Latest news with #Cambodian
Business Times
an hour ago
- Business
- Business Times
Thai stocks may fall to Covid lows amid political crisis: analyst
[SINGAPORE] Thailand's stock market cannot catch a break – the fallout from a major political crisis may further rock the worst-performing market in the world this year. Amid the existing headwinds from tariff uncertainty and the faltering tourism revenue, the Stock Exchange of Thailand's (SET) benchmark index has already wilted 23.8 per cent since the start of the year as at Friday (Jun 20), placing it last among all global equity indices, according to Bloomberg data. The market sell-off intensified in recent days as political jitters flared, following a leaked phone call between officials in Bangkok and Phnom Penh which heightened tensions along the Cambodian border. With economic headwinds already pressuring sentiment, analysts warn the bloodbath on the bourse may not yet be over. 'If foreign fund outflows accelerate and the prime minister faces calls to resign or a no-confidence vote, the SET Index could test 2020 Covid lows,' said Manish Bhargava, chief executive at Straits Investment Management. The index had fallen to a low of 969.1 points in March 2020, a level not seen since late-2011. Thailand's stock exchange was the worst-performing bourse in Asean on Thursday, with the SET Index plunging 2.4 per cent to 1068.7 – its sharpest drop this year – after the call was leaked on Wednesday. While other regional markets also posted losses, they did not match the scale of the Thai sell-off, underscoring growing investor unease as the kingdom faces domestic instability and macro headwinds. The losses came as a leaked phone call between Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and former Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen on Wednesday incited the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) to announce its exit from the ruling coalition government. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up BJT's withdrawal leaves the ruling coalition, led by Paetongtarn's Pheu Thai Party, with a slim majority by just 18 seats. As calls for her resignation escalate and other coalition partners threaten to withdraw, uncertainty has arisen over the possibility of a Cabinet reshuffle, or a snap election that may lead to a political stalemate. This could mean a three to six-month wait for a new government to take office, said CGS International (CGSI) analyst Kasem Prunratanamala in a note on Wednesday night. 'We believe that it would be difficult for the SET to perform during this period.' Bhargava noted: 'Key sectors that are sensitive to political stability – banks, infrastructure and utilities – will likely lead declines.' Others, however, remained optimistic. OCBC Asean economists Lavanya Venkateswaran and Jonathan Ng maintained a baseline scenario of the political situation staying contained in a note on Jun 18, citing Paetongtarn's reconciliatory tone. The SET Index closed lower on Friday at 1067.6 points, falling 0.1 per cent. Tourist slump A slump in tourist arrivals to Thailand has reverberated through its economy, with the sector accounting for around 12 per cent of gross domestic product and employing more than 20 per cent of workers in 2024, according to the Bank of Thailand (BOT). Foreign tourist arrivals to the country dipped 11 per cent in May from the previous month, continuing what has been a slow start to the year for the industry. The 14.3 million tourist arrivals during the first five months of 2025 were down 2.7 per cent from the previous corresponding period last year, and brought in 1.9 per cent less revenue at about 668.4 billion baht (S$26.2 billion), according to a Bank of America note. The bourse's tourism sector, comprising stocks including spa operator Siam Wellness Group and hotel operators Central Plaza Hotel and Erawan Group, has fallen about 23.4 per cent since the start of the year. But hopes of a sector-wide revival have also led some analysts to look with more optimism at stocks that have been battered hard by the slump. 'The tourism sector has already priced in the bad news,' UOB said in a Jun 5 note, naming stocks such as Erawan Group and mall operator Central Pattana as rebound plays. 'We expect tourist arrivals to recover in the third quarter of 2025,' said UOB analysts Kitpon Praipaisarnkit and Krit Tanarattananon. Yet while the tourism sector's dips may have bottomed out, CGSI analyst Thanapol Jiratanakij does not foresee a 'swift recovery' in arrivals – largely owing to the declining popularity of the nation among Chinese tourists. Increasing safety concerns from incidents such as the abduction of a Chinese actor in January and an earthquake in March have put off some Chinese nationals, who have turned towards domestic tourism and other regional alternatives for leisure travel. Existing headwinds to tourist arrivals have also hit the country's retail sector, highlighted by unlisted retailer King Power's request to terminate its duty-free concession contracts with Airports of Thailand. Maybank had earlier downgraded the broader retail sector to neutral, with companies such as department store operator Central Retail receiving 'hold' ratings. The bank cited sector-wide headwinds in muted consumption, falling tourist arrivals and a subdued economic outlook. 'Restoring confidence among Chinese tourists will require real improvements in safety and perception,' CGSI's Thanapol said. 'In this regard, we believe the government still has considerable work to do.' But as Paetongtarn's leadership remains uncertain, such efforts to boost the domestic economy may no longer be on the cards. 'The timing could not be more inconvenient considering (the) external headwinds,' said OCBC's Venkateswaran and Ng. As observers await the BOT's policy decision on Jun 25, ANZ Asia economist Krystal Tan expects the central bank to hold its benchmark rate at 1.75 per cent until the fourth quarter – but a worsening political gridlock may force the BOT into a rate cut. This may provide a catalyst to Thai stocks amid the wavering political situation, said CGSI's Kasem. He maintained the index's target at 1,200 points, citing its relative undervaluation to its peers.
