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Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Nearly half of Fresno residents will flee due to climate risks, report predicts
Reality Check is a Fresno Bee series holding those in power to account and shining a light on their decisions. Have a tip? Email tips@ A new risk report from a private firm predicts a large exodus of residents from Fresno County as the effects of climate change exacerbate the region's issues and costs of living in the next three decades. The risk-assessing firm, First Street, calculated 45.8% of Fresno County residents would abandon the county by 2055 because of rising insurance rates and decreasing land values. The report also projected a nearly 15% impact on costs in the region as home values decrease and the cost to insure them rise. Fresno topped the list of the areas effected most above Sacramento County and a couple of counties in New Jersey. The firm's prediction showed Fresno's hot weather and poor air quality could continue to worsen, driving down the desirability of the homes and pushing up insurance rates. Other parts of California have stronger economic outlooks that could help mitigate those issues, but Fresno's economic health typically struggles, noted Jeremy Porter, the head of climate implications for First Street. 'Fresno has had relatively stagnant economic growth with baseline population forecasts showing a stagnant growth rate into the future,' he said in an email. 'Together these indicators serve to amplify the impact of the climate risk that does exist.' Experts in the San Joaquin Valley who spoke with The Bee expressed skepticism of the report's bold assessment of Fresno County. While climate change would be expected to lead to displacement of residents, predicting the magnitude gets shaky because it includes so many factors, according to Naomi Bick, a Fresno State professor who studies climate change and urban politics. 'It's hard to know exactly how bad that abandonment and people leaving will be, because it depends on how other areas are as well and what they're facing,' she said. 'And then also what cities and counties and places do to prepare for climate change.' But, Bick said, the Valley is known to have disadvantaged communities, which could have greater difficulty adapting. Along with the rising temperature from climate change, the Valley could expect to see wider fluctuations in precipitation, according to Crystal Kolden, a professor and director of the UC Merced Fire Resilience Center. The Valley got a taste of those fluctuations in 2023 when unusually heavy rainfall fell on the snowpacked Sierra and resurrected Tulare Lake. Years with record-breaking rainfall could be followed by severe droughts under the weather swings of climate change. Kolden said she was skeptical of the First Street report, particularly as it pertains to wildfires, saying its assessment of Fresno does not delineate between the fire hazards of the flammable foothills and the less serious potential for fire in the Valley. The Valley's air can be affected by the occasional wildfire as it was during the Creek Fire in 2020, but often winds send the smoke east. 'I have not yet seen the types of risk models that have any level of accuracy about wildfire smoke in the future in part because it's so dependent upon low and high pressure systems moving through,' she said. The assessment also does not account for engineering solutions municipalities can develop to compensate for changes. First Street projected out to 2055 assuming no change to modern mitigation. 'In California, we just keep rebuilding and we figure out how to engineer our way out of it,' Kolden said. 'People are not depopulating hot areas. They're figuring out how to develop engineering solutions that allow for cooling.' Scientists are already working on solutions for re-purposing irrigated cropland, which is expected to lead to improvements in the Valley when it comes to the effects of climate change, according to Angel S. Fernandez-Bou of the Union of Concerned Scientists based in Merced. He said the First Street report uses 'coarse' data that can be less accurate. 'The report doesn't consider what we in the (San Joaquin Valley) are already doing to make this a better place,' he said in an email. 'I think we can transform the Valley into a climate resilient region.' The way insurance companies approach the state of California has begun to change due to climate change. State Farm stopped issuing new policies and this year requested fee hikes by an average of 22%. Home buyers seek out homes for their school districts or other desirable characteristics, and are rarely asking about potential hazards, according to Ken Neufeld, a broker with London Properties in Fresno for 45 years. 'Flooding is hardly on the radar,' he said. Brokers provide home buyers with information for homes in natural disaster zones, he said, but flooding only comes into question in areas where a breach of a dam would cause flooding. While buyers aren't asking about climate risks, they're often forced to insure against them, according to Jason Farris, president-elect of the Fresno Association of Realtors. He said he's been asked about flood zones fewer than five times in the last two decades. 'People are getting quotes for insurance premiums before getting into escrow on the property,' he said. 'People are spending a lot of money to get into a home.' But the Valley's climate experts say it'll take political will to adopt mitigating regulations and the participation of the region's residents to lighten the potential climate issues. Kolden said people often return to burned down foothills or flooded lowlands to rebuild and only leave the most undesirable areas behind. 'It is up to the local municipality, whether it's a county or incorporated areas, a town or a city, to actually enforce those codes,' Kolden said. 'When these communities are rebuilding after a fire, there's an enormous amount of political pressure to not hold people to those standards.'
