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Time of India
19 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction: Meltdown as prices fall by Rs 600/10 gram amid profit booking. Can bulls stage a comeback?
Gold prices fell on Friday as investors took refuge in the greenback amid growing tensions between Israel and Iran. Moreover, a status quo on the US interest rate has helped the dollar index (DXY) strengthen, reducing some appeal in the yellow metal. The domestic gold prices fell sharply taking cues from the international prices. Gold rate today On the MCX, the August Gold futures were trading at Rs 98,664, down by Rs 665 or 0.67% from the Thursday closing price. Meanwhile, gold contracts on the COMEX were hovering around $3,367.20 per troy ounce, plunging by $40.90 or 1.20%. The movement in gold rates are inversely related to the dollar movement. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the returns on dollar-denominated assets like the US treasury bonds or savings accounts become less attractive and hence global investors may move their money to countries with higher interest rates, reducing demand for USD. Commenting on the action, Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services said that the breather this week was on profit-booking, after the U.S. Fed's hawkish comments on interest rates and easing geo-political risk premium. The Street awaits U.S. President Donald Trump's decision if the US will enter the Iran-Israel war in two weeks. "On charts prices may find some resistance around Rs 99,300-99,650, while on the downside support is seen at Rs 98,000-97,650," Mer said. The price of physical gold in Delhi-NCR market is still above the Rs 1 lakh mark. This includes a 3% GST levy. Renisha Chainani, Head - Research at Augmont also sees profit-booking in gold after record highs of Rs 1,01,078 per 10 gram on the MCX. "Precious metals have reversed as support from growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is offset by a stronger dollar overall and the possibility of fewer interest rate reductions from the US," Chainani said. Technical triggers "Gold prices are consolidating around record-high levels in the range of Rs 99,000($3,360) and Rs 101,000 ($3,475). Despite the Fed's hawkish tone, ongoing geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel continue to offer downside protection for gold, Jateen Trivedi, Vice President Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities opines. "The broader trend remains range-bound to positive, with a key support level seen at $3,290, and strong resistance near $3,500 on Comex. Unless there is a clear resolution on geopolitical fronts or a shift in Fed commentary, gold is likely to stay buoyant within this broad band," he added. Silver price today The July silver futures plunged by Rs 1,395 or 1.3% and were trading around Rs 1,05,998. On the COMEX, silver contracts fell by $1.128 or 3.06% per troy ounce to trade around $35.78. Silver prices have retraced from its high, next support is Rs 105,300($35.50), said Chainani, adding that prices should sustain this support for the bull trend to continue. If this support is broken, the next downside level is Rs 104,000 ($34.50), he added. Also Read: Commodity Radar: MCX crude oil futures cross 200-DMA amid Israel-Iran tension. Can it breach this crucial resistance zone? ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Economic Times
19 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Gold price prediction: Meltdown as prices fall by Rs 600/10 gram amid profit booking. Can bulls stage a comeback?
Gold prices fell on Friday as the dollar strengthened amid US Fed's hawkish stance and cooling geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Profit-booking also weighed on sentiment, with gold dropping on both MCX and COMEX. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Gold rate today Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Technical triggers Silver price today Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Gold prices fell on Friday as investors took refuge in the greenback amid growing tensions between Israel and Iran. Moreover, a status quo on the US interest rate has helped the dollar index (DXY) strengthen, reducing some appeal in the yellow metal. The domestic gold prices fell sharply taking cues from the international the MCX, the August Gold futures were trading at Rs 98,664, down by Rs 665 or 0.67% from the Thursday closing price. Meanwhile, gold contracts on the COMEX were hovering around $3,367.20 per troy ounce, plunging by $40.90 or 1.20%.The movement in gold rates are inversely related to the dollar movement. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the returns on dollar-denominated assets like the US treasury bonds or savings accounts become less attractive and hence global investors may move their money to countries with higher interest rates, reducing demand for on the action, Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services said that the breather this week was on profit-booking, after the U.S. Fed's hawkish comments on interest rates and easing geo-political risk Street awaits U.S. President Donald Trump's decision if the US will enter the Iran-Israel war in two weeks."On charts prices may find some resistance around Rs 99,300-99,650, while on the downside support is seen at Rs 98,000-97,650," Mer price of physical gold in Delhi-NCR market is still above the Rs 1 lakh mark. This includes a 3% GST Chainani, Head - Research at Augmont also sees profit-booking in gold after record highs of Rs 1,01,078 per 10 gram on the MCX."Precious metals have reversed as support from growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is offset by a stronger dollar overall and the possibility of fewer interest rate reductions from the US," Chainani said."Gold prices are consolidating around record-high levels in the range of Rs 99,000($3,360) and Rs 101,000 ($3,475).Despite the Fed's hawkish tone, ongoing geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel continue to offer downside protection for gold, Jateen Trivedi, Vice President Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities opines. "The broader trend remains range-bound to positive, with a key support level seen at $3,290, and strong resistance near $3,500 on Comex. Unless there is a clear resolution on geopolitical fronts or a shift in Fed commentary, gold is likely to stay buoyant within this broad band," he July silver futures plunged by Rs 1,395 or 1.3% and were trading around Rs 1,05,998. On the COMEX, silver contracts fell by $1.128 or 3.06% per troy ounce to trade around $ prices have retraced from its high, next support is Rs 105,300($35.50), said Chainani, adding that prices should sustain this support for the bull trend to continue. If this support is broken, the next downside level is Rs 104,000 ($34.50), he added.
Time of India
a day ago
- Business
- Time of India
Silver's breakout year: Why poor man's gold is outshining its richer cousin
Long dismissed as gold 's cheaper cousin, silver is now taking center stage in global metals markets. Prices have surged to fresh record highs, fuelled by a potent mix of bullish fundamentals, rising industrial demand, and growing strategic interest from institutions and even central banks. A sharp correction in the gold-silver ratio has further bolstered silver's appeal, prompting analysts to suggest this rally may be just getting started. Silver futures for July expiry hit a new all-time high of Rs 1,09,748 per kilogram on MCX on Wednesday, breaking Tuesday's record. The rally extended further in September contracts, which touched Rs 1,11,000 per kilogram. This marks a nearly 25% rise from silver's all-time low of Rs 88,050 per kg, underscoring the metal's spectacular reversal in fortunes. Globally, silver prices were steady around $36.72 per ounce on Thursday, holding close to the 13-year high of $37.40 per ounce reached earlier in the week. Though domestic prices cooled slightly on June 19 to Rs 1,08,300/kg, analysts attribute the dip to minor profit-booking by traders, not a weakening of trend. In sharp contrast, gold prices have softened over the last two sessions. Gold futures for August delivery slipped to Rs 99,329 per 10 grams on Wednesday, down 0.2%, even after breaching Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams for the first time earlier this month. The divergence has narrowed the gold-silver ratio, once above 100 in April and May, to about 91 now, further strengthening silver's case. What's driving the silver surge? At the heart of silver's breakout rally is a potent combination of rising industrial demand, structural supply deficits, and a macroeconomic backdrop that's favouring safe-haven assets. 'COMEX silver surged to a 13-year high of $37.40 per ounce, while MCX silver prices rallied to a record high of Rs 109,748/kg on Wednesday, driven by strong safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions,' said Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research at Kotak Securities. Chainwala noted that silver's dual identity, as both an industrial commodity and a precious metal, makes it uniquely positioned. 'This allows it to benefit from heightened risk aversion as well as from long-term trends in renewable energy and technological advancement,' she said. According to Chainwala, silver's critical applications in solar energy, electronics, EVs, and 5G technology have driven demand to record levels. In 2024, industrial demand hit a new peak of 680.5 million ounces, while global mine supply has struggled to keep pace after peaking in 2016. Despite a modest 2% supply uptick and a projected 1% dip in total demand in 2025, the market is bracing for a steep deficit of 117.6 million ounces. The gold-silver ratio: Catalyst for a catch-up rally The sharp correction in the gold-silver ratio has also triggered aggressive positioning in silver. Historically, a high ratio indicates that silver is undervalued relative to gold, and reversion often leads to silver outperforming. 'The gold-silver ratio has rarely been this high historically and we are now seeing it start to correct. I believe it has a long way to go,' said Brad Smoling, Managing Director at Smoling Stockbroking. With gold currently at $3,411 an ounce and silver at $36, the ratio stands around 93. To return to the long-term average of 70, silver would need to climb to $48 per ounce, assuming gold prices remain unchanged. Smoling also pointed to long-standing structural issues in the silver market. 