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NBC News
10 hours ago
- Politics
- NBC News
Focus groups: Latino Trump voters diverge on deportations but largely still back the president
Some divides are emerging among swing-state Latinos who voted for President Donald Trump when it comes to his approach to mass deportations, according to new focus group conversations with some of these voters, who nevertheless remain broadly supportive of the president. Most of the Latino Trump voters who participated in recent focus groups observed by NBC News as part of the 2025 Deciders series, produced by Syracuse University and the research firms Engagious and Sago, said they approve of Trump's handling of illegal immigration. And most approved of his actions broadly as president. These voters were key to Trump's win in 2024, when he improved significantly among Latino voters compared to his previous campaigns. The president lost Latinos by 5 points last year, after losing the group by 33 points in 2020, according to the NBC News exit poll. Other estimates of the 2024 vote have indicated the broad shift, too, though some have not shown quite as much movement. The people in these focus groups said they voted for Trump because of concerns about the economy, including inflation, and about immigration. And most of them were still behind the president (all but four also voted for Trump in 2020). 'He's keeping his promises and he's doing what he said he was going to do,' David L., a 60 year-old Georgia voter who grew up in Mexico, said of Trump. But there were cracks, albeit small ones, in support for some of Trump's specific policies. Two voters who supported Joe Biden in 2020 and flipped to Trump in 2024 said they would not vote for Trump if given the chance to redo their vote, choosing instead to back a third-party candidate. One of those voters, Ruby L., 59, of Georgia, said she disapproved of Trump's presidency so far because of potential cuts to programs like Medicaid and because of his approach to deporting undocumented immigrants. 'He was going to deport people that were criminals and have backgrounds,' said Ruby, who was born in Colombia. 'But I see that he's deporting people that work hard and have been in this country. I think he should find a way to help them stay and get a citizenship or something.' Deportation divides Ruby's concerns about widespread deportations underscored some divisions among these voters, even as they broadly supported Trump's actions on immigration. Three of the Trump voters disapproved of his handling of illegal immigration broadly, while 10 approved. That may not reflect Latino Trump voters' broad views, because, unlike a poll, which uses statistical methods to demonstrate how a larger population feels, focus groups dig deeper into how individual panelists view key questions facing the country. 'Most of these swing-state, Hispanic American Trump voters firmly endorse the president's focus on illegal immigration, though they want more thoughtful prioritization regarding who gets deported sooner versus later,' said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderated the sessions. Several voters supported deportations of undocumented immigrants regardless of whether they have committed crimes. 'Well, what do you expect? If you came here illegally, you've done something illegal. Expect the consequences,' said Justin O., 38, of Nevada, who was born in the United States and is of Mexican descent. 'If we're not going to enforce laws, why bother even having them?' said Zachary N., 40, of Michigan, who is also of Mexican descent. Maria P., a 40-year-old Nevada voter of Puerto Rican descent, said Trump's focus on deportations is no different from that of previous presidents, including Democrats Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. 'They all did it, but now it's just the first time everyone's discussing it,' Maria said. Connie A., a 59-year-old Arizona voter of Mexican descent, questioned why an undocumented immigrant who has been in the country for decades had not attempted to apply for a green card or for citizenship. 'There's not a direct path,' countered Mariana L., a 27-year-old North Carolina resident who was born in Venezuela and was one of several participants who noted the path to becoming a legal resident, even for those who want to, can be difficult. Mariana was among the voters who did not approve of Trump's handling of illegal immigration, pointing to his move to revoke certain legal protections for immigrants from her home country. 'Changing those statuses is kind of unfair for the people that built their lives here,' she said. Mariana and some other voters also said the administration should prioritize deporting undocumented immigrants who committed crimes. 'I guess they're focusing on both those who have committed crimes and those who haven't,' said Jennifer L., a 44-year-old Michigan voter of Mexican descent. She approved of Trump's overall performance as president but disapproved of his handling of illegal immigration. 'There's some that are going back because they should, but then there are also some immigrants that are going that really, maybe they haven't committed a crime,' she later added. 