Latest news with #GChokkalingam
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Business Standard
12 hours ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Sensex rises 1,100 pts, Nifty tops 25,100: What's driving market rally?
Indian bench mark indices gained over 1 per cent in trade, snapping a three-day losing streak, on Friday, June 20, 2025. The BSE Sensex surged 1,133 points or 1.3 per cent and logged an intraday high at 82,494.49. Meanwhile, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty50 topped the 25,000 level and rallied 343 points or 1.3 per cent to the day's high at 25,136.2. However, the 30-scrip gauge ended at 82,408.17, up 1,046.3 points or 1.29 per cent and Nifty50 closed at 25,112.4, up 319.15 points or 1.29 per cent. On BSE, Bharti Airtel, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Power Grid, Nestle and Reliance Industries were among the top gainers rising up to 3 per cent. On NSE, Trent, Jio Financial Services, M&M, Bharti airtel and Nestle were among the top gainers, rising up to 4 per cent. Why are Nifty and Sensex rising in trade today? US President Donald Trump has reportedly stated that he will decide within the next two weeks whether America will intervene in the Israel-Iran conflict. Overnight, Israel targeted nuclear sites in Iran with airstrikes, while Iran launched missiles and drones at Israel. The week-long conflict has escalated, with no clear resolution in sight from either side. According to G Chokkalingam, Founder, Equinomics Research, Trump's comment is positive for markets as the US is not expected to intervene in the war amid international pressure. "He may not go for direct conflict because of the international pressure which is positive for the Indian market," said G Chokkalingam. Crude oil prices ease As the White House delayed a decision on US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, oil prices corrected over 2 per cent which according to G Chokkalingam also boosted market sentiments. Last checked, Brent crude futures fell $2, or 2.5 per cent, to $76.85 a barrel. China keeps interest rate steady The People's Bank of China (PBoC) decided to keep its benchmark lending rates unchanged today as the trade agreement with the US helped alleviate some concerns about economic growth. The PBoC maintained the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3 per cent and the 5-year LPR at 3.5 per cent, according to reports. This, according to Kranthi Bathini, director-equity strategy, WealthMills Securities pushed the Chinese markets higher which also had a positive impact on Indian equities. At the last count, mainland China's CSI 300 was up 0.09 per cent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 1.26 per cent. RBI eases norms for new project finance loans A major contributor to the rally in Indian equities was buying in Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) Banks. Last checked, Nifty PSU Bank was up 1.59 per cent, where out of 12 stocks, 11 advanced. Among others, Punjab National Bank (PNB), Union Bank, Canara Bank, and Indian Overseas Bank were among the top gainers. The surge came after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) issued its final guidelines on project finance loans. The central bank has directed lenders to set aside 1 per cent of the value of loans for under-construction infrastructure projects to cover potential losses, easing its earlier draft proposal that envisaged provisioning rising up to 5 per cent, following an appeal by lenders. The requirement will come into effect on October 1. "RBI's decision to reduce provisioning on infrastructure loans is a major reason contributing to the bullish sentiment in the market," said Vishnu Kant Upadhyay, AVP - research & advisory, Master Capital Services. Sensex rebalancing According to Nuvama Institutional Equities, Sensex rejig can push the market upwards. "Historically, Sensex inclusions tend to see intraday upmoves, supported by stronger volumes, and a similar trend could play out this time as well." Tata Group-owned Trent Ltd and Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) are expected to be included in the benchmark 30-stock BSE Sensex index which are likely to bring inflow of $708 million. Trent is expected to see an inflow of $330 million, while the aerospace and defence electronics company BEL could see $378 million in inflows, according to Nuvama estimates. Technical view If Nifty is able to sustain the sentimental level of 25,000 level, we can see the momentum to accelerate further, but 25,000 level is the level to watch in the medium to short term," said Bathini. "Nifty is currently trading above all its key moving averages, indicating a positive undertone. The initial bias looks positive with a potential upsurge towards 25,200 which if broken decisively will take such a rally further higher towards 25,500-25,800. On the downside, the 24,600–24,500 zone is expected to act as immediate support. Any decline towards this range may offer a favourable opportunity to initiate fresh long positions," said Kant.
