Latest news with #CopernicusClimateChangeService
CBC
21 hours ago
- Science
- CBC
After the puzzling warmth of Earth in 2023 and 2024, what could 2025 have in store?
After 12 consecutive months with temperatures 1.5 C above the 1850-1900 average, Earth's temperature has now fallen — thanks in part to the end of a natural cycle. According to Berkeley Earth, a non-profit climate analysis organization, the global average temperature was 1.33 C above the pre-industrial average in the month of May, and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS) found that the monthly average was 1.40 C above the pre-industrial average. (Climate agencies around the world use different methods to analyze global temperatures, hence the difference). While that may seem like good news, the fact is that 2025 is still on track to be one of the top three warmest years on record, according to Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth. "With El Niño being firmly over, it is very unlikely at this point that 2025 is going to set a new record, but I still think it's the odds-on favourite to be the second-warmest on record, and it is virtually certain to be a top three warmest year," Hausfather said. El Niño, a natural, cyclical warming in a region of the Pacific Ocean that, coupled with the atmosphere, can cause global temperatures to rise, began in the middle of 2023 and then peaked in 2024, which could account for some of the record warmth that puzzled climate scientists. What was particularly interesting about the month of May is that land surface temperatures dropped quite a bit compared to the months prior. However, it was still the second warmest on record, after 2024. Hausfather said the sharp drop could have been some "internal variability" that had kept the land surface temperatures elevated and that perhaps last month was a result of the end of that variability. An important thing to also keep in mind when it comes to what we can expect in terms of 2025 making the record books, winter is when we see the greatest temperature anomalies, Hausfather said. So that could push 2025 even higher than what we're seeing now. On the road to warming trend of 1.5 C Ocean temperatures have decreased in part due the end of El Niño, but remain near record highs. In May, the average ocean temperatures were 0.99 C above the 1850-1900 average, according to Berkeley Earth. "At the moment, we are seeing, or we have just seen, a significant ocean heat wave in the North Atlantic," said Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). "[Ocean temperatures are] cooler than last year and the previous one, but it's warmer than any other years we have in the record. So this is one of these things where it depends [whether] we like to see the glass half full or half empty. It's still a very warm ocean." Though Earth did hit a 12-month average of 1.5 C, that doesn't necessarily mean failure on the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming below a threshold of 1.5 C. That would have to happen over a longer period, though there is no set timeframe set out in the agreement. Climate is looked at over long periods, typically spanning 20 or 30 years. Carbon budget running out However, a study published on Wednesday in the journal Earth System Science Data, found that — if emissions continue at 2024 rates — we have only three years until we exhaust our carbon budget to keep warming below that 1.5 C threshold. "Record-high greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly narrowing the chance of limiting warming to 1.5 C," Joeri Rogelj, professor of climate science and policy at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London and co-author of the report, said in a statement. "The window to stay within 1.5°C is rapidly closing. Global warming is already affecting the lives of billions of people around the world." Though the that threshold may be breached, climate scientists like to stress that every tenth of a degree matters. But to keep warming below 2 C — the threshold initially set by the Paris Agreement — there needs to be a concerted effort to drastically cut CO2 emissions, as Antonio Gutteres, secretary-general of the United Nations, has continually stressed. Buontempo said that he's hopeful that the tools we have today will at least help us deal with dealing with the outcomes of rising temperatures. "I'm an optimist. I've always been an optimist, and my feeling is that, you know, there are plenty of positives in this terrible situation, including the fact that we never had so much information about our planet," Buontempo said.
