Latest news with #GazaWar
Al Jazeera
a day ago
- Business
- Al Jazeera
Can the Israeli and Iranian economies survive a war?
As Israel and Iran carry out strikes against each other for a seventh straight day, the region is anxiously bracing for a potentially wider conflict. But question marks remain over the two sides' ability to finance a sustained war effort. On Friday, Israel killed several of Iran's top military commanders and nuclear scientists and damaged some of its nuclear sites. It has since damaged parts of Iran's fossil fuel sector. In response, Iran has launched missile attacks at government buildings and metropolitan areas in Israel. As of Thursday, the Israeli attacks have killed 240 people while Iranian strikes have killed at least 24 people. But the conflict is also costing both nations billions of dollars and could choke their economic growth and trigger concerns over long-term fiscal planning. Israel's prolonged military operations in Gaza since October 2023 and the recent escalation with Iran have plunged the country into the most expensive period of conflict in its history. According to a January report by the Israeli business newspaper Calcalist, the cumulative cost of the Gaza war alone had reached 250 billion shekels ($67.5bn) by the end of 2024. A June 15 report by the Israeli news outlet Ynet News, quoting a former financial adviser to the Israeli military's chief of staff, estimated that the first two days of fighting with Iran alone cost Israel 5.5 billion shekels (roughly $1.45bn). At that rate, a prolonged conflict with Iran could see Israel surpass the end-2024 Gaza war expenses within seven weeks. Even before the current escalation with Iran, Israel had dramatically increased its defence budget amid its multiple regional conflicts and the war on Gaza. From 60 billion shekels ($17bn) in 2023, it grew to 99 billion ($28bn) in 2024. Projections for 2025 suggest it could reach 118 billion shekels ($34bn). The Ministry of Finance set a deficit ceiling of 4.9 percent of Israel's gross domestic product (GDP) for this fiscal year, equating to 105 billion shekels ($27.6bn). Higher military spending would put that to the test. Despite a recent increase in projected tax revenues – from 517 billion to 539 billion shekels ($148bn to $154bn) – Israel's 2025 growth forecast has been revised down from 4.3 to 3.6 percent. According to the business survey company CofaceBDI, roughly 60,000 Israeli companies closed in 2024 due to manpower shortages, logistics disruptions and subdued business sentiment. In addition, tourist arrivals continue to fall short of pre-October 2023 levels. Those trends could be aggravated in the event of a full-fledged war with Iran. S&P Global Ratings issued a stark warning about the vulnerability of the Israeli economy on Tuesday. The agency stated that a continued Israeli war campaign, particularly if met with a sustained and strategic Iranian response, could lead to a downgrade of Israel's credit rating from A to A-. Were that to happen, it would likely raise borrowing costs and soften investor confidence in the Israeli economy. In recent days, Iran's oil exports appear to have fallen dramatically. Total Iranian crude and condensate oil exports are forecast to reach 102,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending on Sunday. That's less than half the 242,000 bpd it was averaging in exports this year, according to data from the analytics firm Kpler. Critically, exports from Kharg Island, from which Iran exports more than 90 percent of its oil, appear to have completely halted since Friday. No tankers were anchored at Kharg Island on Monday, according to LSEG satellite ship tracking data. In 2025, Iran has produced an average of 3.4 million bpd of crude, according to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), with China appearing to be the main foreign buyer. Most of the oil Iran produces is for domestic consumption. On Saturday, Iran partially suspended gas production at the South Pars gasfield in the Gulf after it was hit by Israeli missiles. South Pars, which Iran shares with Qatar, is the world's biggest gasfield. It produces about 80 percent of Iran's total gas output. For now, the extent of the damage to the South Pars field is unknown. In addition, Israel has targeted the Shahr Rey refinery outside Tehran as well as fuel depots around the capital. The full impact of these strikes on production is unknown. Iran has faced economic sanctions from the US after the Islamic Revolution and the US embassy hostage crisis in 1979 and then over its nuclear programme. In a bid to pressure Tehran to agree to a deal on its nuclear programme, the administration of then-US President Barack Obama coaxed multiple major economies around the world to cut down or stop their oil purchases from Iran, using a wave of additional sanctions. Those sanctions were relaxed after Iran struck the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal in 2015 with the US, Russia, China, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the European Union. The following year, Iran exported 2.8 million bpd of petroleum products. But US President Donald Trump reimposed the sanctions in 2018 during his first term as president and added more, again pressuring