Latest news with #Cronk
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Americans' views on inflation are finally turning a corner
Consumers' expectations for inflation dropped in May for the first time in 2025. CPI data has been steadily improving, but sentiment readings have lagged the hard data. Improved consumer sentiment could boost markets and help prevent a recession. Americans are finally starting to feel less anxious about inflation. Consumer price index data showed inflation cooled in May. That comes alongside a brightening of inflation expectations in the latest survey data. This embedded content is not available in your region. The New York Fed's survey of consumer expectations, published on Monday, showed that consumers' forward-looking inflation outlook declined in May for the first time this year. The median one-year-ahead inflation expectation decreased, dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2%. Three-year-ahead and five-year-ahead inflation expectations also declined, falling from 3.2% to 3.0% and from 2.7% to 2.6%, respectively. The survey marks a turning point in the gap between "soft" and "hard" economic data, with the vibes in the economy starting to more closely align with the facts on the ground. Inflation and labor market data have been looking more and more upbeat, but forward-looking gauges like inflation expectations and consumer sentiment have headed in the opposite direction. Last Friday's jobs report also showed higher-than-anticipated job creation and unemployment levels hovering near historic lows. Yet, May's University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading plunged to from 52.2 to 50.8, the second-lowest reading ever recorded. Wall Street has been more focused on the hard data. May was a strong month for markets as slowing inflation and US-China trade relations led stocks to recover their Liberation Day losses. Recession expectations have come down from 60% to as low as 30% among some forecasters. As stocks continue to gain after April's peak tariff volatility, strategists are also recalibrating their inflation expectations. While inflation could spike later this summer, as it could take three months or more for retailers to pass on tariff-related price increases to consumers, Goldman Sachs believes inflation will only see a temporary uptick from tariffs in 2025 before heading back down in 2026. Now, it seems like consumers are finally getting on the same page. In addition to the improved inflation outlook reported by the New York Fed, the Consumer Confidence Index rebounded, increasing 12.3 points in May to 98.0 — its first increase after falling for five consecutive months. Goldman Sachs said that for past event-driven recessions, soft data has usually bottomed around 60 days after a catalyst. As Liberation Day moves further into the rearview, Americans appear to be adjusting their economic outlooks. Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer of Wells Fargo, echoed this perspective. "What people forget is that sentiment is a reflection of what has happened already, not what will happen in the future," Cronk said during the bank's midyear outlook conference on Tuesday. More optimistic sentiment could be a tailwind for markets, according to Goldman Sachs. Pessimistic consumers have pulled back on spending, especially in discretionary categories like airfare and travel. With consumer spending making up roughly two-thirds of GDP, sentiment improvement could help prevent a recession and boost markets. Read the original article on Business Insider
Business Insider
11-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Americans' views on inflation are finally turning a corner
Americans are finally starting to feel less anxious about inflation. Consumer price index data showed inflation cooled in May. That comes alongside a brightening of inflation expectations in the latest survey data. The New York Fed's survey of consumer expectations, published on Monday, showed that consumers' forward-looking inflation outlook declined in May for the first time this year. The median one-year-ahead inflation expectation decreased, dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2%. Three-year-ahead and five-year-ahead inflation expectations also declined, falling from 3.2% to 3.0% and from 2.7% to 2.6%, respectively. The survey marks a turning point in the gap between "soft" and "hard" economic data, with the vibes in the economy starting to more closely align with the facts on the ground. Inflation and labor market data have been looking more and more upbeat, but forward-looking gauges like inflation expectations and consumer sentiment have headed in the opposite direction. Last Friday's jobs report also showed higher-than-anticipated job creation and unemployment levels hovering near historic lows. Yet, May's University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading plunged to from 52.2 to 50.8, the second-lowest reading ever recorded. Consumers are catching up to Wall Street Wall Street has been more focused on the hard data. May was a strong month for markets as slowing inflation and US-China trade relations led stocks to recover their Liberation Day losses. Recession expectations have come down from 60% to as low as 30% among some forecasters. As stocks continue to gain after April's peak tariff volatility, strategists are also recalibrating their inflation expectations. While inflation could spike later this summer, as it could take three months or more for retailers to pass on tariff-related price increases to consumers, Goldman Sachs believes inflation will only see a temporary uptick from tariffs in 2025 before heading back down in 2026. Now, it seems like consumers are finally getting on the same page. In addition to the improved inflation outlook reported by the New York Fed, the Consumer Confidence Index rebounded, increasing 12.3 points in May to 98.0 — its first increase after falling for five consecutive months. Goldman Sachs said that for past event-driven recessions, soft data has usually bottomed around 60 days after a catalyst. As Liberation Day moves further into the rearview, Americans appear to be adjusting their economic outlooks. Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer of Wells Fargo, echoed this perspective. "What people forget is that sentiment is a reflection of what has happened already, not what will happen in the future," Cronk said during the bank's midyear outlook conference on Tuesday. More optimistic sentiment could be a tailwind for markets, according to Goldman Sachs. Pessimistic consumers have pulled back on spending, especially in discretionary categories like airfare and travel.
