Latest news with #ChathamHouse
Irish Times
17 hours ago
- Politics
- Irish Times
Europe should stop whining and ‘act like the superpower' it is, former US general warns
Europe should 'quit whining' about the threats it faces and 'act like the superpower' that it is, according to a former senior US army officer. Ben Hodges , a retired lieutenant general who led US forces in Europe from 2014 to 2017, also said European Nato members including Germany should prepare for future Russian air strikes on their air and sea ports. Mr Hodges, who was addressing a gathering of foreign affairs experts in London on Thursday, said the missile defences of European countries in the US-led Nato alliance are 'completely inadequate' to protect transport infrastructure. He told the event, hosted by the Chatham House think tank, that Germany could in the years ahead face the same sort of air strikes Ukraine has endured since the Russian invasion in 2022. READ MORE Mr Hodges told the conference that European Nato states should focus on preparing their citizens for the possibility of war with Russia. 'There is a threat. Explain it to your population like adults.' In the event that the US pulls back from defending Europe under Donald Trump , Mr Hodges said he felt the continent 'of course has the capability of defending itself'. But he also suggested European states lack the political will to do so. Europe needed the 'self confidence' to be more assertive in the face of Russian threats, he said. A 'true deterrence' of Russia would require it to be convinced that European societies, at every level, were prepared and willing to deal with military action against president Vladimir Putin's nation. [ Ireland must stop 'free-riding' on security 'gifted by others', says former Chief of Staff Opens in new window ] A journalist from LBC radio station asked for the retired lieutenant general's response to the assertion that the British public does not take seriously gloomy threats of the potential for war with Russia. The broadcaster suggested this was because people were cynical after being duped into believing Iraq had weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) in 2003, which was used as a pretext for war but turned out to be untrue. [ Britain to move closer to 'warfighting readiness' as review calls for defence overhaul Opens in new window ] Mr Hodges said it was a 'fair question' and recalled his own experiences looking in 'bunkers with flashlights for WMDs in Iraq' and finding to his surprise that none existed. He said Russia had yet to feel enough pushback from Europe and also the US over its war against Ukraine . He suggested Russia's oil and gas infrastructure should be put under 'pressure' and said Mr Putin had, in effect, already 'attacked' Nato states by, for example, launching air incursions over Estonia. A conference attendee challenged Mr Hodges by suggesting that diplomacy with Russia might achieve better results than war posturing, but he replied that Russia could not be trusted to uphold any diplomatic agreement and hard pressure was the only way to keep Mr Putin in check.
Daily Mirror
19 hours ago
- Politics
- Daily Mirror
Ex Iran ambassador in furious rant on-air as he slams Israel amid WW3 fears
The former ambassador to Iran has claimed that the threat posed to Israel by the Islamic Republic is 'not credible,' alleging that the there was 'no imminent threat' to Israel that justifies their ongoing attacks An expert has slammed Israel's attacks against Iran, saying that there was no "credible" threat to Israel ahead of their strikes on the Islamic Republic on 14 June. Sir Richard Dalton - who is an associate fellow at international affairs think-tank Chatham House and formerly worked as the ambassador to Iran - said that there was "no imminent threat" to Israel from Iran, but made it clear he strongly opposed the "appalling and unacceptable" rhetoric that Iran has used about Israel for many years, adding that he believes it to be "wrong" that Iran won't accept the state of Israel. Speaking in a heated debate about the issue on BBC Radio Four's Moral Maze, the expert claimed that Iran did not have the capabilities or intention to be a threat to the existence of Israel - without proof of which, he said, the threat could not be seen as legitimate. "Decades of tolerance of Israeli defiance of international law has cemented Israeli belief that they are untouchable," the expert said, "Whatever their actions, they have a sense of impunity." When asked about Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium - which is close to weapons-grade and something they have refused to explain for several years - the expert said: "They've done that in order to put leverage on the international community to revert to the deal which was working, and which President Trump foolishly scrapped in 2018. It was a highly questionable decision to do that". The Iran nuclear deal - also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) - was signed in 2015, and ended a 12-year deadlock. It took two years of intense talks to draw up, and saw some sanctions against Iran removed, in return for being unable to create nuclear weapons. Tehran also accepted as part of the deal that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) would monitor their nuclear facilities extensively. When Trump pulled out of the deal - something he called "horrible" and "one-sided" in 2018 - Iran's president, Hassan Rouhani, called it "psychological warfare" and said that if the deal collapsed he would instruct the extensive enrichment of uranium to begin again. Days before Israel's initial strikes on Iran, the IAEA - the nuclear watchdog - found that Iran was not complying with its nuclear obligations. Sir Richard - who during his time as ambassador to Iran was part of negotiations regarding preventing the country from creating nuclear weapons - added it was "simply propaganda" to "suggest that people like me are not taking the question of providing assurance that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon seriously". He also claimed that intelligence suggests that Iran is still a long way off from weaponising their enriched uranium. "Come to me with a statement backed up by evidence that Iran is close to developing a nuclear weapon, and then we can have a proper conversation," the international affairs expert said. He added that while he thought pre-emptive force could be morally justified in some cases in international law, Israel's actions were "an illegal aggression because there was no justification in the law of self defence and that is because there has been no Iranian decision or action to build nuclear weapons that had been was no plan underway to eliminate Israel, and this is the key point, there was no imminent threat".
