Latest news with #CGD
Time of India
13 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Crude oil price rise to increase import bill by $13–14 bn, widen CAD by 0.3% of GDP: ICRA
New Delhi: A $10 per barrel increase in average crude oil prices could raise India's net oil imports by $13–14 billion and widen the current account deficit (CAD) by 0.3 per cent of GDP, rating agency ICRA said in a report. The agency said that following the June 13 conflict escalation between Israel and Iran, crude prices rose sharply from $64–65 per barrel to $74–75 per barrel, raising concerns for crude- and gas-importing countries like India. India sources 45–50 per cent of its crude oil and nearly 54 per cent of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) from West Asia via the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). ICRA said that geopolitical tensions in the region have increased the risk to global energy trade, with any disruption at SoH potentially impacting about 20 per cent of global oil and 25 per cent of global LNG supplies. The agency has projected Brent crude oil prices to average $70–80 per barrel in FY26, with net oil imports expected at around $120 billion, compared with $123.4 billion in FY25. ICRA estimates the CAD to widen to $50–52 billion or 1.2–1.3 per cent of GDP in FY26, from 0.9 per cent in FY25. Marketing margins of oil marketing companies (OMCs) for petrol and diesel are likely to moderate to Rs 6–8 per litre in FY26 due to higher crude prices. Under-recoveries on subsidised liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) may increase to Rs 160 billion. While upstream companies may not see an immediate impact on their earnings at current crude prices, a prolonged surge could affect private investment and macroeconomic stability. ICRA also noted that natural gas prices are likely to rise in the upcoming reset in July 2025. The agency expects the Administered Pricing Mechanism (APM) gas price to revert to USD 6.75 per mmBtu from USD 6.5 per mmBtu. New well gas (NWG) prices are also estimated to increase by 10 per cent. India imports over 20 per cent of its global LNG from Qatar and UAE, with 85 per cent of their LNG exports passing through the SoH. Any extended disruption to shipping lanes could impact LNG supply and pricing in the domestic market. Gas-based power plants, currently operating at plant load factors of less than 20 per cent, are unlikely to see major changes unless domestic gas availability improves. Fertiliser companies may witness higher input costs and elevated subsidy needs, particularly for urea and ammonia. The report said that city gas distribution (CGD) companies and industrial consumers may also face higher spot LNG costs and shipping rates. ICRA further estimates that a 10 per cent increase in crude oil prices could lead to an 80–100 basis points increase in wholesale price index (WPI) inflation and a 20–30 basis points increase in consumer price index (CPI) inflation, depending on how much of the increase is passed on to end-users. India's GDP growth forecast of 6.2 per cent for FY26 could also be revised downward if crude oil prices remain elevated. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) April 2024 Monetary Policy Report estimated that a 10 per cent rise in crude oil prices over a baseline of USD 70 per barrel could reduce GDP growth by 15 basis points. ICRA said any extended disruption or closure of the SoH could impact India's LNG import availability and cost, increase domestic gas prices, and alter energy sector trade flows.
