Latest news with #GordonGrowthModel
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology AG (ETR:PFV)
Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology's estimated fair value is €137 based on Dividend Discount Model With €162 share price, Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value The average discount for Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology's competitorsis currently 25% In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology AG (ETR:PFV) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. As Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology operates in the machinery sector, we need to calculate the intrinsic value slightly differently. Instead of using free cash flows, which are hard to estimate and often not reported by analysts in this industry, dividends per share (DPS) payments are used. This often underestimates the value of a stock, but it can still be good as a comparison to competitors. We use the Gordon Growth Model, which assumes dividend will grow into perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a company's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.3%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.6%. Compared to the current share price of €162, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate) = €7.3 / (6.6% – 1.3%) = €137 We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.232. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. See our latest analysis for Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology Strength Debt is not viewed as a risk. Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Current share price is above our estimate of fair value. Opportunity PFV's financial characteristics indicate limited near-term opportunities for shareholders. Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine PFV's earnings prospects. Threat Dividends are not covered by earnings. Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology, there are three essential elements you should further research: Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the XTRA every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Nordwest Handel AG (FRA:NWX)
The projected fair value for Nordwest Handel is €18.16 based on Dividend Discount Model With €20.60 share price, Nordwest Handel appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value The average discount for Nordwest Handel's competitorsis currently 52% How far off is Nordwest Handel AG (FRA:NWX) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow. Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. We have to calculate the value of Nordwest Handel slightly differently to other stocks because it is a trade distributors company. Instead of using free cash flows, which are hard to estimate and often not reported by analysts in this industry, dividends per share (DPS) payments are used. Unless a company pays out the majority of its FCF as a dividend, this method will typically underestimate the value of the stock. The 'Gordon Growth Model' is used, which simply assumes that dividend payments will continue to increase at a sustainable growth rate forever. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a company's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.3%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.8%. Relative to the current share price of €20.6, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate) = €1.0 / (6.8% – 1.3%) = €18.2 Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Nordwest Handel as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.271. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. View our latest analysis for Nordwest Handel Strength Currently debt free. Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Current share price is above our estimate of fair value. Opportunity NWX's financial characteristics indicate limited near-term opportunities for shareholders. Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine NWX's earnings prospects. Threat Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows. Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Nordwest Handel, we've compiled three further items you should look at: Risks: For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Nordwest Handel that you should be aware of. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every German stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
The Star
2 days ago
- Automotive
- The Star
Softer Mazda sales weigh on Bermaz Auto
PETALING JAYA: The softening of Mazda sales amid stiff competition from the influx of Chinese marques is likely to weigh on the earnings of Bermaz Auto Bhd (BAuto) for its financial year 2026 ending April 30 (FY26). In a report, CGSI International Research (CGSI Research) said the aggressive expansion of Chinese automotive brands in Malaysia with their competitive pricing and technologically advanced models could erode Mazda's market share, further pressuring BAuto's margins 'Additionally, if macroeconomic conditions weaken, leading to reduced consumer purchasing power, spending on vehicles could decline. This would negatively affect BAuto's sales volume across all its brands and reduce earnings visibility,' the research house noted. For its fourth quarter ended April 30, 2025, the car distributor's core net profit fell 6% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 20% quarter-on-quarter to RM21.5mil due to weaker contributions from its associates. 'FY25 core net profit slumped 55% y-o-y to RM159mil, which is below 85% of our full-year estimate and 95% of Bloomberg consensus,' CGSI Research said. CGSI Research said it is downgrading BAuto's call from 'add' to 'hold' with a lower price-to-earnings-based target price of 84 sen. It also said it cut its forecast FY26 and FY27 earnings per share by 33% and 20%, respectively, to factor in the lower Mazda sales, lower earnings before interests and taxes due to the competitive environment as well as weaker earnings from the sales of spare parts. 'We revise our valuation methodology from the Gordon Growth Model to a price-to-earnings-based approach to better reflect evolving sector dynamics and investor preferences. 'Given structural shifts in the automotive industry, including margin pressure and changing consumer preference, we believe that a price-earnings framework offers a more relevant benchmark,' the research house said. However, on a brighter note, CGSI Research said it expects the lower forecasts for BAuto's earnings to be partially cushioned by its launch lineup, which includes the Mazda CX-60, CX-80, and three Deepal electric vehicles in the third quarter of this year, alongside its XPeng's G6 and X9 models that might provide a higher margin. 'We think there is potential for XPeng's contributions to grow considering that it only formed 13% of BAuto's Malaysia sales volume in over the last year,' it said. CGSI Research noted that BAuto's net cash position was RM244.7mil as of Apr 30. The research house added that there were both positives and negatives for the car distributor. It said upside included the easing of competition in the automotive sector and improving Mazda sales in Malaysia, while downside risks consisted of greater competition from Chinese brands in Malaysia, and a decline in consumer spending power. BAuto closed at 78 sen in yesterday's trading, giving it a market capitalisation of RM902.96mil.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Estimating The Fair Value Of Klingelnberg AG (VTX:KLIN)
The projected fair value for Klingelnberg is CHF15.93 based on Dividend Discount Model With CHF12.95 share price, Klingelnberg appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value Klingelnberg's peers seem to be trading at a lower discount to fair value based onthe industry average of 7.3% Does the June share price for Klingelnberg AG (VTX:KLIN) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free. As Klingelnberg operates in the machinery sector, we need to calculate the intrinsic value slightly differently. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. This often underestimates the value of a stock, but it can still be good as a comparison to competitors. We use the Gordon Growth Model, which assumes dividend will grow into perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. The dividend is expected to grow at an annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.4%. We then discount this figure to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.7%. Relative to the current share price of CHF13.0, the company appears about fair value at a 19% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate) = €0.9 / (5.7% – 0.4%) = CHF15.9 We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Klingelnberg as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.228. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. Check out our latest analysis for Klingelnberg Strength Debt is well covered by earnings. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Machinery market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Swiss market. Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value. Threat Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows. Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Klingelnberg, we've compiled three pertinent items you should further research: Risks: Take risks, for example - Klingelnberg has 5 warning signs we think you should be aware of. Future Earnings: How does KLIN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Swiss stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Yahoo
14-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Varia US Properties AG (VTX:VARN)
Using the Dividend Discount Model, Varia US Properties fair value estimate is CHF23.10 Current share price of CHF19.05 suggests Varia US Properties is potentially trading close to its fair value Varia US Properties' peers are currently trading at a premium of 219% on average Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Varia US Properties AG (VTX:VARN) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example! We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free. We have to calculate the value of Varia US Properties slightly differently to other stocks because it is a real estate company. Instead of using free cash flows, which are hard to estimate and often not reported by analysts in this industry, dividends per share (DPS) payments are used. This often underestimates the value of a stock, but it can still be good as a comparison to competitors. We use the Gordon Growth Model, which assumes dividend will grow into perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a company's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.4%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.1%. Relative to the current share price of CHF19.1, the company appears about fair value at a 18% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate) = US$1.6 / (6.1% – 0.4%) = CHF23.1 The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Varia US Properties as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.313. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. View our latest analysis for Varia US Properties Strength No major strengths identified for VARN. Weakness Interest payments on debt are not well covered. Opportunity Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows. Good value based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value. Threat Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Varia US Properties, there are three additional items you should further research: Risks: For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Varia US Properties (2 are a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of. Future Earnings: How does VARN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SWX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