ABC News
a day ago
- Politics
- ABC News
Middle East Analyst sees no diplomatic prospect in the near future and a new balance of power moving forward
Thomas Juneau from the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House says there's no diplomatic prospect for the Iran-Israel conflict in the coming days, and when the dust does settle there's likely to be a very different balance of power in the Middle East.
New Straits Times
2 days ago
- Politics
- New Straits Times
Outcome of Iran-Israel conflict uncertain
Israel has inflicted damage on strategic sites and killed key figures within Iran's military leadership in aerial attacks that show no signs of abating. But the ultimate outcome is unclear, analysts say. Israel says its offensive aims to eliminate Iran's nuclear programme and ballistic missile production capabilities. The Israeli government has not ruled out triggering a wholesale removal of Iran's theocratic system set up after the 1979 revolution that has remained opposed to Israel's existence. Yet, even if Israel succeeds in ousting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or killing him, the supreme leader will not necessarily be replaced by more moderate forces and the risk exists of further escalation, analysts warn. Diplomacy, meanwhile, remains at a standstill as Israel pounds Iranian targets and Iran hits back with its own strikes on its foe, heightening fears of a wider and prolonged conflict. In television interviews, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not ruled out killing Khamenei, although a United States official said President Donald Trump had vetoed assassinating the supreme leader. Israel, whose intelligence service is widely acknowledged to have deeply penetrated Iran, has killed a host of key figures, including the heads of the Revolutionary Guards and armed forces, which is a huge blow. "This is existential, the most profound of all the crises the Islamic republic has faced," said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the London-based Chatham House think tank. "This is designed to decapitate the leadership of the Islamic republic and degrade the nuclear and broader capabilities of the regime," she said. Rather than an immediate turnaround, what could result is "an unravelling over time", with the Israeli action putting an "accelerant" on a process of change already happening within Iran due to dissatisfaction with the authorities, she said. For Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Non-proliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, Israel's military operation "is about regime change and not eliminating the nuclear programme". "If the regime falls, then it will be an enormous success," he said of the operation Israel dubbed "Rising Lion" — a likely reference to the beast which adorned the pre-revolutionary Iranian flag. Even in the event of a change in leadership, Gregory Brew, senior analyst for Iran and energy at risk analysis firm Eurasia Group, said Khamenei could be replaced with a figure who may be even more hardline and pose a greater danger to Israel. "Kill Khamenei, make him a martyr to the hardliners and empower a new supreme leader who may be much less risk averse. "Or leave him to die or resign in likely disgrace after the war, his credibility in ruins. Which move produces a government better suited to Israel's interests?" Brew said. Iran's ability to cause regional mayhem through its proxies, Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, has been severely degraded by Israeli operations since October 2023. But Teheran still backs the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have attacked Gulf shipping, while Iran can strike energy facilities or mount cyberattacks. "It remains to be seen if Iran will seek to engage in gray zone activities, including cyberattacks," said analysts at US-based think tank Soufan Center. Israel's airstrikes have put an end, for now, to the latest track of talks seeking to end the stand-off over the Iranian nuclear programme. Analysts say the future of any diplomatic progress lies with the US and Trump. "Netanyahu's goal is to bring Trump into the war," said David Khalfa, co-founder of the Atlantic Middle East Forum think tank. Israel has hit the Natanz nuclear site, but has not been able to strike the Fordo enrichment facility, which is deep underground. Analysts believe Israel could damage it only with American bunker-busting bombs. Ali Vaez, Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, argued in an article for Foreign Affairs that Israel would be unable to wipe out the Iranian nuclear programme even in a prolonged conflict. "A diplomatic settlement represents the best and most sustainable way for Trump to avoid both a nuclear Iran and a protracted military entanglement," Vaez said.
