Latest news with #HelimaCroft
Argaam
a day ago
- Business
- Argaam
Oil prices climb as Brent tops $77
Oil prices rose on Thursday after Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites and both sides continued exchanging missile fire, while markets watched for any US decision on formally entering the conflict. Brent crude futures for August delivery climbed 1.15%, or 89 cents, to $77.59 a barrel by 02:44 p.m. Mecca time. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for July delivery also gained 1.52%, or $1.14, to $76.28 per barrel. Goldman Sachs said in a note on Wednesday that the geopolitical risk premium is currently estimated at around $10 per barrel, driven by reduced Iranian supply and the possibility of wider disruptions that could push Brent prices above $90. RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft told Reuters that any perception of an existential threat in Iran could increase the risk of attacks on oil tankers and energy infrastructure, particularly if the US intervenes militarily.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Benchmark diesel price makes its biggest upward move since January
The weekly benchmark diesel price used as the basis for most fuel surcharges made its largest upward move since January and the third-largest increase since the start of 2024. The price published by the Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration effective Monday rose 10 cents/gallon to $3.571/g. It's the biggest increase since January 20. There was only one larger upward move in 2024. Retail prices lag movement in futures prices (though wholesale prices react quickly to changes in the futures market). Given that, attributing the higher benchmark to the increases in futures prices spurred by the Iran-Israel war might not be oil and diesel prices started to move higher on the back of Israel-Iran military action, there had been a strong upward push in the price of ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) on the CME commodity exchange that appears to be the primary cause of this week's big increase in the benchmark. From a settlement of $2.0445/g on June 2, ULSD climbed as high as a settlement of $2.2053/g on Wednesday. It dipped slightly Thursday, but roared ahead by 17 cts/g on Friday, after the military action between Iran and Israel commenced. ULSD Monday rose 3.46 cts/g, coming on a day when crude prices fell due to a perception in the market that the war's impact on oil supplies might be limited. Diesel's upward move Monday in contrast to the decline in crude could reflect the fact that if any Iranian supplies are impacted by the war, its crude is a heavier grade that would yield more diesel than gasoline. The front-month spread between ULSD and Brent Monday was just under 65 cts/g, the highest it had been since no signs of the conflict easing Tuesday, ULSD at approximately 10 a.m. was up 7.56 cts/g to $2.4689, a gain of 3.15%. If it settled there, it would be the highest ULSD settlement since February 20. The American Automobile Association's daily estimate of the national average diesel price Tuesday, released in the morning, was not far off from the DOE/EIA price. That price posted Tuesday by AAA was $3.567/g. That was up more than four cents from Monday's level of $3.524/g and up slightly more than 6 cts/g from a week ago. Going right to the source, a review of the downloadable pump prices at Pilot Flying J shows a clear upward trend, but not across the board. The increases could also reflect local conditions not tied to the broader diesel market. But some of the increases in effect Monday compared to Friday were significant. A 41-cent increase between Monday and Friday was recorded at Grand Prairie, Texas; prices were up 25.1 cents in White Hills, Arizona. But at the same time, a comparison of prices downloaded Tuesday compared to Friday show some stations not changing their prices during that time, though increases of 10 cts/g and 20 cts/g are heavily represented in the data. Helima Croft, the managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said on CNBC Monday that the decline in crude prices that day reflects that 'markets decided that the Strait of Hormuz and other critical export infrastructure is not at risk.' She did note that there have been energy infrastructure targets hit in both countries, including Israel's Haifa refinery. At a capacity of 197,000 b/d, Haifa is Israel's largest refinery but a capacity at that level is not particularly big by international standards. But a Reuters report Tuesday was more dire, saying that Iranian oil exports have been severely affected by the ongoing military action. 'Iran's oil exports appear to have essentially ground to a halt in recent days,' the Reuters report said. 'Total Iranian crude and condensate oil exports this week are currently forecast to reach 102,000 bpd, compared with a weekly average of 1.7 million so far this year, according to analytics firm Kpler.'The report also said exports from Kharg Island, which normally handle about 90% of Iran's oil exports, 'appear to have completely halted since Friday.' It cited tanker tracking data as the source for that conclusion. Even as oil prices were climbing anew on Tuesday, the monthly report of the International Energy Agency once again reduced its estimate on global oil growth in 2025. The IEA's estimate, released Tuesday, now is that global oil demand will rise by 720,000 b/d in 2025. A month ago, that estimate was 740,000 b/d. Outside of the pandemic, global oil demand growth for years has been checking in at more than 1 million b/d, and sometimes hitting 2 million b/d. The IEA also isn't suggesting that 2025 is an outlier. It held its estimate for 2026 growth at 740,000 b/d. The IEA does not forecast total future supply, given that OPEC would be expected to adjust its output depending on market conditions. But it did say that May global supply was 104.96 million b/d, and that full-year demand in 2025 was expected to be 103.76 million b/d, an imbalance favoring buyers who are suddenly watching prices climb. More articles by John Kingston Onstage in Chicago, CHRW talks tech and staffing; RXO sees language order hitting capacity Logistics GDP share rose in '24, not likely to drop: CSCMP report California's suit on Congressional ZEV-related denial says federal action overreached The post Benchmark diesel price makes its biggest upward move since January appeared first on FreightWaves. Sign in to access your portfolio
