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Its defences are smashed, its allies are quiet. No-one is going to help Iran
Its defences are smashed, its allies are quiet. No-one is going to help Iran

ABC News

time15 hours ago

  • Politics
  • ABC News

Its defences are smashed, its allies are quiet. No-one is going to help Iran

Iran's skies are open, its missile launchers are destroyed, and its allies are silent. Meanwhile, in Israel, restrictions are being relaxed, and citizens are returning to work and public spaces – although Iranian strikes have continued, with some hitting multi-storey buildings and a major hospital. Israel had been expecting a longer campaign and more intense retaliation from the Iranians, but Israeli intelligence operations and a series of strikes last year appear to have successfully weakened Iran's defences. Israeli jets and drones have needed only a few days to do the rest. Iran's "Axis of Resistance", a key tenet of its strategy of "forward defence", has proven impotent. The Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah, which Israel previously considered a more immediate danger than Iran, has done nothing. The group's guided missiles were thought to be Iran's insurance policy against an Israeli or United States attack. But Hezbollah's missile arsenal and weapons factories were badly damaged by a crushing Israeli air campaign last year, and the group felt abandoned by its Iranian sponsors during its hour of need. Now, Hezbollah knows any intervention in this conflict would see the group lose any chance of recovering, most likely dying out as both a political and military force with a whimper rather than a roar. The Shia militias in Iraq — supposedly powerful, heavily armed and aggressive — have also not acted. Only the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who were already firing ballistic missiles at Israel and attacking shipping in the Red Sea before Israel's attack, have maintained some form of token action, with the occasional missile or drone launch. Another ally, the Assad regime in Syria, collapsed late last year, in part because of Israel's success against Hezbollah. Iran's most powerful allies, China and Russia, have not intervened either. Iran has been supplying Russia with drones to use against Ukraine, but Russia has not helped defend against Israeli attacks. "Throughout the history between Iran and Russia, Russia has never been a reliable ally for Iran," Iran researcher Mahnaz Shirali told the ABC. "It has always been more of a dangerous neighbour, constantly eager to seize Iranian territories. It's the ayatollahs' foolishness that made them believe they could count on Russia. "Russia has never truly helped Iran. On the contrary, the Islamic Republic has helped Russia a great deal — providing them with missiles and drones." Yet, Russia refuses to build Iran an air defence system. "As for China, which supposedly supports Iran, it hasn't lifted a finger to help. And that's understandable," Dr Shirali said. "China does $US600 billion in trade with the United States every year. They're never going to sacrifice those $600 billion for the sake of the ayatollahs." While Israel has clearly been planning diligently to attack Iran, the Iranian government and military have proven unprepared and incapable of responding. As Israel did with its devastatingly accurate intelligence against Hezbollah — including booby-trapping pagers and walkie-talkies — Israeli operatives had extensively penetrated Iran, allowing Israel to quickly weaken defences and dominate the skies. Iran, struggling under sanctions and repressing its citizens for years, has repeatedly proven ripe for recruitment and infiltration. The country's advantages — a large, mountainous landmass, a big population and a standing army — have all been nullified by a swift, intense Israeli air campaign. "They thought they could go to war against Israel with their soldiers on the ground. They had absolutely no idea that war in 2025 is fought against an invisible enemy," Dr Shirali said. "They were completely unprepared for this modern form of warfare." None of this is to say Israel's attacks — particularly on scientists and residential areas — are legal under international law, or that Israel had a casus belli (legal justification) for attacking while Iran, which had previously signed a nuclear control deal, was in the middle of negotiating a new agreement with the US. Israel also cannot claim victory. It hasn't managed to disable Iran's secondary uranium enrichment site at Fordow, which is buried deep under a mountain, and Iran maintains a decentralised and extensive network of nuclear scientists and facilities. Iran — and regional neighbours who are watching Israel's attack with great unease — could well decide that it now has no choice but to build a nuclear weapon as soon as possible, as its other forms of deterrence have proven so ineffective. Israel is now switching to attacking elements of the Iranian government, hoping to weaken it enough that Iranians could overthrow it with a popular uprising. So far, that doesn't seem to be materialising, not least because powerful elements of Iran's theocratic regime remain. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which reports directly to the supreme leader, is almost a state within a state, with its own army, air force, navy and cyber directorate that sit outside the Iranian military. It also has lucrative commercial interests and political connections, as well as the infamous "Basij" paramilitary force, which claims it can mobilise up to 600,000 volunteers. The IRGC has violently suppressed previous attempts at democratic revolutions in Iran and could well do so again, despite Israeli attacks. Iran is a multi-ethnic society, and its opposition groups are not all aligned in their aims and interests. Previous western intervention for regime change in the Middle East and South Asia has had disastrous results — the civil war in Libya, the sectarian nightmare of Iraq that gave rise to the Islamic State terror group, and the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan are all in very recent history. Attempts to sow chaos have rewarded the worst actors in recent conflicts, with the most extreme and best-armed being the first to fill the power vacuum. The other powers in the Middle East will also be alarmed at Israel — the region's only nuclear-armed state and a non-signatory to the non-proliferation treaty — using massive force to dictate who can do what. Iran's government could also weather the Israeli — and potential US — assault and seek other ways to retaliate, such as asymmetric attacks, terrorism, or blocking shipping. "These are empty threats, but they're still dangerous," Dr Shirali said. "They have a capacity to cause harm." As Israel has found in Gaza, it is dangerous to begin a campaign without a clear exit strategy. Israel's goals are now unclear, and that's a recipe for further chaos in the region.