'He said he was going to focus on the criminals and stuff like that. And then there's people that are not criminals that are also going,' said Oscar B., a 52-year-old Pennsylvania voter, adding that the Trump administration should take a more 'tailored approach.' Oscar, who was born in Venezuela, also noted that he has seen posts on a local Facebook page for Latinos in his area that warn about Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids. 'People on there, they make posts where they talk about ICE being in the city and not to go out of your house,' Oscar said. Ruby of Georgia also said she has seen 'a lot of fear' in her community. 'They're afraid to go out and [they say], 'Don't go out if you're a citizen, don't go out without your citizenship certificate or whatever because you never know,'' Ruby said. 'So they're creating that source of fear around the area. Other voters, like Maria from Nevada, appeared to wrestle with different approaches to deporting undocumented immigrants who have been in the country for years "giving back to society," she said. 'It is the law,' she later added, 'but sometimes the law makes it nearly impossible for a lot of them to actually become citizens at the end of the day. And that's what we have to realize, also. So that's why I'm torn.' 'We see in their responses how conflicted some of these voters are when it comes deporting longtime undocumented residents who have become de facto Americans, have families, pay taxes, live peacefully and contribute to society," said Margaret Talev, director of Syracuse University's Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship, which leads the focus group project in partnership with Engagious/Sago. "Yet overwhelmingly they're still supporting President Trump, showing the resilience of their loyalty and just how motivated they are in opposing illegal immigration,' Talev said. Los Angeles response While there were some divisions over the Trump administration's deportations, the Trump voters who participated in the focus groups broadly backed Trump's response to protests against ICE raids in Los Angeles. Ten of the 13 participants approved of the president's decision to deploy California National Guard troops and hundreds of Marines, with several voters describing the protests as violent and destructive. 'Normally it might be kind of out of the ordinary, being that it was so early into the demonstrations. But I think given the [Black Lives Matter] riots and everything our country went through a few years ago, and it being in California where [Gov. Gavin] Newsom will pretty much not put his foot down at all, I think that he had to get ahead of it, otherwise we would be seeing even more of it,' said Rozlyn C., a 44-year-old Georgia voter of Cuban descent. 'These idiots are trying to tear down their city,' said Irma C., a 58-year-old Arizona voter of Mexican descent. The few who disapproved of Trump's actions described them as 'too much too soon' or out of bounds. 'There is a chain of command that has to be followed. A governor needs to request — we can't just go in there, the state needs to request. Now, he's just completely gone against that,' Justin of Nevada said, referring to Trump. 'The U.S. military should never be used against its own citizens ever. Period. Ever,' Justin later added. Mostly positive on economy Several of these voters said they supported Trump because they believed he could best address the economy and high prices, and for the most part they like what they've seen of Trump so far on those issues. Eight voters said they feel less anxious about the economy compared to when Trump took office in January. Just two said they were more anxious. 'The reduced anxiety eight of them feel about the economy after just five months reflects not only their experiences as consumers, but also their faith in President Trump as businessman-turned-leader,' said Thau, the focus group moderator. 'As a small-business owner, my costs went up under Biden,' said William A., a 60 year-old Georgia voter of Puerto Rican descent, suggesting Biden's policies raised the price of oil, which impacted 'everything else.' In his view, Trump's policies are 'raising our fuel production and lowering fuel costs.' Mariana, the North Carolina voter who was born in Venezuela, said she backed Trump and the Republican Party because of her concerns about the economy. She said she's seen local grocery prices go down since Trump took office. 'I think that the inflation, economy's what they know and Trump being a businessman is just what he does and has been doing for a living,' she said. But Jennifer, the Michigan voter, said high prices on goods such as eggs, dairy, meat and produce have persisted, and she did not believe that Trump was making addressing inflation a priority. 'I thought it would be a top priority instead of renaming the Gulf of Mexico the 'Gulf of America' instead,' Jennifer said. 'But hopefully it does happen. But definitely, in Michigan here it has not — prices here have gone up and have stayed up. A majority of voters also said they supported Trump's actions on trade and tariffs, with the rest saying they do not know enough about the issue to weigh in. Georgia's Rozlyn C. said she disagreed with the president's decision to impose tariffs on some countries with which the U.S. did not have a trade deficit. But she is still broadly supportive of the president. 'I think he has a grand master plan that most of us probably don't understand,' Rozlyn said. 'But I have faith that he, a hundred percent, has the best interest of our country at heart.'
