Latest news with #ChangShu
Bloomberg
11 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
APAC Economic Update: Global Macro, Tariffs & Strategic Tools
As global markets continue to navigate uncertainty driven by shifting tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and diverging central bank paths, understanding the macroeconomic landscape has never been more critical. That's why, throughout July, Bloomberg is hosting a range of events focused on clarifying the global and regional macro landscape—and we're thrilled to invite you to the flagship webinar. Join our top economic minds and product experts as they break down the key themes shaping the outlook across the U.S., China, and Japan—from trade policy and election cycles to monetary divergence and regional spillovers—all grounded in Bloomberg's data-rich economic research. This session will be conducted in English with AI subtitle support in various languages, including Simplified Chinese and Japanese. Reserve your place now. Speakers Chang Shu Chief Asia Economist Bloomberg Chang Shu is Bloomberg's Chief Asia Economist, based in Hong Kong. She leads a team to research into China, Japan, Australia and other major economies in the Asia-Pacific. She previously worked as a senior economist at the Bank for International Settlements and Hong Kong Monetary Authority. In those capacities, she researched widely into the global and Chinese economies. She was also closely involved into policy work including renminbi internationalisation. Prior to these, she also worked at the Bank of England. She is also a director at the Chinese Financial Association of Hong Kong. She edited Currency Internationalisation: Global Experiences and Implications for the Renminbi' and 'Cross-border Financial Linkages in Asia and the Pacific: Implications for Systemic Risks'. She has written extensively on the Chinese economy, renminbi internationalization and financial spillovers from China. She holds a PhD degree in Finance from the Birmingham University, UK. Hyosung kwon Economist, Korea Bloomberg Hyosung is the Korea Economist for Bloomberg Economics. He is responsible for macroeconomic forecasting and researching various economic sectors including monetary and fiscal policy, foreign exchange, property markets, and geo-economic developments. With a 20-year tenure at the Bank of Korea as s senior economist, he formerly headed the Monetary Policy Analysis team. He played a key role in formulating monetary policy strategies, economic forecasts, and building macroeconomic models at the Bank. He holds a PhD in economics from Boston University.
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street Sees Higher China Growth, Less Stimulus on US Truce
(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other major banks boosted their forecasts for China's 2025 economic growth, citing a better outlook for exports following the tariff truce with the US. As Coastline Erodes, One California City Considers 'Retreat Now' A New Central Park Amenity, Tailored to Its East Harlem Neighbors What's Behind the Rise in Serious Injuries on New York City's Streets? How Finland Is Harvesting Waste Heat From Data Centers Lawsuit Challenges Trump Administration Policy on Migrant Children Economists at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase & Co., ING Groep NV and Bloomberg Economics this week lifted their projections to 4.6% or above from as low as 4% previously. China could avoid a contraction in exports this year after striking a temporary deal with the US to de-escalate their trade conflict, Goldman said in a note Tuesday. In what could disappoint markets, the rosier outlook reduces the amount of additional stimulus policymakers might need to roll out to cushion the tariff impact, such as greater government borrowing and spending. Chinese stocks fell in Hong Kong on Tuesday as initial optimism from the truce faded, before rising again on Wednesday morning. JPMorgan on Monday removed its forecast for 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion) worth of fiscal stimulus it previously foresaw around a July meeting of the elite Politburo. Goldman Sachs now expects only one 10-basis point policy rate cut in the rest of this year, instead of two reductions of the same size previously. What Bloomberg Economics Says... 'Working out the details of a trade agreement will be fraught and could take time. For now, China has secured some breathing room — valuable time as it races to develop high-tech industries and bolster domestic demand to reduce the economy's vulnerability to external shocks. Ultimately, the extent China is able to lift consumption and investment will determine the longer-term growth path.' — Chang Shu and David Qu Click here to read the full report. Chinese and US trade negotiators on Monday announced an agreement to lower additional tariffs imposed during Trump's second term by more than anticipated, broadly taking China's blanket tariffs on US goods to 10% and US levies on China to 30% during a 90-day period. As a result, the average US tariff rate on China has fallen to around 40% from about 110% previously, according to Bloomberg Economics estimates. The tariff truce will likely boost Chinese exports in the coming months as US importers rush to fill their depleted inventories and front-load more orders. 