Latest news with #Iran-Iraq
First Post
an hour ago
- Politics
- First Post
Iran-Israel War: How Tehran & Tel Aviv Went from Friends to Arch-Enemies Firstpost America
Iran-Israel War: How Tehran & Tel Aviv Went from Friends to Arch-Enemies | Firstpost America | N18G Iran-Israel War: How Tehran & Tel Aviv Went from Friends to Arch-Enemies | Firstpost America | N18G Iran and Israel were once friends, allegedly sharing intelligence, oil, and military ties. But after Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, relations collapsed. Iran's first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, allegedly ended all cooperation with Israel, denounced its occupation of Palestine, and reportedly closed its embassy. Despite alleged secret dealings during the Iran-Iraq war, tensions rose over time. Iran's alleged support for anti-Israel groups and Israel's fears over Tehran's missile and nuclear programmes turned the former friends into arch-enemies. Now, with their conflict entering its seventh day, the decades-long hostility is reaching a dangerous new phase. Watch the video to know more. See More
The Star
2 hours ago
- Business
- The Star
Even Big Oil thinks Big Oil is getting too risky these days
What's an oil producer to do when it sees its core product under threat from declining demand and a war-torn neighbourhood? Just ask Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. The US$19bil all-cash bid for Australian gas producer Santos Ltd on Monday, from a consortium led by the state-owned United Arab Emirates (UAE) business also known as Adnoc, is one answer to the question. Adnoc has been on a shopping spree for gas assets in recent years. In common with its far larger peer Saudi Arabian Oil Co, which is currently spending more money developing new gas fields than crude reserves, it's been gradually transforming itself from a business that lives and dies on black gold, to one that cares as much about liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships as oil tankers. Just look at the list of deals made and mooted lately. Last May, it bought a stake in NextDecade Corp's liquefied natural gas export project in Texas. In April, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News it was considering a US$9bil bid for Aethon Energy Management's gas assets in Texas and Louisiana. It's also interested in buying BP Plc's gas assets in a potential breakup, Bloomberg News reported last week. In 2023, Adnoc spun off its own gas business and floated it on the Abu Dhabi stock exchange, where it makes up about one-seventh of the market. Last year, it started building an export terminal at Ruwais in the west of the country, a huge complex sufficient to meet all of Turkey's needs for imported LNG. In an environment where Israel's attack on Iran is ratcheting up the risk of all-out war in the region, there are several advantages to this strategy. For one thing, there's the perennial fear that Tehran, if pushed to the brink, may start creating problems in the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow stretch of water is guarded by Iran, Oman, and the UAE. Sustained attacks on shipping haven't happened since the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, not least because Iran's export revenues would suffer quite as much as its enemies'. It's still prudent to minimise the risk from such a weak point, though, in case a cornered Iranian government reaches for desperate measures. We're facing a world where oil demand is looking distinctly shaky, with crude production still sitting below the peak it hit back in 2018. Gas isn't doing that much better, with growth slowing well below historic rates thanks to the collapse in Russian pipeline exports since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and a rising price that's deterring potential buyers in developing Asia and Africa. The segment of gas that's traded as LNG, however, has been a winner, with the capacity of liquefaction plants set to increase by about 40% between now and 2030. Maritime straits, like gas pipelines, are highly vulnerable to geopolitical meddling. If you can buy LNG assets that aren't exposed to Middle Eastern wars, however, you can avoid both the chronic decline in conventional petroleum demand, and the acute risks of conflict-driven supply shocks. These days, such assets aren't as abundant as a cash-rich national oil company might hope. Santos shares closed at a roughly 13% discount to Adnoc's cash offer on Monday, which has already been recommended by the target's board. Given the open-and-shut nature of the proposal, that's likely to reflect worries that Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board won't like the idea of a state-owned company that doesn't even publish financial statements buying the country's second-biggest petroleum business. It's still more likely to get over the line than other options out there. President Donald Trump was happy to boast about the deals struck with UAE businesses during his trip to the Middle East last month – but if you want an outright takeover, the United States in its current nativist mood probably isn't the best place to be looking. The final agreement over the sale of United States Steel Corp to Nippon Steel Corp, giving the US government a golden share that would allow it to dictate corporate policies, is an indicator of where things are headed. Other prospective regions such as South America, Central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are already largely locked up by state-owned and independent oil companies. Europe's North Sea is in inexorable decline. Pickings are looking slim. The UAE is better placed than many to ride out the transition away from fossil fuels. Its vibrant non-oil economy means it can balance its budget and current account at the lowest crude prices in the Gulf. Only Qatar and Turkmenistan, among major petroleum exporters, do better – and each is essentially a gas producer, not an oil state. Eking out future revenues as the world's hunger for oil and gas declines is going to require emulating them, rather than the UAE's more oil-rich neighbours. — Bloomberg David Fickling is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. The views expressed here are the writer's own.
