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2 days ago
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Trump's decision on whether to bomb Iran could have knock-on effects for his fight against the Fed
With the Fed's interest rate decision out of the way and a national holiday for the U.S. stock markets, investors are turning their attention to whether President Trump will bomb Iran. Stocks were largely down in Asia and Europe this morning, following a decline in the S&P 500 yesterday. The human cost of global conflict is unbearable for the victims, of course, and it comes with an economic cost too, which analysts are trying to estimate right now. President Trump has reportedly approved a plan to bomb Iran but not yet given the green light for action. The main issue for investors is what the Iran conflict might do to the price of oil and how that will affect the strength of the dollar. That, in turn, will likely influence the U.S. Federal Reserve's future decisions on whether or not to cut interest rates. Trump, of course, wants Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates. He insulted Powell early this morning on Truth Social to underline that point: 'Too Late—Powell is the WORST. A real dummy, who's costing America $Billions!' One possible outcome is that if Trump decides to bomb Iran and the conflict produces a prolonged disruption to the supply of oil, that might strengthen the dollar while damaging the global economy. (Oil markets are settled in dollars, and rising oil prices would thus trigger greater demand for U.S. currency.) Those two factors—economic weakness but dollar strength—could push the Fed to make the interest rate cuts that Trump wants. Convera's Antonio Ruggiero sent a note to clients on the dollar issue this morning: 'Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East this week lent support to the greenback, with the DXY briefly pushing above 98.800 on Tuesday before paring gains. Behind the façade of safe-haven appeal lies the true driver of the dollar's rebound: rising oil prices, now hovering near a five-month high. Since most global oil trades are settled in U.S. dollars, surging crude demand tends to drive additional demand for USD. This rebound in sentiment is also reflected in the options market, where—for the first time since April—traders have backed off from bearish dollar positions. Escalating tensions could amplify this further.' At JPMorgan, Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman published a note that argued: 'The rise in risk premia associated with the Mideast war, if sustained, is already sufficient to fully offset the cushion provided by the oil supply increase [from Saudi Arabia]. This leaves a net drag on global GDP growth of 0.6% this year. Concentrated in the second half, this drag should lower 2H25 global GDP growth by more than 1% at an annualized pace,' they said. 'A full curtailment of Iranian oil exports (1.8mbd) would, according to our model, lift oil prices to near $100/bbl and, if sustained, reduce global GDP by a full %-point (or, more likely, 2%-point annualized in 2H25), threatening a global recession,' they said. The Fed, as always, is waiting for more data and less uncertainty. The uncertainty of war won't help, according to Daiwa Capital Markets: 'The Trump administration has yet to take a definitive stance on intervention in the Iran-Israel conflict–with the plotted course either facilitating a return to calm or potentially triggering a broader conflict that could disrupt energy markets. Thus, uncertainty remains high and officials have demonstrated that they are willing to wait for additional clarity,' Lawrence Werther and Brendan Stuart told their clients in a note seen by Fortune. Here's a snapshot of the action across global markets this morning: South Korea's Kospi was up 0.19%. India's Nifty 50 was flat. The S&P 500 closed flat yesterday. The market is closed for the Juneteenth holiday today. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 slipped 0.3% in early trading. China's Composite was down 0.82%. Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 2%. This story was originally featured on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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4 days ago
- Business
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Cushman & Wakefield's Michelle MacKay on the advantages of board-to-CEO leaders
