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Irish Times
9 hours ago
- Business
- Irish Times
The Central Bank's hard-landing scenario: corporate tax crashes, budget deficit balloons to €18bn
For obvious reasons, officials in Ireland can't use the term 'soft landing'. It was trotted out so regularly, so erroneously in the late 2000s when the economy was hurtling towards the hardest of hard landings that it has become synonymous with the opposite. If the Central Bank told us the Irish economy was in for a 'soft landing' from the current US tariff debacle, people would panic. Perhaps in reaction to the misplaced optimism of the Celtic Tiger era, we now seem to have an inherent bias towards highlighting negative scenarios. READ MORE [ US tariffs could punch €18bn hole in public finances, Central Bank warns Opens in new window ] We were certainly prepared for a bigger assault from Brexit than the one we actually got. Some call it 'catastrophising', but regulators should take a sober view on things. In an article published alongside its latest quarterly bulletin, the Central Bank lays out three possible scenarios for how US tariffs and greater US protectionism might impact the economy here. In its baseline scenario, which involves 20 per cent tariffs on European Union goods going into the US from the third quarter of this year, with pharmaceuticals and semiconductors exempt, the economy grows by 2 per cent this year, in terms of modified domestic demand, and 2.1 per cent on average in 2026 and 2027, while the State continues to run a budget surplus out to 2030. Even if it won't say it, this is the regulator's 'soft landing' scenario. In a more adverse scenario with pharmaceuticals and semiconductors getting hit by 20 per cent tariffs and with the EU retaliating with 20 per cent tariffs of its own, growth is slower and the budget surplus shrinks to less than 1 per cent. But what grabbed the headlines was the Central Bank 'extreme scenario' which involves the State losing the entire windfall element of its corporate tax base, which is due to peak at €17 billion in 2026, alongside a 20 per cent reduction in multinational investment 'and a corresponding loss of export market share'. [ Rent pressure zone changes will be 'painful' for tenants, Central Bank warns Opens in new window ] This scenario would see the Government's healthy budget surplus – it was €8.9 billion last year – flip to a budget deficit of more than 4 per cent of national income by 2030, equivalent to €17.7 billion. While there are lots of caveats – the scenario assumes the Government takes no corrective action and continues to make contributions to the two long-term savings funds – such an outcome would pitch us back into another period of austerity. It also highlights how much the State's coffers have become intertwined with the financial fortunes of a small number of US multinationals. 'This could be considered a somewhat extreme scenario as it incorporates a loss of all excess CT [corporate tax] by 2030 along with weaker economic activity, but it is illustrative of a key vulnerability for Ireland relating to the future path of the foreign-owned capital stock,' it said. Central Bank director of economics and statistics Robert Kelly denied he was painting too bleak a picture, saying the bank's worst-case scenario did not envisage the possibility of a big multinational firm leaving the jurisdiction because of tariffs or changes to US tax law, which has been the fear since the corporate tax boom started more than a decade ago. The nightmare scenario for Ireland would be for an Apple or an Intel to up sticks and leave. Despite the threat hanging over Ireland's economic model, there are several reasons to believe that corporate tax receipts, which hit a record €28 billion last year (excluding the Apple tax money), will continue to increase in the medium term. For one, the biggest corporate taxpayers here are in the tech and pharmaceutical sectors, both at present exempt from US tariffs. The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC) also expects receipts from the business tax to rise by about €5 billion from 2026 onwards as additional revenue from the new minimum tax rate of 15 per cent over and above the State's headline rate of 12.5 per cent flows into the Exchequer. Big multinationals with a turnover above €750 million have been liable to pay the higher rate since 2024, but are not due to make their initial payments under the new rate until the middle of next year. This is expected to boost tax receipts here by an additional €3 billion next year and €2 billion in 2027. Despite the US signalling its intention to withdraw from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) -brokered deal to establish a minimum global rate, tax authorities here and elsewhere are pushing ahead with it. Several big taxpayers here have been availing of generous tax-cutting capital allowances which are due to run out, meaning they will be liable to pay more tax – another factor likely to drive receipts. Some of the frothier predictions suggest corporate tax receipts here could grow to €40 billion and say we should be saving a lot more than the current allocations to the State's savings funds. The windfall has also coincided with a worrying increase in Government spending, over and above what IFAC deems sustainable. It might be that the bigger threats facing the Irish economy are coming from within – housing, government spending, energy security, the high cost of doing business – rather than those emanating from abroad.
