Latest news with #CropWatch
Reuters
4 days ago
- Climate
- Reuters
Crop Watch: Divergent pollination outlook for corn: Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. Crop Watch corn fields have notched their third consecutive week of improved health ratings, though some areas still need heat and sun for the crop to really take off. The producers want their corn to be in the best possible state for pollination, a key yield-determining phase. The wide planting window plus cool, limiting temperatures after planting scatter likely pollination dates for the 11 Crop Watch corn fields all throughout July. This means it is too early for a reliable pollination weather forecast and that good conditions now could easily change, come July. As of Sunday, one producer (western Illinois) expected his corn to begin pollination in about two weeks. Three producers (Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska) target the three-week time frame. Four producers (South Dakota, Western Iowa, Eastern Iowa, southeastern Illinois) see their fields pollinating in about a month. Pollination for the remaining three (North Dakota, Minnesota, Ohio) is likely five or more weeks out. Weather-wise, the rest of June is seen as mostly favorable. Warm weather this week will offer a much-needed boost to crops, and a good portion of the Corn Belt has multiple chances for scattered rain showers. Only a couple of producers said that rain is needed somewhat urgently. The others are in a good spot moisture-wise but will be counting on the predicted rains to maintain or improve crop conditions. The 11 Crop Watch producers assign weekly condition scores to their corn and soybean fields using a scale of 1 to 5. The ratings are similar to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's system where 1 is very poor, 3 is average and 5 is excellent. Unweighted, average corn conditions rose to 3.82 from 3.8 a week ago, and that is a better score than at this point last year. Ratings dropped in North Dakota as crops are stalled out in cool, cloudy weather, but the Nebraska and Ohio fields improved this week. The 11-field soybean average comes in at 3.18, easily Crop Watch's worst-ever rating for the week. Ohio joined the ranks this week with a 1, pulling down the average along with North Dakota and southeastern Illinois, both of which also sit in the 1-range. All three of those fields were extremely wet before and after planting, and cool, rainy weather has held back growth. The southeastern Illinois producer places 50% odds on his beans achieving average yields and 0% odds of near-record yields. However, this week's 10-field average soybean rating without Ohio was unchanged on the week at 3.4. Health declines in Western Iowa and North Dakota were offset by improvements in South Dakota, Nebraska and southeastern Illinois. The soybeans in Indiana have begun blooming, which signals the early reproductive phase. However, this will be a long, drawn-out process for the Crop Watch soybeans, and the yield potential will hinge mostly on late-summer rains. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), opens new tab, your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI, opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X., opens new tab
Reuters
09-06-2025
- Climate
- Reuters
Crop Watch: Corn improves again but soybeans still iffy: Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 9 (Reuters) - Health conditions across the U.S. Crop Watch corn and soybean fields began this season at multi-year lows. Recent weather has lent a bump to the corn ratings, though soybean scores remain just so-so overall. However, one of the Illinois Crop Watch soybean fields might qualify as the ugliest the producer has ever seen, placing extra emphasis on the near-term weather outlook. The week ahead could feature an opportunity for improvement to both corn and soybeans, though the temperature outlook may present some limitations. Temperatures across the U.S. Corn Belt last week were mostly below-average and all locations except the Dakotas received at least 1.5 inches (3.8 cm) of rain. The 11-field, average Crop Watch corn condition rose to 3.8 from 3.68 in the prior week. That is above the same week a year ago but below the comparable weeks in the previous three years. However, the 0.23-point increase over the last two weeks is well above a normal two-week delta for Crop Watch corn ratings. Improvement in the latest week was driven by Kansas and the Dakotas. The 11 Crop Watch producers assign weekly condition scores to their corn and soybean fields using a scale of 1 to 5. The ratings are similar to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's system where 1 is very poor, 3 is average and 5 is excellent. Only eight soybean fields were available for conditions last week, averaging 3.56. This week's average of the same eight fields drops to 3.5 on a reduction in southeastern Illinois, which is one of the nation's top soybean-producing regions. That field received over 3 inches of rain last week, piling on to the ample totals from previous weeks. The field conditions stand at 1.5 and the producer describes the situation as follows: 'Cannot stress enough how wet it is, the ground looks slimed.' Excess moisture is also plaguing crops in Ohio. The Crop Watch beans there were planted last Wednesday, though the field has taken 6 inches of rain since, and the plants have not yet emerged. This week, the 10-field average soybean condition score, sans Ohio, stands at 3.4. Aside from troubles in southeastern Illinois and Ohio, Crop Watch beans are looking super-strong in Indiana and western Iowa, and solid in both Kansas and eastern Iowa. Nearly all the Crop Watch producers expressed a desire for some drier conditions in the days ahead, though the forecast as of Monday was mixed on those prospects. They also noted the need for some warmth and sunshine, which is in the forecast for most areas for at least a couple of days this week. Crop Watch producers assessed that the week-ahead weather outlook was more positive than negative. But for some areas, particularly in the northwest Corn Belt, upcoming temperatures may still be a bit too cool. Producers will be watching for how the ongoing Canadian wildfire smoke might impact crop growth, as the particles can block much-needed solar radiation and potentially lead to cooler-than-expected temperatures. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), opens new tab, your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI, opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X., opens new tab