In today's CEO Daily: Diane Brady talks to Cushman & Wakefield's Michelle MacKay. The big story: Trump may or may not be trying to get a ceasefire in Iran. The markets: Resting easy. Analyst notes from Convera on the weakening dollar, Macquarie on Iran and the oil market, and Oxford Economics on business sentiment Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune. Good morning. Cushman & Wakefield's Michelle MacKay, Larry Culp of GE, Richard Dickson of The Gap, and Carol Tomé of UPS all have something in common: They were appointed CEO after serving on the boards of companies they now run. Such board-to-CEO transitions have become more common for multiple reasons, from the complexity of the business landscape to a desire for boards to instil seasoned leaders they know and trust. For MacKay, serving on three public boards after retirement stoked her ambitions to take on a CEO role. 'Those three years that I spent in board seats, with a little more time for myself, were probably the most important years of my career journey, which is ironic, because I wasn't working full time,' MacKay told Fortune in this week's Leadership Next podcast. 'I really hadn't stepped back in a number of years and reconsidered my own path.' Her background in finance and real estate were appealing at a time of declining revenues. When Cushman's then-CEO John Forrester asked MacKay if she'd consider becoming CFO of the company, she said no, instead agreeing to become COO in 2020 with a clear path to becoming CEO in July of 2023. 'It was a big challenge with a big brand and I had somebody who backed me from the onset. And I thought, 'You know what? We got one version here, one life. I'm just going to go for it.'' While tariffs, geopolitics and other issues continue to weigh on the global outlook for commercial real estate services, MacKay has led the firm to growth again. Board service gave her a holistic view of not only the company but also her career. With CEO turnover near record highs for much of the past year, more leaders may find a period of pause on boards inspires them to return to corporate leadership with fresh eyes and purpose. Said MacKay: 'Can one be too engaged? I don't think so.' You can listen to the podcast here on Apple or Spotify. More news CEO Daily via Diane Brady at This story was originally featured on
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
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ICE raids are making CEO focus on employees even more important
In today's CEO Daily: Diane Brady on the impact of ICE raids on CEOs. The big story: Israel attacks Iran and oil surges. The markets: Down on Middle East fight. Analyst notes from Convera, UBS, and Deutsche Bank. Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune. Good morning. I spoke with a C-suite leader of a large retailer this week who shook his head when I asked about the ICE raids and protests. 'I understand and support our laws,' he said. 'What I don't understand is why we have to be so vindictive and cruel in applying them.' Therein lies the challenge for CEOs in speaking up right now as some fear that seemingly innocuous statements might put a target on their backs. We do hear from those who are already wounded, like Gary Rohwer of Glenn Valley Foods whose plant is operating at 30% capacity after federal immigration officials arrested half his workforce, despite him clearing them through the government's own E-verify system. Even those who haven't been raided may be feeling an impact from the crackdowns. More than a million foreign-born workers have dropped out of the labor force since March, according to the St. Louis Fed. One leader in the construction sector told me that one of his workers quit because they're worried a raid might harm an undocumented sibling who's staying in their home. For Scott Boatwright of Chipotle, whose workforce is 52% Hispanic, the answer has been to focus on his people. As he put it during a recent Leadership Next podcast: 'All of our team members go through the E-verify process. But it's not lost on me that I could have team members within the organization that could have family members that are affected one way or another. I think it's important for us as leaders in the organization to ensure we are connecting with all of our people, and just a mental check-in to say, 'Hey, how are you doing? How can we help? How can we support? I know you may be going through a challenging time.'' More news CEO Daily via Diane Brady at This story was originally featured on
Yahoo
12-06-2025
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Trump's hand against Beijing is getting weaker as Chinese exports to the U.S. tank 34% year over year
President Trump's tariff strategy was based on the belief that China, heavily reliant on the U.S. market, would absorb higher export costs and be forced to negotiate. However, recent data shows Chinese exports to the U.S. have sharply declined as China diversifies to other markets, undermining Trump's leverage and casting uncertainty over the future of U.S.-China trade relations despite a temporary truce. When President Trump announced his tariff regime, he said China would have to 'absorb' the increases to export prices and would be forced to the negotiating table to agree to new trading terms. After all, he reasoned, China is reliant on the U.S. as its greatest export market and would have to reshape its entire economy if it didn't agree to a deal. So, despite wanting to rebalance trade with economic partners, Trump's strong hand relied somewhat on the notion that Chinese businesses needed to keep selling to U.S. companies and consumers. But as negotiations rumble on and evolve, that foundation has shifted. Data released Monday reveals Chinese exports to the U.S. fell by more than 34% in May 2025 when compared year on year. Exports to the U.S. also dropped a little over 20% in April, signaling a conscious shift