Irish Examiner
14 hours ago
- General
- Irish Examiner
Chance to be part of Cork's €1.825m Red House's history
THE owner of Cork's much-loved Red House was warned by his one-time school history teacher not to muck about with this venerable era private, Leeside residence, with its many rises, and ignominious dips, over more than 200 years of its history: it just about pre-dates the 1815 Battle of Waterloo. Could have met its Waterloo by Wellington Bridge ....but it didn't 'I met my old history teacher, Matt Foley, a few years back at a school reunion and he warned me - in the strongest possible terms - not to change its character,' says the owner, now the vendor of the c 1811 Red House. He had bought it, in a very sorry state, back in 2014 and has since very successfully reversed the ravages of time. A sorry sight and site before salvation came its way In fact, the language used by the retired CBC history teacher (whose family home was over on the Western Road across Wellington Bridge) was a lot stronger than 'the strongest possible terms….' But, the point was made, and not lost on his former pupil who assured his former teacher he had no intention of changing it, he just loved it, had always admired it, and wanted to rescue it. 'I knew the house for years, right back to college days in the 1990s when I lived across the road from it when it had been a family home,' says the Corkman who bought it intending it to be his own family home, having previously lived and worked in Hong Kong and the UK. However, his family and work life now with his US-born wife and children is in Dublin, so having bought, saved and 'lightly restyled' the Red House at very considerable expense, and having of late rented it at the very upper end of the corporate letting scale, has decided to part ways with it, ready for its next life chapter. Sitting pretty Red House has been here in these Property & Home pages before, variously called No 72, Red House, and more properly Lisheen. Red rag-order in 2006 We wrote about it back in 2006 when it was described as a 'Lady in Red, albeit more than slightly down at heel,' having had the ignominy, for a period, of being lived in by squatters who'd started chopping up some of the internal timbers for the fireplace to stay warm. Even despite its poor order of two decades back, it had carried a pre-auction guide/hope of €1.5m to €2m: this was back in roaring Celtic Tiger times when a Sunday's Well house had set a Cork home price record of c€5m and the country was awash in (borrowed) cash. High end finishes now It didn't sell, and so sat for a number of subsequent years, slowly decaying and came back for sale in 2014, all boarded up, faded (pic, top right), a shadow of once-upon a time more glorious days, and sold for €450,000 to its current owner, later described in these pages as 'a dreamer' for the scale of what was taken on. High level section links the now amalgamated home, part Georgian, part Victorian and wholly modernised The couple brought the highly regarded Pat O'Sullivan of Kiosk Architects on board, and then engaged Rose Construction for the herculean task of working with a period home inside and outside, on a challenging riverside and roadside site, in red-rag order, and one which was granted listed building status by Cork City Council after their purchase. Vaulted ceiling with ornate rose: the thorny work was done by Rose Construction Singled out for special protection were large ceiling roses in two of the reception rooms in the c3,800 sq ft 'home of two halves', part dating to the early 1800s, the other Victorian, dating to the 1860s and which at various times were used as one, and sometimes two, residences. The older Georgian/Queen Anne era 'half' also has one of the conserved plasterwork roses crowning a very fine vaulted ceiling, all in any case given due regard as was the owners' and architects' intentions in any case. (The vendors had previous experience of house renovations in older era homes in London and in West Cork.) Opportunity knocks Post the 2014 purchase, it took a few years before work could really start at Lisheen/aka No 72, also previously West View Cottage, and later West View Villa (and, 'the Red House' to the rest of us.) Its latter, finishing up staged were after a certain global pandemic hit, with covid adding to time lines, materials and build