Latest news with #DanielHynes
News.com.au
13 hours ago
- Business
- News.com.au
What the Israel-Iran conflict means for the oil market
ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes breaks down three potential scenarios concerning the Israel-Iran conflict's impact on the oil market. 'Certainly, tensions have ratcheted up over the past week,' Mr Hynes told Sky News Business Reporter Edward Boyd. 'We've sort of broken it down into three main scenarios: one being we get an extended conflict where Israel and Iran exchange missiles, but we don't see any sort of major supply disruptions. 'Things could escalate, and that would certainly bring greater risk to the oil market – we'd potentially see a huge amount of supply at risk, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. 'The final scenario being that the conflict essentially subsides.'
News.com.au
13 hours ago
- Business
- News.com.au
Israel-Iran War: Blocking the Strait of Hormuz is ‘worst-case scenario' for oil prices
ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes says the worst-case scenario in the Israel-Iran conflict is the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and how this will directly impact oil prices. 'The US is the wildcard here, and while we don't know how Iran would retaliate, certainly there are scenarios, as I said, where they could try and hurt the US by pushing oil prices higher,' Mr Hynes told Sky News Business Reporter Edward Boyd. 'Worst case scenario, that the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, then, there's no manner of supply that would be able to replace that quickly.'
News.com.au
13 hours ago
- Business
- News.com.au
Demand for iron ore remains high amid Chinese real estate sector
ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes discusses Chinese iron ore demand. 'We've seen the property sector there really weigh on steel demand for some time now,' Mr Hynes told Sky News Business Reporter Edward Boyd. 'The sheer size of steel that is consumed and thus iron ore in real estate creates some significant headwinds for the market. 'Amidst all that, the Chinese government is also trying to weed out some of the excess capacity in the steel industry.'
Perth Now
3 days ago
- Business
- Perth Now
Major miners drag the ASX200 down
A sell-off in the major iron ore and gold miners weighed on the ASX 200 on Wednesday, as investors bide their time and await the fallout from the Israel-Iran conflict. The benchmark ASX 200 index fell 10.1 points or 0.12 per cent to 8,531.2 on a day investors largely stayed on the sidelines. The broader All Ordinaries also slipped 13.20 points or 0.15 per cent to 8,757.90. The Australian dollar traded marginally higher up 0.37 per cent to buy 65.03 US cents. On a day of low trading volume, eight of the 11 sectors finished up, despite the overall market falling. Overall 104 stocks ending in the red, 86 gaining and 10 remaining unchanged. But this was not enough to lift the overall market, with a slump in material, utilities and A-REITs offsetting gains in the information technology and healthcare sectors. The major miners slumped dragging the ASX 200 lower. Picture Newswire/ Gaye Gerard. Credit: News Corp Australia Materials slumped 1.56 per cent on the day with the price of iron ore falling to $US93 a tonne amid sluggish growth forecasts out of China and US steel tariffs. BHP shares fell 1.18 per cent to $36.86, Fortescue slumped 4.02 per cent to $15.03 and Rio Tinto fell 1.07 per cent to $106.00. Citi Group has cut its iron ore price forecasts, predicting $US90 a tonne for both the next three months and the next 6–12 months. ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said a combination of low demand and high supply was seeing the price of the commodity fall. 'The rainy season has slowed construction activity in southern China. In the north, high temperatures are contributing to a slowdown,' he said. 'Beijing's efforts to curb overcapacity in the steel industry looks to be playing out, with China's steel production falling 6.9 per cent in May.' Gold miners were also a drag on the ASX, with the price of the underlying commodity also dropping. Northern Star Resources is down 1.95 per cent to $20.58, Evolution Mining slipped 3.55 per cent to $8.15 and Genesis Mineral slumped 3.00 per cent to $4.53. Despite the ASX falling on Wednesday more stocks finished in the green. NewsWire / Max Mason-Hubers Credit: News Corp Australia It was a mixed day for the big four banks with CBA gaining 0.58 per cent to $180.19 and Westpac eked out a small gain up 0.03 per cent to $33.02. NAB slipped 0.23 per cent to $38.71 and ANZ finished in the red down 1.43 per cent to $29.04. Investors remained on the sidelines, with the ASX now only swinging 59 points or 0.70 per cent during the last two and half days of trading until 2.30pm. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said the average range on the ASX over the past nine weeks has been 165 points or almost 2 per cent. 'This suggests there is room for some fireworks/movement into the week's end as the spring winds become increasingly tighter,' he wrote in a note. In company news, shares in Cettire have rallied 10.5 per cent to $0.32, but comes after shares slumped 31 per cent in a single trading day last week on a less than favourable trading update. Shares in uranium producer Boss Energy rose 4.3 per cent to $4.66 after announcing its operations in South Australia have met its first-year production guidance.