away from the reliable U.S. consumer toward other markets. These new pockets of potential for Chinese exporters include Africa, where exports were up more than 30% in May year over year, and Canada, where exports are up 20% in May compared with the same month last year, per analysis from FX and international payments specialists Convera. The diversification away from the U.S. for Chinese exporters could be interpreted as undermining Trump's seat at the negotiating table in Beijing, said Convera's lead FX and macro strategist, George Vessey. He tells Fortune: 'I think the data may be seen as undermining Trump's position and ability to hurt China. Still, given the disinflationary impact this is expected to have on other countries, it raises the risk of the trade war escalating elsewhere with other countries forced to impose their own tariffs on China. 'There was already growing evidence that China is successfully diversifying its trade relations, becoming less dependent on the U.S. as the destination of its manufactured goods. The share of the U.S. in overall Chinese exports has fallen from around 23% at the beginning of the century to 16%.' He also provided a caveat to the data, saying: 'It's worth noting that Chinese exports to the U.S. always fall around the Chinese New Year (generally February) but usually rebound strongly by now. This year, the post–Chinese New Year rebound simply hasn't happened. Although there was a surge in U.S. imports in Q1, nearly all came from Europe rather than from China.' The data may have come at a convenient time for Chinese officials, who are meeting with Trump aides to discuss a deal in London. To recap, currently the tit-for-tat trade war between Beijing and Washington, D.C., has entered something of a truce, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announcing a 90-day pause in May. Both sides agreed to lower their rates by 115%, meaning Bejing faces a 30% tariff and the U.S. faces a 10% tariff. As officials met in the U.K. this week, analysts had hoped for some further evidence about what an eventual deal would look like. Instead, they received a reiteration of the truce already announced and a framework with little detail about future proceedings. President Trump said that a deal was 'done,' pending sign-off from President Xi. Rare earth magnets would be 'upfront' in the agreement, he added, leading some to speculate that the U.S. had agreed to commitments such as letting Chinese students into its universities. As Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid wrote in a note sent to Fortune this morning: 'Overall, this left a sense that the two sides had reestablished the trade truce that was signaled in Geneva last month, but with the path forward towards any genuine trade normalization still unclear.' Vessey chimes: 'Trade talks between major economies remain pivotal, shaping inflation and global market dynamics. We've heard some positive developments over the past week, but until there's more clarity, investor sentiment may pivot back to macro drivers.' This story was originally featured on
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Business
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Xerox's CEO takes the long view on ‘reinvention'
In today's CEO Daily: Diane Brady on Xerox's reinvention. The big story: U.S. and China agree to framework deal. The markets: Up but not soaring after U.S.-China framework. Analyst notes from UBS, Convera, and Deutsche Bank. Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune. Good morning. Xerox CEO Steve Bandrowczak is a determined man. Disowned by his family at 16, he took 10 years to complete a two-year degree from a community college while working nights on the Long Island Railroad. So he doesn't mind playing the long game when it comes to what he calls the 'Reinvention' of a 118-year-old brand that's struggling with a shrinking print business, geopolitical headwinds, and short sellers seeking to profit from the company's distress. As Bandrowczak told me yesterday at the Fortune COO Summit, the shift from being a manufacturer of copier machines to a services and software company is well underway, 'this public reinvention is critical and the hardest part is the second half, which is where we are now.' Hard is an understatement. Bandrowczak's recent decision to cut the dividend to reduce debt as he navigates tariffs, a tricky acquisition, and a volatile economy sent a struggling stock even lower. 'When you're reinventing a company, it's always a lot easier to do it in private,' said Bandrowczak. 'However, we rebuilt an incredible board…and I want to reward the shareholders who have stuck with us for so many years.' As for the skeptics, Bandrowczak says he doesn't care because he's confident that his strategy will yield results. As long as his board and leadership team have his back, he'll stick with the plan. After all, starting out he 'was going from garbage to garbage scraps, trying to get enough money to put gas in my car. I don't fear anything.' Click here for the full interview. More news CEO Daily via Diane Brady at This story was originally featured on Sign in to access your portfolio
