Latest news with #CenterforNear-EarthObjectStudies
UPI
2 days ago
- Science
- UPI
NASA raises chance for asteroid to hit the moon
An artist's illustration of the James Webb Space in space. According to new data, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has increased the likelihood that an object called Asteroid 2024 YR4 will strike the Moon in 2032. NASA Photo/UPI | License Photo June 19 (UPI) -- NASA has announced that an asteroid about 200 feet in diameter is now slightly more likely to crash into the moon. According to the newest data collected, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has refined the expected course for Asteroid 2024 YR4 and has given it an increased 4.3% probability of striking the moon on Dec. 22, 2032. The original likelihood was at 3.8% probability. The space rock is too far off in space to be detected with ground telescopes, but the James Webb Space Telescope, which orbits the sun, was able to take a new look at the space rock earlier this month before it was obscured from view. It was that opportunity that provided the data that led to the changed forecast. Due to YR4's solar orbit, NASA won't be able to view it again until it comes back around the sun in 2028. According to a research paper submitted to the American Astronomical Society journals and published Monday, should the asteroid hit the moon, it could cause a crater as large as around 3,200 feet and release 6.5 megatons of energy. As much as 220 million pounds of lunar material could be released by such an impact, and then as much as 10% of that ejecta could fall to Earth a few days later, so "meteorites are unlikely, though not impossible" according to the paper, but it would create an "eye-catching" meteor shower. However, any moon bits that do come toward the Earth also could increase the meteoroid impact exposure faced by satellites in near-Earth orbit for as long as a decade.
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Asteroid's odds of hitting the Moon have now more than doubled
Earth is safe from asteroid 2024 YR4, but fresh looks at the space rock using Webb and other telescopes have now increased its chances of impacting the Moon. After a brief stint as the highest risk asteroid we know about, 2024 YR4 is now deemed harmless to Earth. In fact, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and the ESA's Near-Earth Objects Coordination Centre (NEOCC) now only give a very slim chance of any threat from it. That probability now sits at just 1 in 120,000, but in 2047, a full 15 years after the 2032 encounter that initially raised so many alarms. However, based on the newest telescopic observations of 2024 YR4, its December 22, 2032 flyby may be the last time it ever passes by our planet. The extreme sensitivity of the James Webb Space Telescope allowed astronomers to continue to observe the asteroid long after it moved beyond the capabilities of Earth-based telescopes. Using the data collected by Webb, scientists with CNEOS updated their calculations of 2024 YR4's orbital path. Back at the end of February, when NASA had ruled out any significant danger to Earth from the asteroid, they also determined there was a 1.7 per cent chance it would strike the Moon. The new data has now increased that probability to 4.3 per cent. That's more than double the initial chance of lunar impact. The latest probability of impact for asteroid 2024 YR4, as of June 3, 2025, at 4.3 per cent of striking the Moon on December 22, 2032. Along the top of the image is NASA's sequence of plots generated from Jan 27 through Feb 23 showing how the asteroid's closest approach to Earh changed as observations refined its orbit. (NASA CNEOS) A 4.3 per cent of impact still counts as a 95.7 per cent chance that it will miss the Moon. So, with it having no chance of hitting Earth on that date, 2024 YR4 could simply slip through lunar orbit with no effect at all — just a telescopic curiosity to observe as it passes by. Still, at an estimated 65-metres wide, when 2024 YR4 was still thought to be a threat to Earth, it was (unofficially) considered to be a 'city-killer' asteroid. It was highly unlikely to have hit anywhere inhabited. However, if it did, that size of asteroid would have caused extensive damage on a local level. For any city in the impact zone, the effects would have been catastrophic. An estimate of the size and shape of asteroid 2024 YR4 based on telescopic observations. (NOIRLab) For comparison, the 20-metre asteroid that exploded over Cheylabinsk on February 15, 2013 produced an airburst — a pressurized wave of air — that shattered windows across the city when it reached the ground. Tiny fragments of the asteroid rained down over the area, with the largest piece, roughly 60 cm wide and with a mass of around 300 kg, punching a hole in the frozen surface of nearby Lake Chebarkul. The airburst that would result from 65-metre 2024 YR4 exploding would be powerful enough to level buildings. While not large enough to produce a crater, the shattered asteroid would likely include several larger pieces that would cause further damage and injuries upon striking the ground. If 2024 YR4 does hit the Moon in 2032, with no atmosphere to slow it down, it would impact with full force, travelling at nearly 13 kilometres per second, or over 46,000 km/h. The Waning Gibbous phase of the Moon on the night of December 22, 2032. (NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio) If it strikes somewhere in the dark region of the surface, the impact will certainly be noticeable from Earth. It wouldn't be powerful enough to affect the Moon's orbit, or knock any significant pieces off the Moon. It would certainly leave behind a crater that an orbiting spacecraft (such as NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter) would be able to find, though. According to NASA, as of now, 2024 YR4 has moved beyond even Webb's ability to observe it, as it is now too close to the Sun. The next 'encounter' with the asteroid will be in 2028, with its closest pass at that time being around 20 times farther than the Moon. Telescopes should be able to find and track it, though, adding more to our knowledge of its orbit, and potentially locking down whether it will hit or miss the Moon when it returns four years later. (Thumbnail image was produced by the author, using photo-editing software, by adding a 3D computer model of asteroid 2024 YR4 to a background image of the Moon taken during NASA's Artemis 1 mission.) Click here to view the video