NBC News
2 days ago
- Politics
- NBC News
Interest rates unlikely to change and Sabrina Carpenter album sparks debate: Morning Rundown
Experts say the attacks on Iran are unlikely to lead to a regime change. The Federal Reserve will decide whether to change interest rates or keep them the same. And pop star Sabrina Carpenter's new album cover sparks scrutiny and debate. Here's what to know today. Israeli assault could fuel power struggles in the Iranian regime President Donald Trump is considering options including a possible U.S. strike on Iran, multiple current and former administration officials said after he met yesterday with his national security team in the White House Situation Room to discuss the conflict between Israel and Iran. Trump also called on Iran to surrender unconditionally and appeared to show solidarity with Israel in posts on social media/ 'We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,' one read, referring to the U.S. and Israel. This is Morning Rundown, a weekday newsletter to start your day. Sign up here to get it in your inbox. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says his country's assault could trigger the collapse of the Iranian regime and open the door to a popular uprising. But scholars who study Iran, as well as former U.S. and Israeli officials, say that scenario is unlikely. There are a few factors: → First, Iranian opponents of the regime have mixed reactions to the Israeli strikes. Given the country's bitter experience with foreign meddling, distrust of outside powers is pervasive. Several days into the conflict, "we still see no sign of a popular uprising against the government," one expert said. Another noted, "Iranians are very well understood to resent their government... but they are also fiercely nationalistic." → While a popular uprising is unlikely, 'it is possible that Iran witnesses an elite coup,' an associate fellow at the London think tank Chatham House said. The Israeli assault has exposed widespread vulnerabilities in Iran's security and military establishment, which could fuel power struggles and possible defections. A coup from within the regime might produce an even more authoritarian result, experts said. Regardless, the Iranian government is struggling to cope with the attacks. Even if Israel's onslaught does not topple the regime, it could inflict permanent damage. More coverage of the Israel-Iran conflict: Israel said it struck uranium enrichment sites in Iran early Wednesday, and Iran plunged into a near-total internet blackout the day before. Follow our live blog for updates. Iranians are desperate to flee Tehran amid Israeli bombardments, but with roads and highways jammed, some are unsure if they'll be able to make it out. An emerging coalition that includes some of Trump's most fervent supporters and progressive Democrats is raising alarm about the possibility of the U.S. taking an active role in the conflict. The action in the Middle East and Trump's early departure from the G7 summit in Canada suggest that global crises are piling up in ways that are impacting other parts of his agenda. Federal Reserve likely to keep interest rates the same The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting today as it continues to assess the impact of Trump's tariffs and focus on clamping down on inflation. If so, the announcement likely won't sit well with Trump, who has called for lower rates and asserted there is no inflation. But retail spending is down, and the president's on-again, off-again tariffs rollout has left businesses and consumers in limbo. The Fed is also keeping an eye on ongoing signs that the job market is slowing down. Last week, filings for unemployment insurance climbed to just short of 2 million, the most since November 2021, and hiring rates remain at lows not seen in more than a decade. Read the full story here. New York City comptroller and mayoral candidate Brad Lander was released hours after his arrest at an immigration court yesterday. Lander — who was at the federal courthouse with his wife to serve as advocates for defendants in immigration court — was 'taken by masked agents' and detained by ICE after 'escorting a defendant' out of court, Lander's press secretary said. The Department of Homeland Security said they arrested Lander for 'assaulting law enforcement and impeding a federal officer.' But Lander said after his release that he did not assault law enforcement and criticized the Trump administration. 'We are not going to let Donald Trump wreck the rule of law, to deny people due process, and to turn our country into something that doesn't meet its obligation under international law,' he said. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said after Lander's release that any charges against Lander were dropped 'to my knowledge' and he 'walks out of there a free man.' Read the full story here. More politics news: Trump reopened arrests of immigrant workers at hotels, restaurants and agricultural businesses, backtracking on comments suggesting he wouldn't target people in those industries. The Senate passed a landmark cryptocurrency bill that would establish the first regulatory framework for issuers of stablecoins, sending the legislation to the House. Trump plans to sign an executive order that allows TikTok to keep running in the U.S., extending the deadline for its owner to find a non-Chinese buyer. Supreme Court justices' financial disclosure reports for 2024 show Ketanji Brown Jackson earned more than $2 million from the publisher of her memoir, while Neil Gorsuch reported a $250,000 advance for a book he co-authored. Read All About It A review of RFK Jr.'s picks to serve on the vaccine advisory panel that makes recommendations to the CDC found that many members lack specific expertise in vaccine science or policy. The Florida Panthers won their second straight Stanley Cup after a 5-1 win against the Edmonton Oilers in Game 6. Seven California men were charged and accused of stealing roughly $100 million in gold, diamonds, rubies and more in what federal prosecutors called the largest jewelry heist in U.S. history. The baby of a brain-dead pregnant woman who was being kept alive by ventilators under Georgia's abortion law was delivered, her family said. An actor and screenwriter has accused media mogul Tyler Perry of repeatedly making unwanted advances and seeking to cover up alleged sexual assault with an offer to develop a TV show. Anne Burrell, a Food Network star and 'Worst Cooks in America' host, has died at the age of 55. Sabrina Carpenter's new single 'Manchild' is a hit, debuting at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100. But unlike the song, the cover photo for her upcoming album, 'Man's Best Friend' is getting mixed reviews. Online discussions about the cover, which shows Carpenter on all fours while someone just out of frame pulls her hair like a leash, have dominated platforms like Reddit, TikTok, X and Instagram ever since its reveal. Some call it a harmless satire, and others assert the image is regressive for women — even bordering on glorifying domestic violence. I wanted to explore not only why the album cover has struck such a nerve, and if female artists could toy with concepts like the male gaze without reinforcing traditional gender roles. — Kalhan Rosenblatt, internet culture reporter NBC Select: Online Shopping, Simplified Hearing the buzz of a pesky mosquito or spotting gnats near a pile of fruits is a common summertime issue. The NBC Select team asked experts to recommend the best products for making your place completely bugproof. Plus, a popular portable phone charger from Anker was just recalled. Here's how to tell if yours is impacted.
