Latest news with #CNEOS
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Asteroid's odds of hitting the Moon have now more than doubled
Earth is safe from asteroid 2024 YR4, but fresh looks at the space rock using Webb and other telescopes have now increased its chances of impacting the Moon. After a brief stint as the highest risk asteroid we know about, 2024 YR4 is now deemed harmless to Earth. In fact, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and the ESA's Near-Earth Objects Coordination Centre (NEOCC) now only give a very slim chance of any threat from it. That probability now sits at just 1 in 120,000, but in 2047, a full 15 years after the 2032 encounter that initially raised so many alarms. However, based on the newest telescopic observations of 2024 YR4, its December 22, 2032 flyby may be the last time it ever passes by our planet. The extreme sensitivity of the James Webb Space Telescope allowed astronomers to continue to observe the asteroid long after it moved beyond the capabilities of Earth-based telescopes. Using the data collected by Webb, scientists with CNEOS updated their calculations of 2024 YR4's orbital path. Back at the end of February, when NASA had ruled out any significant danger to Earth from the asteroid, they also determined there was a 1.7 per cent chance it would strike the Moon. The new data has now increased that probability to 4.3 per cent. That's more than double the initial chance of lunar impact. The latest probability of impact for asteroid 2024 YR4, as of June 3, 2025, at 4.3 per cent of striking the Moon on December 22, 2032. Along the top of the image is NASA's sequence of plots generated from Jan 27 through Feb 23 showing how the asteroid's closest approach to Earh changed as observations refined its orbit. (NASA CNEOS) A 4.3 per cent of impact still counts as a 95.7 per cent chance that it will miss the Moon. So, with it having no chance of hitting Earth on that date, 2024 YR4 could simply slip through lunar orbit with no effect at all — just a telescopic curiosity to observe as it passes by. Still, at an estimated 65-metres wide, when 2024 YR4 was still thought to be a threat to Earth, it was (unofficially) considered to be a 'city-killer' asteroid. It was highly unlikely to have hit anywhere inhabited. However, if it did, that size of asteroid would have caused extensive damage on a local level. For any city in the impact zone, the effects would have been catastrophic. An estimate of the size and shape of asteroid 2024 YR4 based on telescopic observations. (NOIRLab) For comparison, the 20-metre asteroid that exploded over Cheylabinsk on February 15, 2013 produced an airburst — a pressurized wave of air — that shattered windows across the city when it reached the ground. Tiny fragments of the asteroid rained down over the area, with the largest piece, roughly 60 cm wide and with a mass of around 300 kg, punching a hole in the frozen surface of nearby Lake Chebarkul. The airburst that would result from 65-metre 2024 YR4 exploding would be powerful enough to level buildings. While not large enough to produce a crater, the shattered asteroid would likely include several larger pieces that would cause further damage and injuries upon striking the ground. If 2024 YR4 does hit the Moon in 2032, with no atmosphere to slow it down, it would impact with full force, travelling at nearly 13 kilometres per second, or over 46,000 km/h. The Waning Gibbous phase of the Moon on the night of December 22, 2032. (NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio) If it strikes somewhere in the dark region of the surface, the impact will certainly be noticeable from Earth. It wouldn't be powerful enough to affect the Moon's orbit, or knock any significant pieces off the Moon. It would certainly leave behind a crater that an orbiting spacecraft (such as NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter) would be able to find, though. According to NASA, as of now, 2024 YR4 has moved beyond even Webb's ability to observe it, as it is now too close to the Sun. The next 'encounter' with the asteroid will be in 2028, with its closest pass at that time being around 20 times farther than the Moon. Telescopes should be able to find and track it, though, adding more to our knowledge of its orbit, and potentially locking down whether it will hit or miss the Moon when it returns four years later. (Thumbnail image was produced by the author, using photo-editing software, by adding a 3D computer model of asteroid 2024 YR4 to a background image of the Moon taken during NASA's Artemis 1 mission.) Click here to view the video
Yahoo
06-06-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Watch an asteroid the size of an aircraft carrier make a close pass of Earth on June 5