Wales Online
12-06-2025
- Science
- Wales Online
NASA says there's higher chance Asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the Moon
NASA says there's higher chance Asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the Moon The asteroid was originally projected to hit Earth, but a moon strike is now more likely We now have a more accurate track on Asteroid YR4 An asteroid scientists feared would cause havoc by striking the Earth in the year 2032 now has an increased likelihood of hitting the Moon. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently too distant to detect with telescopes from Earth, but NASA's James Webb Space Telescope collected one more observation of the asteroid before it escaped from view in its orbit around the Sun. With the additional data, experts from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California further refined the asteroid's orbit. The Webb data improved our knowledge of where the asteroid will be on 22 December 22, 2032, by nearly 20%. As a result, the asteroid's probability of impacting the Moon has slightly increased from 3.8% to 4.3%. In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon's orbit. When asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered, the asteroid had a small chance of impacting Earth. After more observations, NASA concluded the object poses no significant impact risk to Earth in 2032 and beyond. As additional data comes in, it is normal for the impact probability to evolve. An international team led by Dr. Andy Rivkin from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, made the observations using Webb's Near-Infrared Camera in May. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now too far away to observe with either space or ground-based telescopes. NASA expects to make further observations when its orbit around the Sun brings it back into the vicinity of Earth in 2028.
Daily Mirror
12-06-2025
- Science
- Daily Mirror
NASA astronomers say it's now 'more likely' asteroid YR4 could hit the Moon
It was initially feared the asteroid would hit Earth, but the odds of a moonstrike have now been increased An asteroid scientists feared would cause havoc by striking the Earth in the year 2032 now has an increased likelihood of hitting the Moon. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently too distant to detect with telescopes from Earth, but NASA's James Webb Space Telescope collected one more observation of the asteroid before it escaped from view in its orbit around the Sun. With the additional data, experts from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California further refined the asteroid's orbit. The Webb data improved our knowledge of where the asteroid will be on 22 December 22, 2032, by nearly 20%. As a result, the asteroid's probability of impacting the Moon has slightly increased from 3.8% to 4.3%. In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon's orbit. When asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered, the asteroid had a small chance of impacting Earth. After more observations, NASA concluded the object poses no significant impact risk to Earth in 2032 and beyond. As additional data comes in, it is normal for the impact probability to evolve. An international team led by Dr. Andy Rivkin from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, made the observations using Webb's Near-Infrared Camera in May. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now too far away to observe with either space or ground-based telescopes. NASA expects to make further observations when its orbit around the Sun brings it back into the vicinity of Earth in 2028.
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon go up again
An asteroid that, until a few months ago, was believed to be a threat to Earth is increasingly looking like it could crash into the Moon in 2032. Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on Dec. 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. Since its discovery, the asteroid has warranted international attention, jumping to the highest asteroid threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. Chances Asteroid 2024 Yr4 Will Hit Moon Increase But Earth Remains In The Clear In February, new ground-based observations dropped those chances of an Earth impact enough that asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer considered a threat to Earth. The international astronomy community continues to closely watch asteroid 2024 YR4, which is no longer visible through ground-based telescopes until 2028. In May, a team led by Andy Rivkin, with Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, used the James Webb Space Telescope's (JWST) Near-Infrared Camera to hone in on 2024 YR4. JWST data, along with expert analysis from Nasa's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, have refined the asteroid's orbit, increasing the chances of a crash with the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032, from 3.8% to 4.3%. In February, the odds of a Moon impact were about 1.7%. However, NASA said if the asteroid does collide with the Moon, it will not alter its orbit. The Moon is covered in crater impacts from other space collisions. Previous observations by JWST helped determine 2024 YR4 is about 200 feet wide, or about the height of a 15-story building, Rivkin wrote in an April blog post for NASA. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has dipped behind the Sun and beyond Webb's view for article source: Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon go up again