'The silver price has been suppressed by a concentrated short position held by a handful of bullion banks on the Comex exchange. This has been the case for decades,' he said. 'But we are now at the point where the physical shortfall in silver supply for the past five years is no longer controlled by the futures market. It is such a small market,' Smoling said. Millennials, institutions, and a changing investment narrative Silver's affordability compared to gold, especially at a time when gold trades above Rs 99,000 per 10 grams, is making it increasingly attractive to newer generations of investors. Analysts say millennials and Gen Z are driving a shift toward silver as both a tactical bet and a long-term play. 'Silver remains more affordable than gold, while also offering broader exposure to the booming green and tech-driven industrial sectors,' Chainwala said. Institutional interest is rising too, with ETF holdings up 2.2 million ounces in a single day last week. In a landmark development, Russia's plans to purchase $535 million worth of silver over the next three years marks the first known central bank entry into the silver market in recent history, signalling the metal's growing strategic importance. 'The biggest long-term issue now being realised is that so much silver has been consumed or destroyed, unlike gold, we will be struggling to meet global demands from this point on,' Smoling added. Cautious optimism: Profit-booking or just a pause? While silver eased slightly on Thursday, analysts say this is a natural breather. 'Taking partial profits at elevated levels is advisable to lock in gains while maintaining exposure to further upside,' said Chainwala. 'Long-term investors should view pullbacks as buying opportunities.' Chainwala forecasts silver could climb toward $40 per ounce this year, with a possible extension to $50 by the end of 2026. On the domestic front, MCX silver could test Rs 1,25,000 per kilogram, with support levels around Rs 1,01,300/kg over the next six months. Smoling, meanwhile, urged investors to be selective in their exposure. 'I advise my clients to consider some physical metal and good quality silver mining shares. I would avoid a lot of the ETFs and other paper silver investments.' With geopolitical tensions brewing, particularly in the Middle East, and the U.S. Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance on inflation and interest rates, silver is enjoying a rare alignment of factors that support both short-term rallies and long-term revaluation. Once a sidelined asset, silver is now being re-rated, not just as an industrial input or inflation hedge, but as a strategic investment that combines affordability, scarcity, and essential utility. And with both investors and institutions waking up to its promise, the silver story may just be entering its most consequential chapter yet. Also read | Explained: Why gold beat Euro to become the world's second-largest reserve asset ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Economic Times
a day ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Silver's breakout year: Why poor man's gold is outshining its richer cousin
Long dismissed as gold's cheaper cousin, silver is now taking center stage in global metals markets. Prices have surged to fresh record highs, fuelled by a potent mix of bullish fundamentals, rising industrial demand, and growing strategic interest from institutions and even central banks. A sharp correction in the gold-silver ratio has further bolstered silver's appeal, prompting analysts to suggest this rally may be just getting started. ADVERTISEMENT Silver futures for July expiry hit a new all-time high of Rs 1,09,748 per kilogram on MCX on Wednesday, breaking Tuesday's record. The rally extended further in September contracts, which touched Rs 1,11,000 per kilogram. This marks a nearly 25% rise from silver's all-time low of Rs 88,050 per kg, underscoring the metal's spectacular reversal in fortunes. Globally, silver prices were steady around $36.72 per ounce on Thursday, holding close to the 13-year high of $37.40 per ounce reached earlier in the week. Though domestic prices cooled slightly on June 19 to Rs 1,08,300/kg, analysts attribute the dip to minor profit-booking by traders, not a weakening of trend. In sharp contrast, gold prices have softened over the last two sessions. Gold futures for August delivery slipped to Rs 99,329 per 10 grams on Wednesday, down 0.2%, even after breaching Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams for the first time earlier this month. The divergence has narrowed the gold-silver ratio, once above 100 in April and May, to about 91 now, further strengthening silver's case. At the heart of silver's breakout rally is a potent combination of rising industrial demand, structural supply deficits, and a macroeconomic backdrop that's favouring safe-haven assets. ADVERTISEMENT 'COMEX silver surged to a 13-year high of $37.40 per ounce, while MCX silver prices rallied to a record high of Rs 109,748/kg on Wednesday, driven by strong safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions,' said Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research at Kotak noted that silver's dual identity, as both an industrial commodity and a precious metal, makes it uniquely positioned. 