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. A potentially hazardous asteroid roughly the size of an aircraft carrier is due to pass within 2.8 million miles (3.5 million km) of Earth on June 5 and you can watch it happen live online. NASA and its partners have been tracking the potentially hazardous asteroid 2008 DG5 ever since its discovery in (you guessed it) 2008 by the Catalina Sky Survey. The Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) estimates it to have a diameter ranging between 1,049-2,296 ft (320-700 meters) - roughly the equivalent of the length of a Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carrier. The asteroid will make its closest approach to Earth at 7.59 p.m. ET (2359 GMT) on June 5, at which time it will pass 2,170,309 miles (3,492,787 kilometers) from our planet, over nine times the Earth-moon average orbital distance. At this range 2008 DG5 will be visible as a solitary point of light to powerful Earthbound telescopes. The Virtual Telescope Project will host a livestream of the flyby starting at 6 p.m. ET (2200 GMT) on June 5, featuring real-time views of 2008 DG5 captured by its suite of robotic telescopes. June 3 saw the project release an image of the asteroid captured from a distance of 2.2 million miles (3.6 million km) using the 17-inch PlaneWave telescope located in Manciano, Italy, as the asteroid cruised closer to Earth. 2008 DG5 can be picked out as a bright speck of light, with short star lines acting as a tell-tale sign of its movement against the static starfield beyond, created as the telescope tracked its position over a 120-second exposure. NASA classifies an asteroid as potentially hazardous based on a number of factors including its size and whether it will pass within 0.05 astronomical units of Earth - the equivalent of around 4,650,000 miles (7,480,000 km), according to the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Over 1,784 PHAs are being actively tracked by the CNEOS, none of which are predicted to strike Earth and cause widespread damage in the coming century.
Newsweek
05-06-2025
- Science
- Newsweek
NASA Tracking Three Asteroids Approaching Earth
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. NASA is monitoring three asteroids soaring past the Earth at about 8,000 to 15,000 miles per hour, the biggest of which measures around 1,300 feet in diameter. The largest space rock, known as "424482 (2008 DG5)," is due to zip past our planet at over 13,800 miles per hour later today. It is expected to come as close as 2.17 million miles from the Earth, according to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), A smaller asteroid known as "2025 LD," which is around 73 feet in diameter, zoomed past the Earth earlier today at over 15,000 miles per hour, according to the JPL's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS). The space rock came as close as 696,000 miles from the Earth. A third asteroid, known as "2025 KY4," measuring around 42 feet in diameter, also zipped past the Earth earlier today, reaching within 1.72 million miles of our planet. The asteroid soared past at over 8,000 miles per hour. Stock image: An illustration of asteroids floating around in space. Stock image: An illustration of asteroids floating around in space. Getty Asteroids—small, rocky masses left over from the formation of the solar system nearly 4.6 billion years ago—are found in the main asteroid belt, orbiting around the sun between the paths of Mars and Jupiter. In February, data from the CNEOS showed the impact probability of an asteroid known as "2024 YR4" in 2032 was at 3.1 percent. This was "the highest impact probability NASA has ever recorded for an object of this size or larger," the national space agency noted at the time. Further studies that month brought 2024 YR4's chance of Earth impact on December 22 in 2032 down to 0.004 percent. The data showed there is "no significant potential" for 2024 YR4 to "impact our planet for the next century" and "the range of possible locations the asteroid could be on Dec. 22, 2032, has moved farther away from the Earth," NASA said in a blog post on February 24. 2024 YR4 was measured to be about 200 feet across by NASA's James Webb Space Telescope, Andy Rivkin, an astronomer at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, noted in a NASA blog post on April 2. There is still a "very small chance," however, for 2024 YR4 to impact the moon on that date, and that probability is currently 1.7 percent, the space agency noted. The orbits of asteroids bring them within 120 million miles of the sun. Most near-Earth objects (NEOs) are asteroids that range in size from about 10 feet to nearly 25 miles across. "The majority of near-Earth objects have orbits that don't bring them very close to Earth, and therefore pose no risk of impact," NASA says. A small portion of NEOs—known as potentially hazardous asteroids—do merit closer attention. PHAs, which are around 460 feet in diameter, have orbits that bring them as close as 4.6 million miles of the Earth's orbit around the sun, NASA notes. Despite the number of PHAs in our solar system, none is likely to hit our planet any time soon. "The 'potentially hazardous' designation simply means over many centuries and millennia the asteroid's orbit may evolve into one that has a chance of impacting Earth. We do not assess these long-term, many-century possibilities of impact," Paul Chodas, manager of the CNEOS, previously told Newsweek. Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about asteroids? Let us know via science@
