Latest news with #ConsumerConfidence
NZ Herald
5 days ago
- Business
- NZ Herald
Modest rise in consumer confidence but households set for disposable-income boost as mortgage rates fall
Consumer confidence continues to tread water, but households could soon receive a back-pocket boost in the hundreds of dollars, says a Westpac economist. The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence index rose two points to 91.2 in the June quarter. Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said it was a modest rise
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US consumer sentiment rises for first time this year as 'shock' of high tariffs wears off
Consumers are starting to feel better about the trajectory of the US economy as President Trump has dialed back some of his most aggressive stances on tariffs and Americans come to terms with the economic reality that tariffs are here to stay. The latest University of Michigan survey released Friday showed sentiment increased for the first time since December 2024, with the index rising to a reading of 60.5, above the 52.2 seen last month and the 53.6 expected by economists. The increase came after May recorded one of the lowest readings on record. "Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April and the policy volatility seen in the weeks that followed," Survey of Consumers director Joanne Hsu wrote in the release. Pessimism over the inflation outlook lessened in June, as one-year inflation expectations plunged to 5.1% from the more than four-decade high of 6.6% reached in May. Long-run inflation expectations, which track expectations over the next five to 10 years, also fell, hitting 4.1% in June, down from 4.2% in May. Read more: What is consumer confidence, and why does it matter? Still, Hsu noted that consumer views of business conditions, personal finances, labor markets, stock markets, and buying conditions for big-ticket items all remain below where they were in December. "Despite this month's notable improvement, consumers remain guarded and concerned about the trajectory of the economy," Hsu said. In April, the estimated US effective tariff rate peaked around 27%, significantly higher than the 2.5% rate entering the year. But following pauses on many of Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs and a 90-day pause on duties placed on China, JPMorgan now estimates the US effective tariff rate is closer to 14%. The rise in the University of Michigan's June survey follows a similar signal from May's Consumer Confidence reading from The Conference Board. The latest index reading from The Conference Board was 98 in May, well above the 85.7 seen in April and the 87.1 economists had expected. The expectations index surged off its 13-year low seen in April, reaching 72.8 in May, far above the 55.4 in the month prior. This marked the largest month-over-month increase for that metric since May 2009. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet In a research published on June 6, Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin pointed out that so-called soft economic data, which covers data points like consumer surveys, usually hits its cycle bottom before hard economic data, like monthly readings on inflation or jobs. Kostin's work shows the S&P 500 typically will follow the soft data's return higher, even if hard economic data continues to move lower. "S&P 500 returns are currently more correlated with soft data than hard data," wrote Kostin, who projects the S&P 500 will hit 6,500 in the next 12 months. "If the recovery in soft data is sustained, it should support equity returns even as hard data weaken." Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US consumer sentiment rises for first time this year as 'shock' of high tariffs wears off
Consumers are starting to feel better about the trajectory of the US economy as President Trump has dialed back some of his most aggressive stances on tariffs and Americans come to terms with the economic reality that tariffs are here to stay. The latest University of Michigan survey released Friday showed sentiment increased for the first time since Dec. 2024, with the index rising to a reading of 60.5, above the 52.2 seen last month and the 53.6 expected by economists. The increase came after May recorded one of the lowest readings on record. "Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April and the policy volatility seen in the weeks that followed," Survey of Consumers director Joanne Hsu wrote in the release. Pessimism over the inflation outlook lessened in June ,as one-year inflation expectations plunged to 5.1% from the more than four-decade high of 6.6% reached in May. Long-run inflation expectations, which track expectations over the next five to 10 years, also fell, hitting 4.1% in June down from 4.2% in May. Still, Hsu noted that consumer views of business conditions, personal finances, buying conditions for big ticket items, labor markets, and stock markets all remain below where they were in December. "Despite this month's notable improvement, consumers remain guarded and concerned about the trajectory of the economy," Hsu said. The rise in the University's Michigan's June survey follows a similar signal from May's Consumer Confidence reading from The Conference Board. The latest index reading from The Conference Board was 98 in May, well above the 85.7 seen in April and the 87.1 economists had expected. The expectations index surged off its 13-year low seen in April, reaching 72.8 in May, far above the 55.4 in the month prior. This marked the largest month-over-month increase for that metric since May 2009. In a research published on June 6, Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin pointed out that so-called soft economic data, which covers data points like consumer surveys, usually hits its cycle bottom before hard economic data, like monthly readings on inflation or jobs. Kostin's work shows the S&P 500 typically will follow the soft data's return higher, even if hard economic data continues to move lower. "S&P 500 returns are currently more correlated with soft data than hard data," wrote Kostin, who projects the S&P 500 will hit 6,500 in the next 12 months. "If the recovery in soft data is sustained, it should support equity returns even as hard data weaken." Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Sign in to access your portfolio