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First Post
13 hours ago
- Politics
- First Post
What is the Sejjil missile that Iran launched in its latest attack on Israel?
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Thursday launched the Sejjil medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) in an attack on Israel – the first time it has used this weapon during the conflict. But what do we know about it? Could this mark a turning point? read more A Sejjil missile is being moved along the reviewing stand during a military parade to commemorate the anniversary of the start of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, in Tehran September 22, 2009. REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi (IRAN POLITICS MILITARY) Iran on Thursday fired a Sejjil missile at Israel. This marks the first time Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has launched this medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) in an attack on Israel. 'The twelfth wave of Operation 'True Promise 3' has begun with the launch of ultra-heavy, long-range, two-stage Sejjil missiles," the IRGC said in a statement. 'Sejjil missiles, powered by solid fuel and with long-range capabilities, are among Iran's most accurate and powerful strategic weapons. They possess the ability to penetrate and destroy critical enemy targets.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Iran launched 'Operation True Promise 3' to counter Israel's 'Operation Rising Lion'. But what do we know about the Sejjil missile? Let's take a closer look: What do we know? The Sejjil is an indigenously-designed and developed two-stage, solid-propellant ballistic missile. It is also known as the Sajjil, Ashoura, and Ashura missile. Read Israel Iran conflict live updates Work on designing the Sejjil missile began in the early 1990s. It built off the previous work on the Zelzal short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) – with assistance from China. The Sejjil missile is around 18 meters long and 1.25 metres wide It weighs 23,600 kilos and carried a 700 kilo warhead. It can carry both normal explosives and nuclear warheads. It has a range of around 2,000 kilometers – which puts the entirety of West Asia in its range. Though its technical specifications are similar to Iran's Shahab 3 variants, those missiles were liquid-fuelled. The Sejjil missile can be launched much quicker than the Shahab 3, which needs to be fuelled before being launched. The solid fuel also allows the muscle to be easily transported by road. However, these missiles can be more difficult to navigate. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Israeli air defense system fires to intercept missiles during an Iranian attack over Tel Aviv, Israel, early Wednesday, June 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Leo Correa) The missile was first tested in 2008 and then again in 2009. Iran has tested the missile at least four times since then – the last one being in 2012 when the missile went into the Indian Ocean. Iran then inducted the missile into service. The missile is said to have multiple variants. A Sejjil 3.0 missile is said to be in the works. It is said to have a range of 4000 kilometers, weigh around 38,000 kilos and be a three-stage missile. Iran in 2021 claimed it had added 'enhanced inertial navigation and jet vane control' to the missile to make it more accurate. Could it be a turning point in the war? It depends on whether the Sejjil managed to penetrate Israel's air defences – which remains unconfirmed. The IRGC's claim comes on a day when Iran hit a number of targets in Israel including the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba city, the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and residential buildings. However, Israel claims it has intercepted this missile, whose fragments caused only minor damage to a vehicle. Israel, meanwhile, struck a heavy water reactor linked to Iran's nuclear program. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz blamed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and said the military 'has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.' US officials said earlier this week that President Donald Trump had vetoed an Israeli plan to kill Khamenei. Trump later said there were no plans to kill him, 'at least not for now.' With inputs from agencies
Time of India
15 hours ago
- Politics
- Time of India
Cornered in a hidden bunker, Ali Khamenei faces his toughest choice yet — surrender or let Iran fall?
