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Asia Times
12-06-2025
- Politics
- Asia Times
Counting the cost of a million Russian war casualties
Russian military casualties in the war in Ukraine are expected to reach a million before the end of June. This figure, which is composed of combat-related injuries as well as deaths, reveals that Moscow is prepared to see its soldiers pay a staggeringly high price for Russia to maintain and expand its illegal occupation of Ukrainian territory. The scale of losses since the full-scale invasion in 2022 is a direct result of Russia's 'meat grinder' approach to fighting, which relies on sending waves of troops into enemy fire, sacrificing many so that a few can get through. Vladimir Putin's strategy has allowed Russian forces to make steady – but painfully slow – advances into eastern Ukraine, but at an estimated cost of 53 casualties per square kilometre seized. Russia is now changing the way it is fighting in Ukraine because of the high casualty rates. It is now using small, dispersed detachments because of the loss of large numbers of junior officers. Although replacements are being recruited from the ranks and quickly put through an abbreviated training, these new officers have neither the training nor the experience to command larger formations of soldiers. Large battlefield losses in Ukraine also put more pressure on military recruitment efforts back home in Russia. In the absence of a general mobilization, which Putin has been reluctant to declare, the ministry of defense has had to use creative solutions to deal with the war's insatiable demand for manpower. One response is to return wounded soldiers to combat duty before they have fully recovered. Some Russian soldiers reportedly have complained that they are being forced to return to the front before their medical treatments are finished. CNN reported that Ukrainian drone operators have released video footage appearing to show Russian soldiers on crutches in combat zones. Military recruiters also visit Russia's prisons with the offer of full pardons for those who survive a combat tour. Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service says Russia's Ministry of Defense has recruited an estimated 180,000 soldiers using this method, which was introduced by Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in the summer of 2022. Some of these former prisoners being recruited are reported to be women, although estimates of their numbers are hard to find. The active recruitment of women by the Russian military to serve in Ukraine appears to have been kept quiet because it contradicts the Kremlin's message that military service and the war in Ukraine in particular are the business of men and provide opportunities for Russian men to demonstrate their masculinity. Russia has increasingly turned to its allies North Korea and China to provide it with the soldiers that it needs on the front lines. Earlier this year, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that at least 155 Chinese troops were fighting for Russia in Ukraine, while North Korea is believed to have suffered approximately 5,000 casualties among the soldiers that Pyongyang has sent to Russia. But by far the most common solution to Russia's chronic shortage of soldiers is for the state to keep increasing the salaries and benefits on offer to civilians who agree to sign contracts to serve in the military. Monthly salaries of 200,000 rubles – more than US$2,000 – are typical, putting combat soldiers in the top 10% of Russia's earners. In addition to high salaries, the families of volunteer or 'contract' soldiers are eligible for benefits such as low-interest mortgages as well as generous compensation payments if the soldier is killed or permanently disabled. In some regions, more than half the social welfare budgets are going to soldiers and their families. This influx of money has transformed the lives of people living in some of Russia's most economically deprived regions. This increased prosperity has bolstered support for Russia's 'special military operation' in Ukraine. But the departure – and, in many cases, permanent loss – of so many men has shifted the demographics of many small communities, which are now populated largely by women, young children and the elderly. Those soldiers who return to villages and small towns with life-changing physical or emotional injuries will have their disability payments, but may struggle to get the medical support that they need from Russia's strained health care system. One category of Ukraine war veterans who have benefited most from their military service are the former prisoners who managed to survive their combat experiences. But one of the consequences of recruiting soldiers from the prisons is that when violent criminals return from the war with full pardons, many will commit new crimes. It is estimated that these former prisoners-turned-soldiers have so far been responsible for nearly 200 murders, sparking outrage among the victims' families. Although Russia has a large population, its human resources are not endless and have been under strain since even before its mass invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, bringing enormous combat losses and seemingly endless demands for more and more soldiers. Russia was already experiencing a demographic crisis. The proportion of society of child-bearing age is low, reflecting a dip in the birth rate in the 1990s. The Covid pandemic increased the mortality rate among Russia's adult population, while hundreds of thousands of young men left Russia in 2022 to avoid military service. A long-term legacy of this war will undoubtedly be a shrinking population, despite the state's efforts to encourage women to have more babies. Even those Russian women who aspire to earn the newly reinstated 'Mother Heroine' award by bearing and raising ten or more children may struggle to find men to father them. But despite the many problems experienced by Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine, those who survive their military service are being promised a golden future. In February 2024, Putin declared that the country's war veterans will be the new elite. Former soldiers are being offered a fast track into political office through the 'Time of Heroes' programme, which provides training, work experience and access to valuable networks. So far, only a small number of veterans have graduated to take up positions of power, but this suggests that the war in Ukraine will continue to shape Russia's political decisions for years to come. Jennifer Mathers is a senior lecturer in international politics at Aberystwyth University. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Euronews
31-05-2025
- Business
- Euronews
Russia accuses Serbia of 'stabbing Moscow in the back' by arming Kyiv
Russia accused Serbia of exporting arms to Ukraine, calling it a "stab in the back" from one of Moscow's longest-standing European allies. The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) issued a statement on Thursday claiming that "Serbian defence enterprises, contrary to the 'neutrality' declared by official Belgrade, continue to supply ammunition to Kyiv.' The statement alleged that the export of the Serbian arms to Ukraine was going through NATO intermediaries, "primarily the Czech Republic, Poland and Bulgaria." "Recently, exotic options involving African states have also been used for this purpose," SVR said. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić denied the accusations on Friday, saying that although the contract with the Czech Republic does exist, it does not allow exporting the materiel to another country. "For example, they correctly say that there is a contract with the Czech Republic. But no permission was given, and none of the (ammunition) was delivered" to Ukraine, Vučić told Serbian state broadcaster RTS. He added that he had already discussed the issue of arms exports to Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin recently and that it was agreed that Moscow and Belgrade would create a "working group" to establish how Serbian-made weapons reached Ukraine. This is not the first time Vučić has had to respond to similar claims. The Financial Times reported in June 2024 that Serbian ammunition worth €750 million has made its way indirectly to Ukraine. In March, Belgrade denied it exported arms to Kyiv after Moscow demanded to know if it had delivered thousands of rockets for Ukraine's defence against Russia's all-out invasion. Serbian arms' presence in Ukraine, mostly Soviet-era calibre ammunition adopted as standard and manufactured in the former Yugoslavia, has been publicly discussed since 2023, but it is unclear why the Russian foreign security service decided to react now. The SVR has claimed that the arms sales are being carried out through a "simple scheme using fake end-user certificates and intermediary countries" serving as "a cover for anti-Russian actions". The accusations out of Moscow went even further to say that "the contribution of Serbian defence industry workers to the war unleashed by the West, the outcome of which Europe would like to see as a 'strategic defeat' of Russia, amounts to hundreds of thousands of shells ... as well as a million rounds of ammunition for small arms". 'It seems that the desire of Serbian defence industry workers and their patrons to profit from the blood of fraternal Slavic peoples has made them completely forget who their real friends are and who their enemies are," the statement said. Vučić stated that the attacks on Serbia from the East and the West are "frequent" because Belgrade "leads autonomous and independent policies". Serbia is one of the countries in the Western Balkans that is considered a major candidate for EU membership. At the same time, Vučić has maintained close ties with Russia, including after Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He was among a handful of European leaders to attend Putin's Victory Day parade in Moscow on 9 May, a decision Vučić defended by saying he was there to celebrate Serbia's participation in liberating the continent from fascism in World War II. Serbia also refused to join Western sanctions on Russia and hasn't supported most EU statements condemning Moscow's full-scale invasion, although it voted in favour of its condemnation at the UN.