Time of India
13 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Crude oil price rise to increase import bill by $13–14 bn, widen CAD by 0.3% of GDP: ICRA
New Delhi: A $10 per barrel increase in average crude oil prices could raise India's net oil imports by $13–14 billion and widen the current account deficit (CAD) by 0.3 per cent of GDP, rating agency ICRA said in a report. The agency said that following the June 13 conflict escalation between Israel and Iran, crude prices rose sharply from $64–65 per barrel to $74–75 per barrel, raising concerns for crude- and gas-importing countries like India. India sources 45–50 per cent of its crude oil and nearly 54 per cent of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) from West Asia via the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). ICRA said that geopolitical tensions in the region have increased the risk to global energy trade, with any disruption at SoH potentially impacting about 20 per cent of global oil and 25 per cent of global LNG supplies. The agency has projected Brent crude oil prices to average $70–80 per barrel in FY26, with net oil imports expected at around $120 billion, compared with $123.4 billion in FY25. ICRA estimates the CAD to widen to $50–52 billion or 1.2–1.3 per cent of GDP in FY26, from 0.9 per cent in FY25. Marketing margins of oil marketing companies (OMCs) for petrol and diesel are likely to moderate to Rs 6–8 per litre in FY26 due to higher crude prices. Under-recoveries on subsidised liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) may increase to Rs 160 billion. While upstream companies may not see an immediate impact on their earnings at current crude prices, a prolonged surge could affect private investment and macroeconomic stability. ICRA also noted that natural gas prices are likely to rise in the upcoming reset in July 2025. The agency expects the Administered Pricing Mechanism (APM) gas price to revert to USD 6.75 per mmBtu from USD 6.5 per mmBtu. New well gas (NWG) prices are also estimated to increase by 10 per cent. India imports over 20 per cent of its global LNG from Qatar and UAE, with 85 per cent of their LNG exports passing through the SoH. Any extended disruption to shipping lanes could impact LNG supply and pricing in the domestic market. Gas-based power plants, currently operating at plant load factors of less than 20 per cent, are unlikely to see major changes unless domestic gas availability improves. Fertiliser companies may witness higher input costs and elevated subsidy needs, particularly for urea and ammonia. The report said that city gas distribution (CGD) companies and industrial consumers may also face higher spot LNG costs and shipping rates. ICRA further estimates that a 10 per cent increase in crude oil prices could lead to an 80–100 basis points increase in wholesale price index (WPI) inflation and a 20–30 basis points increase in consumer price index (CPI) inflation, depending on how much of the increase is passed on to end-users. India's GDP growth forecast of 6.2 per cent for FY26 could also be revised downward if crude oil prices remain elevated. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) April 2024 Monetary Policy Report estimated that a 10 per cent rise in crude oil prices over a baseline of USD 70 per barrel could reduce GDP growth by 15 basis points. ICRA said any extended disruption or closure of the SoH could impact India's LNG import availability and cost, increase domestic gas prices, and alter energy sector trade flows.
Edinburgh Live
20 hours ago
- Entertainment
- Edinburgh Live
Strictly Come Dancing bosses 'in talks' with Celebs Go Dating relationship expert
Our community members are treated to special offers, promotions and adverts from us and our partners. You can check out at any time. More info Strictly Come Dancing chiefs are reportedly eyeing up relationship guru Paul C Brunson for a spin on the upcoming series of the hit BBC dance contest. Despite the fact that the new season won't kick off until later in the year, there's already chatter about which celebs may be stepping onto the dance floor. Rumours suggest that relationship expert and television personality Paul could sashay his way into the line-up. Familiar to UK audiences from Celebs Go Dating (CGD) and Married At First Sight UK (MAFS UK), Paul has also partnered with Britain's Got Talent judge Amanda Holden on Netflix's reality series, Cheat: Unfinished Business. A source tipped The Sun off as to why the Strictly honchos are keen to enlist Paul, saying: "Paul would be the ideal tonic to the dark clouds over Strictly as he's clean-cut, very intelligent and has no scandals to worry about." Further details indicate that "they are now in discussion but he's met with producers a number of times," reports the Mirror, which has approached the BBC for comment. (Image: Matt Monfredi / Channel 4) It emerged earlier this week that the showrunners are courting Sir Mo Farah. He's described as a "genuine national treasure" whose presence could counter the recent negativity around Strictly. The producers see him as an asset saying his personality could banish the show's recent negative atmosphere. Recently, Strictly has had to navigate through some turbulent waters. Post the 2023 series, Amanda Abbington levelled serious claims against professional dancer Giovanni Pernice, accusing him of bullying. Amanda raised eyebrows with accusations of bullying, which saw Giovanni stepping back from the limelight amidst the uproar. In contrast, Giovanni celebrated a victory on the Italian version of Strictly before returning to the UK for more dance endeavours. (Image: NurPhoto, NurPhoto via Getty Images) At a similar time, Graziano Di Prima found himself dropped from Strictly. That summer, there was chatter about Graziano having possibly kicked and hit 27 year old Zara, allegations he vehemently rejects. He conceded that his "intense passion and determination to win might have affected my training regime." More recently, Wynne Evans found himself cut from the Strictly live tour due to his actions. Wynne discussed a tumultuous period during his stint on Strictly in an appearance on This Morning, expressing how the negative publicity had deeply impacted his mental wellbeing. "I was at my lowest ebb, I wanted to end my life. I would have if I hadn't been surrounded by people," he confided to the presenters of the programme. Strictly Come Dancing is available to watch on BBC iPlayer.