The Star
an hour ago
- Politics
- The Star
People's Party rules out forming government with Anutin as PM
BANGKOK: People's Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut (pic) stated on Friday (June 20) that there is no possibility of the People's Party and Bhumjaithai Party forming a government with Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul as Prime Minister. Natthaphong made these comments following the political turmoil sparked by the leaked phone call between Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen. He noted that Paetongtarn has lost public confidence, and resignation is not a viable option under the current circumstances. He stated that the only solution is to dissolve the parliament, adding that with the remaining prime ministerial candidates, he believes none can provide a way forward for the country. He suggested that coalition parties would negotiate with Pheu Thai to secure as many ministerial positions as possible, rather than focusing on the country's issues. Despite this, he acknowledged that the current Pheu Thai government remains united but would operate with a fragile majority, undermining investor confidence. Natthaphong commented that the opposition might hold a no-confidence debate against the government, and the opposition is ready to fully perform its role as a check on power, pressuring the prime minister to dissolve parliament and return power to the people. Asked whether the People's Party would form a government with Bhumjaithai Party and nominate Anutin as Prime Minister, he firmly replied, 'Not at all. Our prime ministerial candidate list has been clear from the start—we cannot support anyone for the role at this time to resolve the situation.' On the issue of unity, Natthaphong expressed that it should always be present, but he opposed using the current internal political conflict and the national situation to fuel populist, nationalist sentiments that could call for extra-constitutional actions. He stated that the prime minister's visit to Ubon Ratchathani to work with the 2nd Army Region Chief was appropriate and emphasised the importance of maintaining civilian government leadership over the military. He expressed hope that the prime minister would perform her duties well to restore public confidence. When asked if ongoing protests might lead to actions outside the law, he stated that while people want a change of leadership, there are various ways to achieve it. 'The method we disagree with most is the call for extra-constitutional power leading to a coup,' he said. 'If the people truly want a way out, I believe the most appropriate solution is a new election, allowing the people's voice to decide the country's future.' When asked about claims from the government side regarding a "snake in the grass" within the People's Party, Natthaphong clarified that he had previously invited anyone with such claims to reveal names for fairness, so that the concerned parties could respond. He personally expressed confidence in all his fellow party members and reaffirmed that there is no truth to the allegations. He further stated that the formation of a government depends on the equation at hand, noting that at present, either the People's Party, Pheu Thai, and Bhumjaithai Party must unite to secure a majority and move forward. Natthaphong emphasised that the People's Party's stance remains clear: it will not join the government. - The Nation/ANN
Business Times
an hour ago
- Business
- Business Times
Thai stocks may fall to Covid lows amid political crisis: analysts
[SINGAPORE] Thailand's stock market cannot catch a break – the fallout from a major political crisis may further rock the worst-performing market in the world this year. Amid the existing headwinds from tariff uncertainty and the faltering tourism revenue, the Stock Exchange of Thailand's (SET) benchmark index has already wilted 23.8 per cent since the start of the year as at Friday (Jun 20), placing it last among all global equity indices, according to Bloomberg data. The market sell-off intensified in recent days as political jitters flared, following a leaked phone call between officials in Bangkok and Phnom Penh which heightened tensions along the Cambodian border. With economic headwinds already pressuring sentiment, analysts warn the bloodbath on the bourse may not yet be over. 