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Zawya
09-06-2025
- Business
- Zawya
IMF backs Oman's reforms, warns of global risks
A recent visit by a staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), held in Muscat from May 21 to 29, 2025, has provided a timely and comprehensive assessment of Oman's macroeconomic trajectory. Led by César Serra, the mission engaged with national authorities on key developments, fiscal performance, structural reforms and medium-term outlooks. The statement issued at the end of the visit presents a cautiously optimistic picture of Oman's economy — one marked by resilience, reform and prudent policymaking — while also highlighting emerging risks that require close attention. According to the IMF, Oman's real GDP expanded by 1.7 per cent in 2024, up from 1.2 per cent the previous year. This growth was achieved despite reduced hydrocarbon output, in line with Opec+ production curbs. The performance reflects strong non-oil sector activity — especially in manufacturing, logistics, tourism and services — all core areas targeted under Oman Vision 2040's diversification agenda. Looking ahead, GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.4 per cent in 2025 and 3.7 per cent in 2026, supported by the expected phase-out of production limits and sustained investment in strategic sectors. Inflation remains well contained, registering 0.9 per cent year-on-year during January–April 2025, providing a stable environment for consumers and investors alike. The IMF notes that Oman's fiscal surplus stood at 3.3 per cent of GDP in 2024, although this figure was slightly lower than earlier estimates due to accelerated public investment in infrastructure, health, education and water services. In parallel, Energy Development Oman (EDO) redirected a portion of its dividend payments to long-term investment, further contributing to the temporary narrowing of fiscal space. Over the short term, the fiscal surplus is projected to moderate to an average of 0.5 per cent of GDP during 2025–2026, before recovering in the medium term as oil output increases and reform measures take hold. Importantly, Oman continues to make significant progress in public debt reduction. Central government debt declined to 35.5 per cent of GDP in 2024, down from 37.5 per cent the previous year. State-owned enterprise (SOE) debt also fell to approximately 31 per cent of GDP, reflecting continued progress on governance and operational reform under the Oman Investment Authority. Oman's current account posted a surplus of 2.2 per cent of GDP in 2024 but is expected to shift into a moderate deficit of around 2 per cent of GDP during 2025–2026, due to softer oil prices and more subdued non-oil export growth. Nonetheless, the IMF expects a return to surplus thereafter, contingent on higher oil production and stronger trade performance. On the financial front, the banking sector remains robust. Omani banks are well-capitalised, profitable, and maintain strong liquidity positions. The sector continues to support private sector credit growth, backed by an expanding deposit base and a positive net foreign asset position. The IMF report underscores that structural reforms are advancing across multiple fronts. The Tax Authority is implementing its Tax Administration Modernisation Programme, the Central Bank of Oman is refining its liquidity management framework, and efforts are underway to expand access to finance through a well-structured financial development agenda. One of the most significant milestones is the operational launch of Future Fund Oman, a new investment platform designed to mobilise private capital into key economic sectors. Several projects have already been approved, and substantial co-investment from the private sector has been secured. Simultaneously, Oman is intensifying its efforts in renewable energy, particularly green hydrogen. These initiatives are vital for future energy security, export diversification and industrial development. The finalisation of the 11th Five-Year Development Plan (2026–2030) — framed under the objectives of Vision 2040 — is expected to play a critical role in consolidating these reform gains and accelerating economic diversification. Despite a broadly favourable outlook, the IMF warns of downside risks. Geopolitical tensions, global trade disruptions and prolonged weakness in oil prices could all undermine fiscal and external stability. Furthermore, elevated global interest rates could raise borrowing costs and dampen private investment, particularly if hydrocarbon revenues soften. To mitigate these risks, the IMF recommends that Oman sustain its current reform momentum, enhance private sector participation and continue building fiscal buffers. Policy consistency and timely implementation will be essential to navigating this uncertain landscape. The IMF's mission affirms that Oman has made tangible progress in strengthening its economic fundamentals. Growth is returning, inflation is low, debt is declining and reforms are deepening. The economy is now better positioned to respond to external shocks and capitalise on long-term opportunities. As Oman prepares to launch its next development cycle, the focus must remain on execution. Maintaining investor confidence, advancing green energy initiatives and ensuring inclusive growth will be critical to achieving Vision 2040's long-term goals. Oman's economic strategy is evolving with purpose. The challenge now is to maintain momentum, institutionalise reform, and drive the transition from a hydrocarbon-dependent model to a resilient, diversified and sustainable economy. 2022 © All right reserved for Oman Establishment for Press, Publication and Advertising (OEPPA) Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Zawya
09-06-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Resilient non-oil sectors to keep Qatar's economy afloat in 2025
