Latest news with #ElNinoSouthernOscillation
New Straits Times
3 days ago
- Climate
- New Straits Times
Dry, hot weather to persist until September, says MetMalaysia
KUALA LUMPUR: The ongoing Southwest Monsoon since May 10 has led to dry and hot weather conditions nationwide, with a high number of rainless days expected to continue until September. Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) director-general Dr Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip said thunderstorms and heavy rain are still occurring from time to time, particularly in the western regions of the peninsula, northern Sarawak, and western Sabah during the mornings. He added that similar weather is also seen in the interior areas of the peninsula, Sarawak, and Sabah in the evenings and at night. "The squall line phenomenon, which brings heavy rain and strong winds to the west coast of the peninsula, northern Sarawak and western Sabah, may also occur especially in the early morning when atmospheric conditions are favourable," he said when contacted. He said during the seven-day period from June 10 to 16, most weather stations recorded temperatures below 35°C, except for Batu Gajah in Perak which recorded 36.7°C on June 15, and Limbang, which hit 36.5°C on June 13. "The temperature readings have dropped slightly at all stations following rainfall in recent days," he said. "At present, MetMalaysia has not issued any heatwave warnings due to the rainfall observed over the past few days." On sea conditions, he said a Category One strong wind and rough sea warning had been issued, with waves reaching up to 3.5m high and wind speeds of up to 50km/h in the northern Straits of Melaka and Phuket waters. The advisory remains in effect until Thursday, June 19. Commenting on the El Nino phenomenon, he said it was expected to remain in a neutral phase, with overall weather conditions likely to stay at average levels. "According to agencies monitoring the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the phenomenon is expected to remain in a neutral phase until October, and during this phase, weather conditions are forecast to remain average." "A detailed explanation of rainfall amounts in each district over the coming months is available on the department's website at he said. Mohd Hisham also advised the public to stay hydrated and limit outdoor activities during periods of extreme heat, as well as to wear appropriate clothing. "In the current hot and dry weather, drink plenty of water, avoid excessive outdoor activities, and wear suitable clothing. If outside, wear a hat or use an umbrella. "Open burning should also be avoided as it can lead to haze and environmental pollution.
Yahoo
09-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Storm Team 8 Explainer: Why has Connecticut seen 15 consecutive weekends of rain?
CONNECTICUT (WTNH) — Have you felt like it's rained every weekend lately? Turns out. it has! 15 might've been the magical number in 101 Dalmatians — it's anything BUT a magical number for Connecticut, which has had 15 soggy weekends in a row. Connecticut Weather Radar The rain has put a damper on so many outdoor plans, from proms, to parades, to graduations, dog walks, weddings and more. Starting from March 1 and 2 to this past weekend, we have had anywhere from a trace to over an inch of rain each weekend. This isn't exactly a unique occurrence. In 2024, 31 out of the first 36 weekends of the year had rain or snow. We also had quite the streak from April to September, when 21 out of 22 weekends featured rain showers. The only dry weekend in that time was June 15 and 16. So why are we doing this all over again? Why are we getting wet every weekend? The one thing in common between this year and last year — the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) cycle was in a neutral phase. There are three main phases to the ENSO cycle: El Nino, La Nina and neutral. When the pattern is in a neutral phase, that means the jet stream comes down from Canada, cuts through the Midwest, and across the Delmarva Peninsula. Storm systems are driven by the jet stream, so when we see this set up, we may dodge some direct hits, but we can still tap into some wet weather. To answer WHY it is happening on weekends — it's pure coincidence. Or bad luck. Or karma. But why stop at 15? It's possible we could go for weekend number 16. The dog days of summer will be here soon enough. Some DRY dog days would be nice. In the meantime, my apologies if you've had to move your plans indoors. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Otago Daily Times
01-06-2025
- Climate
- Otago Daily Times
A warmer winter is on its way
Electricity bills may deliver less of a hammering this winter if Niwa's outlook for the next few months comes to fruition. It shows temperatures from June to August are "very likely" to be warmer than average this winter, meaning fewer cold snaps and frosts than usual. Niwa National Climate Centre forecasting principal scientist Chris Brandolino said El Nino Southern Oscillation (Enso) conditions in the tropical Pacific remained neutral at present, but there were "residual signals" that indicated weak La Nina conditions were persisting. Occasional La Nina-like atmospheric patterns might still emerge over the next three months, he said. "However, international guidance indicates about a 70% chance for the tropical Pacific to remain in an Enso-neutral state over the next three-month period." He said higher-than-normal atmospheric pressure was expected to the east of the country, leading to northeasterly flow anomalies that might shift to a more northwesterly direction towards the end of the three-month period. That means seasonal air temperatures are expected to be above average across all New Zealand regions for the winter season. "While cold snaps and frosts will occur, they are expected to be less frequent than usual." On the West Coast, Southern Alps and foothills, inland Otago, and Southland, temperatures were very likely to be above average, he said. Rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal or above normal. Temperatures were also very likely to be above average along coastal Otago, he said. "Rainfall totals are most likely to be in the near normal range, and soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal or above normal." Mr Brandolino said for the remainder of the calendar year, Enso-neutral conditions were expected to persist. "The guidance available, however, suggests the possibility for La Nina conditions to return by summer 2025-2026." La Nina can bring more northeasterly winds to New Zealand, leading to drier conditions in the south and southwest of the South Island.
