Latest news with #GillianKay
Time of India
a day ago
- Climate
- Time of India
UK risks more extreme, prolonged heatwaves in future: Study
This is an AI-generated image, used for representational purposes only. LONDON: The UK could experience more frequent extreme and prolonged heat due to climate change , its meteorological office said Wednesday, as the country braced for its first heatwave of the year. Met Office scientists said the island nation will see the "increased likelihood of extreme temperatures " over 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit). The new study also "highlights how UK heatwaves could become longer and hotter due to escalating climate trends", the Met Office added. According to the research, in the current climate, heatwaves in the UK could persist for "a month or more". The UK, which is known for its frequent showers and mild summers, recorded its first temperature above 40 degrees in 2022. "The chance of exceeding 40 degrees C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s," said Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the Met Office. "Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising," said Kay, adding there was a 50-per cent chance of seeing a 40-degree day in the next 12 years. Scientists warn that the intensity and frequency of global extreme weather events will increase as the planet continues to heat up because of fossil fuel emissions . On Monday, the Met Office said a heatwave was "likely" in much of the UK this week, with the highest temperatures expected to exceed 30 degrees. "These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now," said co-author Nick Dunstone. UK this year experienced its warmest spring on record. It also had the driest spring in over 50 years, with farmers facing damaged crop growth and the government warning about "exceptionally low" water reservoir levels. In May, the Environment Agency's deputy water director, Richard Thompson, warned that "changing climate means we will see more summer droughts in the coming decades".
Daily Mirror
a day ago
- Climate
- Daily Mirror
Exact date 13 regions could see 38C as heatwave maps turn deep red
New maps show exactly when temperatures in 13 areas could rise as high as 38C this month following a Met Office warning over scorching heatwaves similar to the summer of 2022 As many as 13 counties could see temperatures rise to a sweltering 38C this month as heatwave season appears to be well underway in the UK. The Met Office has already said the mercury could hit 33C across southern regions this coming weekend, but now advanced weather maps suggest it will go even higher before the end of June. The GFS weather model shows temperatures could reach 30C or above across almost all of England on June 29, with 33C coming in the north-west, Midlands and along the south coast. Temperatures in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are expected to rise into the mid-20Cs. The following day, June 30, could be a record breaker as 13 counties across central, eastern and southern England could see 38C temperatures, according to the GFS model. This would smash the previous record temperature for June, which is 35.6C from Southampton in 1976. The counties are: Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire, Rutland, Northamptonshire, Oxfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Middlesex, Kent, and Sussex. Weather maps suggest July will start the same way June ends, with temperatures possibly rising over 30C in the north-west, East Anglia and the Midlands on July 1. These temperatures would constitute an official heatwave, declared when regions surpass the heatwave threshold for three consecutive days. That threshold varies from 25C to 28C across the UK. This comes after the Met Office warned there was a 50% chance of the UK seeing a repeat of the infamous 2022 heatwave - during which temperatures topped 40C for the first time ever - within the next 12 years. The meteorological experts also warned that far higher temperatures of 45C or more 'may be possible' in today's climate, while heatwaves could go on for a month or more. Temperatures peaked at 40.3C in Coningsby in Lincolnshire on July 19 2022, outstripping the previous top temperature of 38.7C in Cambridge, set just three years earlier, by 1.6C. Major incidents were announced by fire brigades in London, Leicestershire and South Yorkshire as dozens of fires broke out and ripped through houses, schools, churches and farmland, while there was widespread disruption to transport and power systems. More than 1,000 excess deaths among older people were recorded around the four-day peak of the heatwave, with more than 3,000 heat-related deaths in England over summer 2022. Analysis by the Met Office, using global models to create a large number of climate outcomes in current conditions, shows the risk of 40C temperatures in the UK has been rapidly increasing. Dr Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the Met Office, and lead author of the study, said: 'The chance of exceeding 40C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s. 'Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising. We estimate a 50:50 chance of seeing a 40C day again in the next 12 years. We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today's climate.' Met Office weather outlook Thursday: Rain across Scotland will steadily clear northwards. Elsewhere dry with sunny spells, but the odd shower in the far southwest later. Breezier, especially in the southwest, but still very warm. Outlook for Friday to Sunday: Mostly dry and settled weather with very warm or hot sunshine. Humid in the north and west with scattered thundery showers possible. Turning fresher for many by Sunday.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
UK risks more extreme, prolonged heatwaves in future: study
The UK could experience more frequent extreme and prolonged heat due to climate change, its meteorological office said Wednesday, as the country braced for its first heatwave of the year. Met Office scientists said the island nation will see the "increased likelihood of extreme temperatures" over 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit). The new study also "highlights how UK heatwaves could become longer and hotter due to escalating climate trends", the Met Office added. According to the research, in the current climate, heatwaves in the UK could persist for "a month or more". The UK, which is known for its frequent showers and mild summers, recorded its first temperature above 40 degrees in 2022. "The chance of exceeding 40 degrees C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s," said Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the Met Office. "Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising," said Kay, adding there was a 50-percent chance of seeing a 40-degree day in the next 12 years. Scientists warn the intensity and frequency of global extreme weather events will increase as the planet continues to heat up because of fossil fuel emissions. On Monday, the Met office said a heatwave was "likely" in much of the UK this week, with the highest temperatures expected to exceed 30 degrees. "These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now," said co-author Nick Dunstone. The UK this year experienced its warmest spring on record. It also had the driest spring in over 50 years, with farmers facing damaged crop growth and the government warning about "exceptionally low" water reservoir levels. In May, the Environment Agency's deputy water director Richard Thompson warned that "changing climate means we will see more summer droughts in the coming decades". aks/jkb/jhb
