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Business Times
20 hours ago
- Business
- Business Times
Asean walks trade war tightrope
WITH its pauses and U-turns, Donald Trump's tariff agenda continues to defy firm forecasts. Still, it remains worthwhile to explore how the US president's trade wars have impacted South-east Asian economies and could continue to do so going forward. South-east Asian economies are strategically important to both China and the United States as trading partners, geographical interests and military bases, particularly for the US. Yet, for the past decade, the region has repeatedly found itself caught in the middle as these two global powers compete for economic supremacy. With a population of over 690 million – or around 8 per cent of the world's population – Asean accounts for over 3.5 per cent of global gross domestic product and 7.4 per cent of global exports, demonstrating the bloc's increasing importance to the world's economic activity. Asean is China's largest trading partner, while ranking as the US' fourth-largest trading partner, after Mexico, Canada and China. First Trump term: Unintended beneficiaries During Trump's first presidency, tariffs of 10-50 per cent were imposed on various categories of Chinese products, primarily aimed at addressing concerns over intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, and the substantial trade deficit with China. While tariffs were subsequently halved on the premise that China would import an additional US$200 billion from the US, only around US$30 billion in additional US goods were actually imported to China between 2020 and 2024. The tariff on Chinese imports created an unexpected opportunity for Asean and Mexico through supply chain realignment. Vietnam and Mexico emerged as particular beneficiaries. Vietnam's exports to the US surged from just US$49 billion in 2018 to US$137 billion in 2024, while Mexico's exports rose from US$344 billion to US$506 billion over the same period. The rapid increase can be attributed to the relocation of Chinese manufacturing facilities and rerouting of goods, reflected in the parallel rise in goods imports from China to both Asean countries and Mexico, predominantly in partially finished or finished goods. China's supply chain realignment strategy proved remarkably successful. Mexico is now the largest exporter to the US, replacing China in 2023, while the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) now ranks as the fourth-largest exporter to the US after Mexico, China and Canada. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up Strategic positioning and political complexity This shift was hardly surprising, as Asean has long been strategically important to China from multiple angles: as manufacturing bases, investment destinations and for political influence. The region's significant overseas Chinese population and close proximity to China have helped Asean countries grow closer to the country over the years. Since 2018, the bloc has become a critical hub for Chinese companies seeking to mitigate tariff exposure from the US-China trade war. Chinese firms have rerouted exports through Asean or established factories in countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia to bypass tariffs, making the definition of 'origin of goods' and 'value-adding' increasingly opaque. Deja vu: The second Trump term Fast-forward to 2025, and investors face a deja vu moment as Trump's second presidential term took off with the strongest push yet for broad-based tariffs, maintaining significant focus on China. This reflects growing concerns about America's enormous total trade deficits with the world, which have grown to just shy of US$1 trillion. The US now understands the implications of imposing tariffs on China alone – the supply chain realignment has rendered previous tariffs ineffective in reducing the trade deficit. Asean economies once again find themselves caught in the crossfire between the world's two largest powers. This time, however, the implications are far more significant. The realignment of China's manufacturing supply chains has created jobs and entire industries over the past five years. Another shift could unwind parts of this manufacturing ecosystem and threaten people's livelihoods. The geopolitical balancing act There is also a broader geopolitical challenge. With escalating US-China tensions, Asean faces increasing pressure to align with one side or the other. Thailand and the Philippines, as examples, are notably taking a more muted stance towards geopolitical alignments. This balancing act is particularly delicate – both countries host existing US airbases while also relying heavily on China for investments, tourism and manufacturing. Given China's strong dominance as a trade partner and investor in the region, plus with the US serving as both a major export destination and source of political influence for many Asean economies, this equilibrium requires careful navigation. Asean must continue to strengthen intra-regional ties and leverage trade deals such as the RCEP and CPTPP to insulate itself from global volatility. The path forward for Asean economies must be both strategic and deliberate