Indian Express
a day ago
- Business
- Indian Express
Why mid- and small-cap stocks witnessed selling pressure while Sensex, Nifty closed flat
Mid-cap and small-cap indices felt the heat on Thursday as investors became jittery amid growing uncertainties owing to an escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict. The Nifty Midcap 100 and the Nifty Smallcap indices fell 1.8 per cent and 2.28 per cent, respectively, during the intraday trades. The Nifty Midcap 100 plunged 1.83 per cent, or 1,061.75 points to a low of 57,047.45 in the intraday trades. The Nifty Smallcap 100 tanked 2.28 per cent, or 419.9 points, to a low of 17,958.55 during intraday trades. Both indices recovered mildly towards the end of the session, with the Nifty Midcap 100 settling 1.63 per cent lower and the Nifty Smallcap 100 down 1.99 per cent at market closing. In comparison, the benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, ended almost flat. The BSE's Sensex lost 0.1 per cent, or 82.79 points, to end at 81,361.87. The broader Nifty 50 declined 0.08 per cent, or 18.8 points, to finish at 24,793.25. Market analysts said that risk-off sentiments in the market is triggered by the crisis in West Asia and its economic fallout. During a risk-off period investors would prefer safe assets. The resilience in gold is due to this safe haven buying. 'In stocks, large caps are relatively fairly valued when compared with the mid- and small-caps, which are excessively valued. These excessive valuations are due to the sustained flows into these segments. It appears that investors are shifting from the risky over-valued mid- and small-cap segments to the safety of large caps,' said VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd. Whenever there is some kind of uncertainty in the market, retail investors tend to panic, which leads to heavy selling. This was evident in today's trading session, said G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research, Equinomics. From the Nifty Midcap 100 index, the companies that registered highest losses included Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd ( 4.3 per cent), Supreme Industries (4.22 per cent), Adani Total Gas Ltd (4.14 per cent), Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd (4.11 per cent) and LIC Housing Finance (3.78 per cent). Among the Nifty Smallcap constituents, firms that dropped the most included Brainbees Solutions (6.25 per cent), Inventurus Knowledge Solutions (5.54 per cent), Cyient Ltd (5.27 per cent) and Reliance Power Ltd (5 per cent).
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Business Standard
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Are high oil prices always bad for market sentiment? No, suggests data
High oil prices do not always dampen market sentiment, suggests data. Back in fiscal year 2012 (FY12) when Brent crude oil prices shot up 32 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to $115 a barrel (bbl), the Nifty 50 index had tanked 9.2 per cent. Even with oil prices ruling at $110 and $108/bbl in FY13 and FY14 respectively, the Nifty 50 managed to post a gain of 7.3 per cent and 18 per cent in each of these two fiscal years, data shows. GDP (gross domestic product) growth grew at a healthy clip of 5.5 per cent (in FY13) and at 6.4 per cent (FY14) back then. Triple-digit crude oil prices, said G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research, were common between 2007 and 2014. Things, he said, changed from 2014 onwards as the US increased production and shale gas came into play. China, too, shifted focus on services rather than solely manufacturing, which calmed oil markets. 'There were some structural changes. Alternate sources of energy such as solar and wind also took centre-stage besides crude oil post 2013-14. Oil and stock markets had started to discount higher shares of these two sources back then. A higher oil price is not always bad for the market sentiment, unless they run away too fast, too soon and stay elevated for a long period of time,' Chokkalingam said. In FY22 as well, the Nifty50 index moved up around 19 per cent when crude oil prices averaged $81/bbl during the fiscal year, up 81 per cent as compared to FY21. Even with a rise (crude oil price) of around 19 per cent the following year to an average of $96/bbl, the fall in the Nifty50 index in FY23 was a modest 0.6 per cent. Dangerous complacency That said, global stock markets, said Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, a global consulting firm managing nearly $12 billion in assets under management (AUM), are showing a 'dangerous complacency' in response to the sharp escalation of military conflict between Iran and Israel. 