most other nations to stop buying Iranian crude. The result, according to the EIA, was that Tehran generated only $50bn in oil export revenue in 2022 and 2023, which amounts to roughly 200,000 bpd of crude exports, less than 10 percent of 2016 levels. The upshot is that sanctions have gutted Iran's foreign exchange earnings. Iran has staved off economic collapse in part thanks to China, the main buyer of its oil and one of the few nations still trading with Tehran. Still, the loss of revenue because of the sanctions has deprived the country of long-term economic development and has hit Tehran's ability to fix dilapidated infrastructure. President Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly highlighted the severity of the economic situation facing the country, stating that Tehran's situation is more challenging than during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. In March, he openly criticised the latest round of US sanctions targeting tankers carrying Iranian oil. Iran also faces a string of other constraints – energy and water shortages, a collapsing currency and military setbacks among its regional allies – all amplified by the sanctions. A lack of investment, declining natural gas production and inefficient irrigation are all leading to power blackouts and water shortages. Meanwhile, the rial, Iran's currency, has shed more than 90 percent of its value against the dollar since the sanctions were reimposed in 2018, according to foreign exchange websites. And while the official inflation rate hovers around 40 percent, some Iranian experts said it is actually running at more than 50 percent. 'Precise numbers are hard to come by,' said Hamzeh Al Gaaod, an economic analyst at TS Lombard, a political research firm. 'But what we can say is that years of sanctions have triggered inflationary pressure, including through devaluations of the rial. In turn, that makes goods imports from abroad more expensive,' Al Gaaod told Al Jazeera. In January, the Tasnim news agency quoted the head of Iran's Institute of Labor and Social Welfare, Ebrahim Sadeghifar, as saying 22 to 27 percent of Iranians were now below the poverty line. Unemployment is running at 9.2 percent. However, Iran's Supreme Assembly of Workers' Representatives, which represents labour interests, estimated the true figure of people without access to subsistence-level work is far higher. According to Al Gaaod, Tehran has a 'relatively small budget for military purposes'. He estimated that anywhere from 3 to 5 percent of Iran's GDP is spent on defence, which amounts to roughly $12bn. Tehran does have $33bn in foreign exchange reserves it could theoretically draw on. But Al Gaaod said: 'This is where Iran is on the backfoot. To use reserves for short-term military conflict would cripple them over the longer term.' 'We've seen a 'rally under the flag' sentiment in recent days. But if Iran experiences more strikes and civilian evacuations, that could easily unwind,' he said.
The National
a day ago
- Politics
- The National
'Iran can defend itself': Will Tehran's proxies join fight against Israel?
As the conflict between Israel and Iran dramatically escalates, with the US considering whether to intervene to back its long-time ally, a pressing question has emerged: will Tehran's proxies rush to the rescue of their patron? Hostilities between Iran and Israel have reached unprecedented levels, entering a seventh day of confrontation, after Israel launched attacks last Friday on Iran claiming to prevent the country from acquiring a nuclear weapon. The strikes prompted a series of retaliatory missile barrages from Iran. Sources in Iran's proxy groups have shared differing views on whether they will join the fight with Iran. A Hezbollah source says it will remain on the sidelines, regardless of whether the US intervenes, while Yemen's Houthi rebels are the only proxy to have announced attacks against Israel in support of Iran. The proxy groups, however, have stressed their autonomy from Tehran. The so-called Axis of Resistance is an Iran-led network that includes Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and armed groups in Iraq, whose aim is to deter Israel from conducting military action and countering its influence in the region. Many of these groups have fought against Iran's enemies in their respective countries. The groups launched attacks against Israel as part of a support campaign for Hamas and the Palestinian people after the Gaza war broke out on October 7, 2023. But months of fighting with Israel, which holds clear military dominance, has considerably eroded the operational capacity of the axis. Hezbollah, once a formidable militia and Iran's most powerful proxy, was battered by nearly 14 months of conflict with Israel that ended in November, leaving much of its chain of command dismantled and its arsenal decimated. The group has made it clear that it does not intend to take part in any retaliatory action to support Iran. Lebanese MP Hassan Fadlallah described Iran as a 'key regional power' that is capable of defending itself, in an interview with pro-Hezbollah outlet Al Mayadeen. 