'China's exports will likely accelerate further in the next 90 days. How overseas shipments will evolve after that will depend on where the trade talks go next,' said Zhou Mi, a senior research fellow with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a think tank under China's Ministry of Commerce. Beijing will seek to lower US tariffs further as they are 'still very high,' according to Zhou. 'The rate is still targeted at China and different from other countries. It is not a reasonable one from the very beginning,' he said. JPMorgan's forecasts are based on the assumption that the temporary tariff reduction will stay for the rest of this year, although its economists acknowledged the uncertainty over the outcome of the trade talks. There's room for the 20% fentanyl-related tariffs imposed by Trump on China to be lowered if China takes serious measures to curb the drug's flow, JPMorgan economists including Zhu Haibin wrote in a report dated Monday. 'On the other hand, the bar for a potential deal between China and the US is high and it could take much longer than 90 days, so we should not rule out the possibility of resurgence of tariff increase,' they said. Analysts at other major lenders including Citigroup Inc. and UBS Group AG have also cited upside potential to their current outlook for the Chinese economy following the trade talks in Geneva. --With assistance from Fran Wang. (Updates with details and comments throughout.) Cartoon Network's Last Gasp DeepSeek's 'Tech Madman' Founder Is Threatening US Dominance in AI Race Trump Has Already Ruined Christmas Why Obesity Drugs Are Getting Cheaper — and Also More Expensive The Recession Chatter Is Getting Louder. Watch These Metrics ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China gets worst 2025 growth forecast yet with UBS downgrade
(Bloomberg) — UBS Group AG (UBS) added to a series of growth downgrades for China with the most pessimistic forecast among major banks, predicting the economy will expand just 3.4% this year as US tariffs choke exports. How Did This Suburb Figure Out Mass Transit? The Secret Formula for Faster Trains Even Oslo Has an Air Quality Problem NYC Tourist Helicopter Crashes in Hudson River, Killing Six Lisbon Mayor Wants Companies to Help Fix City's Housing Shortage The Swiss bank, which previously saw growth in 2025 at 4%, maintained its estimate for next year at 3%. Both forecasts are the lowest of all projections for the economy compiled by Bloomberg. 'The tariff shock poses unprecedented challenges to China's exports and will set forth major adjustment in the domestic economy as well,' UBS economists including Tao Wang wrote in a note Tuesday. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Citigroup Inc. (C) are among global banks that cut their outlook for China in recent days, with most economists doubting Beijing can achieve the official target of around 5% growth this year. Assuming current tariff increases stay in place, they will likely drag down growth in China's gross domestic product by more than 2 percentage points despite additional stimulus expected from Beijing, according to UBS. The economists conceded their view has 'high margins of error' due to the 'extremely large uncertainty' surrounding the eventual tariff rates. Exports to the US are expected to fall by two-thirds in the coming quarters and total overseas shipments may drop by 10% in dollar terms this year, they added. 'We think some of China's other trading partners may also raise tariffs on Chinese goods in the coming months, but likely only on specific products and not in similar magnitudes as the US tariffs,' the UBS analysts said. China's economy likely held up well in the first quarter before the biggest tariff hikes came into force. Last month's exports in dollar terms far exceeded forecasts and soared 12.4% from a year earlier, reversing a decline of 3% in February. What Bloomberg Economics Says... 'With the trade war with the US escalating sharply, the economy will face stronger headwinds. We expect policymakers to expedite stimulus.' — Chang Shu and David Qu. For full analysis, click here Analysts broadly expect the negative impact of the levies to become evident in the coming months, after President Donald Trump raised total tariffs slapped this year on most Chinese goods to 145%. Cargo volumes handled by Chinese ports are already slowing in April. They peaked in the last week of March, which may represent a high point for Chinese trade if the dispute with the US escalates. The Chinese government is likely to add fiscal stimulus worth up to 2 percentage points of GDP to bolster growth, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and helping businesses and households fend off the tariff shock, according to UBS. It expects the People's Bank of China ( to cut policy rates and the amount of cash lenders must keep in reserve starting as soon as this month. The economists see at least 30-40 basis points of rate cuts. —With assistance from James Mayger. (Updates with export, cargo data starting in ninth paragraph.) The Beauty Salon Recession Indicator Trump Is Firing the Wrong People, on Purpose GM's Mary Barra Has to Make a $35 Billion EV Bet Work in Trump's America Cheap Consumer Goods Are the American Dream, Actually World Travelers Are Rethinking Vacation Plans to the US ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy Sign in to access your portfolio