Axios
7 days ago
- Politics
- Axios
N.C. swing-voter focus groups: Negative on Tillis while supporting Trump
A majority of North Carolina swing voters in our latest Engagious / Sago focus groups expressed skepticism about re-electing N.C. Sen. Thom Tillis, even as they broadly support President Trump's policies, especially on immigration. Why it matters: While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events. The big picture: The Trump-to-Biden voters' said they could not point to any actions he has taken as senator, and only one of the 12 focus group attendees said they would be likely to vote for him. "After more than a decade, Sen. Tillis remains largely unknown to these North Carolina swing voters," said Rich Thau, President of Engagious, who moderated the focus groups. State of play: Tillis, who faced some backlash from Republicans for his stances on some Trump appointees, looks likely to face a tough re-election campaign next year — especially if former N.C. Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, enters the race. How it works: Axios observed two Engagious / Sago online focus groups Tuesday night comprising 12 North Carolinians, all of whom said they voted for Biden in 2020, then Trump in 2024. Nine are independents and three are Republicans. What they're saying: "I['ve] just seen so much stuff on TV ... around election time that just had a bad imprint on my mind. You say his name, it's like saying Joe Biden to me," Ashley B., 36, of Arden, said of Tillis. "He hasn't done much for North Carolina, in my opinion," Karen L, 61, of Wilmington said. Driving the news: Top of mind for the focus group, however, was the topic of immigration, especially with so much media coverage focused on anti-ICE protests in Los Angeles. A majority of the focus group said they support President Trump's deportations and activation of the National Guard and Marines in Los Angeles, despite reservations about extremism and civil rights violations. Seven of 12 panelists said they support the president's activation of the National Guard and Marines in L.A. despite Gov. Gavin Newsom's and local officials' objections. Three disapproved; two didn't have an opinion. Between the lines: Several panelists cited concerns about the economy, tariffs and political corruption. A majority objected to Trump's moves to cut university research (though many were unsure of the nature of the cuts) as well as the prospect of Medicaid cuts as part of the spending and tax-cut bill before Congress. Research funding cuts are already leading to job and investment cuts at UNC and Duke, both among the state's largest employers. After a decade of debate, Medicaid was expanded in North Carolina last year by the Republican-led General Assembly, giving hundreds of thousands of people coverage. "The people that need [Medicaid benefits], I mean they really need them," said Kimberly S., 37, of Sanford. "They need to be able to survive with medications and things like that."
Axios
7 days ago
- Politics
- Axios
Focus groups: North Carolina swing voters mostly OK with Trump's LA response
A majority of North Carolina swing voters in our latest Engagious / Sago focus groups supported President Trump's deportations and activation of the National Guard and Marines in Los Angeles, despite some concerns about civil rights and government overreach. The big picture: These Biden-to-Trump voters' desire to eject undocumented migrants from the U.S. — and their critical views of California and Democrats — shape how they see this massive test of executive power playing out far from their own hometowns. Seven of 12 panelists said they support the president's activation of the National Guard and Marines in L.A. despite Gov. Gavin Newsom's and local officials' objections. Three disapproved; two didn't have an opinion. Eight of the 12 said they believe Democrats prioritize illegal immigrants over American citizens. Why it matters: "Democrats who doubt their party remains out of touch with swing voters will be stunned by what these North Carolinians told us about immigration," said Rich Thau, President of Engagious, who moderated the focus groups. How it works: Axios observed two Engagious / Sago online focus groups Tuesday night with North Carolinians who said they voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2024. The panelists included nine independents and three Republicans. While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events. What they're saying: "The stance California has on illegal immigration only enables all these people, and they're not going to stop it," said Gregory D., 43, of Greensboro. "So we need to bring it up another level. It needs to stop. California doesn't want to stop it." "It's in the best interest of the nation that we call this, I don't know, uprising, call it what you want, but yeah, that needs to get nipped in the bud, just like George Floyd and all that sh*t should have," said Alex H., 44, of Charlotte. Butch F., 58, of Mebane, said he believes illegal immigrants got government assistance that reduced North Carolinians' access to disaster funds. Gerius J., 33, of Charlotte, said he's for diversity but wants to "do it the right way. Get the right paperwork, the right documentation." He said Democrats "have always wanted illegals to come here," and if anyone objects, "you're the bad guy. And as a