'It does not ask others to fight on its behalf,' he said. The group is under pressure to disarm and faces growing discontent from those in Lebanon who accuse it of dragging the cash-strapped country into a war it could not afford, and causing damage worth several billion dollars. Once a kingmaker, Hezbollah is now grappling with a loss of influence within the Lebanese political scene. A Lebanese official told The National that the army sent a message to Hezbollah, urging it not to intervene in the Iran-Israel conflict and warning against dragging the country into yet another devastating war. 'They said they wouldn't,' the official said. 'We're doing everything we can, calls, meetings, to prevent any escalation,' the official added. 'This is not our war." Some fear a potential US intervention against Iran might compel Hezbollah to join the fight. Statements attributed to an Iranian official suggested that, if the US became directly involved – an idea President Donald Trump has been publicly floating for days – Hezbollah would join forces with Tehran. A Hezbollah source firmly denied the claim. 'I don't think the statement is true … who is this source? Iran can defend itself,' the source told The National. 'This is a Hezbollah decision, not an Iranian decision and unfortunately the media fabricates fake news." Cautious but ready In Iraq, which is home to several Tehran-backed militias that, unlike Hezbollah, remain largely intact, a senior militant leader told The National that the decision to open a front would depend 'on developments". 'The current situation calls for caution and wisdom, but also readiness to respond if Iran comes under full-scale attack,' he said. The militant said US intervention could be a game-changer in how the groups perceive their role in the conflict. 'We advise the United States not to get involved in the war – it has tried before and ended in failure," he said. "Any American aggression against Iran will directly affect Iraq, and Iraqis have the right to defend their sovereignty, religious beliefs and dignity." He warned that any attempt at regime change in Iran – which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shown increasing interest in, beyond merely destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities – would lead to regional chaos. 'Iraq lies between two blazing arenas, and the resistance factions will not stand idly by," he added. Yemen's Houthis are the only proxy group to have announced joint military co-operation with Tehran since the recent escalation. The Houthis have launched attacks against Israel and ships in the Red Sea in support of Palestinians in Gaza since October 2023. On Sunday, the group said it fired ballistic missiles at Israel in support of 'the oppressed Palestinian and Iranian peoples". A Yemeni source in the capital Sanaa said there was 'no joint operations room between the Iranians and the Houthis", but rather continued co-ordination. 'When Houthis are required to strike, they carry out the strike independently," the source added. "This is what we've observed in the nature of their operations. This is also what Sanaa and Iranian officials have affirmed since the beginning of the operations, that Yemen acts on its own, deciding when it is in its interest to escalate, de-escalate, or strike a particular area."
New York Times
a day ago
- Politics
- New York Times
Mamdani's Comment on ‘Intifada' Motto Fuels Tension in Mayor's Race
Simmering Democratic disagreements over the war in Gaza burst to the forefront of New York's mayoral primary this week, rattling the final days of an already chaotic contest. Former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, the race's front-runner, and Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, his chief rival, have long differed over U.S. support for the war. But as voting approaches, they have traded increasingly pointed accusations that touch on antisemitism and Islamophobia. The tension escalated on Tuesday, after Mr. Mamdani, a critic of Israel, was asked during a podcast interview if the phrase 'globalize the intifada' made him uncomfortable, and he declined to condemn it. Palestinians and their supporters have called the phrase a rallying cry for liberation, but many Jews consider it a call to violence invoking resistance movements of the 1980s and 2000s. In the interview with The Bulwark, Mr. Mamdani said he believed the phrase spoke to 'a desperate desire for equality and equal rights in standing up for Palestinian human rights.' He said the U.S. Holocaust Museum used a similar Arabic term for 'uprising' to describe the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising against the Nazis, and stressed his own commitment to nonviolence and fighting antisemitism. The blowback was swift. By Wednesday morning, the Anti-Defamation League; Representative Daniel Goldman, a New York Democrat; and other Jewish leaders had condemned the phrase, and some tied it to recent spasms of anti-Jewish violence in Washington and Colorado. The Washington-based Holocaust Museum weighed in, too, calling Mr. Mamdani's remarks 'outrageous and especially offensive.' Mr. Cuomo, who is seeking to blunt Mr. Mamdani's rise in the polls, immediately began fanning the sense of outrage, saying his rival defended words that 'fuel hate' and murder. Mr. Mamdani, who would be the city's first Muslim mayor, pushed back, calling the former governor's response insincere and designed to score 'political points.' Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
