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Wales Online
9 hours ago
- Climate
- Wales Online
Nearly 600 people expected to die in UK heatwave as temperatures soar across the country
Nearly 600 people expected to die in UK heatwave as temperatures soar across the country Experts at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London used decades of UK data to predict excess mortality during the hot temperatures from Thursday to Sunday. It has been officially named a heatwave (Image: PA Archive/PA Images ) Researchers have projected that the current heatwave sweeping through England and Wales could result in approximately 600 fatalities. Specialists from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and Imperial College London drew on historical UK data to estimate deaths attributable to the scorching heat expected from Thursday to Sunday. Their report, issued on Saturday, suggests nearly 570 individuals could perish due to the extreme temperatures during this period. It is forecasted that Saturday will witness the highest number of heat-related deaths, around 266, coinciding with the anticipated peak of the weather's severity. Particularly hard-hit, London is expected to see as many as 129 extra mortality cases. The scientists stressed that their analysis underlines the escalating danger posed by severe heatwaves to the public health of the nation. This announcement comes on the back of a publication by World Weather Attribution (WWA) on Friday, indicating that climate change has made such heatwaves up to 100 times more probable and increased temperatures by 2-4C. (Image: PA Media ) Article continues below Dr Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, an academic at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, remarked: "Heatwaves are silent killers – people who lose their lives in them typically have pre-existing health conditions and rarely have heat listed as a contributing cause of death." He urged that the real-time assessment aims to expose the often-overlooked consequences of heatwaves and serve as a call to action. Stressing the severity of the situation, he added, "Heatwaves are an underappreciated threat in the UK and they're becoming more dangerous with climate change." Dr Konstantinoudis has issued a stark warning for individuals to heed heat-health advice this weekend and to check on the elderly, especially those who live alone. An amber heat-health alert has been activated across England by the UK Health Security Agency, cautioning vulnerable groups about health dangers, including "a rise in deaths". Meanwhile, parts of Wales officially hit a heatwave on Friday. You can read more about that here. Royal Ascot saw numerous attendees needing medical attention for heat-related ailments on Thursday. Utilising data from published studies on the link between heat exposure and daily mortality rates in 34,753 English and Welsh regions, researchers have made some concerning predictions. By integrating these findings with detailed weather projections from the Copernicus climate change service, they've calculated potential heat-related fatalities. Their estimates suggest that there could have been 114 excess deaths on Thursday, 152 on Friday, 266 on Saturday, and 37 on Sunday as temperatures are expected to drop to the mid-20s. (Image: PA Wire/PA Images ) It is anticipated that individuals over 65 will be most affected, with 488 of the projected excess deaths impacting this age group, according to the report. However, the experts also caution that heat poses a risk to life across all age groups, with an estimated 82 deaths among those under 65. Furthermore, the analysis does not consider the impact of the heatwave striking early in the summer before people have become accustomed to the heat, which could mean the actual death toll may be higher than predicted. A recent report from the UK Climate Change Committee has projected that heat-related fatalities could surpass 10,000 annually by 2050 if global warming reaches 2C due to continued fossil fuel consumption. This week, UN experts have sounded the alarm, stating that the world is at a critical juncture to curb warming and has only three years to prevent average global temperatures from rising above 1.5C. Professor Antonio Gasparrini from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) commented on the severity of the situation: "Increases of just a degree or two can be the difference between life and death." He further highlighted the impact on health services: "Every fraction of a degree of warming will cause more hospital admissions and heat deaths, putting more strain on the