CNBC
11-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Wells Fargo says tariffs to hold back stocks this year, but then sees new highs in 2026
This year could be a washout for the stock market thanks to lofty tariffs, but 2026 could mark a return to new highs, according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. President Donald Trump's tariffs will continue to limit upside for equities this year, as corporate earnings come under pressure from higher inflation, constrained profit margins and a slower economy, but investors can start positioning for a recovery that's likely to come next year, wrote Darrell Cronk, president of the investment institute. "Significantly surpassing the equity-market highs reached early this year has likely been delayed by the tariff-related hit to consumer and business sentiment along with the imminent economic slowdown that we expect," Cronk wrote. "Without a recession, we believe the risk of further equity-market downside — beyond lows reached in April — is likely limited while upside reward potential is significant by year-end 2026," he added. .VIX YTD mountain Volatility Index (VIX), year to date. The reasoning behind the Wells Fargo thesis is this: Positive forces expected later this year, such as tax cuts and lower interest rates, in addition to lower oil prices, should offset some of the pressure from higher tariffs, helping the U.S. avoid a recession. What's more, Cronk noted that volatility historically occurs near market bottoms. In 10 comparable periods in the past, he said, when the VIX Index topped 40, the median 18-month forward return for the S & P 500 was 30%. The VIX topped 50 at one point during the April selloff and was last trading above 16. "In real time, the uncertainties can feel so large that it is difficult to look past them, but also in each case households and businesses adjusted, and generally, returns soon followed," he wrote. "In sum, the new tariffs are significant, and uncertainty may persist for some months to come," he continued. "However, we would follow the lesson of history and lean into equities." While near-term returns may remain muted, investors should "lean into the recovery" by allocating toward quality companies, Cronk said. He prefers U.S. large caps and U.S. midcaps, anticipating the U.S. will maintain its status as the global leader both economically and, by extension, in stocks. He also said he favors developed markets excluding the U.S. over emerging markets. "We view further periods of volatility as an opportunity to lean into equities to position for the gains we expect through 2026," Cronk said.
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- General
- Yahoo
Not your typical classroom: Students further careers at 100th FAA Convention
GEDDES, N.Y. (WSYR-TV) — For thousands of students, the end of the school week was at the New York State Fairgrounds, learning at the 100 annual Future Farmers of America (FAA) convention. From across the country, students gathered and connected over their shared passion for agriculture. One of the students is 16-year-old Daphne Cronk, who has been raising poultry since she was three years old. 'I am obsessed with them, and I've been collecting poultry. I am hatching geese, I am hatching ducks, I am getting a pond, I have over 30 chickens, so it's something I enjoy doing,' said Cronk. Not your typical classroom: Students further careers at 100th FAA Convention Local priest shares personal connection with Pope Leo XIV Regional Market funding not included in the state budget Seneca Falls man arrested for threatening police and assault See 'Beetlejuice' on Thursday at the Landmark and support the United Way of CNY Her day is unlike most of her classmates'; she wakes up around 5 a.m. and heads to her coop, where the 16-year-old, 'enough feed, enough water, make sure everything is clean because chickens have a tendency to get their feet infected…they're a little touch.' In addition to her coop, Cronk is leading other students in her local FFA chapter while planning her future, which includes teaching and writing. 'I also want to do some journalism, and I will use that to do some agriculture advocacy so I can spread the word about how important agriculture education is and other topics I see in the ag industry,' said Cronk. The topics she wants to cover aren't as soft as her chickens. One is how hard it is for farmers to make a living, stating that 40% of farmers have other jobs. 'If we want to have a sustainable ag system, we need to pay our producers enough to put food on our tables, without producers, we don't eat.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Is Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS) the Best Oversold NASDAQ Stock to Buy Right Now?