Countries 'pick a side' amid conflict as Donald Trump raises war stakes
Countries 'pick a side' amid conflict as Donald Trump raises war stakes

Daily Mirror

time2 days ago

  • Politics
  • Daily Mirror

Countries 'pick a side' amid conflict as Donald Trump raises war stakes

Immediately after Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion" to dismantle Iran's nuclear programme last week, most countries slammed Israel for the unprecedented attack As the Israel-Iran conflict enters its sixth day, world leaders have had enough time to cement their stance on the devastating conflict that could see the entire Middle East descending into a war. As Israeli warplanes bombard targets across the Islamic Republic, Tehran has managed to successfully penetrate Israel's Iron Dome defence system and has destroyed parts of major population hubs in Tel Aviv and Haifa. ‌ The general consensus from allies and foes is one of restraint, however most countries have indicated where their support lies. Much of the Arab world, including Iran's proxy forces and Turkey, stand resolutely behind Tehran and have blasted Israel's surprise attack. Meanwhile, the US and most of Europe have echoed Israel's own assertion that it has a right to defend itself. ‌ It has also exposed glaring hypocrisy from some countries who claim loyalty to traditional allies, but are clearly acting to protect their own self-interest. Britain Just hours after Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion", Sir Keir Starmer urged "restraint, calm and a return to diplomacy". He said that stability in the region "must be the priority" and that he was urging both countries to de-escalate. Reports say that in a later phone call, Starmer told Benjamin Netanyahu that Downing Street has "grave concerns" over Iran's nuclear programme, and that Israel has the right to defend itself. Turkey Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan - who severed diplomatic ties with Israel after the break out of the war with Gaza - came out strongly in its condemnation of Israel's actions. ‌ He warned a "devastating war" between Israel and Iran could spark another major refugee crisis. Yemen Yemen's Houthi Rebels - which is funded and backed by Tehran - is the first and only group or nation that has agreed to openly strike Israel. This includes all of Iran's other powerful militias, including Lebanon's Hezbollah, who were recently fighting Israel following the outbreak of war in Gaza. ‌ On Friday, a spokesperson for the group told Newsweek: "We have been at war for some time with the Zionist enemy entity." Gaza and Lebanon Both Hamas and Hezbollah issued scathing condemnations of the Israeli attack, but neither vowed any military response. ‌ Had this war broken out at another point in time, their response would likely have been different. But their own military operations against Israel have significantly impacted their ability to support Iran. Thousands of Hezbollah members were killed or injured last year in a spectacular Mossad operation that saw their communications devices explode in their hands. With senior leadership eliminated, including their longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, the Lebanese militants were forced to sign a peace deal with Israel. ‌ Iraq In the event of an all-out war, Iran could call on its allied Shia Islamist militias in Iraq, including the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) and Ka'taib Hezbollah, to take up arms against Israel's aggression. However, the government itself is said to have warned the militias from getting involved in the conflict. ‌ Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani condemned Israel's attack on Iran, saying: "The recent aggression against Iran poses a direct threat to the security and stability of Iraq and the region." Baghdad has also filed a UN Security Council complaint, claiming that Israel violated its airspace to conduct its aerial bombardment. Russia Russia - who recently signed a deal with Iran on deepening military ties - was quick to issue a statement after the war began. ‌ It read: "We strongly condemn the military actions undertaken by the State of Israel." But Western nations were not spared, with the Kremlin accusing countries of creating "anti-Iran hysteria". However, rather than offering its full support, it called on both countries to reduce tensions, adding that Washington was ready to continue talks in Oman. ‌ This signalled that Tehran should back down and sit down with the US, suggesting the Kremlin will not be offering any military support to the Islamic Republic. Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia backed Tehran in calling Israel's attacks "a clear violation of international laws and norms" before condeming the attack as "heinous". The country's Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman expressed his "condolences and sympathy" in a call with the Iranian president, but the kind words won't extend to military support after he said Riyadh "rejects the us of force to resolve disputes". Jordan In addition to Iraq, Israel's neighbour Jordan has accused Iran of invading its airspace and says it was forced to intercept drones and missiles headed for Israel after Tehran's retaliation. But it also strongly condemned Israel's attack and warned the same would happen to Israeli air assets should they breach its airspace. ‌ "The Kingdom didn't and will not allow any violation of its airspace, and it will not be a battlefield for any conflict," government spokesman Mohammad Al-Momani said. "The safety of the homeland is a red line... The Kingdom will not allow any attempt to threaten its security and the safety of its citizens." ‌ Egypt Egypt - which signed a historic peace treaty with neighbouring following their own war in 1979 - was a co-signatory on a 21-country statement that called for an end to "Israeli hostilities against Iran". UAE The United Arab Emirates has condemned "in the strongest terms Israel's military targeting of the Islamic Republic of Iran". Pakistan A senior Iranian lawmaker claimed that Pakistan - a nuclear-armed nation - had warned it would deploy thermonuclear weapons against Israel if Israel did so against the people of tehran. ‌ However, Pakistani officials later dismissed the claims as untrue. Taking to Twitter, Pakistani defence minister Khawaja Asif said: "Our nuclear capability is for the benefit of our people and defence of our country against the hostile designs of our enemies. ‌ "We do not pursue hegemonic policies against our neighbours which are being amply demonstrated by Israel these days." China Beijing condemned Israel's attacks as they happened, but soon turned to urging both countries to de-escalate like other countries. "If the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate or even spill over, the other countries in the Middle East will inevitably bear the brunt," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said Monday. ‌ " China will continue to maintain communication with relevant parties and promote talks for peace, so as to prevent more turmoil in the region." United States Before the attacks, President Donald Trump had cautioned Israel against taking action against Tehran while he continued to plug away at diplomatic efforts. Talks on the nuclear programmed were planned for last Saturday, the day after Israel's unprecedented attack. ‌ However, after the attack Trump has issued a series of erratic rants, claiming that the US could assassinate the country's leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, or even involve the US in the conflict. France France's President Emmanuel Macron blamed Tehran for "destabilisation of the whole region". He even said that France could take part in "protection and defence operations" should Iran retaliate. Germany Chancellor Friedrich Merz said: "The goal must remain that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons." India India - which is in a delicate situation as a leading buyer of Israeli military goods and a key economic partner of Iran - refused to join fellow members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in condemning the Israeli attacks.

Houthis consider resuming strikes on US targets to back Iran
Houthis consider resuming strikes on US targets to back Iran