Sky News
2 days ago
- Politics
- Sky News
Israel's block on international journalists in Gaza should not be allowed to stand
On Sky News this week we're showing a film about Israel's war in Gaza which has now been going on for more than 620 days. It is a chastening watch. Swathes of Gaza's medical infrastructure have been razed, many of the territory's buildings have been destroyed, and tens of thousands of Gazans have been killed, maimed and left hungry and malnourished in a war fought mainly from the air with heavy ordinance dropped on crowded civilian areas. These extraordinary eyewitness accounts are not brought to our screens by experienced international war correspondents - they are barred from entering Gaza - but by two British medics whose mission was to save lives not to report on the horrors of war. That visiting surgeons Victoria Rose and Tom Potokar felt compelled to do just that, speaks not only to the tragedy unfolding in Gaza, but to the swingeing restrictions imposed on reporting what is happening there. In the history of modern warfare, the presence of journalists on the battlefield has been essential in holding the combatants to account and ensuring that war crimes and atrocities are uncovered and prevented. And Israel stands accused of egregious crimes in Gaza. Since it launched its war there in response to the Hamas terror attacks of October 7th 2023, in which around 1,200 Israelis and other nationals were murdered and a further 250 taken hostage, more than 55,000 Palestinians have been killed according to the Gazan health authorities. Many of the dead have been women and children. Earlier this month, former US State Department official Matt Miller told the Sky News Trump100 podcast that Israel had committed war crimes in Gaza. Ex-UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths went further, telling Sky News presenter Yalda Hakim that Israel is responsible for genocide there. It's an accusation supported by Ireland, Spain, and South Africa which is pursuing Israel for genocide at the International Court of Justice - the UN's highest court. Israel rejects the case against it, claiming that many of the dead are Hamas fighters who have been hiding in tunnels under the hospitals that it has the right to attack in self-defence. Israeli officials and diplomats deny that its military targets women and children and react with outrage to the suggestion that it is responsible for ethnic cleansing or genocide - accusations of crimes against humanity that are taken as particularly loaded given the dark resonance they have for the Jewish people. But Israel's confidence in the integrity of its wartime conduct is not matched by a willingness to allow international journalists into Gaza to witness what is going on there for themselves. Military-organised 'embeds' fall well short of independent journalism For the course of its longest war, no reporters have been permitted entry to Gaza other than on organised and controlled 'embeds' of a few hours alongside Israeli soldiers. These managed opportunities fall well short of independent journalism, for which Sky News and other global news organisations must rely on trusted and heroic local reporting teams who lack the support and infrastructure to provide a complete picture of what is going on. And these Palestinian journalists have paid a heavy price for their work; according to the Committee to Protect Journalists, 185 of them have been killed during the war and 86 imprisoned. The Foreign Press Association, which represents the interests of international journalists operating in Israel, has been petitioning its High Court of Justice to lift the ban on reporting independently from Gaza. So far, that legal action has been unsuccessful and last month the court again postponed a hearing in the case without reason or setting a new date. Israeli officials push back on the need and suitability of allowing journalists to operate independently in Gaza. They say that their military's priority is the rescue of the remaining hostages and the fight against Hamas and that the safety of reporters could not be ensured. But journalists from Sky News and fellow news organisations have operated in Gaza in previous conflicts, providing details of their location and movements to the Israel Defence Forces. 'We accept the risks' Moreover, we have decades of experience of covering conflict zones and our reporters are highly trained at doing so. The risks are real, for sure. But they're risks that we accept. It's what we do. The ongoing denial of access to Gaza feels much less about the safety of journalists and more about preventing proper scrutiny and accountability of the desperate situation there. The barring of international journalists is accompanied by the active delegitimisation of what reporting on the war has been possible which is often shamefully labelled as anti-Semitic and compared to the darkest periods in Jewish history. All together this constitutes a war on truth that is at odds with Israel's proud and oft-repeated claim to be the Middle East's only democracy and it should not be allowed to stand.
