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Washington Post
3 days ago
- Politics
- Washington Post
Navigating Iran crisis, Trump relies on experience over star power
As President-elect Donald Trump assembled his core national security team early this year, congressional and media attention fell on two choices better known for their Fox News appearances and invective against a supposed 'deep state' than for their executive branch experience: Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard and Pete Hegseth, Trump's pick to lead the Pentagon. Both won Senate confirmation, barely.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump brushes off US intel reports on Iran to align himself with Israel
Tulsi Gabbard, the US director of national intelligence, delivered a concise verdict during congressional testimony this March: the intelligence community 'continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and supreme leader Khomeini [sic] has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003'. As he rushed back to Washington on Tuesday morning, Donald Trump swatted aside the assessment from the official that he handpicked to deliver him information from 18 US intelligence agencies. 'I don't care what she said,' said Trump. 'I think they were very close to having one.' Trump's assessment aligned him with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, who has warned that Iran's 'imminent' plans to produce nuclear weapons required a pre-emptive strike from Israel – and, he hopes, from the United States – in order to shut down the Iranian uranium enrichment program for good. Related: 'Not our war': bipartisan US lawmakers back resolution to block involvement in Iran It also isolates Trump's spy chief, whom he nominated specifically because of her skepticism for past US interventions in the Middle East and of the broader intelligence community, which he has described as a 'deep state'. Gabbard sought to tamp down on a schism with Trump, telling CNN that Trump 'was saying the same thing that I said in my annual threat assessment back in March. Unfortunately too many people in the media don't care to actually read what I said.' But as the Trump administration now appears closer than ever before to a strike on Iran, Gabbard has been left out of key decision-making discussions and her assessments that Iran is not close to a nuclear breakout has become decidedly inconvenient for an administration now mulling a pre-emptive strike. 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!' Trump wrote in a social media post on Tuesday. The US has dispatched another carrier group, KC-135 refueling tankers and additional fighter jets to the region. Those assets have been sent to give Trump 'more options' for a direct intervention in the conflict, US media have reported. Deliberations over the intelligence regarding Iran's breakout time to a nuclear weapon will be pored over if the US moves forward with a strike that initiates a new foreign conflict for the US that could potentially reshape the Middle East and redefine a Trump presidency that was supposed to end the US era of 'forever wars'. Israel launched airstrikes last week in the wake of an International Atomic Energy Agency report that formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years and said the country had enriched enough uranium to near weapons grade to potentially make nine nuclear bombs. Gen Michael Erik Kurilla, the head of US Central Command who has forcefully campaigned for a tougher stance on Iran, told members of the armed services committee in the House of Representatives last week that Iran could have enough weapons-grade uranium for 'up to 10 nuclear weapons in three weeks'. Yet a CNN report on Tuesday challenged that claim. Four sources familiar with a US intelligence assessment said that Iran was 'not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon' and that the country was 'up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver one to a target of its choosing'. The skepticism over Iran's potential for a nuclear breakout has also been reflected in Gabbard's distancing from Trump's inner circle. People often represent policy in the Trump administration and those with unpopular views find themselves on the outside looking in. Trump last Sunday held a policy discussion with all the top members of his cabinet on national security. But Gabbard was not there. Her absence was taken as a sign that US policy was shifting in a direction against Iran. 'Why was Gabbard not invited to the Camp David meeting all day?' asked Steve Bannon, a member of Trump's Maga isolationist wing that has pushed against the US launching a direct strike against Iran. 'You know why,' responded Tucker Carlson, an influential pundit in Trump's America First coalition who had slammed 'warmongers' in the administration including popular Fox News hosts like Mark Levin. Related: Republican hawks vs Maga isolationists: the internal war that could decide Trump's Iran response Days after the Camp David meeting, Gabbard released a bizarre video in which she warned about the threat of nuclear war, saying that this is the 'reality of what's at stake, what we are facing now'. 'Because as we stand here today, closer to the brink of nuclear annihilation than ever before, political elite and warmongers are carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers,' she said. The remarks could have referred to US involvement in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. But it is with Iran that US policy appears to be changing rapidly and avowed opponents of foreign interventions appear to be falling in line in order to avoid losing clout in the Trump administration. Trump 'may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment', said the vice-president, JD Vance, who has publicly called on the US to avoid costly overseas interventions but has remained muted over Iran. 'That decision ultimately belongs to the president. 'But I believe the president has earned some trust on this issue,' he continued. 'And having seen this up close and personal, I can assure you that he is only interested in using the American military to accomplish the American people's goals. Whatever he does, that is his focus.'
