Latest news with #EurasiaProgram
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
‘Warms words rather than real investment' — uncertainty surrounds newly-signed U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal
The signing of a long-awaited minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine has come after months of tense negotiations as Ukraine worked on resetting its tumultuous relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump. The deal, inked April 30, creates an investment fund and grants the United States special access to new projects developing Ukraine's natural resources, such as oil and gas, lithium, graphite, and rare earth elements. Trump, who has been looking to secure a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow, had been pushing Ukraine to sign the agreement, arguing that the U.S. should benefit more from its assistance to Ukraine. The country has been heavily reliant on U.S. aid since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. To the relief of many in Ukraine, the final deal avoids many elements present in earlier drafts viewed by experts as exploiting Ukraine. 'We don't see very problematic things' in the deal, said George Popov, a research analyst at the National Association of Extractive Industry of Ukraine. 'The main highlight is: we are very happy that we solved the conflict with Trump.' He cautioned, however, that the signing is only the first step in a long process before the agreement is implemented. The success of the plan depends on technical aspects that still need to be hammered out. 'We see a lot of political moments that the agreement is trying to solve, and not business and administrative points,' Popov added. 'The Ukrainians managed to take out the worst excesses of the deal.' Notably missing from the deal is one of the provisions most desired by Kyiv — security guarantees that could effectively deter further aggression from Russia after a ceasefire. It is also unclear how much investment will flow into the fund. 'The Ukrainians managed to take out the worst excesses of the deal,' said Timothy Ash, an associate fellow at Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Program, who called the initial deal "extortion." Yet the new deal, he said, is "warm words rather than real investment. I cannot see any big and meaningful investment in Ukraine until security is assured. And this deal does nothing there.' Since taking office in January, Trump has repeatedly pressured and threatened Ukraine in his attempts to secure a peace deal, while mostly avoiding making demands of Russia. The natural resources deal has remained a point of contention in the months since a hostile exchange in the Oval Office between Trump and President Zelensky on Feb. 28. Zelensky had flown to the U.S. to sign an earlier version of the deal, but left without doing so in the wake of the argument. A month later, Trump said to reporters aboard Air Force One, '(Zelensky's) trying to back out of the rare earth deal, and if he does that, he's got some problems. Big, big problems.' In recent days, however, Trump has made several comments suggesting his previous hardline stance against Ukraine is softening, while his patience with Russia is thinning. In signing the natural resources deal, Kyiv hopes to further increase cooperation and improve relations with the Trump administration. "I am grateful to everyone who worked for the agreement and made it more meaningful. Now the document is such that it can ensure success for both our countries — Ukraine and the United States," First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, who signed on behalf of Ukraine, said. One of the key wins for Kyiv's negotiating team was removing earlier provisions that put Ukraine on the hook to pay back Washington for aid already sent. The total aid provided by the U.S. is roughly $130 billion, according to independent tracking by the Germany-based Kiel Institute, and was granted with no expectation of repayment. Another major victory for Kyiv is new language in the deal that allows it to be altered if it interferes with Ukraine's accession to the European Union. Earlier versions raised alarms after experts noted it could become a roadblock to Ukraine's long-standing ambition to join the bloc because it would privilege the U.S. over other foreign partners. 'Ukraine gives half of the revenues from new licenses for natural resources to the fund, which reduces potential revenues for the Ukrainian budget for many years.' 'The Commission takes note that today's agreement includes specific provisions aiming to safeguard Ukraine's application to join the European Union, and to avoid conflicts with its current obligations under the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement,' Thomas Reigner, European Commission spokesperson, told the Kyiv Independent. 'We look forward to these being implemented rigorously.' Ukraine applied to join on Feb. 28, 2022, four days after Russia's invasion, a move widely supported by Ukrainians. The current deal also gives Ukraine full control over its land, infrastructure, and resources, and does not apply to existing projects. Questions about Ukraine's autonomy and the independence of existing companies had sparked fears for many of its supporters during negotiations. In addition to an absence of security guarantees, opposition MP Yaroslav Zhelezniak, who heads Ukraine's Parliamentary Committee on Finance, Tax, and Customs Policy, pointed out several other potential risks introduced by the deal on his public Telegram channel. 