to safeguard the region's long-term interests. The group should focus on maintaining a delicate balance between the two global superpowers by adopting a neutral stance, while simultaneously strengthening internal resilience through enhanced intra-regional trade and improved competitiveness in manufacturing, trade and foreign direct investments. To prepare for potential geopolitical decoupling, Asean should diversify its network of economic partners and deepen institutional integration, drawing lessons from the European Union to strengthen its collective influence on the global stage. For businesses and investors, this evolving landscape presents dual-edged prospects: risks of supply chain disruptions, but also significant opportunities to position Asean as a key hub in future global trade and supply chain. Implications for bond investors While the temporary pause in new trade tariffs has brought some relief to bond investors, we view Trump 2.0 as bringing unprecedented growth risks for Asean. We expect a further economic decoupling between China and the US, which will negatively impact global growth as trade declines. In the near term, this uncertainty warrants further rate cuts from Asean central banks as inflation stabilises, growth slows and unemployment inches higher. Local currency bonds should therefore remain well-supported. We also expect to see some net international investment position flows from US assets returning to Asia, lending further support to local currency asset prices and Asian currencies. However, we remain mindful of the longer-term effects on potential economic growth from supply chain realignment and global slowdown, which can have lasting impacts on Asean economies. The writer is portfolio manager, Asia Fixed Income, at M&G Investments
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Business Standard
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
China targets 200GW nuclear capacity by 2040 to curb coal reliance
The China Nuclear Energy Association report highlights Beijing's aim to reach 200GW installed nuclear capacity by 2040, shifting away from coal and stabilising its energy mix New Delhi China plans to more than double its nuclear power capacity by 2040 as part of a strategic move to reduce reliance on coal and stabilise its energy mix, the South China Morning Post reported, citing a new report from the China Nuclear Energy Association (CNEA). The report, released on Monday, outlines Beijing's intention to achieve 200 gigawatts (GW) of installed nuclear capacity by the end of the next decade. This would exceed twice the nuclear capacity of the United States, which stood at around 97GW in 2024, according to the US Energy Information Administration. As of the end of 2024, China had 102 reactors either operational or under construction, with a combined capacity of 113GW. Most of these are located in the country's economically developed coastal provinces. A recent Goldman Sachs report noted that China already hosts nearly half of the world's 61 nuclear reactors currently being built. The CNEA estimates that by the end of the 2030s, nuclear energy will account for roughly 10 per cent of the national energy mix. New reactors reinforce nuclear momentum In April, China's State Council approved the construction of 10 more nuclear reactors, signalling ongoing government commitment to nuclear energy as a central pillar of the country's decarbonisation strategy. This marks the fourth consecutive year that Beijing has approved the development of at least 10 new nuclear units. The latest projects are expected to require a total investment of approximately 200 billion yuan ($27 billion). Eight of these reactors will employ China's domestically developed Hualong One design – a third-generation nuclear technology that China is promoting for international adoption. According to experts cited in the report, 'The Hualong One is less vulnerable to earthquakes than other third-generation reactors abroad and has more safety redundancies, meaning we can build more in more places.' Each Hualong One reactor can generate roughly 10 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually – enough to supply power to about one million people. Balancing coal dominance with cleaner options Despite its clean energy ambitions, China remains the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, accounting for over one-third of global emissions in 2023, according to United Nations data. Coal continues to dominate China's energy consumption profile. The nuclear buildout is part of Beijing's broader effort to diversify its power generation base and meet climate goals without compromising energy security. India and the US in context By comparison, India had 8.18GW of nuclear power capacity across 24 reactors in 2024, per a statement by the Department of Atomic Energy. Union Minister Dr Jitendra Singh stated that this figure is projected to grow to 22.48GW by 2031–32. Meanwhile, competition between China and the United States in nuclear energy appears to be escalating. Last month, US President Donald Trump signed executive orders aiming to boost the country's nuclear capacity to approximately 400GW by 2050, Associated Press reported.