The Guardian
5 days ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
Trump swats US intelligence reports on Iran's nuclear threat to align with Israel
Tulsi Gabbard, the US director of national intelligence, delivered a concise verdict during congressional testimony this March: the intelligence community 'continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme leader Khomeini has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003'. As he rushed back to Washington on Tuesday morning, Donald Trump swatted aside the assessment from the official that he handpicked to deliver him information from 18 US intelligence agencies. 'I don't care what she said,' said Trump. 'I think they were very close to having one.' Trump's assessment aligned him with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, who has warned that Iran's 'imminent' plans to produce nuclear weapons required a pre-emptive strike from Israel – and, he hopes, from the United States – in order to shut down the Iranian uranium enrichment program for good. It also isolates Trump's spy chief, whom he nominated specifically because of her skepticism for past US interventions in the Middle East and of the broader intelligence community, which he has described as a 'deep state'. Gabbard sought to tamp down on a schism with Trump, telling CNN that Trump 'was saying the same thing that I said in my annual threat assessment back in March. Unfortunately too many people in the media don't care to actually read what I said.' But as the Trump administration now appears closer than ever before to a strike on Iran, Gabbard has been left out of key decision-making discussions and her assessments that Iran is not close to a nuclear breakout has become decidedly inconvenient for an administration now mulling a pre-emptive strike. 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!' he wrote in a social media post on Tuesday. The US has dispatched an additional carrier group, KC-135 refueling tankers and additional fighter jets to the region. Those assets have been sent to give Trump 'more options' for a direct intervention in the conflict, US media have reported. Deliberations over the intelligence regarding Iran's breakout time to a nuclear weapon will be pored over if the US moves forward with a strike that initiates a new foreign conflict for the US that could potentially reshape the Middle East and redefine a Trump presidency that was supposed to end the US era of 'forever wars'. Israel launched airstrikes last week in the wake of an International Atomic Energy Agency report that formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years and said the country had enriched enough uranium to near weapons grade to potentially make nine nuclear bombs. Gen Michael Erik Kurilla, the head of US Central Command who has forcefully campaigned for a tougher stance on Iran, told members of the armed services committee in the House of Representatives last week that Iran could have enough weapons-grade uranium for 'up to 10 nuclear weapons in three weeks'. Yet a CNN report on Tuesday challenged that claim. Four sources familiar with a US intelligence assessment said that Iran was 'not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon' and that the country was 'up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver one to a target of its choosing'. The skepticism over Iran's potential for a nuclear breakout has also been reflected in Gabbard's distancing from Trump's inner circle. People often represent policy in the Trump administration and those with unpopular views find themselves on the outside looking in. Trump last Sunday held a policy discussion with all the top member of his cabinet on national security. But Gabbard was not there. Her absence was taken as a sign that US policy was shifting in a direction against Iran. 'Why was Gabbard not invited to the Camp David meeting all day?' asked Steve Bannon, a member of Trump's Maga isolationist wing that has pushed against the US launching a direct strike against Iran. 'You know why,' responded Tucker Carlson, an influential pundit in Trump's America First coalition who had slammed 'warmongers' in the administration including popular Fox News hosts like Mark Levin. Days after the Camp David meeting, Gabbard released a bizarre video in which she warned about the threat of nuclear war, saying that this is the 'reality of what's at stake, what we are facing now'. 'Because as we stand here today, closer to the brink of nuclear annihilation than ever before, political elite and warmongers are carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers,' she said. The remarks could have referred to US involvement in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. But it is with Iran that US policy appears to be changing rapidly and avowed opponents of foreign interventions appear to be falling in line in order to avoid losing clout in the Trump administration. Trump 'may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment', said vice-president JD Vance, who has publicly called on the US to avoid costly overseas interventions but has remained muted over Iran. 'That decision ultimately belongs to the president. 'But I believe the president has earned some trust on this issue,' he continued. 'And having seen this up close and personal, I can assure you that he is only interested in using the American military to accomplish the American people's goals. Whatever he does, that is his focus.'
