US-Philippines Hold Drill in South China Sea
More from world Trump And Musk's Spectacular Split Minute-By-Minute: How President & First Buddy's Friendship Ended Booby-Trap Kills 4 IDF Soldiers, Bibi Admits Arming Anti-Hamas Gaza Gang, French "Genocide" Probe "Nuclear Dust Would Have Blown..." Trump Takes India-Pak Truce Credit, Russia Hails "Involvement" US Sanctions Four ICC Judges Over Israel-US Probes, UN, EU Fume As Court's Independence 'Undermined'
News18
01-06-2025
- Politics
- News18
‘Locked, Launched, Guided…' Report ‘Reveals' Pakistan's China ‘Kill Chain' Behind India Jet 'Losses'
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