Reuters
02-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Crop Watch: Corn improves but soy health is lacking
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 2 (Reuters) - Although not all fields have emerged, U.S. Crop Watch soybean conditions are starting out on their worst note in at least five years, similar to the corn ratings a week ago. Only eight of the 11 Crop Watch soybean fields are available for rating this week, and the unweighted average condition score comes in at 3.56. That compares with a range of 3.75 to 3.91 for the same eight fields at this point in the past three seasons, and a 4.34 in 2021. The Crop Watch producers each week assign condition scores to their corn and soybean fields using a scale of 1 to 5. The ratings are similar to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's system where 1 is very poor, 3 is average and 5 is excellent. However, the Crop Watch condition scores are mostly visual in nature and do not incorporate yield assumptions. No bean scores are available this week in Kansas and North Dakota given the very recent planting dates. The Ohio beans are expected to be sown this week, and the producer has no concerns over this later timing. Crop Watch conditions are in the 2-range for soy fields in southeastern Illinois and South Dakota, the latter of which was replanted on Sunday. Although the eastern Iowa beans currently score a 4, the producer notes a lot of replanting in the area with very thin plants. USDA on Monday afternoon will issue its first U.S. soybean conditions of the season, and the Crop Watch results could suggest that upside is limited. This happened last week with USDA's corn ratings, which were the lowest initial conditions since 2019. This week, the 11-field, average Crop Watch corn condition score rose to 3.68 from 3.57 last week, which had been the lowest start for Crop Watch corn ratings in at least five years. Corn health improved notably in South Dakota and slightly in both Nebraska and western Iowa. Corn in all three locations had been battered by wind, hail, frost, rains and heat in the latter part of May. The past week started unseasonably cool for most of the Corn Belt except for North Dakota. Nebraska, Kansas and Ohio were the only locations that had notable rainfall last week out of the 11 Crop Watch areas. Warmth arrived for some of the fields over the weekend, though the Crop Watch producers were mixed when asked if last week's weather helped the crops or held them back. Most producers still want some heat for both corn and beans, but the week ahead will mostly feature milder temperatures. This could still allow for some improvement in crop conditions if the accompanying rainfall is not excessive, though the forecast suggests larger totals are possible in the central Corn Belt. U.S. spring wheat conditions came in shockingly low last week, though the North Dakota producer says that wheat in his east-central location improved over the last week with the dryness and warmth. Analysts expect U.S. spring wheat conditions on Monday afternoon to rise to 47% good-to-excellent (GE) from 45% last week. Corn is seen improving to 69% GE from 68% last week. U.S. soybean conditions are predicted to come in at 68% GE, equivalent to the five-year average for initial bean ratings. Those initial scores ranged from 62% to 72%, leaving some leeway for this year's number. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
Zawya
30-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
What to make of surprisingly low US crop ratings: Braun
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.) NAPERVILLE, Illinois - The U.S. corn crop has gotten off to a somewhat disappointing start in what is supposed to be a record producing season. Meanwhile, U.S. spring wheat is experiencing its second-worst start to the growing season in history after this year's plantings dropped to a 55-year low. What might these early figures mean for the growing season overall? How do they compare with past years? And where are the problem spots and near-term prospects for improvement? SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday afternoon rated 68% of the U.S. corn crop in good-to-excellent (GE) condition in this season's initial rating, marking the lowest starting health since 2019. That was well below analysts' average estimate of 73% GE, though initial condition reports from the Crop Watch producers over the weekend averaged out to a six-year low, at least. A 68% GE is not all that bad. On average over the last three years, the initial U.S. corn score comes in around 72%. Additionally, the slower start may be explainable. The unanimous feedback from the Crop Watch producers was that it has been too cold, cloudy and rainy, and the plants are not growing quickly. Hail, frosts, wind, rain and even a period of excessive heat recently stressed crops in the western Corn Belt, which was reported by Crop Watchers. This showed up in USDA's data on Tuesday. Averaging initial corn conditions by state over the past three years, North Dakota and Ohio stand out. North Dakota at 48% GE is 24 percentage points below average and Ohio's 41% is 37 points below. Conditions in top producer Iowa are 4 percentage points ahead of normal, Illinois is 7 points behind, South Dakota is down 16 points, Nebraska is down 2 points and Minnesota is 4 points behind. OK OUTLOOK? Three factors may help ease any concerns about current U.S. corn crop health. The corn crop is only two-thirds emerged nationally, a lower-than-usual portion to coincide with the first condition scores. This allows for some play in the near-term figures, as newly emerged crops, if in good shape, could boost the overall score next week. Although not necessarily unusual, less than 40% of corn in Ohio and North Dakota was emerged as of Sunday, possibly allowing for future improvement. All Crop Watch producers last weekend expressed the