'Ukraine gives half of the revenues from new licenses for natural resources to the fund, which reduces potential revenues for the Ukrainian budget for many years,' he wrote after the deal was publicized. The deal could also limit Ukraine's ability to choose the best commercial terms and partners for investments, and may limit financial independence by guaranteeing conversion and transfer of funds, he noted. 'We are waiting for the details,' Zhelezniak told the Kyiv Independent. 'I don't think there's enough in the text to evaluate it yet,' he said. The deal still needs to be ratified by parliament, which would happen May 13-15 at the earliest, according to Zhelezniak. Then, parts of Ukraine's tax and budget codes will need to be adjusted to accommodate the deal. More information about the deal is likely to be revealed in two future documents, Zhelezniak added. First, an agreement between the agencies appointed by each country to administer the fund, and then a technical document that will explain how the process will work and how money will be distributed to partners. One of the biggest outstanding questions is whether this deal will actually attract additional investment to Ukraine's energy and mining sectors. Investment in Ukraine plummeted after Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, and dropped again after the full-scale invasion in 2022. While revenues from Ukraine's licenses will be added to the fund, it remains unclear how the Trump administration will encourage America's private sector to invest in Ukrainian projects. Unlike Ukraine, the U.S. does not have government-led mining or gas companies. Although past assistance is excluded from the fund, future military aid from the U.S. could count as a contribution. However, this would not contribute to the fund's goal of funding deeper investment in Ukrainian resource development. 'To the extent that the deal contributes to keeping the Trump administration engaged in supporting Ukraine, militarily and otherwise, it is a good thing,' Edward Chow, a non-resident senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Kyiv Independent. 'I think the parties are probably just happy that they have something to sign.' 'The question is, what does this agreement do from a potential investor's point of view that would make the investor want to invest more in Ukraine?' For example, he said, the deal doesn't include provisions like providing risk insurance at a reasonable price that could attract investors. The additional details in further agreements would have to address concerns from the business side before significant investment occurs. 'Clearly there was work done in negotiations, but I still don't see a really comprehensive agreement that, from an industry investor point of view, says, 'Okay, this changes everything,'' Chow said. Alex Cadier contributed reporting. Read also: U.S.–Ukraine minerals deal: key points of the newly signed agreement We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Al Jazeera
11-04-2025
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
Can Europeans alone change the course of Russia's war in Ukraine?
European defence ministers from the so-called 'coalition of the willing' have been meeting in Brussels to discuss boosting military support for Ukraine. Some countries are considering the possible deployment of peacekeepers if a ceasefire is agreed. The talks are part of a renewed push by Europe to arm Ukraine against Russia's invasion, after the US made military support a condition of Kyiv's participation in peace talks. Meanwhile, the EU's latest effort to rally funding for Ukraine has only exposed disunity in the bloc. So, does Europe have the means and the will to keep Ukraine in the fight, as Washington looks for a way out? Presenter: James Bays Guests: Pieter Cleppe – Editor-in-chief of Marina Miron – Researcher in the War Studies Department of King's College London Anatol Lieven – Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Yahoo
24-02-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Three years of Russia's full-scale war: a conversation with Rob Lee
The Kyiv Independent's Francis Farrell sits down with Rob Lee, former U.S. marine infantry officer and senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Eurasia Program. They discuss the evolving battlefield realities as Russia's war on Ukraine enters its 4th year and why peace negotiations are unlikely to bring results any time soon. We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Yahoo
19-02-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
As Trump detonates relationship with Ukraine, Europe has no fast answer
