Latest news with #CMEFedWatchTool
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates Soon? One Official Thinks So.
Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller told CNBC that the Fed could cut interest rates as early as its next meeting. Waller said he didn't anticipate a spike in inflation from tariffs, and an interest rate cut at the next meeting could help stabilize the labor market. President Donald Trump has been critical of the Federal Reserve for not cutting rates, putting pressure on Chair Jerome Powell to the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more quickly than investors think. Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller told CNBC on Friday that he didn't believe inflation would rise significantly under President Donald Trump's tariffs on U.S. trading partners. Waller said the Fed could cut its key federal funds rate as early as its next meeting in late July. Fed officials have hesitated to cut the fed funds rate from higher-than-usual levels so far this year. They say they're waiting to see if retailers passing along the cost of Trump's tariffs to customers will reignite inflation. However, Waller pointed to lower-than-expected inflation data and other positive trends in economic growth such as a steady unemployment rate. 'I think we have room to bring [the fed funds rate] down, and then we can see what happens with inflation,' Waller said. Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve's policy committee held its influential interest rate at the same level it's been at since December. None of the 12 voters, including Waller, supported a cut. Projections released Wednesday indicated Fed officials may be split on what comes next. More than one-third of the committee forecast no rate cuts this year, while a similar number of members anticipate they'll cut two or more times. Three more Fed officials believed they wouldn't cut rates at all this year compared to the last time the committee published projections. Most investors believe the Federal Reserve will continue to hold interest rates at their current level next month. The CME FedWatch Tool, which projects the direction of interest rates based on trading of Fed funds futures, indicates investors are pricing in only a 15% chance the Fed will cut rates when it meets on July 30. Read the original article on Investopedia Sign in to access your portfolio
Evening Standard
4 days ago
- Business
- Evening Standard
FTSE 100 nudges up ahead of Fed decision following broadly expected CPI data
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, it is near-certain that the Fed will maintain rates at the 4.25%-4.50% range this week. The Fed held in each of the first three meetings this year. Its last cut was in December, a 25 basis point trim to the federal funds rate range.
Economic Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Gold slips ahead of Fed decision — but could surge soon as Middle East conflict and rate cuts loom
Gold prices dip ahead of Fed decision but strong chances of future rate cuts and rising Israel–Iran conflict tensions could push gold higher again. Here's why investors are eyeing gold now and what could drive it in 2025. Gold prices slipped slightly on Tuesday, June 18, 2025, as traders turned their focus to the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. But despite this minor pullback, experts believe gold could rally again soon as the Israel–Iran conflict continues and the U.S. economy shows signs that rate cuts may not be far off. Spot gold dipped around 0.2% to $3,383.17 per ounce, while gold futures in the U.S. fell 0.3% to $3,393.10 per ounce. That marked a slight pause in gold's recent upward trend, which has largely been driven by global tensions and fears of economic slowdown. Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,383.17 per ounce. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.3% to $3,393.10 per ounce. This drop follows a 1% gain earlier in the week due to Middle East tensions. Profit-taking by traders caused the short-term dip, despite overall bullish sentiment. The key reason for gold's dip is the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, scheduled for this week. Right now, the central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50%, but the bigger question is what comes next. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there's a 99.9% chance that the Fed will not change rates during this meeting. However, many analysts are betting on rate cuts starting later this year, especially as recent U.S. data shows signs of a slowing economy. For instance: Retail sales came in lower than expected. came in lower than expected. Housing data and industrial output also showed weakness. and also showed weakness. Unemployment claims have been ticking higher. When interest rates go down, gold tends to shine. That's because lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. If the Fed hints at future cuts, it could give gold prices a fresh boost. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% during this week's policy meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99.9% probability of no rate hike. Traders are now betting on rate cuts by September 2025 or earlier. Lower rates reduce the cost of holding gold, which doesn't pay interest. Slowing U.S. economic indicators include: Retail sales have weakened. Industrial production showed signs of cooling. Housing market momentum has slowed. Initial jobless claims have risen in recent weeks. Even though gold dipped slightly on Tuesday, it's still holding near strong levels thanks to ongoing geopolitical risks. The Israel–Iran conflict continues to escalate, with missile strikes and drone attacks reported almost daily over the past week. The U.S. has increased its military presence in the region, and the situation remains highly unstable. As a result, many investors continue to view gold as a safe-haven asset, especially when global tensions rise. Just earlier this week, gold jumped over 1% due to fears that the Middle East conflict could widen. Though some traders booked profits after that rally, the underlying support for gold remains firm as long as geopolitical uncertainty continues. Goldman Sachs expects: $3,700/oz by end of 2025 $4,000/oz by mid-2026 expects: Bullish drivers include: Record gold purchases by central banks, especially in Asia and the Middle East. Ongoing global economic uncertainty. Expected rate cuts that favor non-yielding assets like gold. Elevated oil prices, with WTI crude trading at $76–$77 per barrel , increasing inflation concerns. Despite Tuesday's modest dip, several major banks still see gold climbing much higher in the months ahead. According to Goldman Sachs, gold could reach $3,700 by the end of 2025 and even hit $4,000 by mid-2026. Why are analysts so bullish? Central banks, especially in Asia and the Middle East, are buying gold at record pace to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. Continued economic uncertainty and the possibility of a recession are driving demand. Expected interest rate cuts later in 2025 will make gold even more attractive to long-term investors. In addition, oil prices remain elevated, trading around $76 to $77 per barrel, which adds to inflation concerns and typically supports gold prices. If you're a U.S. investor keeping an eye on gold, now may be a time to stay alert. While short-term fluctuations will happen — especially around big events like Fed meetings — the bigger picture still points to strength in gold. The combination of Federal Reserve policy shifts, Middle East tensions, and ongoing economic uncertainty creates a landscape where gold can play a meaningful role in protecting wealth. Many investors may choose to look at gold ETFs, physical bullion, or even gold mining stocks to gain exposure, depending on their risk appetite and investment strategy. Short-term dips like this are common around Fed announcements. Many are using this pause as a buying opportunity, especially if rate cuts are on the horizon. Investment options include: Gold ETFs Physical gold (coins, bars) Gold mining stocks Gold remains a key hedge against inflation, geopolitical risk, and economic slowdowns.
Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold slips ahead of Fed decision — but could surge soon as Middle East conflict and rate cuts loom
Gold prices slipped slightly on Tuesday, June 18, 2025, as traders turned their focus to the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. But despite this minor pullback, experts believe gold could rally again soon as the Israel–Iran conflict continues and the U.S. economy shows signs that rate cuts may not be far off. Spot gold dipped around 0.2% to $3,383.17 per ounce , while gold futures in the U.S. fell 0.3% to $3,393.10 per ounce . That marked a slight pause in gold's recent upward trend, which has largely been driven by global tensions and fears of economic slowdown. What's happening with gold prices right now? Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,383.17 per ounce. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.3% to $3,393.10 per ounce. This drop follows a 1% gain earlier in the week due to Middle East tensions. Profit-taking by traders caused the short-term dip, despite overall bullish sentiment. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like War Thunder - Register now for free and play against over 75 Million real Players War Thunder Play Now Undo Why are investors watching the Fed so closely right now? The key reason for gold's dip is the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, scheduled for this week. Right now, the central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50%, but the bigger question is what comes next. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there's a 99.9% chance that the Fed will not change rates during this meeting. However, many analysts are betting on rate cuts starting later this year, especially as recent U.S. data shows signs of a slowing economy. Live Events For instance: Retail sales came in lower than expected. Housing data and industrial output also showed weakness. Unemployment claims have been ticking higher. When interest rates go down, gold tends to shine. That's because lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. If the Fed hints at future cuts, it could give gold prices a fresh boost. Why is the Fed decision so important for gold? The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% during this week's policy meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99.9% probability of no rate hike. Traders are now betting on rate cuts by September 2025 or earlier. Lower rates reduce the cost of holding gold, which doesn't pay interest. Slowing U.S. economic indicators include: Retail sales have weakened. Industrial production showed signs of cooling. Housing market momentum has slowed. Initial jobless claims have risen in recent weeks. How is the Israel–Iran conflict affecting gold prices? Even though gold dipped slightly on Tuesday, it's still holding near strong levels thanks to ongoing geopolitical risks. The Israel–Iran conflict continues to escalate, with missile strikes and drone attacks reported almost daily over the past week. The U.S. has increased its military presence in the region, and the situation remains highly unstable. As a result, many investors continue to view gold as a safe-haven asset, especially when global tensions rise. Just earlier this week, gold jumped over 1% due to fears that the Middle East conflict could widen. Though some traders booked profits after that rally, the underlying support for gold remains firm as long as geopolitical uncertainty continues. What are analysts forecasting for gold in 2025? Goldman Sachs expects: $3,700/oz by end of 2025 $4,000/oz by mid-2026 Bullish drivers include: Record gold purchases by central banks, especially in Asia and the Middle East. Ongoing global economic uncertainty. Expected rate cuts that favor non-yielding assets like gold. Elevated oil prices, with WTI crude trading at $76–$77 per barrel , increasing inflation concerns. Could gold still rise further in 2025? Despite Tuesday's modest dip, several major banks still see gold climbing much higher in the months ahead. According to Goldman Sachs , gold could reach $3,700 by the end of 2025 and even hit $4,000 by mid-2026 . Why are analysts so bullish? Central banks, especially in Asia and the Middle East, are buying gold at record pace to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. Continued economic uncertainty and the possibility of a recession are driving demand. Expected interest rate cuts later in 2025 will make gold even more attractive to long-term investors. In addition, oil prices remain elevated, trading around $76 to $77 per barrel, which adds to inflation concerns and typically supports gold prices. What does this mean for U.S. investors? If you're a U.S. investor keeping an eye on gold, now may be a time to stay alert. While short-term fluctuations will happen — especially around big events like Fed meetings — the bigger picture still points to strength in gold. The combination of Federal Reserve policy shifts, Middle East tensions, and ongoing economic uncertainty creates a landscape where gold can play a meaningful role in protecting wealth. Many investors may choose to look at gold ETFs, physical bullion, or even gold mining stocks to gain exposure, depending on their risk appetite and investment strategy. What should U.S. investors keep in mind? Short-term dips like this are common around Fed announcements. Many are using this pause as a buying opportunity, especially if rate cuts are on the horizon. Investment options include: Gold ETFs Physical gold (coins, bars) Gold mining stocks Gold remains a key hedge against inflation, geopolitical risk, and economic slowdowns.
CNBC
4 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Treasury yields little changed as investors anticipate Fed's rate decision
U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's rate policy decision and more insights on the economic impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs and escalating tensions in the Middle East. At 5:57 a.m. ET, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell one basis point to 4.381%, while the 2-year Treasury yield was lower by less than a basis point at 3.945%. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions. The Fed's interest rate decision will be announced at 2 p.m. ET. Traders are pricing in a 99.9% chance that the central bank will hold interest rates steady, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Federal Open Market Committee members forecast only two rate cuts this year. "A lot has happened since their last meeting in early May, including the dialling back of China tariffs, the Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating, as well as the significant escalation in the Middle East," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note. "So given that uncertainty and the potential for fresh inflationary spikes, they're widely expected to keep rates on hold again, and it means the focus will be on the dot plot for where they expect rates to go next." They added, "Our US economists think it'll only signal one rate cut this year, which would be a hawkish shift from March, when they still signalled two cuts. However, they think it's a close call, and they expect the Fed to mostly maintain existing signals about policy." Investors are also awaiting economic data, including housing starts for May and preliminary building permits. Weekly jobless claims will be released in the morning. The bond market will be closed on Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday.