Daily Mirror
2 days ago
- Entertainment
- Daily Mirror
Married At First Sight star 'in talks to join Strictly Come Dancing'
Strictly Come Dancing bosses are reportedly looking to sign up a Celebs Go Dating and Married At First Sight UK expert to the show Strictly Come Dancing bosses are reportedly looking to sign up Celebs Go Dating and Married At First Sight expert Paul C Brunson for the upcoming series of the BBC dance competition. While the show doesn't return until later this year, there have already been rumours on who could be trying their hand on the dance floor. It has been claimed relationship expert and TV host Paul could be joining the show. The star became known to UK fans thanks to his appearances on CGD and MAFS UK, but recently starred alongside Britain's Got Talent judge Amanda Holden for Netflix's reality series, Cheat: Unfinished Business. READ MORE: 'Brilliant' air cooling fan that keeps homes cool during the heatwave slashed from £150 to £40 Speaking to The Sun about why bosses want to sign Paul onto the show, an insider claimed: "Paul would be the ideal tonic to the dark clouds over Strictly as he's clean-cut, very intelligent and has no scandals to worry about. 'They are now in discussion but he's met with producers a number of times." The Mirror have reached out to the BBC for comment. Earlier this week, the same publication claimed bosses want Sir Mo Farah on the show as he's a "genuine national treasure". His personality would provide the perfect tonic to the toxicity that's overshadowed Strictly. Bosses would love to sign him up but the talks are at a very early stage.' In recent times, Strictly Come Dancing dealt with numerous scandals. After 2023's series, Amanda Abbington accused professional dancer partner Giovanni Pernice of bullying. Amanda made a series of claims about bullying behaviour and Giovanni decided to take a break from the public eye following the scandal. Meanwhile, he recently won the Italian version of Strictly and has returned to the UK for a series of dance projects. Around the same time, Graziano Di Prima was axed from the show. But reports emerged over the summer claiming that the Italian dancer had kicked and hit Zara, 27, which he strongly denies. He later admitted that his "intense passion and determination to win might have affected my training regime." Most recently, Wynne Evans was axed from the Strictly live tour over his behaviour. Wynne appeared on This Morning recently to speak about his series of scandals while on the BBC show - and revealed that the negative attention had taken a severe toll on his mental health. "I was at my lowest ebb, I wanted to end my life. I would have if I hadn't been surrounded by people," he said to the TV show's hosts.