'This allows it to benefit from heightened risk aversion as well as from long-term trends in renewable energy and technological advancement,' she said. ADVERTISEMENT According to Chainwala, silver's critical applications in solar energy, electronics, EVs, and 5G technology have driven demand to record levels. In 2024, industrial demand hit a new peak of 680.5 million ounces, while global mine supply has struggled to keep pace after peaking in 2016. Despite a modest 2% supply uptick and a projected 1% dip in total demand in 2025, the market is bracing for a steep deficit of 117.6 million sharp correction in the gold-silver ratio has also triggered aggressive positioning in silver. Historically, a high ratio indicates that silver is undervalued relative to gold, and reversion often leads to silver outperforming. ADVERTISEMENT 'The gold-silver ratio has rarely been this high historically and we are now seeing it start to correct. I believe it has a long way to go,' said Brad Smoling, Managing Director at Smoling Stockbroking. With gold currently at $3,411 an ounce and silver at $36, the ratio stands around 93. To return to the long-term average of 70, silver would need to climb to $48 per ounce, assuming gold prices remain unchanged. Smoling also pointed to long-standing structural issues in the silver market. 'The silver price has been suppressed by a concentrated short position held by a handful of bullion banks on the Comex exchange. This has been the case for decades,' he said. ADVERTISEMENT 'But we are now at the point where the physical shortfall in silver supply for the past five years is no longer controlled by the futures market. It is such a small market,' Smoling affordability compared to gold, especially at a time when gold trades above Rs 99,000 per 10 grams, is making it increasingly attractive to newer generations of investors. Analysts say millennials and Gen Z are driving a shift toward silver as both a tactical bet and a long-term play.'Silver remains more affordable than gold, while also offering broader exposure to the booming green and tech-driven industrial sectors,' Chainwala said. Institutional interest is rising too, with ETF holdings up 2.2 million ounces in a single day last a landmark development, Russia's plans to purchase $535 million worth of silver over the next three years marks the first known central bank entry into the silver market in recent history, signalling the metal's growing strategic importance.'The biggest long-term issue now being realised is that so much silver has been consumed or destroyed, unlike gold, we will be struggling to meet global demands from this point on,' Smoling silver eased slightly on Thursday, analysts say this is a natural breather. 'Taking partial profits at elevated levels is advisable to lock in gains while maintaining exposure to further upside,' said Chainwala. 'Long-term investors should view pullbacks as buying opportunities.'Chainwala forecasts silver could climb toward $40 per ounce this year, with a possible extension to $50 by the end of 2026. On the domestic front, MCX silver could test Rs 1,25,000 per kilogram, with support levels around Rs 1,01,300/kg over the next six meanwhile, urged investors to be selective in their exposure. 'I advise my clients to consider some physical metal and good quality silver mining shares. I would avoid a lot of the ETFs and other paper silver investments.'With geopolitical tensions brewing, particularly in the Middle East, and the U.S. Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance on inflation and interest rates, silver is enjoying a rare alignment of factors that support both short-term rallies and long-term a sidelined asset, silver is now being re-rated, not just as an industrial input or inflation hedge, but as a strategic investment that combines affordability, scarcity, and essential utility. And with both investors and institutions waking up to its promise, the silver story may just be entering its most consequential chapter yet. Also read | Explained: Why gold beat Euro to become the world's second-largest reserve asset (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price surges as yellow metal rallies on Trump's Tehran evacuation call — here's why global chaos is shaking markets and boosting gold's safe-haven shine