costs and restrictions. As well as using Kiosk Architects for the salvation and rebirth of Red House, the couple got full planning for a Kiosk-designed c 1,700 sq ft ultra contemporary one-off in a side garden on the property's overall c 0.25 acre site, and this was offered for sale in 2022 with a €475,000 AMV. Now, more practically, both the site with its positive planning history and the fully reborn Red House with up to six bedrooms and understated yet high-end finishes, top to bottom under a wholly-new roof down into a lower part-basement are rolled into the one package, with a €1.825m guide cited by agent Johnny O'Flynn of Sherry FitzGerald. Mr O'Flynn knows that he is selling a Cork classic, in a hallowed city suburb much valued by medics and other well-heeled professionals and where older era homes now tend to get very costly upgrades when and if selling on. The Price Register shows a half a dozen with a Sundays Well address selling for between €1m and €2.2m, with the boom time era €5m Woodlawn showing as a 2016 resale at €2.195 million. The house immediately downriver of Red House, The Hollies sold in 2016 for a recorded €800,000 and has since had a very costly makeover: the setting right on the river is what makes these one-offs of the Georgian and Victorian eras so highly prized. Red House has possibly the very best or most engaging of River Lee/Sundays Well views, not just from the grounds but from the inside as well: look west/upriver and you see Wellington Bridge/Thomas Davis Bridge and County Hall; look downriver and you see the iconic Shakey Bridge/Daly's Bridge: Cork's Red House is almost as iconic. 'At one stage during the work we had thought about changing the colour to more of a pink, but while we were doing the work the architects started getting letters from neighbours and members of the public saying they really hoped it was going to stay red, and of course it has,' say the owners who could possibly have had red blood on their hands if they veered of the original bolder lipstick red colour at this true on-off. The man behind Red House's full-blooded 21st century restoration and conservation says the first lease they got sight of was in 1804, between a Rt Hon Richard Edmund St Laurence and James Bonwell; then, a 90 year lease between the Earl of Cork and Ossery and a William Newman; next, in 1892, it was leased to a Dominick Daly by Viscount Dungarvan: 'I loved history and had a great history teacher,' says the 2025 vendor, still possibly afraid of being haunted by a certain history teacher, living locally….. Sherry FitzGerald's Johnny O'Flynn chimes in on the sale now to say 'seeped in history and known by Corkonians as 'The Red House', West View Villa is an imposing five / six bedroom detached waterside home, with so much space, it is hard to believe just how centrally located in Cork City you are.' Now includes off-street parking He says home work done here was meticulous, blending charm and originality with modern day comforts, and captivating views from just about every room, with a large double garage with remote control access for off-street parking and private garden on three sides, landscaped by designer Sean Russell. There are some pressed metal interventions in a vertical bay window treatments, one on the main river-and Mardyke facing facade, the other horizontal in the top floor span corridor, with timber sashes also, most with original window shutters. Flooring's a mix of solid timber, reclaimed and Victorian style tiles (sourced in Toledo Spain,) slate and cast iron insert fireplaces, a contemporary two- tone kitchen by Clohane Wood Products Skibbereen, and bathroom and sanitary ware from Bert & May, London. There are up to six bedrooms (two with en suites) and masses of storage on all levels, including a steady temperature lower ground level pantry/wine cellar and basement store, twin gas boilers, alarm and CCTV among the 21st century adaptations to a 220+year old Cork icon. Semi-basement pantry/wine cellar with storage access Selling agents Sherry FitzGerald add 'it's exceptionally rare that properties like this come to the market… even more so ones that have been so meticulously restored to such a high standard.' VERDICT: the only thing a new owner might want to do is change the colour…..if they want to be run out of town, before they ever get to unpack.