India Today
23-05-2025
- Science
- India Today
Asteroid with power of 1,000 nuclear bombs to come dangerously close to Earth
Asteroid 2003 MH4, a colossal space rock measuring approximately 335 meters in diameter—about the length of three football fields—will make a close approach to Earth on May 24, through space at a staggering 14 kilometers per second, this asteroid's size and velocity have drawn intense scrutiny from the global scientific community, even though there is no immediate threat to our Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and planetary defense teams are vigilantly tracking 2003 MH4's trajectory. The asteroid is set to pass at a distance of 6.68 million kilometers from Earth—roughly 17 times closer than the distance between the Earth and the Moon. While this might seem vast in everyday terms, astronomers consider such proximity significant, especially for an object of this 2003 MH4 is classified as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA), a designation reserved for space objects larger than 150 meters that come within 7.5 million kilometers of status does not imply an imminent collision but highlights the necessity for ongoing monitoring, as even slight changes in an asteroid's path—caused by gravitational interactions with planets or the subtle Yarkovsky effect from solar radiation—could alter its future asteroid's composition, density, and reflective properties are also under close examination, as these characteristics can influence its orbital behaviour and potential risk 2003 MH4 belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids, known for their Earth-crossing orbits, which can sometimes bring them uncomfortably close to our emphasise that while the likelihood of an impact from 2003 MH4 remains extremely low, the flyby serves as a stark reminder of the importance of planetary defense initiatives.A direct hit from an asteroid of this size could unleash energy equivalent to thousands of nuclear bombs, causing widespread devastation, fires, tsunamis, and potentially triggering a global 'impact winter'.
NDTV
23-05-2025
- Science
- NDTV
Gigantic Asteroid, The Size Of Eiffel Tower, To Zoom Past Earth This Weekend: NASA
A gigantic asteroid, roughly the height of the Eiffel Tower, is heading towards Earth for what astronomers are calling a "close approach". According to NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the object, named 387746 (2003 MH4), spans 335 metres wide (approximately 1,100 feet). It will fly past our planet on May 24, Saturday, at 4:07 pm IST (10:37 UTC). The asteroid is currently travelling at a speed of 30,060 kilometres per hour. Although it won't strike us, the gigantic asteroid has raised an eyebrow among scientists. Asteroid 2003 MH4 is from the Apollo family of asteroids, which are known to cross Earth's orbital path. Due to its orbit and proximity, it is classified as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA). Notably, PHAs are objects bigger than 140 metres and approach Earth within 7.5 million kilometres. According to NASA JPL, the asteroid will come within 6.68 million kilometres of Earth. While this may sound a long way off, in terms of space, it's close enough to be of concern. "This weekend's sighting is a warning, not a threat," noted NASA's Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the body tasked with tracking thousands of space rocks that could pose risks. To put things in perspective, despite its considerable distance, asteroid 2003 MH4 is classified as a near-Earth object (NEO), which requires careful monitoring. NASA's continuous tracking efforts ensure that we stay informed about any potential space threats. NASA's Commitment to Monitoring Near-Earth Objects NASA, in collaboration with various space agencies, uses a sophisticated network of telescopes and advanced computing systems to keep track of near-Earth objects. While most of these NEOs remain at a safe distance from Earth, those that come within 7.5 million kilometres and are over 460 feet (140 meters) in size receive increased attention. The Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at NASA is dedicated to closely monitoring these space rocks, assessing any risks they might pose. This vigilant observation is crucial for understanding and preparing for any potential cosmic hazards that could affect our planet.