Washington Post
5 days ago
- Politics
- Washington Post
US spies said Iran wasn't building a nuclear weapon. Trump dismisses that assessment
WASHINGTON — Tulsi Gabbard left no doubt when she testified to Congress about Iran's nuclear program earlier this year. The country was not building a nuclear weapon, the national intelligence director told lawmakers, and its supreme leader had not reauthorized the dormant program. But President Donald Trump dismissed the assessment of U.S. spy agencies during an overnight flight back to Washington as he cut short his trip to the Group of Seven summit to focus on the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. 'I don't care what she said,' Trump told reporters. In his view, Iran was 'very close' to having a nuclear bomb. Trump's statement aligned him with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has described a nuclear-armed Iran as an imminent threat , rather than with his own top intelligence adviser. The Republican president was expected to meet with national security officials in the Situation Room on Tuesday as he plans next steps. Trump's contradiction of Gabbard echoed his feuds with U.S. spy leaders during his first term, when he viewed them as part of a 'deep state' that was undermining his agenda. Most notably, he sided with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018 when asked if Moscow had interfered in the 2016 election, saying Putin was 'extremely strong and powerful in his denial.' The latest break over Iran was striking because Trump has staffed his second administration with loyalists rather than establishment figures. Gabbard, a military veteran and former Democratic congresswoman from Hawaii, was narrowly confirmed by the Republican-controlled Senate because of her scant experience with intelligence or managing sprawling organizations. Gabbard, who left the Democratic Party in 2022 and endorsed Trump, is expected to testify Tuesday in a closed session on Capitol Hill, along with CIA Director John Ratcliffe, during a previously scheduled budget hearing. Both officials would likely face questions about their views on Iran and Trump's latest statements. Representatives for Gabbard and the CIA did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Gabbard, in her March testimony to lawmakers, said the intelligence community was closely monitoring Iran's nuclear program, noting that its 'enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons.' The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned that Iran has enough enriched uranium to make several nuclear bombs should it choose to do so. Iran maintains its nuclear program is peaceful. An earlier intelligence report , released in November under then-President Joe Biden, a Democrat, also said Iran 'is not building a nuclear weapon.' However, it said the country has 'undertaken activities that better position it to produce one, if it so chooses,' such as increasing stockpiles of enriched uranium and operating more advanced centrifuges. The report did not include any estimates for a timeline for how quickly a bomb could be built. Trump's immigration agenda is another place where he's split with intelligence assessments. He cited the Alien Enemies Act , a 1798 wartime law, to deport Venezuelan migrants, which he justified by claiming that the Tren de Aragua gang was coordinating with the Venezuelan government. However, an intelligence assessment in April found no evidence of that . Gabbard fired the two veteran intelligence officers who led the panel that created the assessment, saying they were terminated because of their opposition to Trump. In response to those reports, the White House released a statement from Gabbard supporting the president. 'President Trump took necessary and historic action to safeguard our nation when he deported these violent Tren de Aragua terrorists,' the statement said. 'Now that America is safer without these terrorists in our cities, deep state actors have resorted to using their propaganda arm to attack the President's successful policies.'