The National

time3 days ago

  • Politics
  • The National

Houthis consider resuming strikes on US targets to back Iran

Yemen's Houthi rebels are considering resuming strikes on US targets in the Middle East and intensifying attacks on Israel in support of Iran, Yemeni security sources said on Sunday. The sources, based in Sanaa and Beirut, told The National that the group's leadership is considering the escalation in response to the US's apparent military support for Israel. "The Yemeni [Houthi] leadership may resort to escalating its confrontation against aggression in the region," said one of the sources. "There is information that Israeli aircraft are using US carriers in the northern Red Sea to launch attacks on Iran, and that refuelling is being conducted in the skies over northern Syria and northern Iraq." Another source said: "The Houthis are seeing the US again as a legitimate target now." Last month, US President Donald Trump said the Iran-backed Houthis 'capitulated' and that America would stop striking the rebels after they agreed to cease attacking ships in the Red Sea. Badr Al Busaidi, Oman's Foreign Minister, confirmed later that efforts to de-escalate the situation caused by the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, had resulted in a ceasefire between the two sides. However, the recent Israeli offensive against Iran could prompt the rebels to resume attacks on US forces in solidarity with Tehran, which has come under Israeli fire since Friday and responded with missile strikes on Israel. Taking advantage On Sunday, the Yemeni rebels claimed to have launched missiles at Israel in co-ordination with Iran, in the first acknowledged military action in support of Tehran by one of its regional proxies since the start of Israeli attacks. The Houthis launched ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv in the previous 24 hours, the group's spokesman Brig Gen Yahya Saree said in an announcement reported by the rebel-aligned Saba news agency. The region is braced for a protracted conflict after Israel's surprise bombardment of Iran's nuclear and military sites killed several senior generals and nuclear scientists. Iran responded by launching hundreds of ballistic missiles at Iran, and neither side has shown any sign of backing down. The Houthis, along with Hezbollah in Lebanon, began launching drone and missile attacks on Israel after the start of the Gaza war in October 2023. Hezbollah was once considered Iran's first line of defence against Israeli attacks, but Israel's retaliatory strikes against the group last year killed its political and military leaders and largely destroyed its arsenal. Lebanese officials have urged Hezbollah not to respond to the Israeli attacks on Iran and the group has assured them it would not, security sources told The National on Saturday. Iran-backed groups in Iraq, who also launched attacks on Israel over the war in Gaza, have responded to the attacks on Iran by calling for the accelerated departure of US troops from the country, with the powerful Kataib Hezbollah warning of 'additional wars in the region'. Israel has carried out a series of retaliatory strikes on Houthi-held areas in Yemen in recent months. "It is not unlikely that Yemen's attacks will expand if Israel's escalating crimes against our people – including against Iran – are not stopped. Israel brings ruin to the entire region, without exception. Isn't it likely that Israel will target Iraq next?," said one of the sources close to thinking of the Houthi rebels. "It is only natural that the Yemenis take advantage of Israel being preoccupied with facing waves of Iranian strikes," added the source. "Applying pressure on the Israeli entity from multiple directions, fronts, and avenues, militarily, politically, and economically, helps deter the Israeli government and its crimes across the region."

Houthis weigh resuming strikes on US targets to back Iran
Houthis weigh resuming strikes on US targets to back Iran

