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Yahoo
12 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
EUR/USD: How to Trade the Pair With Fed Decision Imminent Tomorrow
Market reactions remain muted despite Middle East tensions, with volatility limited outside of oil. Focus shifts to Fed as rate cut expectations hinge on data and tariff war impact. EUR/USD eyes a breakout above 1.16, supported by dovish Fed signals and weakening US outlook. Looking for actionable trade ideas to navigate market volatility? For a limited time, get access to InvestingPro's AI-selected stock winners for under $7/month. The sharp rise in tensions between Israel and Iran was expected to create massive turmoil in global financial markets. But apart from oil, both stock and currency markets have shown only limited volatility. If Iran does not go as far as closing the Strait of Hormuz, investors will likely turn their attention to this week's Fed meeting. The general expectation is that interest rates will remain unchanged, so markets will look for any signals about what the Fed might do in the coming months. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair is still moving upward. If the Fed takes a more dovish tone on Wednesday, the euro could rise past $1.16 and hold above that level. Based on current market expectations, the Federal Reserve is likely to make its next interest rate cut in September. This is later than what was expected in the first quarter. The delay is mainly due to uncertainty caused by the growing trade tensions, as the US has effectively started a broad tariff war. However, some key economic indicators suggest that the Fed could ease rates sooner. One such sign is the recent GDP data, which showed a quarterly decline for the first time since November 2022. If upcoming data also shows a decline, the Fed will find it hard to ignore the negative trend. As for inflation, the current range of 2–2.5% does not rule out the possibility of rate cuts—especially since inflation has come in below expectations for four straight months. This suggests that if not for the ongoing tariff war, interest rates in the US would likely be lower. As a result, any news about a possible trade deal—especially with China or the EU—could put downward pressure on the US dollar. At the same time, the Fed is also watching the labor market closely. As long as job data remains strong and does not show a sharp decline, the Fed has little reason to rush into further rate cuts. Meanwhile, in the eurozone, the cycle of monetary easing is still in progress. However, early signs suggest that this cycle may be nearing its end. This is reflected in recent comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and concerns that inflation could rise again if the EU and the US fail to reach a satisfactory trade agreement. In recent days, buyers have been pushing against the resistance level around 1.16. So far, sellers have managed to hold the line, but if the upward pressure continues, a breakout above this level seems likely given the current macroeconomic conditions. If the 1.16 resistance is broken, it could open the path toward much higher levels, with a technical target potentially above 1.23. However, reaching that level would depend on key factors that could weaken the US dollar, such as progress on trade deals or signs of a softer Fed stance. *** If you've been on the hunt for professional-grade investing tools to take your investment strategy to the next level, here's your chance. For a very limited time only, you can get full access to InvestingPro - our all-in-one investing platform - for just under $7 a month using this link. That means immediate access to insightful tools like: ProPicks AI: AI-selected stock winners with a proven track record. InvestingPro Fair Value: Instantly find out if a stock is underpriced or overvalued. Advanced Stock Screener: Search for the best stocks based on hundreds of selected filters and criteria. Top Ideas: See what stocks billionaire investors such as Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, and George Soros are buying. This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services. Related articles EUR/USD: How to Trade the Pair With Fed Decision Imminent Tomorrow US Dollar: Can Rising Geopolitical Tensions Spark a Trend Reversal? USD/JPY Wavers Near Major Support, BoJ's Potential Rate Hold Could Spur Volatility
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
EUR/USD: How to Trade the Pair With Fed Decision Imminent Tomorrow