The Hindu
6 days ago
- Politics
- The Hindu
Government's decision to increase per-day working hours of APSRTC employees opposed
Leaders of the Andhra Pradesh State Road Transport Corporation (APSRTC) Staff and Workers Federation have called for protests and gate meetings at all the depots across the State on June 19 to oppose the State government's decision to increase working hours to 10-hours-a-day and to allow women to work in night shifts. Speaking at the federation's State committee meeting in Guntur on Sunday, its State president Ch. Sundaraiah and general secretary M. Ayyappa Reddy expressed concern over the government's 'anti-worker policies' and said they would participate in the State-wide protest call given by the Joint Action Committee of Employees and Workers Unions. The federation leaders demanded that the government implement the circular 1/2019 on conductor's job security, cancel the worker-hostile clauses in GO No. 70, and pay all the pending dues to employees and workers. They also demanded immediate constitution of the Pay Revision Commission (PRC) and announcement of Interim Relief (IR). The federation has decided to hold its State conference on June 27 in Vijayawada to discuss the issues affecting conductors and other employees. The leaders also announced plans to hold a State-level 13th conference on October 9-10 in Tirupati, and organise training classes for selected activists in July. They urged the APSRTC management to discuss and resolve the issues affecting employees and workers, and demanded deployment of new buses, recruitment of drivers, conductors and mechanics and payment of all pending dues.
The Hindu
06-06-2025
- Politics
- The Hindu
Now, people can help shape A.P. govt's population management policy
Eluru District Collector K. Vetriselvi on Friday (June 6) said public opinion is being collected by the Planning Department via QR codes to involve the public in shaping the population management policy. The exercise will end on June 20. The Collector unveiled a wall poster titled 'Every Family Matters–Your Opinion Guides Us', published by the Planning Department, at the Collectorate. The Planning Department is collecting public suggestions to ensure people's participation in designing the Population Management Policy, aimed at achieving demographic equilibrium. People can scan the QR code on the poster and respond to nine questions, offering their insights. She noted that the government is preparing long-term plans for the development of every household. She emphasised that this survey not only encourages the youth to build a well-planned future, but also helps working professionals achieve a better work-life balance by offering the needed policy support. District Chief Planning Officer Ch. Vasudeva Rao and staff from his office participated in the event.
Yahoo
04-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Change of venue granted for embattled Madison County Treasurer, upcoming trial moved to Boone County
WINTERSET, Iowa – The upcoming trial against embattled Madison County Treasurer Amanda DeVos, 37, has been moved to Boone County. Hours after delaying a trial hearing on May 19, an attorney for DeVos filed a motion for a change of venue, citing 'extensive media coverage and publicity' following her late January arrest for alleged Felonious Misconduct in Office, Tampering with Records, Fraudulent Practice in the third degree, and third-degree Theft. Motion-for-Change-of-Venue-250519-DeVosDownload The motion was granted on Thursday, with the new venue set for Boone County, about an hour from the courthouse in Winterset where the trial had originally been planned. A trial date for the criminal case had not been officially filed, according to court records. DeVos has been free from jail since posting a $5,000 surety bond shortly after she was arrested for allegedly using her access as county treasurer to alter government records to make it look like she paid for her vehicle registration plates when she had not. DeVos pleaded not guilty. Roughly three weeks later, the Polk County Sheriff's Office announced additional charges were pending against DeVos for an entirely different criminal scenario allegedly involving her property taxes. DeVos is represented by Timothy McCarthy, II, of McCarthy & Hamrock. Her application for a public defender had been denied due to an incomplete application form because she did not disclose what her income was, according to court records. Devos was making $78,787.13 after getting a 3.57% raise, according to online public records posted by the Iowa State Association of Counties. DeVos waived her right to a preliminary hearing in February, around the same time she was temporarily relieved of her duties by the Madison County Board of Supervisors. A new treasurer was appointed. However, due to her position as an elected official, the BOS does not have the power to officially remove DeVos from office, and she was reportedly still collecting her salary and county-supplied benefits for months after her arrest. According to County Attorney Stephen Swanson, DeVos had refused to resign from the position, which forced him to file a Ch. 66 petition in April to have her forcefully removed from the office. He also petitioned for an injunction that would prohibit her from being paid by the county. A judge granted the pause on her salary payments. A Trial Scheduling Conference in that case is scheduled for July 18 at 9 a.m. in Madison County. DeVos has not been charged in connection with the apparent mishandling of county funds, which appears to have plagued nearly every municipality and school district in Madison County. After her arrest, WHO 13 confirmed the City of Winterset received more than $250,000 in funds due for other municipalities and discovered that late property tax payments to the Winterset Community School District forced it to withdraw funds from investment opportunities to cover payroll multiple times. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