U.S. citizen, I'm not the bad guy. I just want things to be done the right way." The other side: Karen L., 61, of Wilmington, said of Trump's immigration actions, "When he first started out, it seemed like he was really going after the criminals — like, the ones committing murder and rape — and he was getting all of them. And we don't want them here if they're [here] illegally, especially. But now ... it's way too extreme, and he's violating civil rights, and he's causing more chaos than anything." Rachid O., 46, of Raleigh, said the administration should prioritize arresting and deporting criminals, above all undocumented immigrants. Many undocumented immigrants pay taxes "so they contribute to the country," he said. Between the lines: Shifting the focus to combating illegal immigration may help him with some voters who have cooled on his performance in other areas. Several panelists voiced concerns about the economy, tariffs and political corruption and objected to Trump's moves to cut university research, or possible Medicaid cuts in the spending and tax-cut bill before Congress. "It's getting harder and harder to afford things," said Kimberly S., 37, of Sanford. "We are just kind of told, 'Hey, you just got to bear with us just a little bit more,' and it doesn't feel like it's getting any easier." Shauna S., 54, of Harrisburg, said when it comes to tariffs, "There's no plan, and it's been erratic. It appears to be an opportunity to manipulate the markets, and I really want someone to investigate where and who's actually gaining financially every time these tariffs are being threatened and then removed. I'm just curious what's really happening."
Axios
23-05-2025
- Business
- Axios
Focus group: Wisconsin swing voters stick with Trump
Wisconsin swing voters who switched from former President Biden to President Trump in our latest Engagious / Sago focus groups are mostly standing by Trump despite reservations. Why it matters: The speed and scale of Trump's tariffs aren't sitting well even with some who agree with the idea of tariffs. Some said they don't like Trump's treatment of neighboring ally Canada, his incivility and bullying, or his ambiguity about whether he'll abide by court rulings. But that's mostly outweighed by their faith that Trump's moves will eventually boost jobs, pay and fairness for American workers — even if it means paying more now. They also blame Biden and other politicians more than Trump for the current situation. The big picture: Nine of the 12 participants said they approve overall of Trump's actions since taking office. None of the 12 said they would pick Kamala Harris if they could get a do-over. "These Wisconsin swing voters view Trump transactionally," said Engagious president Rich Thau, who moderated the focus groups."They tolerate the parts of him they don't like so they can get the parts they do like." How it works: Axios observed two Engagious / Sago online focus groups Tuesday night comprised of 12 Wisconsinites, all of whom said they voted for Biden in 2020, then Trump in 2024. Ten are independents and two are Republicans. While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events. What they're saying: "I feel like both parties knew this needed to be done for a long time," said Lance Y., 54. "It was just a matter of which party was going to have the balls to go out and do it, and then the other party was going to complain about it. So Trump finally had the balls to say, 'Listen, we got to do this, we know it's going to hurt,' and now the other party's complaining." Alyson T., 47, said, "I'm OK with the tariffs," but Trump is "hitting it so hard. I'm a small business owner, so it's creating a lot of anxiety with people's spending right now that we're seeing. It's hitting really hard just because people are unsure." Zoom in: Trump's recent comment that sacrifice might mean children only get two dolls instead of 30 rubbed participants wrong. "It reminds me of Marie Antoinette," said Chris O., 49. "It's a little bit like 'let them eat cake' ... it just seemed like a disconnect with the average American person." "He was trivializing what is actually happening," said Kelly K., 45. "We're not concerned about an extra toy for our children. The children are not upset about that. We're concerned about having food and being able to afford groceries or getting enough hours at work that our employer can give us." What we're watching: Focus group participants said Trump must respect the courts, especially the Supreme Court, and clearly opposed deporting U.S. citizens without due process. But they were less sure about how due process applies, or what proof or appeal the administration should have to provide before deportation, if the government claims a person lacks status to remain in the U.S. Only four of the 12 felt Trump needs to engage the government of El Salvador to return Kilmar Armando Ábrego García to the U.S. to be properly adjudicated. The U.S. erroneously sent Ábrego García to a prison in his home country despite a judge's ruling that he could not be deported to El Salvador because his life would be in danger. Ruben R., 46, said while the U.S. administration had acted in error and Abrego Garcia should have had due process, "It's too late now," and shrugged it off, saying that from "what I heard, El Salvador crime is really low, so he should be safe now."