Iran's supreme leader faces nuclear crossroads: will Ayatollah Khamenei drink the 'cup of poison'?- In a high-stakes moment echoing a painful chapter from Iran's past, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei now faces a historic decision that could shape the future of the Islamic Republic. Hidden deep inside a bunker, Iran's Supreme Leader is being pushed toward what his predecessor once described as drinking a 'cup of poison' — a metaphor for accepting political surrender in the face of overwhelming pressure. Back in 1988, Khamenei's mentor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, made a similar choice, ending the Iran-Iraq war despite years of defiant rhetoric. Now, Khamenei finds himself in a far more dangerous situation, as U.S. and Israeli forces ramp up military pressure and Iran's nuclear facilities come under attack. According to multiple sources including Axios (June 18 report), Khamenei relocated to a fortified bunker in the Lavizan military district in Tehran after Israeli airstrikes struck near several Iranian command centers. These precision strikes came just days after President Donald Trump demanded Iran's 'unconditional surrender' and warned of more aggressive action if Iran did not comply. The U.S. has moved several military assets into the region, including B-2 bombers armed with 30,000-lb GBU-57 bunker buster bombs, targeting underground sites like Fordow nuclear facility. Khamenei's bunker move is seen by analysts as a direct response to the growing risk of assassination or decapitation strikes. In Tehran, roads leading to the Lavizan area are reportedly blocked off, and military vehicles have been seen guarding the perimeter. Western intelligence claims that Khamenei is not alone—some of his senior advisors and family members are believed to be with him. Live Events What does 'drinking the cup of poison' mean in today's nuclear crisis? The phrase "cup of poison" first entered Iran's political vocabulary in July 1988, when Ayatollah Khomeini agreed to a ceasefire with Saddam Hussein's Iraq, ending the devastating eight-year Iran-Iraq war. That decision came only after Iran was exhausted — militarily, economically, and socially. Khomeini's son later wrote that the Ayatollah was so broken by the decision, he never walked again or spoke publicly until his death in June 1989. Today, the stakes are even higher. Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader since 1989, is being forced to consider a similar surrender — not over a war, but over Iran's nuclear program, which he has personally championed for over two decades. What choices does Khamenei have now—surrender or resist? Right now, Iran's leadership is cornered. The story of Ali Khamenei being forced into hiding shows just how far the crisis has gone. On one hand, Khamenei could agree to U.S. and Israeli demands, which include halting nuclear work, disbanding the IRGC's foreign proxy operations, and rolling back missile programs. But surrendering would be a major blow to the ideology of the Islamic Republic and Khamenei's own legacy. On the other hand, resisting any agreement means facing more airstrikes, deeper sanctions, and possibly regime collapse. The country's military capability is already stretched. Israeli drones have knocked out several missile bases in the past two weeks. The IRGC has reportedly lost more than 140 personnel since the strikes began. U.S. defense officials say they are prepared to go further. In a press briefing on June 17, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said, 'Our forces are ready. We have options on the table, and we're not ruling anything out.' He also confirmed that U.S. assets were tracking Iran's nuclear facilities 'very closely.' Could this be the end of Iran's current regime? The story of Ali Khamenei retreating to a bunker raises serious questions about the future of Iran's leadership. Many analysts believe this is the closest Iran has come to a complete regime collapse since 1979. The country is under economic pressure from both international sanctions and internal protests. Over the past 12 months: Iran's inflation rate has crossed 45% . The currency (rial) has fallen to 700,000 per U.S. dollar in unofficial markets. Unemployment among youth is over 27% , according to internal data leaked by the BBC Persian team. Protests have returned to cities like Isfahan, Mashhad, and parts of Tehran, despite crackdowns. Videos circulating on social media show Iranians chanting against the regime and