Doha, Qatar: Qatar's economy is expected to remain on stable footing in 2025, buoyed by steady growth in non-hydrocarbon sectors and a slight recovery in hydrocarbon output, according to a recent analysis by Fitch Solutions. While global economic uncertainty and softening energy prices have led to a downward revision in the country's growth forecast from 2.9 percent to 2.6 percent, Fitch reports that Qatar's diversified growth drivers and long-term energy export contracts will shield it from more severe global shocks. Fitch revised Qatar's real GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.6 percent, citing lower global energy prices and increased investor caution amid elevated international uncertainty. The updated figure is a slight reduction from the previously expected 2.9 percent but still represents a modest improvement over 2024's estimated 2.4 percent growth. Notably, Fitch remains more optimistic than the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which forecasts 2.4 percent growth for a second consecutive year. Analysts emphasises that the direct impact of recent US tariffs on Qatar will be minimal. Exports to the United States comprise just 1.5 percent of Qatar's total exports and less than 1 percent of GDP. Moreover, most of these exports are exempt from tariffs, resulting in an effective rate of just 6.4 percent well below the rates faced by many other MENA economies. 'We believe Qatar is largely insulated from weaker growth in key trading partners such as China, thanks to its reliance on long-term hydrocarbon export contracts,' Fitch analysts noted. This export model has proven resilient, limiting exposure to short-term global demand shocks. Instead, the downward revision stems primarily from anticipated softness in non-hydrocarbon sectors, particularly construction and real estate. Weaker energy revenues are expected to dampen both public and private investment, as lower oil and gas prices prompt a more cautious approach from investors. As a result, Fitch lowered its forecast for non-hydrocarbon growth from 3.8 percent to 3.4 percent. However, not all sectors are slowing. Manufacturing is projected to rebound in 2025 following a 2.2 percent contraction in 2024, and the financial sector is set to benefit from expected interest rate cuts. Fitch also pointed to signs of resilience in household consumption, supported by slowing inflation, rising wages, and population growth. 'Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from early 2025 shows stronger non-hydrocarbon activity compared to Q1 2024, especially in manufacturing, services, and retail,' the report stated. 'This reinforces our view that these sectors will continue to support overall economic growth.' On the hydrocarbon side, growth is forecast to rise slightly from 0.6 percent in 2024 to 0.9 percent in 2025, supported by a 1.6 percent rebound in oil and gas output. The sector is expected to gain further momentum in 2026, with output projected to jump 5.2 percent as capacity expansions from the North Field come online. The data also shows that Qatar's external accounts remain strong. Although the current account surplus is expected to narrow from 17.4 percent of GDP in 2024 to 10 percent in 2025 due to lower hydrocarbon revenues, the surplus is still large enough to maintain confidence in the riyal's US dollar peg. In terms of monetary policy, Fitch forecasts that the Qatar Central Bank (QCB) will follow the US Federal Reserve in easing rates, but at a slightly more aggressive pace. The QCB is expected to cut policy rates by 120 basis points starting in July 2025, compared to 100 basis points anticipated by the Fed. Since October 2024, QCB rate cuts have consistently outpaced the Fed's by 5 basis points per move. Despite the challenges, Fitch Solutions underscores Qatar's relative economic resilience in the region. The report added, 'Strong fundamentals, long-term contracts in hydrocarbons, and targeted government spending will continue to provide a floor under growth.' © Dar Al Sharq Press, Printing and Distribution. All Rights Reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Irish Times
05-06-2025
- Business
- Irish Times
Irish economy expands by almost 10% as exporters rush to beat tariff deadlines
The Irish economy grew by almost 10 per cent in the first quarter, up from a previous estimate of 3 per cent, as exporters rushed to get merchandise in the US ahead of the imposition of tariffs . Central Statistics Office (CSO) data show the economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), expanded by 9.7 per cent in January, February and March, one of the largest quarterly expansions on record. The agency said the increase was 'driven by significant growth in exports of goods'. Total exports expanded by 9.4 per cent in the first three months or by €18.2 billion with goods exports increasing by 14.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter, or €13.5 billion. The value of goods exports for the period was 44.1 per cent higher than a year earlier. READ MORE [ Welcome (back) to the era of Leprechaun economics Opens in new window ] Since April 5th, goods imported from all countries into the US have been subject to a 10 per cent tariff while US President Donald Trump has put a stay on a possible 50 per cent tariff on all EU imports until next month. Pharma accounts for the lion's share of Irish goods exports to the US and companies in the sector here have been fast-tracking product into the US to avoid incoming tariffs. The CSO's figures show the pharma-dominated i ndustry sector expanded by 17.1 per cent in the first quarter compared with the previous three-month period. By contrast, the domestic economy, as measured by modified domestic demand (MDD), grew by a more modest 0.8 per cent in the first quarter as personal spending on goods and services, a key driver of domestic activity, increased by 0.6 per cent. The information and communication sector, which contains the State's tech industry, posted an increase of 3.8 per cent over the same period. 'Today's GDP estimates for the first quarter of the year show that the Irish economy kicked off 2025 to a racing start,' said Robert Purdue, head of dealing at Ebury (Ireland). 'Irish exports took the lion's share of this growth as many businesses rushed to export goods to the United States before President Trump's tariff sanctions came into effect,' he said. 'While the GDP rebound is an encouraging sign of the resilience of the Irish economy, it also demonstrates its heavy exposure to trade challenges, with exports playing a vital role in the health of the economy,' he said. Separate figures from the CSO put the State's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May at 4 per cent, down from a rate of 4.1 per cent.