ABC News
3 days ago
- Business
- ABC News
Iron ore is Australia's most valuable export, but China's economic data suggests that's changing
Australia's most valuable export, iron ore, is getting much less valuable as a continued slowdown in Chinese economic activity and strong production from Pilbara and overseas mines work to keep prices flat. Futures contracts for iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange dropped below $94 for the first time since September last year, after economic data from China on Monday showed lower steel output from Chinese mills. Chinese steel production dropped by 6.9 per cent to 86.55 million tonnes in May, following directives from officials to cut production. While the market is not oversupplied yet, ANZ senior commodities analyst Daniel Hynes said iron ore prices aren't expected to lift over the short term. "The fundamentals suggest we're not swimming in a wave of iron at the moment," he said. "So the upper sort of levels that prices can reach are clearly not going to be as high as we've seen in the past." Analysts at S&P Global also pointed to negative market sentiment caused by the trade tensions between the US and China as a source of weakness in the iron ore price in June. Last year, Rio Tinto's iron ore chief executive Simon Trott said China had reached its peak of steel demand. Beyond the peak, there are few signs of hope that anything will replace the voracious demand for steel the residential construction sector had. "Patches of growing demand from energy transition and manufacturing have not been enough to cover up the property slack, and the billion-tonne steel industry is edging toward another shake-up as barbed wires emerge across most trade borders," said Isha Chaudhary, Wood Mackenzie's global head of steel, raw materials and metals. In addition to lower demand, CBA mining and energy economist Vivek Dhar said increasing supply will also weigh on prices. Rio Tinto recently opened its Western Range mine in Paraburdoo, in partnership with China's Baowu Steel Company, which has the capacity to produce 25 million tonnes of iron ore a year. "Brazil 's Vale is adding supply by 2026," Mr Dhar said. "BHP and Rio Tinto have flagged that they're going to add more tonnes as they squeeze more production out of their rail and port assets. "But I think the biggest supply increase is going to come from African supply and in particular Guinea with the Simandou project." The impact of the Simandou project in Guinea is being closely watched by Australia's iron ore industry. The Rio Tinto project, in partnership with the Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) is the largest untapped high-grade iron ore reserve in the world. Its supply of 64 per cent Fe ore is expected to hit the market at the end of the year. At the same time, Platt and Fastmarkets will re-jig their price indices for Australian iron ore from 62 per cent Fe to 61 per cent Fe, to reflect the lower grade of ore coming from the Pilbara. Recently, Fortescue founder Andrew Forrest told the AFR's Mining Conference that the Pilbara was at risk of becoming a wasteland as Chinese steel mills adopted electric arc furnaces that work better with higher-grade iron ore. But Rio Tinto CEO Jakob Stalsholm remains fully confident in the Pilbara as a global supplier of iron ore. "The Pilbara, in aggregate, is the main fuel engine of iron ore for the world, and particularly towards China, and it will be in the future," he said at the opening of the Western Range mine. "It is for us as companies to make sure that the Pilbara ore remains relevant, and how do we do that? We do that in partnership with companies like Baowu, working on how can we decarbonise the supply chain." Mr Dhar said the attractiveness of Simandou's iron ore for green steel making was overplayed. "Even from Simandou, in terms of the current processes to produce green steel, it is still a challenge at 64 per cent Fe. "And so it's not a slam dunk that it's going to be that enormous threat that people talk about to Australian ore."