Times of Oman
07-06-2025
- Business
- Times of Oman
Urban consumer confidence shows stable sentiments, expects brighter outlook: RBI survey
Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India's Urban Consumer Confidence Survey (UCCS) for May 2025 indicates that consumer sentiments regarding the current economic situation have remained largely stable compared to March, supported by slight improvements in areas such as employment and prices, though these still remain in the negative zone. According to the survey data, the overall Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) registered a marginal decline, dipping slightly from 95.5 in March to 95.4 in May 2025. This reflects a minor weakening in current consumer sentiment. However, expectations for the future have improved notably. The survey findings stated that the people are more optimistic about the economic outlook, employment prospects, income levels, and their ability to spend. This growing optimism pushed the Future Expectations Index (FEI) up by 1 point, from 122.4 in March to 123.4 in May. The RBI conducted the survey between May 2 and May 11, covering 6,090 respondents across 19 major Indian cities. The survey highlights how urban households perceive the present economic environment and what they anticipate for the coming year. A key takeaway from the survey is the growing optimism among urban households regarding inflation and price levels. This is the second consecutive round where concerns about high prices have declined. Looking ahead, most respondents expect inflation and prices to ease further. RBI said "Pessimism about the current price level and inflation continued to ease for the second consecutive round. Households also expect a decline in both price and inflationary pressures over the coming year." Although consumers did not report a major change in their current income levels, there is strong optimism about future earnings. "Households remain firmly optimistic on future earnings even though their sentiment on current earnings remained around its March 2025 level," the RBI added. Spending patterns also reflect this cautious optimism. While current spending, both on essential and non-essential items, has seen a slight dip compared to March, expectations for future spending have improved. In summary, the survey revealed that while consumers feel only slightly better about present conditions, they are significantly more confident and hopeful about the year ahead.
The Independent
05-06-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Confidence in UK economy falls from 45% in 2015 to 28% a decade later
Confidence in the strength of the UK economy has fallen from 45% in May 2015 to 28% a decade later following a cost-of-living crisis, Brexit, Covid and geopolitical upheaval, according to a long-running survey. But confidence in non-essential spending has held strong, at an average of 53% from 2015 to now, the Barclays 10 Years Of Spend report found. Despite financial pressure, households' discretionary spending has grown by 9.2% annually on average between 2021 and 2024, outpacing essential spending's 5% growth. The study, based on billions of transactions and more than 200,000 consumer confidence surveys since 2015, found that 66% of consumers pay more attention to their budget than they did a decade ago. Just under half (45%) of UK adults say they do not feel better off than they did 10 years ago. Consumer confidence in the strength of the UK economy reached its highest point in September 2016 – at 48% – after the Brexit referendum, and fell to its lowest in October 2022 – at 15% – following the September 'mini-budget'. Barclays has monitored consumers' efforts to find value in their weekly supermarket shop since 2023, finding that the percentage of shoppers who say they are trying to reduce their grocery spending has averaged 65%, peaking at 73% in April last year. Karen Johnson, head of retail at Barclays, said: 'The last decade has brought unprecedented levels of disruption. Amid all the highs and lows, consumers have continued to rebalance their budgets and find savvy ways to manage their money. 'This conscious consumerism will continue to shape spending in the years ahead.' British Retail Consortium chief executive Helen Dickinson said: 'Since the cost-of-living crisis began, many consumers have adjusted their spending habits to save money. 'More consumers are shopping around, holding off on big-ticket purchases, and are switching to own-brand ranges or cheaper brands. For food specifically, many customers are swapping out fresh products for frozen and buying cheaper cuts of meat. 'Nonetheless, retailers remain committed to supporting their consumers by keeping the price of essentials as low as possible.'