dire need for heat and sun, and that should start arriving over the weekend after this week finishes out on the cooler, cloudy side. The pattern might not necessarily be long-lasting, but even a short, warm, sunny spell in early June can go a long way for early crop growth. U.S. corn was initially rated 65% GE in 2017, and calculations at the time pointed to near or below-trend yield probabilities. This caused the market to misjudge the crop potential all year, and the 2017 corn crop achieved a new record yield. The 2017 crop was rated 60% GE by the end of July, not too huge of a change from the initial. So even though 60% would not be considered stellar by itself, the lack of large rating swings that season may have been telling. WHEAT WOES U.S. spring wheat was rated 45% GE as of Sunday, tied with 2021 as the second-lowest initial rating over the 40-year history. The worst was 34% in 1988. Those two years are bad company, as they featured well-below-trend U.S. spring wheat yields as both seasons included drought. The 2025 crop is already starting in the hole as U.S. farmers intend to plant their smallest spring wheat area since 1970. Some 60% of U.S. spring wheat was emerged by Sunday, comparable to 66% on the same date in 2021. North Dakota, which produces half of the U.S. spring wheat crop, must remain on watch as only 37% of the wheat there is GE and 26% is considered poor or very poor. Recent cold and wet weather has battered the young wheat crop, so the coming flip to better weather may offer improvement opportunities. Market analysts had expected the initial spring wheat conditions to come in at 71% GE, so the result was much more shocking than the one for corn. But the lighter figures for both certainly set up the potential for market scares this summer if an unfavorable weather pattern were to set in. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. (Writing by Karen Braun Editing by Matthew Lewis)
Reuters
28-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
What to make of surprisingly low US crop ratings: Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. corn crop has gotten off to a somewhat disappointing start in what is supposed to be a record producing season. Meanwhile, U.S. spring wheat is experiencing its second-worst start to the growing season in history after this year's plantings dropped to a 55-year low. What might these early figures mean for the growing season overall? How do they compare with past years? And where are the problem spots and near-term prospects for improvement? The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday afternoon rated 68% of the U.S. corn crop in good-to-excellent (GE) condition in this season's initial rating, marking the lowest starting health since 2019. That was well below analysts' average estimate of 73% GE, though initial condition reports from the Crop Watch producers, opens new tab over the weekend averaged out to a six-year low, at least. A 68% GE is not all that bad. On average over the last three years, the initial U.S. corn score comes in around 72%. Additionally, the slower start may be explainable. The unanimous feedback from the Crop Watch producers was that it has been too cold, cloudy and rainy, and the plants are not growing quickly. Hail, frosts, wind, rain and even a period of excessive heat recently stressed crops in the western Corn Belt, which was reported by Crop Watchers. This showed up in USDA's data on Tuesday. Averaging initial corn conditions by state over the past three years, North Dakota and Ohio stand out. North Dakota at 48% GE is 24 percentage points below average and Ohio's 41% is 37 points below. Conditions in top producer Iowa are 4 percentage points ahead of normal, Illinois is 7 points behind, South Dakota is down 16 points, Nebraska is down 2 points and Minnesota is 4 points behind. Three factors may help ease any concerns about current U.S. corn crop health. The corn crop is only two-thirds emerged nationally, a lower-than-usual portion to coincide with the first condition scores. This allows for some play in the near-term figures, as newly emerged crops, if in good shape, could boost the overall score next week. Although not necessarily unusual, less than 40% of corn in Ohio and North Dakota was emerged as of Sunday, possibly allowing for future improvement. All Crop Watch producers last weekend expressed the dire need for heat and sun, and that should start arriving over the weekend after this week finishes out on the cooler, cloudy side. The pattern might not necessarily be long-lasting, but even a short, warm, sunny spell in early June can go a long way for early crop growth. U.S. corn was initially rated 65% GE in 2017, and calculations at the time pointed to near or below-trend yield probabilities. This caused the market to misjudge the crop potential all year, and the 2017 corn crop achieved a new record yield. The 2017 crop was rated 60% GE by the end of July, not too huge of a change from the initial. So even though 60% would not be considered stellar by itself, the lack of large rating swings that season may have been telling. U.S. spring wheat was rated 45% GE as of Sunday, tied with 2021 as the second-lowest initial rating over the 40-year history. The worst was 34% in 1988. Those two years are bad company, as they featured well-below-trend U.S. spring wheat yields as both seasons included drought. The 2025 crop is already starting in the hole as U.S. farmers intend to plant their smallest spring wheat area since 1970. Some 60% of U.S. spring wheat was emerged by Sunday, comparable to 66% on the same date in 2021. North Dakota, which produces half of the U.S. spring wheat crop, must remain on watch as only 37% of the wheat there is GE and 26% is considered poor or very poor. Recent cold and wet weather has battered the young wheat crop, so the coming flip to better weather may offer improvement opportunities. Market analysts had expected the initial spring wheat conditions to come in at 71% GE, so the result was much more shocking than the one for corn. But the lighter figures for both certainly set up the potential for market scares this summer if an unfavorable weather pattern were to set in. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