Euronews
30-05-2025
- Business
- Euronews
Russia accuses Serbia of ‘stabbing Moscow in the back' by arming Kyiv
Russia accused Serbia of exporting arms to Ukraine, calling it a "stab in the back" from one of Moscow's longest-standing European allies. The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) issued a statement on Thursday claiming that "Serbian defence enterprises, contrary to the 'neutrality' declared by official Belgrade, continue to supply ammunition to Kyiv.' The statement alleged that the export of the Serbian arms to Ukraine was going through NATO intermediaries, "primarily the Czech Republic, Poland and Bulgaria." "Recently, exotic options involving African states have also been used for this purpose," SVR said. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić denied the accusations on Friday, saying that although the contract with the Czech Republic does exist, it does not allow exporting the materiel to another country. "For example, they correctly say that there is a contract with the Czech Republic. But no permission was given, and none of the (ammunition) was delivered" to Ukraine, Vučić told Serbian state broadcaster RTS. He added that he had already discussed the issue of arms exports to Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin recently and that it was agreed that Moscow and Belgrade would create a "working group" to establish how Serbian-made weapons reached Ukraine. This is not the first time Vučić has had to respond to similar claims. The Financial Times reported in June 2024 that Serbian ammunition worth €750 million has made its way indirectly to Ukraine. In March, Belgrade denied it exported arms to Kyiv after Moscow demanded to know if it had delivered thousands of rockets for Ukraine's defence against Russia's all-out invasion. Serbian arms' presence in Ukraine, mostly Soviet-era calibre ammunition adopted as standard and manufactured in the former Yugoslavia, has been publicly discussed since 2023, but it is unclear why the Russian foreign security service decided to react now. The SVR has claimed that the arms sales are being carried out through a "simple scheme using fake end-user certificates and intermediary countries" serving as "a cover for anti-Russian actions". The accusations out of Moscow went even further to say that "the contribution of Serbian defence industry workers to the war unleashed by the West, the outcome of which Europe would like to see as a 'strategic defeat' of Russia, amounts to hundreds of thousands of shells ... as well as a million rounds of ammunition for small arms". 'It seems that the desire of Serbian defence industry workers and their patrons to profit from the blood of fraternal Slavic peoples has made them completely forget who their real friends are and who their enemies are," the statement said. Vučić stated that the attacks on Serbia from the East and the West are "frequent" because Belgrade "leads autonomous and independent policies". Serbia is one of the countries in the Western Balkans that is considered a major candidate for EU membership. At the same time, Vučić has maintained close ties with Russia, including after Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He was among a handful of European leaders to attend Putin's Victory Day parade in Moscow on 9 May, a decision Vučić defended by saying he was there to celebrate Serbia's participation in liberating the continent from fascism in World War II. Serbia also refused to join Western sanctions on Russia and hasn't supported most EU statements condemning Moscow's full-scale invasion, although it voted in favour of its condemnation at the UN.
Spectator
30-05-2025
- Business
- Spectator
Has Serbia really fallen foul of Moscow?
Is it getting harder for Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić to maintain his balancing act between Moscow and the West? Why else, after all, would Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) suddenly revive a year-old story about covert arms supplies to Ukraine? Back in June of last year, the Financial Times splashed the story that Serbia had exported around €800 million (£673 million) worth of ammunition to third parties that then ended up being transferred to Ukraine. At the time, Vučić did not try to deny this, but said that it had nothing to do with Serbia. 'We have had many contracts with Americans, Spaniards, Czechs, others,' he said. 'What they do with that in the end is their job.' This is nonsense. Ammunition, like weapons, is covered by the international system of end-use certificates, which control their re-export. It is, of course, possible for unscrupulous facilitators to find some loopholes in the system, but €800 million worth? Hardly.
Epoch Times
30-05-2025
- Politics
- Epoch Times
Ukraine Says It Can Confirm Beijing Is Arming Russia; Analysts Say Pressure Now Falls on US and EU
Ukraine on Monday laid out what it calls 'confirmed' intelligence that China is quietly sustaining Russia's war effort. Oleh Ivashchenko, head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, told state news agency Ukrinform on May 26 that China is supplying machine tools, specialty chemicals, gunpowder, and drone electronics to at least 20 Russian arms factories.