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The Trump Voters Who Like What They See
Earlier this month, after it became clear that the Trump administration would not be facilitating the return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia from a Salvadoran megaprison, I texted a close childhood friend. He'd voted for Donald Trump in each of the past three presidential elections, and I asked for his evaluation. 'Trump might be taking it too far,' my friend replied. 'But then again,' he added, 'he's a man of action and we wanted change.' Someday in the future, historians might well point to April 2025 as the first sign of an enduring erosion in Donald Trump's popular support. In just the first week of this month, America witnessed another mass expulsion of federal workers, in this case from several health agencies, followed by a tariff rollout that sent 401(k)s plunging like a Six Flags log flume. Even with stocks partially rebounding, feedback from riders has not been great for the president: Poll after poll has registered a drop in overall support for Trump, with many voters citing economic uncertainty. Trump's numbers on immigration, long a strength of his, are also beginning to slip. Another recent survey suggests that Trump has the lowest approval rating of any newly elected president in at least 70 years. But even as Trump's critics cheer the apparent change of heart among some of his supporters, they face an inconvenient reality: Many of his voters are jubilant. For these happy millions, the first 100 days of Trump's second presidency have been a procession of fulfilled campaign promises—and have brought the country not to the precipice of economic ruin or democratic collapse, but to a golden age of greatness. They see Trump as ushering in a new era of action, according to my conversations with several Trump supporters and pollsters in recent days. 'Even if they don't agree with everything he's doing, he's doing something, and something is better than nothing,' Rich Thau, the president of the nonpartisan qualitative-research firm Engagious, told me. Despite the relentless stream of shocking deportation stories—Abrego Garcia; the Venezuelan makeup artist; the Honduran child with Stage 4 cancer—many Trump voters see the president's handling of immigration as a highlight. The new administration says that ICE has so far carried out 66,000 deportations, a rate that is lower than that of previous administrations but that is partly the result of historically low border crossings. 'It's a night-and-day difference' from the Biden administration, Ben Cadet, a 24-year-old college student from Fort Lauderdale, Florida, told me. Cadet voted for Joe Biden in 2020 but switched to Trump in 2024, partly because he felt that Democrats had moved too far left and partly because he thought that Biden simply hadn't done enough to address illegal immigration. Trump's 'immediate action is something I would have appreciated from a Democrat,' he said. In the early days of the new administration, Cadet regularly called a friend to discuss Trump's executive orders on immigration, foreign policy, and 'the culture war,' he told me. The two would joke that they should cancel their Netflix subscriptions and tune in to Trump instead 'because watching everything he does is kind of hilarious.' [Mark Leibovich: Donald Trump is very busy] Thau, who conducts monthly focus groups of swing voters who supported Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024, told me that half of the participants in any given group cannot name a single thing that Biden achieved while in office. For many of them, the past 100 days—including Trump's deportations but also his tariffs, reams of executive orders, college shakedowns, and targeting of the political press—have seemed like 'an incredible flurry of activity by comparison to the guy who came before,' whom they'd already considered old, infirm, and not really in charge. 'I see a lot of politicians that they run and say a lot of things they're going to do, and they don't do any of them,' a woman named Mary told Thau in one of his recent focus groups about Trump (Thau identifies participants by their first name only). 'But I see him, and I approve.' If Democrats want to win back voters they lost to Trump, it would help them to first comprehend his appeal. That appears to be the conceit of the Working Class Project, a series of focus groups recently launched by the super PAC American Bridge 21st Century that attempt to understand why working-class voters have left the Democratic Party. In one of those recent focus groups, a Latino voter in New Jersey described his feelings this way: 'Trump just puts his foot down, and whatever he says, it just happens.' My own interviews reflected a similar sentiment. 