NHS." Dr Malcolm Mistry, also from LSHTM, emphasised the risks associated with seemingly moderate temperatures: "Exposure to temperatures in the high 20s or low 30s may not seem dangerous, but they can be fatal, particularly for people aged over 65, infants, pregnant people and those with pre-existing health conditions." He warned of the increasing dangers without prompt action: "Unless effective mitigation and adaptive measures are put in place in the coming years, the risk of large heat-related death events is set to increase in the UK – we have a large ageing population and warming is expected to increase to 2C by 2050 and as high as 3C this century." Dr Lorna Powell, an NHS urgent care doctor in East London who did not participate in the study, shared her observations from the front line: "We are seeing cases of heat-related illnesses rising in our urgent care departments." She described the rapid escalation of symptoms: "Heat exhaustion can quickly trigger more serious illnesses as dehydration sets in and the cardiovascular system becomes overwhelmed." Article continues below
Time of India
13 hours ago
- Climate
- Time of India
Nearly 600 in UK may die this week — a deadly heatwave warning from scientists
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel Hundreds of people in the UK may die from heat-related causes this weekend, researchers have warned, as a new real-time analysis estimates that high temperatures from Thursday to Sunday could claim as many as 570 at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London published the findings on Saturday, using a model that combines mortality risk with weather forecasts to calculate potential deaths during the ongoing heatwave According to the study, there could have been 114 fatalities on Thursday and 152 on Friday. The toll is expected to rise over the weekend, with a projected 303 additional heat-related deaths . Saturday is forecast to be the deadliest day, with 266 deaths, nearly half of which could occur in London."Our study should be taken as a warning," said Malcolm Mistry, who took part in the study and teaches at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. "Exposure to temperatures in the high-20s or low-30s may not seem dangerous, but they can be fatal, particularly for people aged over 65, infants, pregnant people and those with pre-existing health conditions."This is the first real-time assessment of heat-related excess deaths in 2025 by these institutions. The study uses decades of UK data to model health risks in 34,753 neighbourhoods across England and Wales. The researchers estimate a peak of 266 excess deaths on Saturday alone, when the heat is expected to be most severe. London is forecast to see the highest toll, with 129 excess deaths on that analysis arrives amid growing concern over the impact of extreme heat on public health. A separate study published on Friday found that the current heatwave was made around 10 times more likely — and 2°C to 4°C hotter — due to climate European nations are also bracing for deadly conditions this Germany, the national weather service issued heat warnings for Sunday across much of the western and northern parts of the country, including the cities of Frankfurt, Cologne, Hamburg, and Berlin. The warnings are triggered when temperatures are predicted to reach levels that could endanger is facing similar threats. Meteo France warned of an early heatwave in parts of western France on Saturday, with temperatures forecast to rise to around 39°C. The eastern departments of Rhone and Isere are also affected. An orange-level heat alarm has been issued, which signals the need for 'very vigilant' behaviour in light of 'dangerous phenomena.'Tracking the true number of heat-related deaths is complex, researchers say. While high temperatures exacerbate a range of existing health conditions, few death certificates list heat as a direct contributing cause.'Many people who lose their lives in heatwaves rarely have heat listed as a contributing cause of death,' said Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, lecturer at Imperial College UK has been experiencing unusually intense and sustained heat this week, particularly for this time of year. Health authorities have issued repeated warnings about the risks to vulnerable warming has sharply raised the chances of early heatwaves. According to a separate study published Friday by researchers from Imperial College and the World Weather Attribution group, a heatwave like this would have occurred once every 50 years before the industrial era. Now, it is estimated to occur every five years due to climate change.