In just days, the Trump administration has torn up Washington's script on the war in Ukraine and its relationship with Europe. Now, even as the U.S. and Russia press ahead with peace talks that exclude Kyiv, Ukraine's European neighbors are struggling to unite around a shared response. French President Emmanuel Macron was preparing to host his second set of emergency talks this week in Paris on Wednesday, amid mounting pressure to form a clear and cohesive response to Trump's decision to negotiate directly — and so far exclusively — with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. 'The understanding that Europe is going to be treated in a very different way by this administration is something that's left European leaders stunned,' John Lough, an associate fellow at Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Program in London, said in a telephone interview Wednesday. Macron hosted talks on Monday after President Donald Trump excluded European leaders, including members of NATO, from ceasefire talks Tuesday in Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh. Talks on Wednesday will include NATO-constituent Canada and Ukraine's neighbors from Europe's Baltic and Nordic regions, according to a spokesperson from the Élysée Palace. The latest talks take place on the same day that Zelenskyy hit back at comments from Trump on Tuesday in which he blamed Ukraine for starting its war with Russia. The Ukrainian leader accused Trump of being trapped in a "disinformation bubble" and added that his country was not for sale. Trump's swift reversal of American policy toward Russia may have thawed relations with Moscow, which has faced diplomatic and financial isolation since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but it has brought with it a sharp turn away from Kyiv and sparked alarm across Europe. 'We are in, I think, a very serious situation here where the assumptions of many decades have simply been blown away — and principally, the assumption that the U.S. will underwrite Europe's security,' said Lough, who previously served as a NATO representative based in Moscow. The sharp shift in Washington comes at a rare moment for the European Union — the disparate and sprawling 27-nation bloc of more than 500 million people — when the region has few strong leaders. With German Chancellor Olof Scholz's party expected to perform poorly in elections on Sunday and after Macron's party lost its parliamentary majority last summer, the E.U.'s usual power centers are weak. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who won a landslide election last year and heads one of Europe's largest economies, can only advise the E.U. from the outside following the U.K.'s departure from the bloc in 2020. Now, drained of firm leadership and fatigued by Ukraine's long war, 'the Europeans have been really slow to recognize' America's shift, said Ed Arnold, a senior research fellow for European security at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank. That Europeans 'can't fully rely on the U.S., that's something that's just been around for a number of years but it's now that the Europeans are starting to panic at it because actually it could be worse than they have assumed,' he said. Whether that realization has set in remains unclear. After European leaders consulted Tuesday with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio following talks in Saudi Arabia with his Russian counterparts, E.U. foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas wrote on X that 'Russia will try to divide us. Let's not walk into their traps.' 'By working together with the U.S., we can achieve a just and lasting peace — on Ukraine's terms,' she said. But so far, European leaders have failed to present a clear and cohesive response to the rapid-fire developments in diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Instead, turmoil over Trump's stance on the war is highlighting divisions and disunity within Europe, Arnold said. "I think that's what Trump's trying to do in Europe. He's trying to circumvent the organization," he said, adding that Trump wants to "almost play them a little bit off each other to almost get what he wants." A key focus in emergency discussions has been determining what potential security guarantees for Ukraine might look like, with French President Emmanuel Macron and other European leaders maintaining that any agreement to end the war in Ukraine must come with 'strong and credible security guarantees for the Ukrainians.' After leaders discussed the possibility of countries including Britain, France and Poland deploying troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers, the U.K.'s Starmer said he was considering committing British forces, but maintained that 'a U.S. security guarantee is the only way to effectively deter Russia.' With Starmer and Trump due to meet in Washington next week, Lough said European leaders were having a "panic reaction" as they "try to figure out what they can do to persuade Trump" to jointly safeguard Ukraine's security. So far, Russia has known what it wants. The talks Rubio and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov engaged in this week culminated in a plan to restore embassy staffing on both sides and to continue discussions on a path to ending the war in Ukraine. "The constant expulsion of diplomats from Washington and Moscow does not lead to anything good," Putin told reporters in St. Petersburg on Wednesday. He added that, in Tuesday's talks in Riyadh, "on the American side, there were entirely different people who were open to the negotiation process without any bias, without any prejudice to what was done in the past.' Keith Kellogg, Washington's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia arrived in Kyiv on Wednesday for what is likely to be a tense visit. Zelenskyy said earlier this week he hoped to take Kellogg 'to the front line' and to meetings with intelligence officials and diplomats so he could 'bring more information back to America.' This article was originally published on