Egypt Independent
6 days ago
- Business
- Egypt Independent
The UK, Germany and Canada have slashed foreign aid this year, deepening damage done by US cuts, analysis shows
London CNN — Western countries have slashed foreign aid budgets this year and reductions will steepen in 2026, with the United States, United Kingdom, Germany and Canada cutting the most, according to a new analysis from the Center for Global Development (CGD). The aid cuts will mean 'significant losses' for many developing nations, according to the analysis from the DC-based think tank, shared exclusively with CNN. Ethiopia is projected to lose the most aid in nominal terms, with Jordan, Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic of Congo also hit particularly hard. Smaller nations will also be hammered by the reduction in foreign aid, with Lesotho, Micronesia and Eswatini each losing around 50 percent of their aid. 'It's setting fire to the bold ambitions to solve poverty and transform developing countries,' Lee Crawfurd, one of the authors of the report, told CNN. 'It's some of the poorest, most fragile places in the world that are going to be hardest hit.' The analysis looked at projections of bilateral aid – money provided directly to another country rather than routed through multilateral organizations such as United Nations agencies or the World Bank – for 2025 and 2026. The US is projected to cut the most, with a projected 56 percent reduction compared to levels two years ago. The Trump administration's gutting of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) earlier this year has already left a hole in many international aid budgets, and several other Western nations are following suit rather than filling the void. 'A big, big chunk of overall cuts in the next couple of years are going to be from the US pulling out, rather than other countries. But these other countries are making things worse,' said Crawfurd, a senior research fellow at the CGD. The UK aid cuts are estimated to represent a roughly 39 percent reduction compared to 2023 levels of spending. Meanwhile, Germany is cutting about 27 percent, Canada 25 percent and France 19 percent of their international aid budgets. The true level of aid cuts remains unclear, as the Trump administration's proposed budget and other government proposals are still making their way through legislatures. But some funding cuts are almost guaranteed. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced in February that his government would increase the UK's defense spending by cutting its aid budget to 0.3 percent of gross national income in 2027, its lowest level since 1999. Many organizations and aid workers have raised alarm about European governments pitting aid budgets against defense spending. 'Cutting the already lean aid budget is a false economy and will only increase division and amounts to a betrayal of the world's most vulnerable people,' said Halima Begum, head of Oxfam GB. 'It is a false dichotomy to pit international cooperation to tackle poverty against national security interests in order to avoid tax increases.' A sign for GIZ, Germany's international development agency, is seen in February 2017. Michael Gottschalk/Photothek/Getty Images Crawfurd said that bilateral aid is a 'really small part of government budgets' and the money for defense or security could be found elsewhere. 'It's a choice… it's a political choice,' he added. The think tank wrote in its analysis that 'one striking takeaway is that some countries are projected to lose large amounts of ODA (official development assistance) simply because of who their main donors are – while others are projected to lose very little' – a game of chance, with losses not matching up to the recipient country's needs. Yemen, for example, is projected to experience a 19 percent fall in its bilateral funding compared to 2023, while its 'comparable' neighbor country Somalia is projected to lose about 39 percent. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has also warned that multilateral aid cuts are threatening efforts to tackle 44 of the highest-priority, protracted humanitarian crises. As of April, only 11.9 percent of the funding for UN response plans had been covered. 'Every year, the UN has been helping more than 100 million people in the world as they go through the worst time of their lives in wars and disasters. But let's be clear: we won't reach the level of funding in 2025 that we've seen in previous years,' Anja Nitzsche, OCHA's chief of partnerships and resource mobilization told CNN in a statement. 'Vulnerable families are being left without food, clean water, healthcare, shelter or protection in places such as Sudan, Yemen, Ukraine, Myanmar and Afghanistan.' Minimizing the damage The CGD is urging Western donors to reallocate aid to the poorest countries to try to 'ensure that resources are directed to populations in greatest need.' Western countries also need to improve coordination to mitigate further damage, especially as they are withdrawing from countries receiving aid, the think tank said. In some countries, the cuts will change who the largest donor is, which 'can lead to major shifts in what gets funded and how,' according to the CGD. For example, Portugal will likely overtake the US in aid to Angola, and Japan is projected to overtake France in Egypt. 'A new lead donor may not continue the same programs' or may take time to get up and running, according to the analysis. Giving a larger share of aid to multilateral organizations can also help improve international cooperation and cut down on duplication of aid efforts. 'Coordination is an ongoing challenge,' Crawfurd told CNN. 'The easiest way to do that is just to fund big multilateral funds like the World Bank.'