'If foreign fund outflows accelerate and the prime minister faces calls to resign or a no-confidence vote, the SET Index could test 2020 Covid lows,' said Manish Bhargava, chief executive at Straits Investment Management. The index had fallen to a low of 969.1 points in March 2020, a level not seen since late-2011. Thailand's stock exchange was the worst-performing bourse in Asean on Thursday, with the SET Index plunging 2.4 per cent to 1068.7 – its sharpest drop this year – after the call was leaked on Wednesday. While other regional markets also posted losses, they did not match the scale of the Thai sell-off, underscoring growing investor unease as the kingdom faces domestic instability and macro headwinds. The losses came as a leaked phone call between Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and former Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen on Wednesday incited the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) to announce its exit from the ruling coalition government. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up BJT's withdrawal leaves the ruling coalition, led by Paetongtarn's Pheu Thai Party, with a slim majority by just 18 seats. As calls for her resignation escalate and other coalition partners threaten to withdraw, uncertainty has arisen over the possibility of a Cabinet reshuffle, or a snap election that may lead to a political stalemate. This could mean a three to six-month wait for a new government to take office, said CGS International (CGSI) analyst Kasem Prunratanamala in a note on Wednesday night. 'We believe that it would be difficult for the SET to perform during this period.' Bhargava noted: 'Key sectors that are sensitive to political stability – banks, infrastructure and utilities – will likely lead declines.' Others, however, remained optimistic. OCBC Asean economists Lavanya Venkateswaran and Jonathan Ng maintained a baseline scenario of the political situation staying contained in a note on Jun 18, citing Paetongtarn's reconciliatory tone. The SET Index closed lower on Friday at 1067.6 points, falling 0.1 per cent. Tourist slump A slump in tourist arrivals to Thailand has reverberated through its economy, with the sector accounting for around 12 per cent of gross domestic product and employing more than 20 per cent of workers in 2024, according to the Bank of Thailand (BOT). Foreign tourist arrivals to the country dipped 11 per cent in May from the previous month, continuing what has been a slow start to the year for the industry. The 14.3 million tourist arrivals during the first five months of 2025 were down 2.7 per cent from the previous corresponding period last year, and brought in 1.9 per cent less revenue at about 668.4 billion baht (S$26.2 billion), according to a Bank of America note. The bourse's tourism sector, comprising stocks including spa operator Siam Wellness Group and hotel operators Central Plaza Hotel and Erawan Group, has fallen about 23.4 per cent since the start of the year. But hopes of a sector-wide revival have also led some analysts to look with more optimism at stocks that have been battered hard by the slump. 'The tourism sector has already priced in the bad news,' UOB said in a Jun 5 note, naming stocks such as Erawan Group and mall operator Central Pattana as rebound plays. 'We expect tourist arrivals to recover in the third quarter of 2025,' said UOB analysts Kitpon Praipaisarnkit and Krit Tanarattananon. Yet while the tourism sector's dips may have bottomed out, CGSI analyst Thanapol Jiratanakij does not foresee a 'swift recovery' in arrivals – largely owing to the declining popularity of the nation among Chinese tourists. Increasing safety concerns from incidents such as the abduction of a Chinese actor in January and an earthquake in March have put off some Chinese nationals, who have turned towards domestic tourism and other regional alternatives for leisure travel. Existing headwinds to tourist arrivals have also hit the country's retail sector, highlighted by unlisted retailer King Power's request to terminate its duty-free concession contracts with Airports of Thailand. Maybank had earlier downgraded the broader retail sector to neutral, with companies such as department store operator Central Retail receiving 'hold' ratings. The bank cited sector-wide headwinds in muted consumption, falling tourist arrivals and a subdued economic outlook. 'Restoring confidence among Chinese tourists will require real improvements in safety and perception,' CGSI's Thanapol said. 'In this regard, we believe the government still has considerable work to do.' But as Paetongtarn's leadership remains uncertain, such efforts to boost the domestic economy may no longer be on the cards. 'The timing could not be more inconvenient considering (the) external headwinds,' said OCBC's Venkateswaran and Ng. As observers await the BOT's policy decision on Jun 25, ANZ Asia economist Krystal Tan expects the central bank to hold its benchmark rate at 1.75 per cent until the fourth quarter – but a worsening political gridlock may force the BOT into a rate cut. This may provide a catalyst to Thai stocks amid the wavering political situation, said CGSI's Kasem. He maintained the index's target at 1,200 points, citing its relative undervaluation to its peers.