holding up signs that read, 'Where is our future?' Sources close to the situation say a 'shadow cabinet' is being discussed by Iranian exiles in Europe and the U.S., should the regime fall. Former diplomats have suggested that the Biden administration is in quiet contact with these exile groups, though no official talks have been confirmed. How did Iran's nuclear program become the regime's red line? Iran's nuclear ambitions took shape under Khamenei's leadership in the 1990s. One of the most significant moves was the secret construction of the Natanz enrichment facility, located about 200 miles south of Tehran in the Dasht-e-Kavir desert. Natanz was meant to be covert. But in 2002, its existence was exposed, drawing global attention and triggering massive international pressure. Rather than back down, Khamenei doubled down. By 2009, the U.S. and U.K. jointly revealed another hidden plant — Fordow, buried deep under a mountain near Qom. Despite the exposure and mounting economic sanctions, Iran continued its nuclear development. The goal was clear: mastering uranium enrichment, the key step in producing weapons-grade material. Why is uranium enrichment so critical to Iran's nuclear goals? Uranium enrichment lies at the heart of Iran's nuclear program. This process, which can produce fuel for nuclear reactors, also has a darker use — producing weapons-grade uranium for nuclear bombs. Only a few nations possess this capability. Under Khamenei's leadership, Iran pushed forward, installing about 20,000 centrifuges and stockpiling over 8 tonnes of enriched uranium. In 2015, these efforts led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — a deal with world powers, including the U.S., that allowed Iran limited enrichment under heavy inspections. But that deal collapsed in 2018, when then-President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement. Israel, under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was also a vocal critic. Since then, Iran has rapidly expanded its nuclear efforts, ignoring Western warnings and sanctions. Has Khamenei's nuclear defiance backfired? Khamenei believed that a robust nuclear program would deter attacks and solidify Iran's security. In reality, it may have done the opposite. Israel began assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists as early as 2010. Its air force has recently intensified airstrikes across Iran, reportedly damaging centrifuge facilities at Natanz and possibly other locations. These attacks suggest that Israel has deep intelligence within Iran, penetrating even the regime's most secure operations. Iran's regional alliances have also taken hits. Groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, once seen as deterrents to Israeli aggression, have suffered major blows. The resources Iran spent on them might have been better used to strengthen domestic air defenses, which now seem unable to stop Israeli jets. What is pushing Khamenei to consider surrender now? While Khamenei is known for his hardline views and personal resilience, the current crisis may be forcing him to reconsider. The survival of the Islamic Republic — his ultimate priority — is under serious threat. Trump and Netanyahu are coordinating efforts to corner Khamenei. Their message: Iran must give up uranium enrichment completely, or face regime collapse. Despite public threats, insiders suggest that Khamenei isn't driven by fear for his own safety. He sees the nuclear program as a national right. But even he may not ignore the rising risk that continued defiance could destroy the entire system he's led for 35 years. Is surrender the only path left for Iran's Supreme Leader? Khamenei's past choices have narrowed his options. The nuclear project, once meant to empower Iran, has instead isolated it. Secret facilities failed to stay secret. Economic sanctions have crippled the economy. The forces meant to protect the country have proven vulnerable. Today, Khamenei's legacy is at a crossroads. Will he stand firm and risk total regime collapse, or accept the bitter truth and drink his own cup of poison? That question may define Iran's future — and determine whether a new chapter of diplomacy opens, or a wider conflict begins. FAQs: Q1: What is Ayatollah Khamenei's nuclear dilemma today? He must choose between giving up uranium enrichment or risking Iran's regime survival. Q2: Why is uranium enrichment so important for Iran? It's the key step that allows Iran to make nuclear fuel or potentially a nuclear bomb.