Yahoo
14-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
From buffer zone to new front: Russia pushes deeper into Sumy Oblast
In March 2025, as Ukrainian forces made their final retreat from Sudzha in Russia's Kursk Oblast, new grey spots began to appear on open-source maps on the other side of the state border, in Ukraine's Sumy Oblast. For the first time since 2022, when Moscow's forces retreated frantically from northern Ukraine, Russian troops have once again set their sights on Sumy Oblast. But for months, as Kyiv continued to claim hold of a thin sliver of Kursk Oblast and Russia's spring offensive escalated in eastern Ukraine, the fighting around the border in Sumy Oblast was often overlooked. Over June, Russian gains in Sumy Oblast have sped up significantly, taking several villages and coming within 20 kilometers of the regional capital of Sumy, according to territorial changes reported by open-source mapping project DeepState. As of June 12, fighting has been reported to have begun for the village of Yunakivka, a key stop on the cross-border highway between Sudzha and Sumy and a staging point for Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast. Over spring and summer, this part of the front line has been subject to strict restrictions on media access, with journalists barred from working with the military north of Sumy. On June 12, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukrainian forces had managed to 'push the enemy back' in some parts of Sumy Oblast, but these territorial changes are so far impossible to verify. Speaking to journalists on June 13, Zelensky said that the Russian advance on Sumy Oblast 'had been stopped' no deeper than seven kilometers inside the Ukrainian border, adding that some ground had been regained around the village of Andriivka. With Russia now holding over 200 square kilometers in Sumy Oblast, similar to that seized in the cross-border offensive on Kharkiv Oblast in May 2024, evaluations of the operation are torn between it being a limited escalation of fighting in the border zone or a major new Russian push. Not long after launching the Kursk incursion last summer, Kyiv claimed that part of the offensive's aim was to create a 'buffer zone' to protect Sumy Oblast, although in reality, the spike in Ukrainian military activity saw increased Russian strikes on border settlements where Ukrainian troops and equipment were based. After returning from a visit to Kursk Oblast in May, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the creation of a 'security buffer zone' of his own along Ukraine's northern state border. The sentiment was repeated on June 11 by Alexei Zhuravlev, first deputy head of the Russian State Duma's defense committee, adding that Russia was not looking to take all of Sumy Oblast (which is not one of the five regions illegally claimed by Moscow). 'A buffer zone of one hundred kilometers along the Russian border will be enough,' Zhuravlev said. 'Let them evacuate, retreat in fear, waiting everywhere for the attack of the Russian army.' Even if Moscow wanted to, mounting a direct assault on a large city like Sumy – with a pre-war population of 255,000 – would almost certainly be out of the reach of Russia's capabilities for the moment, said analyst Emil Kastehelmi, a member of the Finland-based open-source intelligence collective Black Bird Group. 'The Russians haven't been able to actually capture any larger cities in Ukraine since 2022 (with the surrounding and capture of Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast),' he said. 'What they can do is put heavy pressure on the Sumy direction and try to gain as much land as possible, in order to bring Sumy into range of artillery and drones, tying Ukrainian troops into defensive battles and giving Russia some leverage in upcoming negotiations.' Russia's push in Sumy Oblast comes amid a broader spring-summer offensive that has also seen significant gains in Donetsk Oblast, especially on either flank of the embattled city of Pokrovsk. With the Ukrainian army significantly overstretched along hundreds of kilometers of front line and suffering from chronic manpower shortages, especially in the infantry, Russia's pressure on Sumy Oblast creates more dilemmas. 'The Russians are most likely trying to create as many issues for the Ukrainians as possible in several directions simultaneously,' Kastehelmi said. 'They aim to create a cascading situation where the Ukrainians need to answer to a crisis in a certain sector by throwing in units from another place, resulting in units not being able to do proper rotations.' Still, with Russian forces relying on the same formula of creeping, infantry-based assaults employed all across a drone-saturated front line, maintaining pressure also comes with sacrifices made in offensive potential elsewhere. Join our community Support independent journalism in Ukraine. Join us in this fight. Support us Speaking to the Kyiv Independent, Volodymyr Martyniak, a company commander in the 22nd Special Purpose Battalion of Ukraine's 1st Presidential Brigade, said that Russia's main advantage in Sumy Oblast remained their ability to send wave after wave of lightly-mounted infantry at the Ukrainian defense. 'They are being organized into ultra-minimal teams, of just a couple of people, using the bare minimum of equipment,' he said,' things like quad bikes, other motorized vehicles, motorcycles to move quickly through rough terrain.' According to Martyniak, Russian forces in the area use a mix of expendable, cannon-fodder style infantry troops in the first waves of an attack, which are then followed by more experienced soldiers, demonstrating tactics refined since the Battle of Bakhmut over two years ago. 'At first, soldiers go in simply to move forward and dig in,' he described. 