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Daily Maverick
3 days ago
- Politics
- Daily Maverick
The new Iron Curtain: Eastern Europe mobilises for defence against Russian aggression
US President Donald Trump's threat not to respect America's Nato obligations has spurred Europe into action. Europe is preparing for war with Russia. On the one hand that seems like a statement of the obvious since European powers have been providing military support to Ukraine over the past three years. On the other hand it is striking to see and hear preparations for war taking concrete form along Nato's own eastern borders. To see the mobile air defence missile launchers recently deployed along the perimeter of the runway as you step off an aircraft at Poland's Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport, about 100km from the border with Ukraine. And Poland is mining its frontiers with Russia's Kaliningrad enclave and with Russia's close ally Belarus as part of its East Shield defence barrier, which some have likened to a new Iron Curtain rising across Europe. War with Russia — when it might happen, how to prepare for it — dominated discussion at the big Globsec security conference in Prague last week. The recent warning by German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl that Moscow could soon launch an attack on a European Nato member to test the alliance's Article 5 mutual defence obligations was the leitmotif of the conference, evidence that the threat was being taken very seriously. Europe jolting into action to assume greater responsibility for its own defence against Russia was the focus of discussion. 'Putin didn't wake up Europe. Trump did,' said Estonia's Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, pertinently describing how the US president's threats not to respect America's Nato obligations had finally concentrated Europe's collective mind. At next week's summit in The Hague, Nato states are expected to increase defence spending from 2% of national GDPs to 3.5% on hard military items such as tanks, warplanes, air defence, missiles and extra troops. A further 1.5% will be spent on things like roads, bridges, ports and airfields. But there are differences about how and how soon to do that, with frontline states in the east demanding much faster, firmer action than western European states. Read more: War in Ukraine 'I believe there is no point to start preparing for the war after the war,' Estonia's Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur remarked dryly, in response to suggestions that the increased defence spending of Nato member states could take place over three to five years. No state is more frontline than Estonia, probably the most vulnerable of all Nato member countries, because of its exposed geography and relatively large Russian-speaking minority. When Kahl, head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND), said he had evidence Russia was preparing to test Nato's resolve, he added: 'They don't need to send tanks for that. They just have to send 'little green men' to Estonia to defend the allegedly oppressed Russian minority.' The little green men referred to the clandestine Russian soldiers without insignia who seized key strategic facilities in Crimea in 2014 in the opening phase of the Russian occupation of the Ukrainian peninsula. Romania's Defence Secretary Sorin-Dan Moldovan agreed with Tsahkna, saying his country needed extra Nato spending in 'three to five days, not three to five years'. And he dismissed talk of the eastern flank being more exposed than the western flank, saying increased defence spending was about the collective defence of all of Europe. For countries like the Czech Republic (aka Czechia) and Poland, the threat is not only about geography but also about history. As Czech Deputy Foreign Minister Jan Marian told visiting African journalists last week, 'in these two countries the understanding of the Russian threat is even more imminent' than for some other Nato countries, because 'we have our historical experience with Russian aggressive behaviour'. He refers to the fact that after World War 2 both countries were forced to become part of the 'Eastern Bloc' — satellites of the Soviet Union — and in 1968 Moscow and other countries of the Warsaw Pact sent tanks into what was then Czechoslovakia to crush the 'Prague Spring', a fragile blossoming of very modest freedom. Poland and Czechoslovakia then contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, finally gaining their independence. Behind, but improving The EU took an important step towards greater autonomy and integration in its own defence last year when it appointed its first Commissioner for Defence and Space, Andrius Kubilius. He was asked at the Globsec conference, though, why the European members of Nato had collectively spent more than $3-trillion on defence over the past decade and yet still had 'tiny tank forces, smaller air forces and still felt threatened by a much smaller and weaker Russia'. Kubilius answered that Nato's European members had underspent on defence for too long while looking for peace dividends from the US. He said the European defence industry had become very fragmented and had failed to use the power of a single market to improve its competitiveness. European nations were spending only 20% of their defence budgets procuring European production versus 60% on US defence production, undermining European defence productions. But he noted that things were changing. He recalled that Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte had said when Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Russia was able to produce more ammunition in three months than all Nato members, including the US, were able to produce in a year. However, Nato was improving. When the war started, EU states had promised Ukraine one million artillery shells and had only produced about 300,000 a year. This year it got up to two million shells. 'But still we are behind,' Kubilius said, adding that Nato was so far only meeting 53% of its targets for increasing its defence capabilities. He proposed various remedies, such as cutting red tape so that European defence companies could produce weapons jointly, and also said European countries should increase the joint procurement of weapons. These measures would both increase demand and decrease the costs of European defence production. But political will is clearly the key. War fatigue Daily Maverick likewise asked both Czech President Petr Pavel and Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky why Ukraine's many allies were unable to give it all the backing it needed, given their massive economic superiority over Russia. Lipavsky suggested the collective political will was lacking, saying: 'It goes back to the domestic debate in every allied state on how to support Ukraine and to what extent. 