Market reactions remain muted despite Middle East tensions, with volatility limited outside of oil. Focus shifts to Fed as rate cut expectations hinge on data and tariff war impact. EUR/USD eyes a breakout above 1.16, supported by dovish Fed signals and weakening US outlook. Looking for actionable trade ideas to navigate market volatility? For a limited time, get access to InvestingPro's AI-selected stock winners for under $7/month. The sharp rise in tensions between Israel and Iran was expected to create massive turmoil in global financial markets. But apart from oil, both stock and currency markets have shown only limited volatility. If Iran does not go as far as closing the Strait of Hormuz, investors will likely turn their attention to this week's Fed meeting. The general expectation is that interest rates will remain unchanged, so markets will look for any signals about what the Fed might do in the coming months. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair is still moving upward. If the Fed takes a more dovish tone on Wednesday, the euro could rise past $1.16 and hold above that level. Based on current market expectations, the Federal Reserve is likely to make its next interest rate cut in September. This is later than what was expected in the first quarter. The delay is mainly due to uncertainty caused by the growing trade tensions, as the US has effectively started a broad tariff war. However, some key economic indicators suggest that the Fed could ease rates sooner. One such sign is the recent GDP data, which showed a quarterly decline for the first time since November 2022. If upcoming data also shows a decline, the Fed will find it hard to ignore the negative trend. As for inflation, the current range of 2–2.5% does not rule out the possibility of rate cuts—especially since inflation has come in below expectations for four straight months. This suggests that if not for the ongoing tariff war, interest rates in the US would likely be lower. As a result, any news about a possible trade deal—especially with China or the EU—could put downward pressure on the US dollar. At the same time, the Fed is also watching the labor market closely. As long as job data remains strong and does not show a sharp decline, the Fed has little reason to rush into further rate cuts. Meanwhile, in the eurozone, the cycle of monetary easing is still in progress. However, early signs suggest that this cycle may be nearing its end. This is reflected in recent comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and concerns that inflation could rise again if the EU and the US fail to reach a satisfactory trade agreement. In recent days, buyers have been pushing against the resistance level around 1.16. So far, sellers have managed to hold the line, but if the upward pressure continues, a breakout above this level seems likely given the current macroeconomic conditions. If the 1.16 resistance is broken, it could open the path toward much higher levels, with a technical target potentially above 1.23. However, reaching that level would depend on key factors that could weaken the US dollar, such as progress on trade deals or signs of a softer Fed stance. *** If you've been on the hunt for professional-grade investing tools to take your investment strategy to the next level, here's your chance. For a very limited time only, you can get full access to InvestingPro - our all-in-one investing platform - for just under $7 a month using this link. That means immediate access to insightful tools like: ProPicks AI: AI-selected stock winners with a proven track record. InvestingPro Fair Value: Instantly find out if a stock is underpriced or overvalued. Advanced Stock Screener: Search for the best stocks based on hundreds of selected filters and criteria. Top Ideas: See what stocks billionaire investors such as Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, and George Soros are buying. This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services. Related articles EUR/USD: How to Trade the Pair With Fed Decision Imminent Tomorrow US Dollar: Can Rising Geopolitical Tensions Spark a Trend Reversal? USD/JPY Wavers Near Major Support, BoJ's Potential Rate Hold Could Spur Volatility Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
EUR/USD: How to Trade the Pair With Fed Decision Imminent Tomorrow
Market reactions remain muted despite Middle East tensions, with volatility limited outside of oil. Focus shifts to Fed as rate cut expectations hinge on data and tariff war impact. EUR/USD eyes a breakout above 1.16, supported by dovish Fed signals and weakening US outlook. Looking for actionable trade ideas to navigate market volatility? For a limited time, get access to InvestingPro's AI-selected stock winners for under $7/month. The sharp rise in tensions between Israel and Iran was expected to create massive turmoil in global financial markets. But apart from oil, both stock and currency markets have shown only limited volatility. If Iran does not go as far as closing the Strait of Hormuz, investors will likely turn their attention to this week's Fed meeting. The general expectation is that interest rates will remain unchanged, so markets will look for any signals about what the Fed might do in the coming months. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair is still moving upward. If the Fed takes a more dovish tone on Wednesday, the euro could rise past $1.16 and hold above that level. Based on current market expectations, the Federal Reserve is likely to make its next interest rate cut in September. This is later than what was expected in the first quarter. The delay is mainly due to uncertainty caused by the growing trade tensions, as the US has effectively started a broad tariff war. However, some key economic indicators suggest that the Fed could ease rates sooner. One such sign is the recent GDP data, which showed a quarterly decline for the first time since November 2022. If upcoming data also shows a decline, the Fed will find it hard to ignore the negative trend. As for inflation, the current range of 2–2.5% does not rule out the possibility of rate cuts—especially since inflation has come in below expectations for four straight months. This suggests that if not for the ongoing tariff war, interest rates in the US would likely be lower. As a result, any news about a possible trade deal—especially with China or the EU—could put downward pressure on the US dollar. At the same time, the Fed is also watching the labor market closely. As long as job data remains strong and does not show a sharp decline, the Fed has little reason to rush into further rate cuts. Meanwhile, in the eurozone, the cycle of monetary easing is still in progress. However, early signs suggest that this cycle may be nearing its end. This is reflected in recent comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and concerns that inflation could rise again if the EU and the US fail to reach a satisfactory trade agreement. In recent days, buyers have been pushing against the resistance level around 1.16. So far, sellers have managed to hold the line, but if the upward pressure continues, a breakout above this level seems likely given the current macroeconomic conditions. If the 1.16 resistance is broken, it could open the path toward much higher levels, with a technical target potentially above 1.23. However, reaching that level would depend on key factors that could weaken the US dollar, such as progress on trade deals or signs of a softer Fed stance. *** If you've been on the hunt for professional-grade investing tools to take your investment strategy to the next level, here's your chance. For a very limited time only, you can get full access to InvestingPro - our all-in-one investing platform - for just under $7 a month using this link. That means immediate access to insightful tools like: ProPicks AI: AI-selected stock winners with a proven track record. InvestingPro Fair Value: Instantly find out if a stock is underpriced or overvalued. Advanced Stock Screener: Search for the best stocks based on hundreds of selected filters and criteria. Top Ideas: See what stocks billionaire investors such as Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, and George Soros are buying. This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services. Related articles EUR/USD: How to Trade the Pair With Fed Decision Imminent Tomorrow US Dollar: Can Rising Geopolitical Tensions Spark a Trend Reversal? USD/JPY Wavers Near Major Support, BoJ's Potential Rate Hold Could Spur Volatility
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
S&P 500: Rising Risk-Off Tone Sets the Stage for a Deeper Pullback Below 6K
Political talks support markets but risks remain if US-China and US-Iran deals stall. S&P 500 and NASDAQ approach record highs with steady upward momentum holding for now. DAX corrects lower while WIG20 remains stuck in consolidation awaiting breakout direction. Looking for actionable trade ideas to navigate the current market volatility? Subscribe here to unlock access to InvestingPro's AI-selected stock winners. This week, stock markets moved mostly because of political and trade developments. New talks between Beijing and Washington brought both sides closer to a deal, though it still needs final approval from both Presidents. At the same time, President Donald Trump also said today that the US may soon reach a deal with Iran on its nuclear program. If no deal is made, the risk of military action will grow, which could lead to sharp drops in stock markets. Therefore, uncertainty remains high, especially after Israel attacked Iran's military bases. On the economic side, the main data this week was US inflation, which came in slightly lower than expected. This raised hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates a bit sooner. The S&P 500 continues to move steadily higher, supported by the lower boundary of its rising price channel. Right now, it has broken above the key 6000 level and is trying to hold above it, which remains the most likely scenario for now. The main target for buyers is the all-time high just below 6200, which now looks within reach. However, if the price breaks sharply below the lower band, the risk of a correction will increase, possibly bringing the index down toward the support zone between 5800 and 5700. Nasdaq 100 prices are also moving steadily higher, like the S&P 500, with buyers now approaching the record highs near 22300 points. A breakout to new highs currently looks like the most likely scenario. A drop below the support level of 21500 points would be a warning for buyers and could lead to a deeper correction toward 20500 points. Unlike the US indices, the DAX is seeing a stronger downward correction and is moving closer to a key support level at 23500 points. If this level breaks, it could open the way for further declines, with the next support around 21500 points. However, the market is still in an uptrend. If there is a strong rebound from the support level, it could offer a good opportunity to take a long position. *** Be sure to check out InvestingPro to stay in sync with the market trend and what it means for your trading. Whether you're a novice investor or a seasoned trader, leveraging InvestingPro can unlock a world of investment opportunities while minimizing risks amid the challenging market AI: AI-selected stock winners with a proven track record. InvestingPro Fair Value: Instantly find out if a stock is underpriced or overvalued. Advanced Stock Screener: Search for the best stocks based on hundreds of selected filters and criteria. Top Ideas: See what stocks billionaire investors such as Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, and George Soros are buying. Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk rests with the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services. Related articles S&P 500: Rising Risk-Off Tone Sets the Stage for a Deeper Pullback Below 6K Which Quantum Stocks Still Look Like Buys After the Recent Surge? Apple: WWDC Fails to Impress on AI - Is the $260 Target Still a Possibility? Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Crude Oil: Uptrend May Extend on Cautious Trade Deal Optimism, Supply Risks
Oil prices rose 5% on hopes of a US-China trade deal boosting demand. Tensions with Iran and weak nuclear talks raise the risk of regional conflict and price spikes. OPEC+ supply shortfalls and falling US inventories point to a possible crude shortage. Looking for actionable trade ideas to navigate the current market volatility? Subscribe here to unlock access to InvestingPro's AI-selected stock winners. Oil prices jumped by as much as 5% yesterday, bringing WTI crude close to $70 per barrel. The main reason for the rise is positive news about a possible trade deal between China and the US, though no final agreement has been reached yet. At the same time, talks with Iran over its nuclear program have not made much progress. If the negotiations fail completely, there is a risk of military conflict, which often pushes oil prices higher. Adding to the upward pressure, US oil inventories fell more than expected for the third month in a row. Looking at the different parts of the ongoing tariff war, the situation with China seems to have the biggest impact on financial markets, including oil. The latest statement says that the deal is almost complete, but both Donald Trump and Xi Jinping still need to sign it. Given how quickly things can change, nothing is certain yet. Still, the market is already hoping for a return to normal trade, especially for semiconductors and rare earth metals, which appear to be the key negotiating points for both countries. A revival in trade and a stable long-term deal would help GDP growth, which would also increase demand for oil. Yesterday's decision to withdraw some staff from the US embassy in Baghdad is a bad sign for the US-Iran talks on stopping Iran's nuclear program in exchange for easing Western sanctions. People involved in the talks say that Iran is demanding more, and although negotiations are still ongoing, the chances of a deal look slim. In the worst case, the US could launch strikes on Iran's nuclear sites. If that happens, Iran may retaliate, and the conflict could spread across the region, pushing oil prices much higher. Last month, OPEC+ announced a production increase of 310,000 barrels per day but managed to raise output by only 180,000 barrels. Key producers, led by Saudi Arabia, were unable to boost production as planned. Combined with falling US oil inventories, this points to a possible, at least short-term, shortage of crude on the global market, especially if trade activity and GDP growth in the US pick up. WTI crude oil has broken through the resistance level around $65 per barrel, opening the way for further gains. The next target for buyers is the supply zone near $72 per barrel, which is where a strong downward move started in early April. Any possible pullbacks are likely to face support near the intersection of the rising trend line and the previously broken resistance, which now acts as support. In a very bullish scenario, if prices break above $72 per barrel, they could even move toward this year's highs just below $80 per barrel. *** Be sure to check out InvestingPro to stay in sync with the market trend and what it means for your trading. Whether you're a novice investor or a seasoned trader, leveraging InvestingPro can unlock a world of investment opportunities while minimizing risks amid the challenging market AI: AI-selected stock winners with a proven track record. InvestingPro Fair Value: Instantly find out if a stock is underpriced or overvalued. Advanced Stock Screener: Search for the best stocks based on hundreds of selected filters and criteria. Top Ideas: See what stocks billionaire investors such as Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, and George Soros are buying. This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk rests with the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services. Related articles Crude Oil: Uptrend May Extend on Cautious Trade Deal Optimism, Supply Risks Silver: Potential Break Above $35 Could Unleash the Next Leg Up Amid Tight Supply Gold Eyes Breakout Above $3,380 as Long-Term Drivers Stay Firmly in Place
