Latest news with #INSEE
LeMonde
2 days ago
- Business
- LeMonde
Why the French economy is stuck in stagnation
With consumer spending failing to rebound, savings rates remaining at record highs, investments struggling to recover and foreign trade slipping back into deficit, all the engines of the French economy have come to a halt. According to the new outlook from INSEE, France's national statistics agency, published on Wednesday, June 18, GDP growth in 2025 is not expected to exceed 0.6%. This is likely a disappointment for the government, which had revised its growth forecast down to 0.7% in April, a 0.2-point drop from the 0.9% it still hoped for in January. Despite fresh uncertainty triggered by the war between Israel and Iran, Amélie de Montchalin, the minister for public accounts, said on Tuesday: "Our growth forecast remains achievable." INSEE's outlook is more pessimistic than the government's. Growth was barely positive in the first quarter (0.1%) and was only expected to reach 0.2% in each of the next three quarters. The French economy has not benefited from the slight improvement in the eurozone business climate, partly linked to lower interest rates. "Fiscal consolidation is weighing on activity," stressed Dorian Roucher, head of the economic outlook department at INSEE. Government consumption, for instance, fell in the first quarter of 2025 compared to 2024 (0.2% instead of 0.4%). The government, which must bring the public deficit down to 5.4% of gross domestic product in 2025 after 5.8% in 2024, is seeking to cut public spending by €40 billion. 'Excess savings' phenomenon Another handicap: Unlike the United Kingdom, Germany or Italy, France has not benefited from the "commercial rush" – that is, companies' rush to build up inventories ahead of the tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump in early April. This phenomenon led to a 1.7% jump in global trade in the first quarter. French foreign trade, after two strong years, slipped back into deficit. Despite the high-profile delivery of the cruise ship World-America by Chantiers de l'Atlantique to Swiss company MSC in March, exports fell by 1.8% in the first three months of the year. For 2025 as a whole, foreign trade is expected to reduce French GDP growth by 0.7 percentage points.
Reuters
3 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
French economy to grow 0.6% this year, INSEE says
PARIS, June 18 (Reuters) - France's economy is on course for sluggish growth through the whole of 2025 as weak manufacturing activity and public sector belt-tightening weigh on output, national statistics agency INSEE forecast on Wednesday. The euro zone's second-biggest economy is expected to maintain a quarterly growth rate of 0.2% from the second quarter on through the rest of the year, INSEE said in its latest outlook. Manufacturing output will remain flat through year-end amid weak production prospects and poor order books. Consumer spending will provide only modest support, accelerating temporarily in the summer to 0.4% quarterly growth before slowing to 0.3% in the fourth quarter. For the full year, the economy would grow 0.6%, down from 1.1% last year as consumer spending and rebuilding of business inventories only partially offset weak foreign trade. That is marginally less than the 0.7% the government has forecast for the year, which could complicate its efforts to keep its budget deficit to its target of 5.4% of economic output. Inflation was seen averaging only 1% this year and even lower at 0.8% using an EU-harmonised method for calculation, due to lower power prices and a price war among telecoms operators. Household consumption, the traditional driver of French growth, was forecast to rise 0.7% this year, matching purchasing power gains, while the savings rate was seen stable at a high level of 18.2%. Overall, domestic demand's contribution to growth this year would ease to 0.5 percentage points from 0.6 points in 2024, while external trade would drag growth by 0.7 points after supporting it by 1.3 points last year.
Euronews
04-06-2025
- Business
- Euronews
Infant mortality in the EU: An unexpectedly bleak picture
The infant mortality rate has increased in at least eight EU countries in 2024, according to the latest figures from the countries' national statistics offices. The infant mortality rate refers to the number of deaths of children under one year of age per 1,000 live births. In 2024, both France and Romania reported infant mortality rates surpassing the EU average of 3.3 deaths per 1,000 live births from 2023. Romania experienced a significant rise in its rate, jumping from 2.1 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2023 to 6.4 in 2024. This is followed by France, which saw the rate double from 2 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2023 to 4.1 deaths per 1,000 live births. This means that one child out of 250 dies before the age of one in France, according to the French Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE). Since 2015, France's infant mortality rate has consistently been higher than the EU average. Boys are 1.2 times more likely than girls to die before the age of one and twins or triplets are five times more at risk than any other children. Between 2023 and 2024, Portugal experienced a 20% increase in infant mortality rates, a trend that deviates from the country's overall mortality rate. The causes behind this trend are not clear, but several factors may contribute, including the increasing age of mothers, an increase in multiple pregnancies and geographic inequality of access to maternal health care, according to health experts. On the other hand, Latvia and Sweden have the lowest infant mortality rate in the EU. Currently, Lithuania, Ireland, Luxembourg, Denmark and Slovenia only have estimated numbers. 2024 was a year marked by health staff shortages and the closure of some maternity hospitals in countries like Portugal, Germany and France. During the summer of 2024, 10 Portuguese maternity wards were closed or with restrictions. This followed the government's presentation of a Health Emergency and Transformation Plan to be implemented in three months to guarantee general access to healthcare. In the past decade in France, 15% of small maternity units have closed. Over the past two decades, the number of doctors and nurses per capita has increased substantially in most EU countries. However, the workforce is ageing and interest in health careers among young people is declining due to low salaries and poor working conditions.
New Straits Times
28-05-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
French economy growth confirmed at 0.1pct in Q1
KUALA LUMPUR: France's economy grew slightly in the first quarter, final data from statistics office INSEE showed on Wednesday, confirming the preliminary reading of 0.1 per cent that showed a rise in companies' inventories balancing out weak domestic demand and exports. The result was in line with an average forecast in a Reuters poll of 24 economists. French households' purchasing power increased by 0.3 per cent, the same rate as in the previous quarter. Household savings rate grew to 18.8 per cent in the first quarter from 18.5 per cent in the last quarter of 2024, the statistics office said. French corporate profit margins inched down to 31.8 per cent in the first three months of the year from 32 per cent in the previous period.
Reuters
28-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
French economy growth confirmed at +0.1% in first quarter
May 28 (Reuters) - France's economy grew slightly in the first quarter, final data from statistics office INSEE showed on Wednesday, confirming the preliminary reading of +0.1%. A Reuters poll of 24 economists had on average forecast the same figure.
