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AU Financial Review
an hour ago
- Business
- AU Financial Review
Healthscope in limbo for up to a year as administrators extend auction
Max Mason covers financial crime, courts and corporate wrongdoing. A Walkley Award winner, Max's journalism has also received awards from the National Press Club of Australia, the Kennedy Awards and Citibank. Message Max on Signal
Reuters
16 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
Citi sees oil prices of $75-$78/bbl if war disrupts 1.1 mln bpd of Iran's oil exports
June 19 (Reuters) - An escalation of the Iran-Israeli hostilities could keep Brent oil prices trading about 15% to 20% above pre-conflict levels if the war disrupts 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil exports, analysts at Citibank said on Thursday. "This implies Brent prices should be in the $75 to $78/bbl range," Citi said in a note. Prices had been hovering around $65 per barrel in May. Brent crude futures were up $1.48, or 1.9%, to $78.18 a barrel by 1230 ET on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for July was up $1.72, or 2.3%, at $76.86. Separately, JP Morgan said in a note that in the most extreme case of a broader regional conflagration that includes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it estimates that oil prices could surge to $120-$130 per barrel. The Iran-Israel conflict has raised fears of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, a key oil-producing region, pushing crude prices higher as traders react to the growing geopolitical risk. Iran is OPEC's third-largest producer, extracting about 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil. According to Citi, a disruption of about 3 million bpd over a multi-month period could push prices to $90 bbl. Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cause a sharp price spike, but Citi believes it would be brief as efforts would focus on a quick reopening. Iranian oil export disruptions may have a smaller impact on oil prices than expected due to falling exports and reduced Chinese purchases as prices are higher now, it said. "Production elsewhere globally may have risen sufficiently to offset the disruption impact, particularly if the production disruption was expected," Citi noted. Increased supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could also mitigate the impact of potential Iranian oil export disruptions, it added. On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs noted that it estimates a geopolitical risk premium of around $10 per barrel following the rise in Brent prices to $76-77 per barrel, while Barclays said that if Iranian exports are reduced by half, crude prices could rise to $85 per barrel and that prices could move past $100 in the "worst-case" scenario of a wider conflagration.
Yahoo
16 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Citi sees oil prices of $75-$78/bbl if war disrupts 1.1 million bpd of Iran's oil exports
(Reuters) -An escalation of the Iran-Israeli hostilities could keep Brent oil prices trading about 15% to 20% above pre-conflict levels if the war disrupts 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil exports, analysts at Citibank said on Thursday. "This implies Brent prices should be in the $75 to $78/bbl range," Citi said in a note. Prices had been hovering around $65 per barrel in May. Brent crude futures were up $1.48, or 1.9%, to $78.18 a barrel by 1230 ET on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for July was up $1.72, or 2.3%, at $76.86. [O/R] Separately, JP Morgan said in a note that in the most extreme case of a broader regional conflagration that includes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it estimates that oil prices could surge to $120-$130 per barrel. The Iran-Israel conflict has raised fears of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, a key oil-producing region, pushing crude prices higher as traders react to the growing geopolitical risk. Iran is OPEC's third-largest producer, extracting about 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil. According to Citi, a disruption of about 3 million bpd over a multi-month period could push prices to $90 bbl. Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cause a sharp price spike, but Citi believes it would be brief as efforts would focus on a quick reopening. Iranian oil export disruptions may have a smaller impact on oil prices than expected due to falling exports and reduced Chinese purchases as prices are higher now, it said. "Production elsewhere globally may have risen sufficiently to offset the disruption impact, particularly if the production disruption was expected," Citi noted. Increased supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could also mitigate the impact of potential Iranian oil export disruptions, it added. On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs noted that it estimates a geopolitical risk premium of around $10 per barrel following the rise in Brent prices to $76-77 per barrel, while Barclays said that if Iranian exports are reduced by half, crude prices could rise to $85 per barrel and that prices could move past $100 in the "worst-case" scenario of a wider conflagration. Sign in to access your portfolio
News18
a day ago
- Business
- News18
Gold May See 10% Correction In 2 Months And 30% Fall In A Year, Say Experts
Last Updated: Gold prices are not changing despite escalations in Middle East; experts say its rates are likely to have peaked out and may fall from $3,400 to $2,400 in a year if tensions ease. Gold Rate Prediction 2025: After rising nearly 30% this year, gold prices are not changing despite escalations in the Middle East tensions. According to experts, the yellow metal is likely to have peaked out and might see a correction of about 10% in the next one-two months and around 30% in the next one year. Backing up their projections, experts say the bullion markets have already factored in geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, ETF demand, and de-dollarisation. Citibank has revised downwards its gold price target for the next one year. According to its report, Citi has cut its gold rate expectation for the next three months from $3,500 per ounce to $3,300, and for the next 6-12 months to $2,800 as against $3,000 an ounce earlier. Ajay Kedia of Kedia Advisory told CNBC Awaaz, 'In the past 10-20 years, we not seen a situation where simulteneous wars are happening in the Middle East as well as in the Black Sea, and still the geopolitical situation is escalating. In seven days of the ongoing Israel-Iran war, gold surged on the first day. But, after that, though tensions have escalated, gold is not reacting. It shows this factor has matured." He, however, said it has been noticed in the past that during such escalations, gold takes a stepback and then makes a recovery. 'For that, gold needs to rise above the $3,500 level in the international market." Currently, spot gold stands at $3,371.15 an ounce in the international market. 'However, whatever story we have heared in the past five years — geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, ETF demand, de-dollarisation; the bullion market has already factored in," he said. 'So, in the next one-two months, gold might see a correction of 8-10% easily. Gold may fall to $2,700-2,800 in the next one year. It might even fall to $2,400 if global tensions ease significantly," Kedia added. The $2,400 is more than 30% down as compared to the current gold price levels. Discussing the impact of higher gold prices on retail market, Shreyansh Kapoor of Kashi Jewellers said rising gold prices are not good sign for the retail market. 'In such a situation, people start selling their old jewellery to take profits. Higher prices also affect wedding budgets." He, however, said it is a good opportunity for those who want to make short-term gains. 'I have never seen so many people coming and selling gold. In my 25 years of experience, I have never seen that so many people are taking out their old jewellery to encash it. Earlier, 5-7% people used to come to sell back their old jewelleries. Now, it is 25%. It includes both exchanging and encashing," Kapoor said. Recently, brokerage house Quant Mutual Fund in its 'Factsheet for June 2025' also said gold has peaked out and might correct by 12-15% in the next two months. 'Gold has peaked out and has the potential to correct by 12-15% in dollar terms over the next two months. However, our medium-term and long-term views are equally constructive, and we reiterate that a meaningful percentage of your portfolio should be dedicated towards precious metals," Quant Mutual Fund stated. Gold prices have increased nearly 30% to $3,355 an ounce this calendar year. It had stood at nearly $2,600 as of January 1, 2025. The rates have increased due to increased investor demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Investor sentiment turned defensive on the back of US President Donald Trump's tariff decisions, rekindling trade war concerns with China. Escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict further strengthened the safe-haven demand.
AU Financial Review
a day ago
- Business
- AU Financial Review
Richard White's billionaire supporters to leave WiseTech board
Max Mason covers financial crime, courts and corporate wrongdoing. A Walkley Award winner, Max's journalism has also received awards from the National Press Club of Australia, the Kennedy Awards and Citibank. Message Max on Signal Connect with Max on Twitter. Email Max at