Miami Herald
4 days ago
- Business
- Miami Herald
Oil prices drop, but Iran-Israel conflict raises many risks
The intense rounds of air attacks between Israel and Iran have analysts and traders poring over scenarios for the direction of energy markets. A wide range of outcomes are possible, with prices in the most extreme cases soaring above $120 a barrel, analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in a note, but also drifting down to $50 a barrel next year. The initial round of Israeli attacks sent oil prices 7% higher Friday. Still, at about $74 a barrel, Brent crude remains below the $80 average for 2024, the Deutsche Bank analysts wrote. The market continued to waver, though, and by Monday, oil prices had fallen about 3%. Such relatively modest levels may seem surprising with fighting raging in a region that produces about 25 million barrels a day, according to Rystad Energy, a consulting firm. The conflict is also flaring up at a crucial time for oil markets with the start of the summer driving season, when demand rises. An initial bump in oil prices, followed by a fall. Despite increasing risks, traders appear to be skeptical about the possibility of disruption. They are assuming that if international mediation manages to halt the fighting, prices could fall sharply. 'As long as supply has not been disrupted, I don't think we are going to see huge jumps in oil prices, because the geopolitical risk premium is already factored in,' said Bachar El-Halabi, senior energy markets analyst at Argus Media, a commodities research firm. A nightmare scenario that could double oil prices. On the other hand, some analysts think the market is being complacent. 'We see the risk of a serious supply outage increasing significantly in an extended war scenario,' Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at investment bank RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients. The most worrisome scenario would be if Iran's leaders close down the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passageway that leads from the Persian Gulf and, eventually, to the Indian Ocean. About one-third of the volume of crude oil exported by sea as well as 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas, another vital commodity, flow through this cliff-lined channel bordered on the north by Iran, according to Rystad. Deutsche Bank analysts think that if Iran were to block the strait for two months, prices could soar to $124 a barrel. But an effort to halt shipping is likely to bring a response from the United States, which has ships from the 5th Fleet based in Bahrain on the Persian Gulf, and other countries. And closing the strait would harm Iran, which exports most of its oil from terminals on Kharg Island in the gulf. Prolonged fighting could push oil to $90 a barrel. Deutsche Bank figures that based on current prices, the market is now assuming the loss of some of Iran's exports, which recently have been about 1.5 million barrels a day. Most of this oil goes to China, but the small refineries there, which are Iran's main customers, would need to find other sources of oil if these flows stopped. Analysts may be focusing too much on the potential for closure of the strait, said Croft, who added that it would be 'exceedingly difficult' to pull off for an extended period. Instead, the Iranian navy could scare tanker owners by harassing cargo ships, which could disrupt shipping. Iran could also encourage militia proxies in neighboring Iraq to threaten Baghdad's oil infrastructure, which exports more than 3 million barrels a day. The cost of hiring tankers to carry oil from the region has jumped, according to Kpler, a firm that tracks shipping. But Kpler analysts said Monday that, so far, the flow of oil from the region was 'as normal.' If the fighting is prolonged, analysts including Croft said that Israel might hit Iran's energy export installations to curb Tehran's ability to finance its nuclear program. In that case, analysts said, OPEC members including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would increase output, but perhaps not by enough to fully offset the loss of Iranian crude. Analysts at Goldman Sachs modeled one scenario in which Brent crude jumps to $90 a barrel after the loss of Iranian production but falls back toward $60 a barrel in 2026 as supply recovers. This article originally appeared in The New York Times. Copyright 2025
CNBC
4 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Energy infrastructure attacks could happen in prolonged Iran-Israel conflict: RBC's Helima Croft
Helima Croft, RBC managing director, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the takeaways of oil's price levels, current market signals and much more.
Bloomberg
5 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Oil ‘In the Crosshairs' as Mideast Crisis Escalates, RBC Warns
Oil supplies from the Middle East face increasing risk as the conflict between Israel and Iran drags on, according to RBC Capital Markets LLC, which warned that energy is now 'clearly in the crosshairs.' 'The fact that both sides targeted energy infrastructure on the second day of fighting represents a clear cause for concern,' analysts including Helima Croft said in a note, citing attacks that included gas facilities. Among possible scenarios, Israel may opt to strike Tehran's Kharg Island hub to curb crude flows, while Iranian proxies may hit facilities in Iraq, they said.