We recently published a list of 11 Oversold NASDAQ Stocks to Buy Right Now. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Agilysys, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGYS) stands against other oversold NASDAQ stocks to buy right now. On April 28, Darrell Cronk, Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management CIO, appeared on CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss market outlooks and what investors should look at in the current market circumstances. He opined that it is growth that investors should be worried about, not inflation. Cronk was of the view that the market will likely see better buying/entry opportunities in the coming weeks, and so it is essential to be careful when chasing equities too hard. There is a growing divide between sentiment and positioning, as we live in a geopolitical-first world where the rules of the game can change with stunning speed. Cronk further opined that many people overlook a key fact about tariffs, solely focusing on their inflationary nature. While tariffs are inflationary, they are blunt-force resets in prices and are not sustained inflationary. So, although companies need to be able to absorb the blunt force reset of prices and impact of margins, it's not like one continues to see the rate of change of inflation move meaningfully higher up from years one to two, three, and four. This trend only emerges when tariffs move meaningfully higher up over a period of time. READ ALSO: Recession Resistant Investing: 10 Best Grocery Stocks To Buy Now and 10 Best Stocks That Will Always Grow. Cronk also talked about how the president has been screaming at the Fed to slash interest rates. But it's not just the president; the bond market is doing the same. Fed cuts over a period of time are essential. However, according to Cronk, if the Fed shows up tomorrow and announces an emergency cut of sorts, markets wouldn't perceive it so well. The markets would take it as the Fed knowing something they do not, and the growth scare would grow more pervasive and problematic. This is why the Fed has to be careful about how they act. The Fed appears to be more concerned about inflation, and it has been consistent in that. If they switched to more growth concerns than inflation concerns, the markets would perceive them as more dovish. He said that we just saw the Fed's president saying that June could be on the table for a possible rate cut. The Fed is thus starting to lay the groundwork, and we would have to see how that narrative turns out. If it takes a more dovish approach, markets would perceive that in a well-timed, thoughtful way. Since April 1, nine of the eleven S&P gig sectors have revised their guidance lower. The problem is that out of the 20%- 25% of the reported earnings that the market has seen right now, less than 20% of them have been willing to give forward guidance. Therefore, Cronk highlighted that the guidance suspension is obviously problematic and important here. The market thus needs consumer discretionary stocks and industrials to hold up and tech to deliver. We used stock screeners to compile a list of NASDAQ stocks that experienced significant YTD performance declines. We then selected the 11 stocks with the highest analyst upside potential as of April 29, 2025. We also added the number of hedge fund holders for these stocks as of Q4 2024, sourcing hedge fund data from Insider Monkey's database. The list is sorted in ascending order of the upside potential. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter's strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 363.5% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 208 percentage points (). An expert IT engineer demonstrating a new software solution to hotel managers in a Inc. (NASDAQ:AGYS) provides hospitality software delivering cloud-native software-as-a-service (SaaS) and on-premises solutions for cruise lines and other sectors, including hotels, resorts, restaurants, stadiums, corporate food service management, and more. The company offers innovative software for various purposes, including inventory and procurement, document management, payment gateway, reservation and table management, and more. It also serves the gaming industry for cruise lines and other sectors, and ranks 11th on our list of the top oversold NASDAQ stocks to buy right now. Analysts have bullish sentiments for the stock. On April 28, Craig-Hallum analyst George Sutton maintained a Buy rating on Agilysys, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGYS). Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz also maintained a Buy rating on the company on April 9, setting a $90.00 price target. In addition, Needham analyst Mayank Tandon reiterated a Buy rating on Agilysys, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGYS) on March 5, setting a price target of $100.00 and saying it has a positive outlook. The analyst told investors in a research note that the company has the potential to overcome current headwinds in its point-of-sale sales and services revenue, which they consider to be temporary headwinds. The analyst expects growth to rebound to its usual trends within two to three quarters. The firm provided various other reasons to support their bullish stance on the stock, saying that Agilysys, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGYS) is well-positioned in the considerable $16 billion total addressable market with leading products in point-of-sale solutions and property management systems for the hospitality sector. It has also bolstered its sales leadership team, which the analyst expects will support over a 25% sustained organic subscription revenue growth rate per annum and expanding EBITDA margins. Overall, AGYS ranks 11th on our list of oversold NASDAQ stocks to buy right now. While we acknowledge the potential for AGYS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AGYS but trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Sign in to access your portfolio