Daily Mirror
a day ago
- Climate
- Daily Mirror
Heatwave 'to kill nearly 600 people' as weekend temps hit 32C, experts warn
Temperatures are set to soar between Thursday to Sunday with some parts of the country expected to reach 34C - but exprets have issued an ugent warning ahead of the heatwave Researchers fear nearly 600 people could die in England and Wales as temperatures heat up this week. The last few days have seen Brits hit with sweltering heat blasts reaching well above the average for the time of year, with the southeast blasted with 31C on Thursday and a blistering 32C expected in the area on Saturday. The rest of the nation will see similar but not quite as unbearable extremes between 18C and 28C, with no sign of rain until the following week Specialists from both the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and Imperial College London have warned the extreme heat could reuslt in excess mortality amid searing heats between Thursday and Sunday. Their study, which drew upon historical UK data, anticipates approximately 570 deaths due to the sweltering conditions spanning over those four days. The projected peak of excess deaths is expected to hit 266 on Saturday, correlating with the fiercest heat. Specifically, London faces the possibility of the highest excess death toll, with 129 anticipated cases. According to the researchers, their examination underscores the increasingly perilous nature of extreme heat on public health within the UK. This comes on the heels of a World Weather Attribution (WWA) group analysis made public on Friday, revealing the heatwave's likelihood and intensity has risen substantially, attributed to climate change by estimates of 100 times likelihood and an increase of 2-4C in temperature. Dr Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, Grantham Institute lecturer at Imperial College London, underscored: "Heatwaves are silent killers – people who lose their lives in them typically have pre-existing health conditions and rarely have heat listed as a contributing cause of death." He emphasised the urgency of awareness, stating that "This real-time analysis reveals the hidden toll of heatwaves and we want it to help raise the alarm." He warned: "Heatwaves are an underappreciated threat in the UK and they're becoming more dangerous with climate change." Dr Konstantinoudis has urged the public to heed heat-health warnings this weekend and to keep a watchful eye on the elderly, particularly those who are living by themselves. With predictions of temperatures soaring to 32C in the South East on Saturday, London already felt the sweltering touch hitting the forecasted highs on Thursday. The team of experts analysed data sourced from existing research assessing the connection between thermal extremes and day-to-day mortality rates for any reason across 34,753 locales in England and Wales. Merging this data with precise weather projections courtesy of Copernicus' climate service, they offered an estimate for the imminent heat-related fatalities. Their calculations indicate that there could have been 114 additional deaths on Thursday, 152 on Friday, ramping up to 266 on Saturday, and subsiding to 37 on Sunday as the mercury dips to less temperamental mid-20s. Predictions highlight those over 65 as being the most vulnerable, estimating 488 excess deaths within this demographic, according to the report. However, experts remind us that rising temperatures pose risks to life across all age brackets, with an estimated 82 younger individuals potentially succumbing to the heat. Furthermore, they caution that this scrutiny might underestimate the impact, given it overlooks how early-season heatwaves can catch populations off guard before they acclimatise to heightened temperatures. The UK Climate Change Committee has published a startling report, estimating that if the temperature soars by 2C due to unabated fossil fuel combustion, heat-related deaths could skyrocket to over 10,000 annually by 2050. This week, United Nations experts have sounded the alarm bells, declaring that we're at a do-or-die moment to curb rising temperatures, with only a three-year window to thwart global temps from breaching the critical 1.5C mark. Professor Antonio Gasparrini from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) weighed in on the subject: "Increases of just a degree or two can be the difference between life and death." He outlined the sobering ripple effects: "Every fraction of a degree of warming will cause more hospital admissions and heat deaths, putting more strain on the NHS." Assistant Professor Dr Malcolm Mistry, also from LSHTM, highlighted even warm temperatures we might brush off as harmless could actually spell disaster: "Exposure to temperatures in the high 20s or low 30s may not seem dangerous, but they can be fatal, particularly for people aged over 65, infants, pregnant people and those with pre-existing health conditions." He sent out a dire warning: "Unless effective mitigation and adaptive measures are put in place in the coming years, the risk of large heat-related death events is set to increase in the UK – we have a large ageing population and warming is expected to increase to 2C by 2050 and as high as 3C this century." Speaking from experience, Dr Lorna Powell, an NHS urgent care doctor based in east London who was not linked to the research, reported: "We are seeing cases of heat-related illnesses rising in our urgent care departments." She indicated the swift progression of such ailments: "Heat exhaustion can quickly trigger more serious illnesses as dehydration sets in and the cardiovascular system becomes overwhelmed."