Irish Examiner
a day ago
- General
- Irish Examiner
Jennifer Sheahan: I live in a tiny house. Here's how I use mirrors to 'expand' space
If I had to pick one answer to the most frequent questions I receive, it would be mirrors. How do I brighten up my dark room? Mirrors. How do I make my small space feel bigger? Mirrors. How do I add depth and interest to my interior design without breaking the bank? Win the lotto (just kidding — it's mirrors). When it comes to mirrors, more is more. Yet most of us are still thinking about mirrors in the most basic way — a bathroom mirror here, maybe a hallway mirror there. We're missing a trick. I often feel a slight hesitation when I suggest mirrors to clients. I believe there are three reasons for this. Mainly, it is because as a nation, we have a collective terror of appearing vain. It's also partly due to the fact that mirrors don't tend to photograph well, and so we lack inspirational images to stimulate our imaginations. Finally, it's partly due to a fear of going too far and ending up with tacky Celtic Tiger decor. Forget vanity — mirrors done well blend into the background, and anyway, what's wrong with checking yourself out every now and then? Avoiding the tacky look is easy as long as you choose clean lines and avoid gaudy bevels and frames. With that, here are some easy and cost-effective ways to transform your home with the power of mirrors. Double the light If you're dealing with a room that's short on natural light, placing a mirror directly opposite a window can work wonders. This trick effectively 'doubles' your window, bouncing light back into the room and creating more outdoor views. The key here is to make sure the mirror reflects something pleasant, such as leafy greenery or blue (OK, grey) skies. If you have a small living room or dining room, consider cladding an entire wall with a mirror. I know this sounds drastic, but having a frameless wall-to-wall mirror actually makes it blend more seamlessly into the room, and you can tone it down even further by using tinted glass. A mirrored wall. Putting a reflective surface behind your furniture or shelving blurs the visual boundaries and hugely enhances the sense of space in your room, as well as increasing light. In narrow hallways, try placing a full-length mirror on the wall opposite a window (a transom or fanlight over your door is perfect) to draw light down the space. Alternatively, a long horizontal mirror along an adjacent wall will widen the space. Clever angles and placements Aside from increasing light and sense of space, strategic placement of mirrors can be used to create all sorts of visual tricks that will enhance your home. Placing a mirror in the corner of a room, angled to reflect the longest sightline, can make any space appear significantly larger. This works particularly well in bedrooms where you want to create a sense of spaciousness without placing the mirror directly facing the bed. It also works great in any boringly square room to break up the boxy lines. A mirrored wall. While it's tempting to hang every mirror flat against the wall, consider angling them for maximum effect. Tilting a mirror slightly upward (by simply leaning it against the wall, for example) can elongate the reflection and create the illusion of height. We tend to think of mirrors as vertical elements, but placing them horizontally (i.e. on a flat surface) can be transformative. Try a mirrored tray or runner as part of a tablescape to bounce candlelight around the room. Just don't put them on your ceiling, this isn't the Moulin Rouge. Illusion of architecture If your home is lacking period features or interesting architectural details, guess what can help with that? Arched mirrors mimic the shape of windows or doorways, suggesting more space and structure. A pair of tall, slim mirrors flanking a doorway can act like faux windows, lending symmetry and width to an otherwise flat wall. You can also add mirrors above doorways to mimic transom windows, which will add height and light to your room. Garden mirrors in Jennifer Sheahan's patio area. Picture: Moya Nolan A wonderful place to try these illusions is in your garden, especially if you have a small one. Adding mirrors that are designed to look like windows or doorways to your garden wall can transform your cramped courtyard space into an expansive Narnia. Kitchen mirror backsplash I absolutely love a tinted mirror backsplash in a kitchen, big or small, and I feel it's often ignored as an option. It is a brilliant, simple, cost-effective way to make your kitchen feel spacious, bright, and interesting. The argument I often hear is 'won't it get dirty?', to which I say every backsplash will get dirty, but a smooth flat surface is easy to wipe clean, far easier than grout, plus a smoked or tinted mirror is much more forgiving. A mirrored kitchen backsplash. I prefer one custom-sized seamless mirror, which does come with a price tag, especially when you add in cut-outs for sockets and switches, but even still, this will be less expensive than premium stone or designer tiles. Mirrors — especially mirrored backsplashes — don't tend to photograph well, so I implore you to visit some kitchen showrooms to see for yourself. Avoid the faux-antiqued effect in favour of a cleaner, tinted mirror for a cleaner and more sophisticated look. What not to do The biggest mistake I see people making with mirrors is going too small. A tiny mirror on a big wall looks lost and doesn't achieve any of the space-enhancing benefits we're after. Bigger is better here. A good rule of thumb is to take up at least 70% of the available space with a mirror, and don't be afraid to take up the whole wall. A mirrored kitchen backsplash. Another common error is placing mirrors where they'll reflect something unattractive, like the bins or a cluttered corner. Always check what your mirror will show before you hang it. The reflection should show off the best of your home, not highlight its messy areas. Finally, when shopping, don't waste money on fancy frames that you don't need. Mirrors do not need to be expensive. A simple, sleek black or brass frame is elegant and contemporary, or if you really want the mirror to disappear, go frameless for a minimalist look that blends seamlessly into your wall. If you want to spend money, consider spending it on custom mirrors cut to fit your space.