Reuters
15 hours ago
- Politics
- Reuters
Israel's airstrikes aim to break foundations of Khamenei's rule in Iran
Dubai, June 19 (Reuters) - Israel's sweeping campaign of airstrikes aims to do more than destroy Iran's nuclear centrifuges and missile capabilities. It seeks to shatter the foundations of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's government and leave it near collapse, Israeli, Western and regional officials said. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants Iran weakened enough to be forced into fundamental concessions on permanently abandoning its nuclear enrichment, its ballistic missile program and its support for militant groups across the region, the sources said. He also wants to leave Khamenei's government debilitated. The campaign is about "exhausting the regime's ability to project power and maintain internal cohesion," one senior regional official said. Iran's Islamic government faces an existential crisis unlike anything since the 1979 Revolution - not even the brutal 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war posed such a direct threat to clerical rule. Israel, the Middle East's most advanced military, can strike anywhere in Iran with drones and advanced F-35 fighter jets, assassinations by Mossad operatives, and cyberwarfare technology. In recent days, Israel has broadened its targets to include government institutions like the police and state television headquarters in Tehran. Netanyahu's government is planning for at least two weeks of intense airstrikes, according to four government and diplomatic sources, though the pace depends on how long it takes to eliminate Iran's missile stockpiles and launch capacity. Dennis Ross, a former Middle East envoy and advisor to several U.S. administrations, believes Iran is feeling the pressure and may be inching toward the negotiating table after the strikes eliminated much of Khamenei's inner circle, damaged nuclear infrastructure and missile sites, and killed top security figures. "I do think the regime feels vulnerable," said Ross, now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. While he insisted Israel's primary aim is to cripple Iran's nuclear and missile programs, Ross conceded that if the regime were to fall as a consequence, "Israel wouldn't be sorry." Despite U.S. President Donald Trump's belligerent tone in recent days, he would likely accept if Tehran can offer a credible path to a deal, Ross said. But, after Tehran offered no concessions during six previous rounds of nuclear negotiations with the U.S., Washington will need firm assurances from Iran that its goals, including the permanent abandonment of enrichment, will be met before it will support a ceasefire. "I think the cost to them is going to be high,' he said. For Iran, there is one key calculation: letting the 86-year-old Khamenei retreat without humiliation, two Iranian sources said. Strip him of dignity or the prospect of survival and he may choose all-out conflict, they added. After Trump demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender" on social media on Tuesday, Khamenei promised in a televised speech that any U.S. military intervention in Iran would be met with "irreparable damage". In recent days, Netanyahu has also overtly raised the prospect of regime change, promising Iranians "the day of liberation is coming". Regional governments are fearful the situation could spiral out of control, pushing Iran - an ethnically diverse nation of 90 million people that straddles the Middle East and Asia - into chaos or unleashing a conflict that could spill across its borders. "You can't reshape the region through belligerent force," said Anwar Gargash, advisor to the president of the United Arab Emirates. "You might resolve some issues, but it will create others." Iran's decades-old playbook - waging war from the shadows via its proxies - collapsed under an Israeli offensive following the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Palestinian Islamist group Hamas. Its regional Axis of Resistance crumbled, with Hamas crushed in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon defeated, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad ousted by rebels, and the Houthi militia in Yemen on the defensive. Russia and China - seen as allies of Tehran – have remained on the sidelines, leaving Iran isolated in the face of Western powers determined to end its regional influence and nuclear ambitions. "Iran isn't just facing Israel," said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, based in Washington D.C. "It's facing off the United States and European powers." And while Sunni Arab Gulf states have publicly condemned Israel's strikes, privately leaders in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi – longtime U.S. allies - may welcome a weakening of their Shi'ite rival, whose proxies have targeted vital Gulf infrastructure, including oil facilities, analysts say. Militarily, Tehran has few options. Israel controls the skies over Iran, having largely destroyed its air defences. Much of Iran's stockpile of ballistic weapons is believed to have been damaged by Israeli strikes, and 400-or-so it has fired have mostly been destroyed by Israel's multi-layered aerial defence system. "When the missiles run out, what's left?," asks Vatanka. But with the Iranian opposition fragmented and no signs of divisions within the powerful Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), which has nearly 250,000 fighters including its Basij militia volunteers, there is scant prospect Iran's ruling elite will collapse easily. There have been no major protests on the streets of Tehran, and many Iranians profess anger towards Israel for the attacks. Without a ground invasion or domestic uprising, regime change in Iran is a distant prospect, the officials said. On Tuesday, Trump issued a veiled threat to Khamenei, declaring that U.S. intelligence knows his location and had no intention to kill him "for now". Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September plunged the Lebanese group into disarray but regional officials and observers warned that killing the ageing Khamenei would not have the same impact. "Real power now resides with his son, Mojtaba, and the IRGC, which is deeply embedded despite the loss of key commanders," one regional source said. "They remain the regime's spine." Killing Khamenei, a religious leader to millions of Shi'ites, could cause a major backlash. Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy U.S. national intelligence officer on the Middle East during Trump's first term, said that if the Israeli campaign does foment regime change in Iran, it could result – at least initially – in a more hardline administration. "What is likely to follow a theocratic Iranian government is not democracy but Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps–istan," said Panikoff, now at the Atlantic Council think-tank. "Israel might find itself in a perpetual, ongoing, and far more intense war that is no longer in the shadows." The next move belongs to Trump, Ross said, who must decide whether to intervene militarily to try to force Iran's hand. Israeli officials acknowledge that to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities – which are hidden in secure locations deep underground like the fortified Fordow site outside Tehran – it would need the U.S. to provide its largest bunker-busting bombs. On the other hand, if Trump declares a ceasefire linked to a nuclear deal with Iran, Netanyahu will not protest provided he can credibly claim that Tehran's threat to Israel has been fundamentally rolled back. In recent days, Trump has hardened his tone towards Iran, making veiled military threats while leaving open the possibility of negotiations. "No-one knows what I'm going to do," he told reporters on Wednesday, adding that Iranian officials had reached out about negotiations. "It's a little late." The message to Iran is clear, Ross said: start serious talks soon, or face a military situation far worse than today's. The White House referred Reuters to Trump's latest remarks and declined further comment for this story. In an effort to restart negotiations, the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Britain plan to hold nuclear talks with Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araqchi on Friday in Geneva. Mark Dubowitz, chief executive at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington, said he believed Trump ultimately wanted a diplomatic solution but he was likely to allow Israel more time to pursue its military campaign to give the U.S. more leverage at the negotiating table. Dubowitz, an Iran expert who has been consulted by the Trump administration on its policy, said Israel's main objective appears to be setting back Iran's nuclear program as many years as possible. Central to that is removing its human capacity by killing nuclear and weapons scientists, and Dubowitz said his team had identified 10 to 12 more who are likely being hunted by Israel. Meanwhile, Israel's opposition parties – and the public – have rallied behind Netanyahu, giving him leeway to pursue the difficult operation, despite Iranian missiles hitting Israeli soil. Israel is operating 1,500–2,000 km from home, with complex and costly logistical needs. "This is math," said one Israeli source. "How many missiles they launch. How many we destroy. How long we can keep going." The Israeli strikes have already killed key members of the so-called "weaponisation group" - those Israel alleges are tasked with turning enriched uranium into an actual bomb – and eroded Iran's ability to produce long-range missiles. That, Israeli leaders argue, creates the conditions for a U.S.-Iran agreement that addresses Israel's red lines. Yuli Edelstein, head of the Israeli parliament's Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, and a prominent member of the ruling Likud party, told Reuters that if Washington and key European powers engage diplomatically, apply pressure, and shape a clear exit plan, "they can prevent unnecessary developments in this war." If the conflict does escalate, regional officials fear a collapse of Khamenei's government would not lead to democracy but to fragmentation - or worse: a civil war, fuelled by Iran's marginalized minorities - Arabs, Kurds, Azeris, Baha'is, Baluchis and Christians - could erupt in a dangerous power vacuum. "And that," a Gulf source warned, "no one is ready for." The UAE foreign ministry directed Reuters to its statements condemning Israel's strikes against Iran. Saudi Arabia's and Qatar government media office did not respond to a request for comment. French President Emmanuel Macron echoed that warning at this week's G7 leaders summit, saying forced regime change in Iran would bring chaos. He cited the failures of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the 2011 NATO-backed intervention in Libya as cautionary examples. Vatanka, of the Middle East Institute, warned that shockwaves from the collapse of the government in Tehran would not stop at Iran's borders. "A destabilized Iran," he added, "could ignite unrest from Azerbaijan to Pakistan. Its collapse would reverberate across the region, destabilizing fragile states and reigniting dormant conflicts."