'This isn't resilience, it's a mispricing of risk. Investors are leaning into a narrative that no longer fits the facts.' 'Gold and oil are reacting appropriately to heightened geopolitical risk. Equities are not. Volatility remains artificially low. That divergence should concern every serious investor,' he cautions. Israel's recent counterstrikes mark a significant intensification, targeting infrastructure inside Iran—a move seen by many as a shift away from proxy warfare and toward direct state conflict. The risks to global energy markets, analysts said, are growing. The Strait of Hormuz, which Iran could disrupt, carries roughly 17 million barrels of oil per day—nearly 20% of global supply. If the conflict persists, some even see oil prices hitting $150/bbl in the worst-case scenario. "Even the threat of closure or interference would likely push oil well beyond $100 per barrel, reigniting inflation and altering the current trajectory of interest rate policy in developed economies. If energy prices rise sharply from here, that disinflation story evaporates. Rate cuts could stall. Market momentum could reverse,' Green said.
Mint
5 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Indian shares muted as Middle East conflict dents sentiment
(Updates for morning trade) June 16 (Reuters) - India's benchmark indexes were muted on Monday, pausing after two straight sessions of losses as the conflict between Israel and Iran showed no signs of cooling, keeping investors wary and adding to geopolitical uncertainty around the world. The Nifty 50 was up 0.18% at 24,764.4 and the BSE Sensex rose 0.15% to 81,245.5, as of 10:12 a.m. IST. They rose about 0.4% each in early trade, before paring gains. Nine of the 13 major sectors logged losses. The smallcaps and midcaps lost about 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. Both the benchmarks posted weekly losses on Friday as Israel's military strikes on Iran escalated tensions in the Middle East. Over the weekend, both sides launched fresh attacks, raising geopolitical concerns. Crude prices climbed amid concerns over supply disruptions in the oil-rich Middle East. Higher oil prices are a negative for India, which imports the bulk of its energy needs. "The key risk for Indian equities is the Israel-Iran conflict. Any sustained rise in crude will hurt macro stability," said G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research of Equinomics Research. Other Asian markets were also muted, with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index trading flat. Among individual stocks, Tata Motors fell 5.4% after projecting fiscal 2026 operating margins of 5%-7%, below its earlier 10% target for its luxury unit JLR. Tata Motors was the top loser in the Nifty 50 index and also dragged the auto index 1% lower. HDFC Asset Management Company slipped 2% after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to "neutral" from "overweight", citing limited near-term catalysts following a 33% rally over the past three months. Airline operator SpiceJet gained 3% after its March-quarter net profit doubled year-on-year. Oil explorers such as ONGC and Oil India rose 0.5% and 1.5% respectively, as higher crude prices lifted realisation prospects. ($1 = 86.0810 Indian rupees) (Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee and Rashmi Aich)
Business Recorder
26-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Indian shares advance on EU tariff relief
MUMBAI: Indian shares advanced on Monday, extending gains from the previous session, on easing global trade tensions and the Reserve Bank of India's record dividend transfer, which reaffirmed prospects of sustained fiscal consolidation. The Nifty 50 closed 0.6% higher at 25,001.15, while the BSE Sensex traded 0.56% higher to close at 82,176.45. US President Donald Trump backed off his threat to impose 50% tariffs on European Union (EU) imports, easing trade concerns, potentially hinting 'that the US may reduce its aggression in the trade war, which is a positive,' according to G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research and Advisory. The US and EU now have time until July 9 to work on a trade deal. All 13 major sectors logged gains. Metals jumped about 1%, as a weaker US dollar and Trump's reprieve boosted the appeal of commodities.