'You can follow the debate in the US, you can follow the debate in Czechia, you can follow the debate in Germany. 'So, yes, we have the power to do so (to help Ukraine win), we need to find a will, and I'm calling for that will regularly.' Pavel's reply was that Czechia and Ukraine's other allies did not aim to defeat or destroy Russia but just to help Ukraine to defend itself against Russia. He agreed that the West had the power to defeat Russia but remained cautious because it did not want to provoke Russia into a major conflict since it was armed with about 6,000 ballistic nuclear weapons. And even if Russia only deployed tactical nuclear weapons that would be disastrous. He said some European countries were cautious as they wished to resume economic relations with Russia when the war ended. But Pavel also observed that if Ukraine's allies had shown greater political will and fully supported the Ukraine from the start, it would have won the war in the first year and avoided the current stalemate where it now only seemed possible to reach a compromise settlement in which Ukraine would have to cede up to 20% of its territory that Russia occupies. And there is a danger that the unity of Europe's political resolve to support Ukraine may be weakening, even as the EU steps up its efforts to increase support. 'War fatigue' seems to be setting in among populations grown weary of war talk, and war spending. Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has opposed military support to Ukraine from the start. Slovakia's recently elected populist Prime Minister Robert Fico has also suggested that his country might be better off neutral. Karol Nawrocki, Poland's newly elected president, who takes office in August, is ambivalent on Ukraine. He has publicly expressed opposition to Ukraine's accession to Nato and the European Union while also saying Poland should 'support Ukraine from a strategic and geopolitical point of view'. And in Czechia, the opposition ANO party led by former prime minister Andrej Babiš, which is leading in the polls for October election, is also ambivalent about the war. He has criticised current Prime Minister Petr Fiala's shipping of heavy weapons to help Kyiv and his initiative to find and fund artillery ammunition for Ukraine's defence. Globsec published a list of seven possible scenarios for the progress of the war over the next two years, which assigned the highest probability, 38%, to a scenario in which the war of attrition continued but with 'lowered intensity of hostilities due to draining out of resources on both sides'. It noted: 'The trajectory of the war will be increasingly shaped by whether Europe, particularly a 'Coalition of the Willing', can swiftly and quickly construct a credible, unified military and economic support framework for Ukraine in the absence of strong US leadership. Failure to do so risks weakening Ukraine's long-term capacity to resist and may create openings for Russian coercive diplomacy or territorial advances.' DM
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Germany's Merz may appoint ambassador to Ukraine as head of German intelligence
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is apparently preparing to replace the head of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and is considering Martin Jäger, the current German ambassador to Ukraine, for the position. Source: German newspaper Spiegel, citing its own sources, as reported by European Pravda Details: Initial signs of a leadership change at the intelligence agency emerged immediately after Merz's government took office. Spiegel has information that the replacement of the head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service has already been informally agreed upon, with Martin Jäger expected to take up the post. He is currently serving as Germany's ambassador to Ukraine. The current BND chief, Bruno Kahl, who has held the position for eight years, is set to become ambassador to the Vatican. He supposedly showed interest in the role even before the collapse of the "traffic light coalition" in late 2024, and his request is now expected to be fulfilled. Under the German government's plans, the BND is set to receive increased funding in the coming years, along with more flexible operational capabilities. Merz's team believes that with Jäger as head of the intelligence service and Philipp Wolff as intelligence coordinator in the chancellor's office, the BND's effectiveness will increase significantly. Read more: Europe Will Stretch from Lisbon to Luhansk – Ukraine Will Be In, Russia Out: Interview with German Ambassador to Ukraine Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!
Euronews
11-06-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
Ambassador to Ukraine Jäger to become Germany's new spy chief
Martin Jäger, Germany's ambassador to Ukraine, is set to become the new head of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), German media reported on Wednesday, citing government sources. Jäger will replace Bruno Kahl as Germany's spy chief, with Kahl set to take up the ambassadorship to the Vatican. The German government has yet to officially confirm the change. Jäger is considered an experienced crisis diplomat due to his role as German ambassador to Ukraine, a post he has filled since 2023, the year after Russia's full-scale invasion of the country. He previously served as ambassador to Iraq and Afghanistan. In Germany, Jäger, a member of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, worked as a spokesperson for the finance ministry, then headed by Wolfgang Schäuble. He also worked as state secretary in the Ministry of the Interior. The Federal Intelligence Service is subordinate to the chancellery and therefore under Friedrich Merz, who is authorised to appoint the president. The BND is tasked with collecting and evaluating information of foreign and security policy significance and supplying the federal government with reports and analyses. The BND is one of the few government agencies authorised to use intelligence services such as espionage. According to German outlets, the German government is planning a fundamental reorganisation of the intelligence service and wants to provide the BND with more funding. The BND is also to be given more flexibility in terms of spying abroad and technical reconnaissance, according to the domestic press.