1News
01-06-2025
- Climate
- 1News
Daniel Corbett's winter outlook: Get ready for a wild ride
This winter could bring a bit of everything on to our table. It will be like grabbing the extra big plate at the smorgasbord to get a sample of everything from the buffet. The season's weather will feature lots of variety - from the risk of heavy extreme rainfall to Antarctic cold and some fine settled days in between. This variety will be the key feature because there's no set driving force to the weather over the next few months. Instead, we will have lots of factors jostling for space on our weather maps each week. Watch Daniel Corbett's winter outlook on TVNZ+ The main driver that can influence our weather is ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation – which has now tilted back to the middle of the scale. That puts us midway between the La Nina of last year and El Nino at neutral. ADVERTISEMENT In a meteorological sense that means the Pacific Ocean, instead of being too warm or too cold, is just in the middle. Iin other words, rather than a predominant El Nino which pushes westerly winds across New Zealand, or more easterlies with a La Nina, we could have both - if not other wind directions too. The big pink elephant in the room leading into winter is the warmer than normal seas around New Zealand, and many of the areas surrounding us, that help produce our weather systems. They are currently running 1-4C above normal. Sea temperatures are generally above average currently. Courtesy NOAA. (Source: Supplied) Our warming planet has been making this quite commonplace these days. Think of warmer seas like that hotter tub of bath water with rising steam coming off it. It has more rising air because of the warmer water, which can lead to more vertical motion to help create clouds and weather systems. Warm seas ADVERTISEMENT The extreme rainfall events in Nelson and at Taree in New South Wales are very recent memories but they're also a good reminder of the stacked deck of cards that the weather now throws our way during heavy rain events. The warm seas, a more significant feed of juicy air from the tropics, and the right conditions for low pressure development combined often play a part in these rainfall events. As a result, more extreme rainfall events may not be out of the realm of possibilities again over winter. With this mix of different types of weather during the season, the extra thick merino as well as the sunglasses and thinner layers will all come in handy. Of course, the raincoats will also be a big go-to at times. Overall, the winter will be warmer than normal thanks to the surrounding seas but that won't completely keep outbreaks of cold air from making a visit at times too. This will especially be the case when a lobe of the all too familiar Polar Vortex rotates into the Southern Ocean. Brrr! The skiers might find some decent snowfall on occasion too with the right moisture feed coinciding with these cold surges. So, get ready for winter - it looks like it could be a wild ride. ADVERTISEMENT Watch Daniel Corbett's winter outlook on TVNZ+
Hindustan Times
30-04-2025
- Climate
- Hindustan Times
Above normal rainfall likely over entire S Asia region, including India, in June-Sept
Most parts of South Asia, including India, will see above normal rainfall during southwest monsoon season (June-September) while maximum temperatures over the central parts of the region and most areas in the southern parts are likely to be normal to below normal, the Consensus Outlook Statement for South Asia Summer Monsoon Season said on Wednesday. The statement was released by M Ravichandran, secretary, ministry of earth sciences (MoES). Above normal minimum temperatures are most likely over most parts of South Asia all of monsoon season, except some isolated areas of south-eastern part of the region where normal minimum temperatures are most likely. 'The seasonal maximum temperatures are most likely to be above normal over most areas of the northern, eastern, and northeastern parts of the region, as well as some areas in the southern parts. However, maximum temperatures over the central parts of the region and most areas in the southern parts are likely to be normal to below normal,' the statement said. On April 15, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted that monsoon rainfall during June to September, over the country is likely to be 'above normal' at 105% of long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The private MET forecaster, Skymet Weather, had forecast a 'normal' monsoon at about 102% of the LPA, with an error margin of 5%. Also Read: No immediate respite from heat: IMD forecast The regional climate outlook for the 2025 southwest monsoon season over South Asia has been collaboratively developed by all nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of South Asia with the support from international experts at the 31st session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-31) being held in Pune. The process involved an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions, national level forecasts and forecasts from different climate forecasting agencies around the world. 'The northern hemisphere winter and spring snow cover extent has a general inverse relationship with the subsequent summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia. The NH winter and spring snow cover areas during January to March 2025 were below normal. The snow cover area during January and March respectively, was 4th and 6th lowest ever recorded during the past 59 years,' the statement said. These projections from southwestern monsoon are made based on El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Indian Ocean Dipole; tropical Atlantic Sea surface temperatures, Eurasian land heating, among others. The relative impact of all these parameters needs to be considered to determine the expected state of the monsoon over the region, which is implicitly considered by the dynamical climate models that underpin the present outlook. The ENSO is one of the global-scale climate phenomena that has a robust inverse association with the year-to-year variability of the monsoon over South Asia. Currently,neutral ENSO conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest forecasts from various coupled global models indicate that the neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue during the upcoming monsoon season. In addition to ENSO, other factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also influence the South Asian southwest monsoon. A positive (negative) IOD is in general associated with a stronger (weaker) than normal southwest monsoon over the region. At present, neutral IOD conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The recent forecasts from coupled global models suggest that the neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the southwest monsoon season.