'How many presidents have tried to implement everything they said they wanted to accomplish instead of backpedaling?' Timothy Hance, a 34-year-old manufacturing assembler from Ottumwa, Iowa, told me. For some Trump voters, this yearning for action makes them willing to indulge more authoritarian impulses. Self-identified MAGA Republicans are about twice as likely as Americans overall to say that detaining legal residents by mistake is 'acceptable,' according to a new CBS poll. And although most of the Trump supporters I interviewed were not keen on the possibility of sending American citizens convicted of crimes to jail in another country, as Trump has suggested he might do, one voter liked the idea. 'They're hardened criminals. If we can't put them to death, the humane thing would be for us to send them away,' Hance told me. (He also suggested that Trump should plow through the court orders from 'activist judges' holding up deportations. 'It's like, just do it,' Hance said. 'Ignore them.') For the many Americans who are happy right now, Trump's tariffs represent another exciting paradigm shift. 'The dream of globalism is going by the wayside,' Joe Marazzo, a 29-year-old property manager from Jacksonville, Florida, told me. 'It might not work, but at least we're trying something.' Sure, the president has retreated from his original plan to slap enormous import taxes on 90 countries, including the winged populace of Heard Island and McDonald Islands. But the still-high tariffs on Chinese goods are an important course correction and worth any discomfort they might cause, some Trump supporters say. 'It'll take a year. You can't build car plants in two days,' Jerry Helmer, the chair of the Sauk County Republican Party, in Wisconsin, told me. Theodore John Fitzgerald, the leader of a pro-Trump grassroots group in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, likened the short-term pain from the tariffs to subsisting on ramen noodles in college—or switching to a healthier diet. 'I have diabetes,' Fitzgerald told me. 'There's a little pain and suffering to make sure I don't lose any more toes.' [Sarah Longwell: The Trump voters who are losing patience] Some of Trump's staunchest defenders acknowledged to me that they might reassess their loyalty if a forthcoming trade war results in an untenable increase in their cost of living. Others, though, said that they find it difficult to even fathom such a redline. 'My hobby is hot-air ballooning,' Hance, from Iowa, told me with a chuckle. He'd rethink his support for Trump 'if that was banned.' Of course, Trump and his Republican allies cannot afford to make appeals to only their most ardent supporters. Not everyone is interested in the belt-cinching that tariffs might require. Overall, Americans are unhappy with the nation's economy, and 59 percent of the public now says that Trump has made economic conditions worse, according to a CNN survey released on Monday. 'Even folks who like him and think that he has good ideas tell us in focus groups that they hope they don't have to pay a lot in tariffs,' Margie Omero, a pollster at the Democratic research firm GBAO, told me. In a recent focus group that Omero conducted of 13 independents who had voted for Trump in the 2024 election, most participants gave the president a B or C grade, although none of them regretted their vote. With roughly 1,300 days left in Trump's presidency, many of his critics are hopeful that his recent dip in approval marks an inflection point, like the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan that sparked Biden's own backslide in public esteem. Communication is key to keeping Trump's unfavorables high, Omero told me. 'Some voters still aren't getting the message' about Trump's actions, she said. Many Americans believe that Trump has been too aggressive with his use of executive power, and in order to defeat him and his political allies, Omero argued, Trump's opponents need to help more Americans understand 'that what he's doing is unprecedented and is going against the Court.' Omero is right that many Americans probably haven't paid much attention to the details of Trump's first 100 days. But it's also true that, if and when they eventually tune in, some of them are going to like what they hear. Article originally published at The Atlantic