France 24
2 days ago
- Climate
- France 24
UK risks more extreme, prolonged heatwaves in future: study
Met Office scientists said the island nation will see the "increased likelihood of extreme temperatures" over 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit). The new study also "highlights how UK heatwaves could become longer and hotter due to escalating climate trends", the Met Office added. According to the research, in the current climate, heatwaves in the UK could persist for "a month or more". The UK, which is known for its frequent showers and mild summers, recorded its first temperature above 40 degrees in 2022. "The chance of exceeding 40 degrees C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s," said Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the Met Office. "Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising," said Kay, adding there was a 50-percent chance of seeing a 40-degree day in the next 12 years. Scientists warn the intensity and frequency of global extreme weather events will increase as the planet continues to heat up because of fossil fuel emissions. On Monday, the Met office said a heatwave was "likely" in much of the UK this week, with the highest temperatures expected to exceed 30 degrees. "These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now," said co-author Nick Dunstone. The UK this year experienced its warmest spring on record. It also had the driest spring in over 50 years, with farmers facing damaged crop growth and the government warning about "exceptionally low" water reservoir levels. In May, the Environment Agency's deputy water director Richard Thompson warned that "changing climate means we will see more summer droughts in the coming decades".
Wales Online
2 days ago
- Climate
- Wales Online
Five-week long heatwaves and 46.6C highs as Met Office predicts scorching decade
Our community members are treated to special offers, promotions and adverts from us and our partners. You can check out at any time. More info Heatwaves lasting as long as 39 days are being forecasted for parts of the UK in the coming years. Temperatures soaring above 40C will become more likely, with a possible maximum of 46.6C, as climate change tightens its grip, the Met Office has warned. Its scientists have warned that, in future, two thirds of British summers could be assessed as being in a heatwave, using current classifications. Spells of hot weather in which temperatures exceed 40C could run for four successive days. Analysis by the Met Office, using global models to create a large number of climate outcomes based on the weather in 2023, shows the risk of 40C temperatures in the UK has been rapidly increasing. A study published in Weather Journal shows the chance of temperatures hitting 40C is more than 20 times greater than it was in the 1960s. 'From less than 0.2% in the 1960s, it has increased more than six-fold since the 1980s and almost trebled since 2000,' said researchers. 'With ongoing climate change, it is likely to continue increasing in upcoming years, meaning that the return time for 40°C is expected to shorten further.' Previous estimates of the pace of change are now thought to have been underestimated, they added. Temperatures hit 40C in the UK for the first time on record amid the hot summer of 2022, peaking at 40.3C in Coningsby in Lincolnshire on July 19. It outstripped the previous top temperature of 38.7°C in Cambridge, set just three years earlier, leaving meterologists surprised by the wide margin of escalation. Not so long ago, a low probability of reaching 40C was estimated for the 2020s, with a return time of 100–300 years. Now – based on current conditions – such temperatures are expected to occur once every 24 years. This rate is expected to rise as the climate warms. Join the North Wales Live Whatsapp community now (Image: Met Office) The 'unprecedented' temperatures seen in the UK in 2022 formed part of Europe's warmest summer on record. There were significant impacts, including wildfires, disruptions to transport and power systems and increased mortality. More than 1,000 excess deaths among older people were recorded around the heatwave's four-day peak, with more than 3,000 heat-related deaths in England over summer 2022. The study's lead author Dr Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the Met Office, said awareness of the warming trend will help preparedness in the health and in other sectors – not just in the decades to come but 'now and in the near term'. She said: 'The chance of exceeding 40C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s. Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising. "We estimate a 50-50 chance of seeing a 40C day again in the next 12 years. We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today's climate.' (Image: Met Office) The summer of 1976 saw 18 days exceed the temperature threshold that defines a heatwave. Based on current projections, future heatwaves are forecasted to last more than a month (39 days). The Met Office study, 'Rapidly increasing chance of record UK summer temperatures', drew its conclusions from data in south east England, where the heatwave threshold is 28C on three successive days. In Wales, the threshold temperature is lower, at 25C, suggesting that longer spells of above-average temperatures can be expected here too. The same model runs also indicated that 63 days each summer (in southeast England) will reach at least 28C, with temperatures hitting 35C on 20 days – four times the current rate. Sign up for the North Wales Live newsletter sent twice daily to your inbox Study co-author Dr Nick Dunstone, a Met Office Science Fellow, said: 'The well-known hot summer of 1976 had more than a fortnight above 28C, which is a key heatwave threshold in southeast England. 'Our study finds that in today's climate such conditions could persist for a month or more. These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat.' Find the weather forecast where you live