Gold prices swing as Israel-Iran conflict rattles markets and delays Tehran's nuclear program- Gold prices swung sharply as the conflict between Israel and Iran deepened, keeping investors on edge. After briefly rising, spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,379.74 an ounce by 9:56 a.m. London time, reflecting growing uncertainty over geopolitical tensions and shifting demand for safe-haven assets. According to CNN , U.S. intelligence sources believe Israel's recent military strikes may have delayed Iran's nuclear ambitions by several months. That news, combined with President Donald Trump's remarks downplaying a ceasefire, has fueled market jitters and impacted gold's performance. Last week, gold surged nearly 4% after Israel launched military operations aimed at Iran's nuclear sites. The move sparked fears of a wider regional conflict, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold. However, those gains have since cooled, even as cross-border attacks persist. The yellow metal is still about $120 short of the all-time high it reached in April, yet it remains on track for its sixth consecutive monthly gain—the longest streak in over 20 years. Why is gold fluctuating despite escalating conflict? Traditionally, gold prices tend to rise during periods of geopolitical instability. But this time, the movement has been more muted. Carsten Menke, head of next generation research at Julius Baer Group Ltd., said the current response fits historical patterns. 'At first sight, gold's reaction may be surprising, considering the potential consequences of the conflict and also the typical skittishness of short-term traders,' Menke said. 'But a closer look suggests that it is in line with the historical pattern of such geopolitical shocks not lastingly lifting gold prices.' Gold price today: June 17 Spot Gold : $3,392 – $3,395 per ounce (Up ~0.3% on the day) Gold Futures (COMEX August delivery) : Around $3,410 per ounce What's driving today's gold prices? Geopolitical tensions President Donald Trump urged U.S. citizens to evacuate Tehran, citing rising threats amid the escalating Iran–Israel conflict. This has sparked a rush to safe-haven assets, with gold leading the pack. Federal Reserve anticipation Investors are awaiting Wednesday's Fed meeting for possible clues on interest rate direction. A dovish stance could support even higher gold prices. Market behavior Gold briefly dipped 1.3% on Monday after signs of de-escalation but rebounded as rhetoric intensified again. The $3,400–$3,408 range is seen as key technical resistance. A clean break above it may lead toward April's highs of $3,446–$3,452 . Is gold still a reliable safe haven amid global tensions? Despite the back-and-forth in price, gold continues to draw attention from investors wary of broader market risks. The ongoing Middle East conflict isn't the only concern—economic uncertainty tied to U.S. trade policy, particularly Trump's aggressive tariff stance, has added pressure. Gold's appeal lies in its ability to hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, and political chaos. Yet short-term traders seem less reactive this time, possibly expecting any direct impact from the Israel-Iran standoff to remain contained. Live Events How are other precious metals reacting? While gold slipped slightly, other metals saw varied movement. Silver and platinum registered modest gains, while palladium declined. This mixed performance suggests investors are reassessing their risk appetite rather than fleeing en masse to commodities. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index stayed flat, indicating that currency markets are also waiting for more definitive geopolitical developments before reacting. What role did Trump's comments play in gold's recent moves? President Donald Trump's comments, which downplayed any immediate ceasefire, briefly lifted demand for gold earlier this week. However, with no clear escalation or resolution in sight, traders are now adopting a more cautious approach. Trump's broader trade agenda and threats of renewed tariffs are also part of the backdrop influencing commodity markets. Investors are watching closely for any signs that these tensions could hurt global growth, which would further bolster the case for gold. Is gold still on track for a record-breaking month? Despite the recent dip, gold remains poised for its sixth straight monthly increase. If it holds, this would mark the best monthly run in over two decades. Prices are hovering close to $3,380 an ounce, still below the April peak but well above where they started the year. The combination of Middle East instability, global economic fears, and cautious central bank policies continues to support the metal's long-term trajectory—even if short-term swings persist. Gold's recent price swings highlight the delicate balance between fear-driven demand and market skepticism. With the Israel-Iran conflict simmering and no diplomatic breakthrough in sight, gold may continue to see choppy trading. Still, its longer-term upward trend reflects deep investor unease over the broader geopolitical and economic outlook. As always, gold remains a barometer of global risk—and right now, the signals are flashing uncertainty. What to watch next Fed's decision and inflation outlook Ongoing updates from the Middle East U.S. retail data and market reaction FAQs: Q1. Why are gold prices fluctuating during the Israel-Iran conflict? Gold prices react to geopolitical fears, but short-term traders are cautious amid uncertainty. Q2. Has Israel's strike affected Iran's nuclear program and gold rates? Yes, reports say it delayed Iran's program, influencing safe-haven buying like gold.