Arab News
2 days ago
- Politics
- Arab News
Iran-Israel war diverting attention from Gaza catastrophe
As the world turns its eyes to the explosive confrontation between Iran and Israel, another tragedy continues to unfold — largely amid international silence. Israel's war on Gaza, already one of the most destructive military campaigns in recent history, is now becoming a footnote in the global news cycle. Airstrikes, famine and mass displacement have not ended, they have merely been pushed out of the spotlight. This shift in attention is not merely coincidental — it is politically convenient. The question we must ask is: at what cost? The Iran-Israel conflict, which has drawn in regional actors and sparked fears of a wider war, is undoubtedly significant. It has serious implications for global oil markets, international security and the delicate balance of power in the Middle East. But while diplomats scramble to contain this geopolitical wildfire, a slower, deadlier burn continues in Gaza — one that threatens the lives of millions, especially children, trapped in a war zone with no escape, no food and little hope. Since the start of the Gaza war in October 2023, more than 55,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to local health authorities. Entire neighborhoods have been reduced to rubble, hospitals have been bombed and the Strip's already fragile infrastructure has collapsed under the weight of a sustained siege. The World Food Programme and other agencies have repeatedly warned of an impending famine, exacerbated by Israel's restrictions on humanitarian aid and targeted destruction of civilian resources. And yet, with missiles now flying between Iran and Israel, the human catastrophe in Gaza is being relegated to the margins of global diplomacy. The shift is palpable: once-vocal international condemnation has softened into diplomatic murmurs. UN debates on war crimes and humanitarian aid have slowed, while the coverage from major Western news outlets has thinned dramatically. We are witnessing, in real-time, how one conflict can serve as a smokescreen for another. The shift is palpable: once-vocal international condemnation has softened into diplomatic murmurs Hani Hazaimeh This diversion is not just a matter of journalistic bandwidth — it is a calculated political maneuver. As Israel frames itself once again as a victim under existential threat from a regional rival, it reclaims a position of moral high ground in Western narratives. The Iran confrontation allows Israel to recast its military aggression in Gaza as part of a broader defensive strategy against a hostile axis, linking Hamas, Hezbollah and Tehran under a single 'terror' umbrella. In doing so, it deflects international criticism and stalls momentum for accountability, including mounting allegations of war crimes. Moreover, the Iran-Israel escalation has proven a convenient excuse for Washington and its European allies to delay or downplay tough decisions on Gaza. Calls for a ceasefire, arms embargoes or investigations into violations of international law are being drowned out by appeals for 'regional de-escalation' and the need to prevent 'a wider war.' But for the people of Gaza, the war is already wide enough. Their suffering does not pause simply because the West is worried about oil prices or the Strait of Hormuz. The timing of Israel's intensified military operations in Gaza often appears to coincide with moments of high international distraction. In recent months, several large-scale offensives, particularly in Rafah and northern Gaza, have been launched just as global attention veered toward diplomatic flashpoints involving Iran. Whether this is by design or not, the result is the same: reduced scrutiny, minimal outrage and a delay in any form of international pressure. This diversion also has devastating consequences on the ground. Humanitarian organizations have reported significant delays in aid delivery due to shifting political priorities among donor states. Media outlets that once dispatched special correspondents to Gaza have now redeployed them to Tel Aviv or Beirut. Even social media algorithms, driven by trending topics, have contributed to a sharp decline in visibility for Gaza-related content. The timing of Israel's intensified military operations in Gaza often appears to coincide with moments of high international distraction Hani Hazaimeh But this is not just a failure of media or politics — it is a moral failure. The world cannot afford to normalize genocide simply because something more 'geopolitically urgent' has arisen. The scale of suffering in Gaza demands sustained, focused international attention. It is not a side note. It is not a collateral issue. It is a core crisis that reflects the failure of the international system to uphold the very principles it claims to defend: the protection of civilians, the rule of law and the universal value of human life. To ignore Gaza now is to send a dangerous message — that some lives are more dispensable than others. That justice can be paused. That impunity is acceptable if the perpetrator is powerful enough or the timing is convenient. We must resist this logic. Civil society, journalists and humanitarian advocates must redouble their efforts to keep Gaza in the public consciousness. The same institutions and voices that were courageous enough to speak out months ago must not go silent now. Furthermore, governments must stop using the Iran-Israel war as a diplomatic excuse. They must continue to support investigations into violations of international law in Gaza, push for unimpeded humanitarian access and condition military support on adherence to human rights. The conflict with Iran cannot become a moral fig leaf for the obliteration of Gaza. Political convenience or media attention spans should not constrain the human capacity for empathy and justice. If we truly care about peace, stability and human dignity in the Middle East, then we must care about Gaza — no matter what else is burning. The road to peace in the region cannot be paved over mass graves in Gaza. And until the world reclaims its moral clarity and refuses to be distracted by the convenient theater of geopolitics, the suffering will continue — silently, but no less tragically.