'Then, once enough of them have gathered in a certain area, enough to justify bringing in something more serious, a more advanced, better-trained, and correspondingly more professional unit follows.' Read also: 'Find and destroy' – how Ukraine's own Peaky Blinders mastered the art of bomber drones Just as when Russian troops broke across the border toward Kharkiv last May, the current advance in Sumy has raised concerns among the military and society about the preparedness of Ukrainian fortifications along the state border. As per the Defense Ministry's fortification-building initiative laid out in late 2023 and executed over 2024, while Ukrainian brigades and combat engineers would build the two lines of defense closest to the enemy, the third and strongest line of defense would be built by civilian contractors coordinated and paid for by regional administrations. Rather than coherent lines of defense, these fortifications were built around platoon strongpoints — individual fortresses consisting of several reinforced concrete bunkers connected by trenches. But as in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts, these fortifications have been criticized as poorly designed and built. Trenches and platoon strongpoints planned in 2024 were often constructed in open fields, with little regard for concealment or protection from drones. One Ukrainian combat medic, who requested to remain anonymous for security reasons, said that compared to areas in Donetsk Oblast where fortifications had been built in advance even if not ideally, nothing of the like could be seen in Sumy defending Ukrainian territory was easier than holding positions across the border because of better logistics routes, he said, there were still little to no prepared lines of defense waiting for them after the withdrawal. Ultimately, the strength of any line of defense is dependent not only on the fortifications themselves, but on the ability of the defending side to man them with enough combat effective infantry. Excess losses among Ukrainian units holding Kursk Oblast, where Ukrainian commanders had reported politically-motivated orders to hold Russian territory despite logistics routes being controlled by Russian drones, have made it easier for Russian forces to continue their advance across the border. In these conditions, Martyniak — whose battalion fought inside Kursk Oblast before crossing the border — says the defense of territory inside Ukraine started straight after the withdrawal from Sudzha in March. According to the commander, Ukraine's main problem in defense consistently remains the lack of manpower in the infantry. Efforts have been made to improve training and focus more on replenishing existing brigades rather than creating new ones, but by 2025, almost all new Ukrainian infantrymen are mobilized rather than volunteer as the skies above the front line become more saturated with enemy drones with each passing month, the experience of the foot soldier only gets deadlier and more difficult. 'Replenishments come in, but they must be trained, they must be professional, and, let's say, they must have some kind of motivation,' Martyniak said. Read also: As Russia inches closer to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, new Ukrainian region might soon be at war Further Russian gains toward Sumy could gradually bring the city into range of enemy first-person view (FPV) drones, which Russian forces often use not only to cut off enemy logistics, but to make entire cities unlivable by targeting civilian vehicles, as has been done with Kherson in the south. With Russian forces constantly improving the range of their FPV drones, including those running on unjammable fiber optic connections, the first such drones could fly into Sumy sooner rather than strikes increasingly deep behind Ukrainian lines in Donetsk Oblast including on the cities of Sloviansk and Druzhkivka have shown how FPV drones can fly further and further into the Ukrainian rear even if the front line itself doesn't move much. Over 2025, amid Sumy's increasing proximity to the front line and continued intense fighting along the border has seen the city subject to strikes from other weapons, including a missile strike in April that killed 35 people and wounded 129. On June 4, Russia struck Sumy with multiple-launch rocket systems, killing four and wounding 28, in the first attack with this kind of weapon recorded on the city since it was almost surrounded by Russian forces at the onset of the full-scale invasion in 2022. As the summer campaign in Ukraine heats up, Sumy Oblast threatens to become a new regular hotspot along the front line, whether or not Russian forces can keep up their pace of attack. 'Their real advantage here is that they have a massive military resource, first and foremost — a very large one,' said Martyniak, 'the enemy, as always, is building up its forces; they don't stand still, things are always in motion on their side, and they're constantly coming up with something new.' 'We, for our part, also try to respond with the same skills, the same experience, the same capability; we are carrying out our missions and holding the line with dignity.' Hi, this is Francis Farrell, and thank you for reading this article. When thinking about a major new front opening in Sumy Oblast, I can only hope that Zelensky is right when he says that Russia's advance has been stopped, and that just like with Kharkiv Oblast last year, the lines will stabilize and no more red will appear on the map in the area. Hope is nice, but whatever happens Russia only stops if they are stopped, and that comes at a price. For that reason, we will not stop what we are doing for a minute. We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