Hindustan Times
12-06-2025
- Science
- Hindustan Times
Arctic heatwave shatters Greenland, Iceland records; could hit monsoons
New Delhi : A record-shattering heatwave that sent Greenland's ice sheet melting at 17 times the normal rate was made 3°C hotter by the climate crisis, scientists said in an analysis on Wednesday, amid new data that also showed the past month to be second-warmest May on record. The World Weather Attribution analysis concluded that the seven-day period of extreme heat in Iceland was about 3°C hotter due to climate change. Similar events could become a further 2°C more intense if global warming reaches 2.6°C, scientists warned. The findings matched with data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service showing May this year to be the second-warmest globally on record, with an average surface air temperature of 15.79°C — 0.53°C above the 1991-2020 average. The month was 1.4°C above the pre-industrial level and interrupted an extended 21-month phase of global temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, the 12-month period from June 2024 to May 2025 remained 1.57°C above pre-industrial levels, the climate service said. In eastern Greenland, the hottest day in May was about 3.9°C warmer compared to the pre-industrial climate, the World Weather Attribution analysis found. The climate-driven heat corresponded with melting of the Greenland ice sheet that was approximately 17 times higher than average for the period, according to preliminary analysis from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. 'This event is the largest May heatwave we have seen, even in weather stations going back more than a century,' said Halldór Björnsson, group leader at the Icelandic Meteorological Office. The arctic circle climate phenomenon holds implications far beyond the polar region. Recent scientific papers have found that loss of Arctic ice can impact the South Asian monsoon, and it is linked to a rise in extreme rainfall events over South Asia. In Iceland's automated monitoring system, which has operated for two to three decades, 94% of stations recorded new temperature records. At Stykkisholmur, which has reliable data spanning more than 174 years, temperature records were broken. 'What we are witnessing is not just an isolated event, but a change in weather statistics,' Björnsson added. The Arctic region has warmed at more than double the global average in a phenomenon known as arctic amplification. This rapid warming is driven mainly by melting sea ice — as ice vanishes, it is replaced by expanding areas of dark ocean water that absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it. The early spring heat could impact people in Iceland with underlying health issues, while thinning sea ice threatens the safety and livelihoods of indigenous communities in Greenland, the analysis highlighted. Climate change, caused primarily by burning fossil fuels, intensified the temperatures through carbon emissions that heat the planet. If warming reaches 2.6°C — expected by 2100 unless countries rapidly move away from oil, gas and coal — similar heatwaves are expected to become worse. In May, sea surface temperatures remained unusually high across many ocean basins. Large areas in the northeast North Atlantic experienced a marine heatwave with record-high temperatures for the month. Most of the Mediterranean Sea was much warmer than average. Implications for India Research published in IOPScience on May 6 found that rapid Arctic sea-ice decline will lead to increased intense precipitation events across South Asia, exposing populations to disasters associated with extreme rain. Scientists from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and the ministry of earth sciences investigated tropical rainfall responses to declining Arctic sea ice using observations and climate model simulations. The study suggested that intense rain events like those recorded during Kerala's 2018 floods or Uttarakhand in 2013 will increase in frequency. Both events exceeded the threshold of 150mm rainfall per day over small areas that defines extreme rainfall events. The IOPScience research found observational evidence that periods with higher intense precipitation events — or spells of heavy rain — in South Asia are associated with declining June, July and August Arctic sea ice. Larger increases in extreme precipitation in recent decades often coincide with greater Arctic sea-ice loss. 'Observational evidence and idealised model experiments in which the Arctic becomes seasonally ice-free under greenhouse warming reveal association between Arctic sea-ice decline and intense precipitation events over South Asia,' the study concluded. The enhanced Arctic sea-ice melt increases mid-latitude atmospheric patterns and intensifies circulation that strengthens subtropical high-pressure systems over East Asia. Combined with La Niña-like responses in the Pacific, this enhances mean summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia. 'Arctic sea-ice decline weakens upper atmospheric circulation and alters energetics, providing a favourable environment for moisture convergence and intense monsoon precipitation,' researchers concluded. 'As Arctic warming accelerates under greenhouse gas forcing, extreme precipitation events over South Asia are projected to increase.' La Niña refers to large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in tropical atmospheric circulation including winds, pressure and rainfall. In India, La Niña is associated with strong monsoons, above-average rains and colder winters, whilst El Niño brings harsher summers and weaker monsoons. 'There is now growing evidence that arctic sea ice melting can have a serious impact on Indian monsoon. Both observations and model simulations suggest this relationship. It will affect both the mean and extremes. The pathways are through mid latitude atmospheric waves and increase in El Nino southern oscillation frequency,' M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences said responding to the MoES-led study.