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Defence at 5pc or learn to speak Russian? Spasibo, Mr Rutte
The secretary general of Nato, Mark Rutte, has come to London as the head of the most powerful military alliance on the planet to remind us Brits that unless we re-invest in our military capabilities we had better start learning Russian. Had we not achieved a similar feat after the 'awakening' of 1940, we would now be talking German. The development of Hitler's Nazi Germany in the 1930s is so frighteningly similar to Putin's actions in the 2010s and 2020s as to make you think the same playbook is being followed. Appearing to almost directly address Ms Reeves – ahead of her spending review on Wednesday – Rutte said: 'If you do not go to the 5 per cent, including the 3.5 per cent for defence spending, you could still have the NHS … the pension system, but you better learn to speak Russian. That's the consequence.' Rutte means 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence – as opposed to Keir Starmer's only concrete target of 2.5 per cent – plus another 1.5 per cent on security and infrastructure. In some respects Rutte is wrong. There will be no welfare state and no NHS if Putin takes over. Just look at the fate of ordinary people in Russia who can barely afford to eat, and both inflation and interest rates north of 20 per cent and rising. That shows what life might be like under a modern Warsaw Pact. Mr Rutte realises that we cannot appease tyrants like Putin and the only way to scare them off is to show strength. 'We are deadly serious that if anyone tries to attack us, the consequences of that attack would be devastating – be it Russia or anyone else,' he said. We must not repeat the mistakes of our forebears in the 1930s, who failed to rearm to the level of deterrence. If we had realised that only total domination of Europe would satisfy Hitler, we would have confronted pressing demands at home for more welfare spending and avoided war – not by letting the aggressor have his way, as was famously attempted by Neville Chamberlain, but by being strong enough that Hitler would have avoided a confrontation. As history recalls, when Chamberlain returned from Munich saying he had chosen 'peace in our time', Winston Churchill rebuked him: 'You were given a choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.' If we look realistically at what Putin has been telling us for the last 20 years we will understand that only the re-establishment of the old Soviet Union will satisfy him. The fact that none of those countries want to be part of Putin's Russia, means only one thing, as we are sworn to defend them under Nato Article 5: war. If we abandon them, we will be dishonoured – and we will be next, facing an enlarged empire with even greater resources. The Germans, realising belatedly the threat of another tyrant who wants to subjugate them, have issued a stark warning this week. Herr Bruno Kahl, head of the Federal Intelligence Service, said his agency had clear intelligence indications that Russian officials believed the collective defence obligations enshrined in the Nato treaty no longer had practical force. 'We are quite certain, and we have intelligence showing it, that Ukraine is only a step on the journey westward,' says Kahl. Secretary General Rutte is spot on. This message from a former European liberal politician may get many backs up here, but we cannot ignore it. History tells us he's right. Sadly we do not appear to have a Churchill among our modern day politicians to lead us through the coming confrontation with Putin. I know from comments added to my previous pieces on this subject in this paper that there appear to be some who want us to capitulate and give up without a fight. Most of them are clearly Russian bots, part of the massive Russian propaganda machine who would want us to do exactly that. But if people think life in Britain is bad now, look east and see the misery most Russians live under. Let us heed Rutte's warning, and in the immortal words of Donald Trump 'build baby build' military capability. Quite frankly if we fail to defend ourselves now, everything else vexing people at the moment will become horrifically irrelevant. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Germany's spy chief: Russians support Putin and his war
Bruno Kahl, President of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND), is convinced that the population of Russia largely supports their leader Vladimir Putin and his war against Ukraine. Source: Kahl in the Table Today podcast, as reported by European Pravda, citing German newspaper Handelsblatt Details: For a long time in the West, the idea was quite popular that Russia's war against Ukraine was "Putin's war" and that the Russian people did not really support it. "We have the impression that the entire Russian people are ready to follow Putin, that this war is necessary, and that evil NATO is the aggressor," Kahl said. "And that the war and, so to speak, the liquidation of this unjust regime in Ukraine are worthy of honour and glory for Russia," he added. Kahl believes that unwavering support for Putin is explained by the fact that the Kremlin leader controls the entire propaganda apparatus. This allows him to "manipulate the entire country, from west to east, in this direction". Although "within the circles of power and politics, there are somewhat different opinions about whether this or that move in the war is sensible or less sensible," Kahl emphasised, saying "there is no opposition that would in any way stand in Putin's way". Background: Kahl also believes that Russia intends to test NATO's resolve, in particular by expanding its confrontation with the West beyond Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that Russia is building up its military potential and will be ready to use military force against NATO states within five years. Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!