USA Today
10-06-2025
- Business
- USA Today
Rising cost of homeowners insurance has scared away millions of Americans
Rising cost of homeowners insurance has scared away millions of Americans Show Caption Hide Caption Smoke drifting into US from Canada wildfires could impact health Smoke from wildfires in Canada has drifted into Montana, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Midwestern and East Coast states, and as far south as Florida. As homeowners insurance becomes more expensive, many Americans are choosing to go without it – even as risks that are prevented, or at least mitigated, by insurance coverage increase. The Federal Reserve's Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households of 2024, released in May 2025, is the latest analysis to document the trend. Across the country, 7% of all homeowners in the survey of more than 12,000 respondents had no insurance, the report found, although there were some discrepancies based on geography. When asked why they didn't have homeowners insurance, 43% said they 'couldn't afford it', while another 19% said 'it is not worth the cost.' And respondents with fewer financial resources were among the most likely to go without insurance. Roughly 3 in 10 homeowners with income less than $25,000 or those whose only asset was their home went without. The Fed's findings track almost exactly with a report published in early 2024 by the nonprofit watchdog group Consumer Federation of America. Approximately 7.4% of American homeowners are uninsured, that report found, representing 6.1 million homes. "Homeowners earning under $50,000 per year are twice as likely to lack insurance compared to homeowners in general,' CFA's authors wrote, adding that 22% of Native American homeowners, 14% of Hispanic homeowners, and 11% of Black homeowners have no insurance. The findings are concerning, the report adds, because it means those owners 'are at risk of losing their homes in the face of ever-escalating climate disasters and storms.' See also: Climate risk will take trillion-dollar bite out of America's real estate, report finds More recent research suggests the threat may be even more stark. An analysis from data analytics provider First Street, released in May 2025, found a direct correlation between lack of insurance and foreclosures. But First Street's findings also demonstrate it's not just the uninsured homes that suffer, but the broader communities as a whole. When storms hit and homeowners fall into delinquency, there's less tax revenue for municipal services like transportation and less demand boosting the local economy. Homes may be abandoned or not kept up, and the value of even undamaged homes may increase more slowly or decline outright. Still, there are good reasons why millions of homeowners say insurance is too expensive for them. 2025 data from CFA shows that in 2024, a typical homeowner – with a midrange credit score and a house with a $350,000 replacement value – faced an average premium of $3,303 per year – $275 per month. Those numbers have been growing. First Street has shown that premiums started to surge around 2013. As of 2022, insurance costs made up more than 20% of the typical mortgage payment, roughly triple the 7-8% that they made up in the decade or so before 2013. More: Homeownership used to mean stable housing costs. That's a thing of the past. Since 2019, foreclosures have ticked up in tandem with the cost of insurance, First Street has shown. 'The one thing proven to prevent foreclosures is getting so expensive that it is causing foreclosures,' the group said. To combat the problem, CFA has a few recommendations. The group believes that requiring insurance companies to publicly release data on homeowners insurance underwriting, pricing, coverage, and claims every year would be a helpful start, by making the industry more transparent. CFA also recommends investing federal and state dollars in housing resiliency, and requiring that insurance companies charge lower premiums of homeowners who make climate risk reduction upgrades to their homes. 'The pace of rapidly rising premiums is increasingly unsustainable,' CFA said.
Axios
10-06-2025
- Climate
- Axios
Minority homeowners face higher climate risks
Minority homeowners are particularly vulnerable to certain major climate risks, a Zillow analysis finds. Why it matters: The findings reflect history and a legacy of redlining and economic disparities that still shape where people live — and how they're affected by climate change. By the numbers: Nationally, 81% of Black homeowners, 77% of Hispanic homeowners and 65% of Asian homeowners are at risk of extreme heat, compared to 52% of white homeowners, Zillow found. Meanwhile, 60% of Black homeowners, 43% of Hispanic homeowners and 33% of Asian homeowners are vulnerable to extreme wind, compared to 32% of white homeowners. Some 32% of Asian homeowners and 21% of Hispanic homeowners are vulnerable to poor air quality, compared to 11% of white homeowners and 9% of Black homeowners. How it works: Zillow's analysis is based in part on climate risk data for homes listed for sale on the platform, using risk modeling techniques from First Street. It doesn't include renters, who also face various climate risks. See the full methodology here. Between the lines: Some of the nationwide figures are a result of history and geography, says Zillow senior economist Kara Ng. For example: Black homeownership rates are higher in the South, she points out, where extreme heat is more common compared to other regions. Zoom in: Some cities have especially stark differences between groups for certain climate risks. In New Orleans, for example, about 95% of Asian homeowners, 92% of Black homeowners and 86% of Hispanic homeowners are vulnerable to flooding, compared to 76% of white homeowners. The bottom line: Climate risk is making homeownership more expensive due to rising insurance, energy and repair costs, Ng notes in her analysis — adding that vulnerable homes often take longer to sell and go for less money.