Nahar Net
11-06-2025
- Climate
- Nahar Net
May 2025 second warmest on record
by Naharnet Newsdesk 11 June 2025, 14:03 Global heating continued as the new norm, with last month the second warmest May on record on land and in the oceans, according to the European Union's climate monitoring service. The planet's average surface temperature dipped below the threshold of 1.5 degree Celsius above preindustrial levels, just shy of the record for May set last year, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
eNCA
11-06-2025
- Science
- eNCA
May 2025 second warmest on record: EU climate monitor
PARIS - Global heating continued as the new norm, with last month the second warmest May on record on land and in the oceans, according to the European Union's climate monitoring service. The planet's average surface temperature dipped below the threshold of 1.5 degree Celsius above preindustrial levels, just shy of the record for May set last year, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The same held for the world's oceans. With a surface temperature of 20.79C, last month was second only to May 2024, with some unprecedented warmth regionally. "Large areas in the northeast North Atlantic, which experienced a marine heatwave, had record surface temperatures for the month," Copernicus reported. "Most of the Mediterranean Sea was much warmer than average." The increasingly dire state of the oceans is front-and-centre at the third UN Ocean Conference (UNOC), which kicked off Monday in Nice, France. Ocean heatwaves are driving marine species to migrate, damaging ecosystems, and reducing the ability of ocean layers to mix, thus hindering the distribution of nutrients. Covering 70 percent of the globe's surface, oceans redistribute heat and play a crucial role in regulating Earth's climate. Surface water warmed by climate change drive increasingly powerful storms, causing new levels of destruction and flooding in their wake. Some parts of Europe, meanwhile, "experienced their lowest levels of precipitation and soil moisture since at least 1979," Copernicus noted. Britain has been in the grips of its most intense drought in decades, with Denmark and the Netherlands also suffering from a lack of rain. Earth's surface last month was 1.4C above the preindustrial benchmark, defined as the average temperature from 1850 to 1900, before the massive use of fossil fuels caused the climate to dramatically warm. "May 2025 interrupts an unprecedentedly long sequence of months above 1.5C," noted Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. All but one of the previous 22 months crossed this critical threshold, which marks the 2015 Paris Agreement's most ambitious target for capping global warming. "This may offer a brief respite for the planet, but we expect the 1.5C threshold to be exceeded again in the near future due to the continued warming of the climate system," he added.
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
May 2025 second warmest on record: EU climate monitor
Global heating persisted as the new norm, with last month the second warmest May on record on land and in the oceans, according to the European Union's climate monitoring service. The planet's average surface temperature dipped below the threshold of 1.5 degree Celsius above preindustrial levels, just shy of the record for May set last year, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The same held for the world's oceans. With a surface temperature of 20.79C, last month was second only to May 2024, with some unprecedented warmth regionally. "Large areas in the northeast North Atlantic, which experienced a marine heatwave, had record surface temperatures for the month," Copernicus reported. "Most of the Mediterranean Sea was much warmer than average." The increasingly dire state of the oceans is front-and-centre at the third UN Ocean Conference (UNOC), which kicked off Monday in Nice, France. Ocean heatwaves are driving marine species to migrate, decimating coral reefs, damaging ecosystems, and reducing the ability of ocean layers to mix, which hinders the distribution of nutrients. Covering 70 percent of the globe's surface, oceans redistribute heat and play a crucial role in regulating Earth's climate. Surface water warmed by climate change drive increasingly powerful storms, causing new levels of destruction and flooding in their wake. Some parts of Europe, meanwhile, "experienced their lowest levels of precipitation and soil moisture since at least 1979", Copernicus noted. Britain has been in the grips of its most intense drought in decades, with Denmark and the Netherlands also suffering from a lack of rain. Persistent dry conditions have also led to the lowest spring river flow across Europe since records began in 1992. - 'Brief respite' - Boreal forests across Canada, northern Europe and Siberia saw the second warmest spring on record, fuelling forest fires in Canada where two provinces declared a state of emergency. Ten days into June, more than 220 actives fires burned across the country, half of them classified as out-of-control. Earth's surface last month was 1.4C above the preindustrial benchmark, defined as the average temperature from 1850 to 1900, before the massive use of fossil fuels caused the climate to dramatically warm. "May 2025 interrupts an unprecedentedly long sequence of months above 1.5C," noted Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. All but one of the previous 22 months crossed this critical threshold, which marks the 2015 Paris Agreement's most ambitious target for capping global warming. "This may offer a brief respite for the planet, but we expect the 1.5C threshold to be exceeded again in the near future due to the continued warming of the climate system," he added. Over the 12-month period June 2024 to May 2025, warming averaged 1.57C compared to the 1850-1900 benchmark. The Paris treaty target, however, is pegged to a 20-year average, in order to account for the influence of natural variability. The UN's climate science advisory panel, the IPCC, has said there is a 50 percent chance of breaching the 1.5C barrier in line with these criteria between 2030 and 2035. Using this method of calculation, the world today has warmed by at least 1.3C. The UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO), meanwhile, has said there is a 70 percent chance the five-year period 2025-2029, on average, will exceed the 1.5C limit. Scientists stress the importance of limiting global warming as soon and as much as possible because every fraction of a degree increases the risks of more deadly and destructive impacts, on land and in the sea. Limiting warming to 1.5C rather than 2C would significantly reduce the most catastrophic consequences, the IPCC concluded in a major report in 2018. jmi/mh/phz/giv