RTHK
an hour ago
- Business
- RTHK
Thai PM meets army commander in bid to save coalition
Thai PM meets army commander in bid to save coalition Paetongtarn Shinawatra speaks with Lieutenant General Boonsin Padklang in Ubon Ratchathani province as part of an effort to save her job. Photo: Reuters Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra held make-up talks on Friday with an army commander she criticised in a leaked phone call as she struggled to defuse a crisis threatening to topple her government. The daughter of billionaire ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra and in office for less than a year, Paetongtarn is facing calls to quit or announce an election as anger flares over the call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen. Her main coalition partner, the conservative Bhumjaithai party, pulled out on Wednesday, saying she had insulted the country and the army and leaving her government on the point of collapse. She suffered another blow on Friday as reports emerged that another coalition partner was threatening to quit unless she stepped down as prime minister. The crisis has sent the Thai stock market plunging to a five-year low and comes as the kingdom struggles to fire up its sluggish economy, with US President Donald Trump's threatened trade tariffs looming. Paetongtarn, 38, visited troops in northeast Thailand on Friday to patch things up with Lieutenant General Boonsin Padklang after she was caught disparaging him as an "opponent" during the call with Hun Sen. Boonsin commands Thai forces along the border with Cambodia, where a long-running dispute flared into deadly clashes last month, and Paetongtarn's criticism of him drew accusations of disloyalty from right-wing nationalist critics. Paetongtarn said after their meeting that the matter was settled. "It went very well. I've spoken to the commander and there's no longer any issue," she told reporters. For his part, Boonsin said "everything is normal". The meeting with Boonsin followed a public apology from Paetongtarn – at a news conference flanked by military and police chiefs – on Thursday as pressure on her mounted. Paetongtarn was criticised as being weak and deferential in the call with Hun Sen, a veteran politician known as a wily operator, but her comments about the army commander were potentially the most damaging to her. Thailand's armed forces have long played a powerful role in the kingdom's politics and politicians are usually careful not to antagonise them. The apology and apparent reconciliation with the army commander may not be enough to save Paetongtarn's premiership. The departure of Bhumjaithai has left the government's coalition with a razor-thin majority in parliament and losing another partner would likely see it collapse. There was a glimmer of good news for Paetongtarn on Friday morning as the conservative Democrat Party pledged to stay in the coalition. However, Public broadcaster ThaiPBS reported that the United Thai Nation (UTN) party, which has 36 seats and is now the biggest party in the coalition after Pheu Thai, is considering quitting. The broadcaster said UTN was going to issue an ultimatum to Paetongtarn: either she quits as premier or they withdraw, bringing down the government. (AFP)
.JPG%3Fwidth%3D1260%26fit%3Dcover%26gravity%3Dfaces%26dpr%3D2%26quality%3Dmedium%26source%3Dnar-cms%26format%3Dauto%26height%3D630&w=3840&q=100)
Nikkei Asia
an hour ago
- Politics
- Nikkei Asia
Paetongtarn stays as PM as partners jockey for ministerial posts
BANGKOK -- The withdrawal of a key partner from Thailand's ruling coalition has opened the way for smaller parties to demand more influence, analysts say, as Paetongtarn Shinawatra stays in the prime minister's post, and with her coalition now holding a slim House majority. The current coalition now comprises 11 parties, led by Paetongtarn's Pheu Thai Party. After the Bhumjaithai Party's exit announcement on Wednesday over a leaked audio clip of a conversation between Paetongtarn and former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, other parties called urgent meetings to discuss whether to remain loyal to the Thai prime minister.