Zawya
03-06-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Algeria: Boosting productivity to achieve sustainable and diversified growth
Algeria's economy maintained its momentum in 2024 with non-hydrocarbon GDP expanding by 4.8 percent, driven by strong public investment and robust household consumption. Inflation eased significantly to 4.0 percent in 2024, partly due to the strong performance of the agricultural sector despite limited rainfall, supporting a slowdown in food prices, according to the World Bank's latest economic update for Algeria. Real GDP growth is projected to moderate to 3.3 percent in 2025 as extractive sectors recover, but public investment consolidates. If global oil prices were to remain low, external and fiscal deficits could expand in 2025. A contraction in hydrocarbon output and rising imports led to the return of a modest current account deficit, a decline in foreign exchange reserves, and a widening fiscal deficit. 'Algeria's growth path continues to be solid. However, the fiscal and external balance remain highly sensitive to oil and gas prices,' said Kamel Braham, World Bank Resident Representative for Algeria. 'Accelerating structural transformation is essential to build resilience and support sustainable growth.' Looking ahead, the report outlines several priorities to support long-term growth. It stresses the need to enhance productivity and gradually shift employment toward sectors with higher value-added, to help reduce reliance on public spending and hydrocarbons while making the economy more adaptable to future shocks. 'Productivity gains, particularly in manufacturing and services, are essential to unlock Algeria's growth potential,' observed Cyril Desponts, Senior Economist for Algeria. 'A shift toward higher-value-added sectors, supported by a progressive fiscal rebalancing, targeted reforms to boost private investment, and a skill development strategy, will be key to building a more resilient economy.' To achieve sustained growth acceleration, the report highlights the importance of strengthening the macroeconomic policy framework and economic governance, strategically investing in human capital, and promoting foreign investment to foster the transfer and diffusion of productive technologies and management practices across the economy, a key mechanism underpinning the graduation of middle-income countries to high-income status. Distributed by APO Group on behalf of The World Bank Group.
Times of Oman
31-05-2025
- Business
- Times of Oman
Indian economy doing well, may achieve growth at higher end of 6.3-6.8% projection in FY26: CEA
New Delhi: Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Anantha Nageswaran on Friday affirmed that the Indian economy is doing well and may achieve a growth rate at the higher end of its 6.3-6.8 per cent projection. "All in all, given the global environment, our economy is doing quite well," the CEA told reporters at a virtual press conference, soon after the GDP data for 2024-25 and January-March were released. "And if we continue with the efforts to bring in more foreign direct investment and the private sector, if it continues its increase in capital investment, which we saw in 2024-25 and urban consumption picks up on the back of let's say, better capital formation, hiring and compensation, then we can probably achieve a growth rate which is at the higher end of this range (6.3-6.8 per cent)." As was widely expected, the Indian economy grew by 6.5 per cent in real terms in the recently concluded financial year 2024-25. According to NSO's second advance estimates, the country's economy was projected to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. The Reserve Bank of India had projected 6.5 per cent GDP growth for the fiscal year 2024-25. In 2023-24, India's GDP grew by an impressive 9.2 per cent, continuing to be the fastest-growing major economy. The economy grew 8.7 per cent and 7.2 per cent, respectively, in 2021-22 and 2022-23. On Friday, the official GDP growth data for the January-March quarter was also released. The economy grew 7.4 per cent during the quarter. During the April-June, July-September, and October-December 2024 quarters, the country's economy experienced real-term growth rates of 6.7 per cent, 5.6 per cent, and 6.2 per cent, respectively. Asked whether unusual monsoon rains will impact vegetable prices, Chief Economic Adviser Anantha Nageswaran suggested against extrapolating a few weeks of prices and activity. "To say there will be a problem as of now, I think every indication is that crop produce will be good and with adequate inventory, the benign food price trends will continue," he explained. Amidst global uncertainty, the CEA said global growth for 2025 and 2026 is likely to slow, but India faces smaller forecast cuts in global forecasts. He supplemented high-frequency indicators for April 2025, showing strong Industrial and commercial activity in India. "Food Inflation remains benign due to good rabi harvest, higher summer sowing, healthy procurernent, and above-normal monsoon. Exports remain robust, forex reserves provide 11 months of import cover. Declining crude oil prices will potentially lower import bills, create fiscal space and alleviate external economic pressures," he said in a presentation. The government retains its outlook on 2025-26 growth at 6.3-6.8 per cent, with private consumption, especially the rural rebound, and resilient services exports as the key drivers. Multiple agencies have projected India's growth to be in the range of 6.3-6.7 per cent in 2025-26.