Irish Independent
4 days ago
- Business
- Irish Independent
Credit unions' total loans top €6bn on back of demand for mortgage products
Lending levels have been boosted by credit unions issuing more mortgages to members. In the last year alone, mortgage lending is up by more than a third. Mortgages now make up 10pc of the overall credit union loan books, according to the Irish League of Credit Unions, the representative group for the sector. The league released financial details for the April to June period outlining the performance of its members. Overall, the results showed continued growth among credit unions, with continued expansion in mortgage lending and in the adoption of digital services, the league said. Credit unions issued loans to the value of €685m the second quarter, an 11pc increase on the first three months of the year. The total credit union loan book now stands at €6.08bn. This is the first time since 2008, the peak of the Celtic Tiger, that the loan book of credit unions has topped the €6bn figure, according to Irish League of Credit Unions chief executive David Malone. He said mortgage lending was a growing part of the sector's lending. The loan books of credit unions, which are members of the league, increased to €632m at the end of March, a 5pc increase on the first quarter. This is a growth of 34pc over the year. At the end of the second quarter of this year, mortgages represented 10.4pc of the loan books, up from 8.5pc in March 2024 and 5.7pc in March 2023. The average loan outstanding is now at a record high of €10,617. ADVERTISEMENT The growth in overall lending is in the context of close-to-record-low arrears of just 2.37pc. Recent legislative changes, which are due to come into effect by the end of the summer following Central Bank changes to its rules, mean credit unions will be allowed to almost triple their mortgage lending. Credit unions are now coming together to take on the banks on mortgages. They are to jointly offer mortgages in a move that will deepen the sector's penetration in the home-loans market. A number of larger credit unions already offer mortgages, but each has a different interest rate. The new product, Credit Union Mortgage, will mean there will be a standardised national mortgage, with a set interest rate. Initially, there will be a single mortgage product with a variable interest rate of 3.85pc. The launch of the product for new buyers and existing homeowners is due on a phased basis from next month. Mr Malone said: 'These results reflect the continued trust that communities across Ireland place in their local credit unions. 'Surpassing the €6bn mark in our loan book for the first time since 2008 is a significant milestone, and the consistent growth in mortgage lending shows that members are increasingly turning to credit unions.' He said the sector had achieved near record-low arrears and growing membership. Mr Malone said the sector was eagerly awaiting the finalisation of the Central Bank's 'Consultation on Proposed Changes to the Credit Union Lending Regulations'. With these proposed changes, credit unions could potentially expand their mortgage loan portfolios to more than €5.5bn, he said.
Irish Times
4 days ago
- Irish Times
Discrimination is increasing, with more than one in five adults targeted recently
More than one in five adults in Ireland have recently experienced some form of discrimination, according to data published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). Figures from the CSO's Equality and Discrimination Survey 2024 showed 22 per cent of 7,852 respondents said they had experienced discrimination in the two years before being interviewed. This represents an increase of four per cent from the last survey, which was carried out in the first quarter of 2019. The most common places people experienced discrimination were in the workplace, reported by seven per cent, while the most common social settings were retail and hospitality, cited by one in 20 cases. Race was the most common perceived ground for discrimination in social settings , at 33 per cent, with age also a significant factor at 15 per cent. READ MORE Overall, the main grounds for discrimination in the workplace was race, at 27 per cent, followed by gender at 24 per cent and socio-economic background in third place, at 21 per cent. The most common form of workplace discrimination was bullying or harassment, reported by more than one-third of people. Eighteen per cent of people who experienced discrimination said they had a good knowledge of their rights. By far the most common action taken in response was verbal, with 16 per cent of respondents taking such action by bringing the issues concerned to a manager, a service provider or support organisation. One per cent took legal action. Overall, the highest rates of discrimination were reported by people whose sexual orientation was gay or lesbian, at 59 per cent, or bisexual, at 55 per cent. [ Marriage equality 10 years on: A boy sees us hold hands and says 'I f***ing hate gay people' Opens in new window ] [ Ireland has 10th smallest gender equality gap in the world Opens in new window ] Nearly half (46 per cent) of people who identified as transgender or non-binary had experienced discrimination of some form in the previous two years, double the prevalence among those who were cisgender, at 23 per cent. Half of people of 'Black Irish', 'Black African' or 'other Black background' had experienced discrimination, compared with just one in five people whose ethnicity was identified as 'White Irish'. Members of the Irish Traveller and Roma community also experienced high levels of discrimination, at 42 per cent.