The National

time5 days ago

  • Politics
  • The National

Houthis weigh resuming strikes on US targets to back Iran

Yemen's Houthi rebels are considering resuming strikes on US targets in the Middle East and intensifying attacks on Israel in support of Iran, Yemeni security sources said on Sunday. The sources who are based in Sanaa and Beirut and familiar with Houthi plans, told The National that the group's leadership is weighing the escalation in response to the US's apparent military support for Israel. "The Yemeni [Houthi] leadership may resort to escalating its confrontation against aggression in the region," said one of the sources who spoke on condition of anonymity. "There is information that Israeli aircraft are using US carriers in the northern Red Sea to launch attacks on Iran, and that refuelling is being conducted in the skies over northern Syria and northern Iraq," added the source. "The Houthis are seeing the US again as a legitimate target now," explained another source. Last month, US President Donald Trump said Iran-backed Yemen's Houthis had 'capitulated' and that the US would stop attacking the Iran-backed rebels after they agreed to cease attacking ships in the Red Sea. Sayyid Badr Al Busaidi, the Omani Foreign Minister, confirmed later that efforts to de-escalate the situation caused by the Hamas October 7 attacks in 2023 against Israel, had resulted in a ceasefire between the two sides. However, the recent Israeli offensive against Iran could prompt the rebels to resume attacks on US forces in solidarity with Tehran, which has come under Israeli fire since Friday and responded with missile strikes on Israel. Taking advantage On Sunday, the Yemeni rebels claimed to have launched missiles at Israel in co-ordination with Iran, in the first acknowledged military action in support of Tehran by one of its regional proxies since the start of Israeli attacks. Houthi troops targeted Tel Aviv with several ballistic missiles in the previous 24 hours, the militia's military spokesman Brig Gen Yahya Saree said in an announcement reported by the rebel-aligned Saba news agency. The region is braced for a protracted conflict after Israel's surprise bombardment of Iran's nuclear and military sites killed several top generals and nuclear scientists. Iran responded by launching hundreds of ballistic missiles at Iran, and neither side has shown any sign of backing down. The Houthis, along with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon, began launching drone and missile attacks on Israel after the start of the Gaza war in October 2023. Hezbollah was once considered Iran's first line of defence against Israeli attacks, but Israel's retaliatory strikes against the group last year killed its political and military leaders and largely destroyed its arsenal. Lebanese officials have urged Hezbollah not to respond to the Israeli attacks on Iran and the group has assured them it would not, security sources told The National on Saturday. Iran-backed groups in Iraq, who also launched attacks on Israel over the war in Gaza, have responded to the attacks on Iran by calling for the accelerated departure of US troops from the country, with the powerful Kataeb Hezbollah warning of 'additional wars in the region'. Israel has carried out a series of retaliatory strikes on Houthi-held areas in Yemen in recent months. "It is not unlikely that Yemen's attacks will expand if Israel's escalating crimes against our people – including against Iran – are not stopped. Israel brings ruin to the entire region, without exception. Isn't it likely that Israel will target Iraq next?," said one of the sources close to thinking of the Houthi rebels. "It is only natural that the Yemenis take advantage of Israel being preoccupied with facing waves of Iranian strikes," added the source. "Applying pressure on the Israeli entity from multiple directions, fronts, and avenues, militarily, politically, and economically, helps deter the Israeli government and its crimes across the region.

Houthis strike Israel in co-ordination with Iran
Houthis strike Israel in co-ordination with Iran

The National

time5 days ago

  • Politics
  • The National

Houthis strike Israel in co-ordination with Iran

Yemen's Houthi rebels said on Sunday they had launched missiles at Israel in co-ordination with Iran, in the first acknowledged military action in support of Tehran by one of its regional proxies since the start of Israeli attacks on Iran on Friday. Houthi troops targeted Tel Aviv with several ballistic missiles in the previous 24 hours, the militia's military spokesman Brig Gen Yahya Saree said in an announcement reported by the rebel-aligned Saba news agency. 'Triumphing for the oppressed Palestinian and Iranian peoples … This operation was co-ordinated with the operations carried out by the Iranian army against the criminal Israeli enemy,' he said. The operation was successful, he said, without offering details. Israel launched its biggest military strike against Iran on Friday, prompting Iran to respond with drones and then salvos of ballistic missiles. The Houthis 'salute Iran, its people, army, and leadership, as they bravely, willfully, resolutely, and faithfully confront the brutal Zionist aggression', Brig Gen Saree said. Israel said on Friday that a missile launched from Yemen fell in Hebron in the occupied West Bank. The Houthis, however, did not claim responsibility for that attack. The region is braced for a protracted conflict after Israel's surprise bombardment of Iran's nuclear and military sites on Friday killed several top generals and nuclear scientists. Iran responded by launching hundreds of ballistic missiles at Iran, and neither side has showed any sign of backing down. The Houthis, along with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon, began launching drone and missile attacks on Israel after the start of the Gaza war in October 2023. Hezbollah was once considered Iran's first line of defence against Israeli attacks, but Israel's retaliatory strikes against the group last year killed its political and military leaders and largely destroyed its arsenal. Lebanese officials have urged Hezbollah not to respond to the Israeli attacks on Iran and the group has assured them it would not, security sources told The National on Saturday. Iran-backed groups in Iraq, who also launched attacks on Israel over the war in Gaza, have responded to the attacks on Iran by calling for the accelerated the departure of US troops from the country, with the powerful Kataeb Hezbollah warning of 'additional wars in the region'. Israel has carried out a series of retaliatory strikes on Houthi-held areas in Yemen in recent months. The group also faced near-daily US strikes since mid-March, until US President Donald Trump halted the offensive after the Houthis agreed to stop attacks on American ships.

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