Daily Mail
10-06-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
California's capital headed for 'mass abandonment'
California 's capital Sacramento could experience 'mass abandonment' in the coming years due to the rising threat of flooding, a new report has found. Sacramento, which sits at the confluence of the Sacramento River and American River, is a high flood risk. In the coming decades conditions could continue to deteriorate, driving home insurance premiums so high that home owners will be forced to move elsewhere, researchers from First Street concluded. Sacramento County is the state's fourth largest metro, home to around 2.4 million residents. But First Street predicts that 28 percent of its population will have left by 2055, a number it considers to meet the threshold for 'mass abandonment.' The report argues that flooding will be the biggest factor in pushing residents out, combined with rising insurance costs , increasingly bad air quality and changing demographics. The National Risk Assessment report also argued that Fresno could lose half its population in the same period. Increasingly hot temperatures as a result of climate heating are melting mountain snow, increasing river flows and heavy rain events. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta lowlands will become less and less able to absorb such deluges and dangerous flooding will become more likely, researchers predict. In December a report from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce named Sacramento as at highly exception flood risk in need of mitigation. 'The Army Corps of Engineers and the [Sacramento River] levees have historically done quite a good job of providing protection,' UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain told the San Francisco Chronicle . 'That's probably thanks to good luck and probably thanks to good engineering, but that good luck probably won't hold forever.' Swain warned that mass development of low-lying areas around the city have spread the risk of flooding further. Developing the area has made California's Central Valley, but Sacramento in particular, one of the largest populations in the US highly vulnerable to flood risk. First Street found that risk of flooding was the biggest driver of migration in the US compared to other perils such as poor air quality, wildfires and hurricanes. One of the biggest economic risks of living in an area prone to flooding is that most home insurance providers will not cover flooding. Instead the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides a flood insurance program. First Street analysis found that it will cost 137 percent more to insure homes in Sacramento by 2055. Such costs will drive businesses and residents away to more climate-resilient areas. 'Some people will no doubt be displaced by climate events,' Jesse Keenan, director of the Center on Climate Change and Urbanism at Tulane University, told the Chronicle. 'But many more will be displaced, or at least steered by, the hand of the market,' he explained. Other areas of California are also facing an insurance crisis, with major providers such as State Farm hiking prices after threatening to pull out of the state entirely.
Daily Mail
08-06-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
Sacramento could be headed for 'mass abandonment' for disturbing new reason
California's capital Sacramento could experience 'mass abandonment' in the coming years due to the rising threat of flooding, a new report has found. Sacramento, which sits at the confluence of the Sacramento River and American River, is a high flood risk. In the coming decades conditions could continue to deteriorate, driving home insurance premiums so high that home owners will be forced to move elsewhere, researchers from First Street concluded. Sacramento County is the state's fourth largest metro, home to around 2.4 million residents. But First Street predicts that 28 percent of its population will have left by 2055, a number it considers to meet the threshold for 'mass abandonment.' The report argues that flooding will be the biggest factor in pushing residents out, combined with rising insurance costs, increasingly bad air quality and changing demographics. The National Risk Assessment report also argued that Fresno could lose half its population in the same period. Increasingly hot temperatures as a result of climate heating are melting mountain snow, increasing river flows and heavy rain events. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta lowlands will become less and less able to absorb such deluges and dangerous flooding will become more likely, researchers predict. In December a report from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce named Sacramento as at highly exception flood risk in need of mitigation. 'The Army Corps of Engineers and the [Sacramento River] levees have historically done quite a good job of providing protection,' UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain told the San Francisco Chronicle. 'That's probably thanks to good luck and probably thanks to good engineering, but that good luck probably won't hold forever.' Swain warned that mass development of low-lying areas around the city have spread the risk of flooding further. Developing the area has made California's Central Valley, but Sacramento in particular, one of the largest populations in the US highly vulnerable to flood risk. First Street found that risk of flooding was the biggest driver of migration in the US compared to other perils such as poor air quality, wildfires and hurricanes. One of the biggest economic risks of living in an area prone to flooding is that most home insurance providers will not cover flooding. Many insurance providers will not cover flooding in their policies Mass development of low-lying areas around the city have spread the risk of flooding further Instead the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides a flood insurance program. First Street analysis found that it will cost 137 percent more to insure homes in Sacramento by 2055. Such costs will drive businesses and residents away to more climate-resilient areas. 'Some people will no doubt be displaced by climate events,' Jesse Keenan, director of the Center on Climate Change and Urbanism at Tulane University, told the Chronicle. 'But many more will be displaced, or at least steered by, the hand of the market,' he explained. Other areas of California are also facing an insurance crisis, with major providers such as State Farm hiking prices after threatening to pull out of the state entirely. Many Los Angeles residents that lost their homes in the devastating wildfires earlier this year found that their insurance policies will only cover a fraction of their rebuilding costs.
